The Baseball Notebook

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Twin Titles For Hollywood?

The city of Los Angeles is celebrating, as the Lakers brought home a championship last night. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door of doing it in baseball the last two years and are tied for first again in 2010. So let's take a look at Joe Torre's crew and see what their long-term chances on as they make a visit to Boston tonight. A Los Angeles team visiting the Hub this weekend is just what this series, already filled with storylines about Manny's return, and also Torre's first trip back to Fenway since he managed the Yankees, needed to juice it up.

Since the Dodgers play in a park that favors the pitcher, that obviously affects our view of the stats. Given that, I see a team that is relatively dependent on offense rather than arms to win. Manny is still putting up numbers, but he's no longer the straw that stirs the drink (with apologies to
Reggie Jackson for taking his line). You have to go to the other corner of the outfield to find the new man in L.A. Andre Ethier is the go-to guy here like Kobe Bryant is on the basketball court. Ethier is on base over 40 percent of the time and slugs .619, a good number in any park and you wonder what he'd do in a true hitters' haven.

Ethier and Ramirez get plenty of help, especially when it comes to getting on base. James Loney, Russell Martin, Casey Blake and Blake DeWitt are all consistent. As is whomever's playing shortstop, be it Rafael Furcal or Jamey Carroll. And while Matt Kemp's OBP is poor, he hits for good power--a .459 slugging percentage is good anywhere and it's certainly good playing at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles is not going to have problems scoring enough runs to win.

Will they get the pitching? It's possible, but it needs some improvement. Clayton Kershaw is solid at the top, but still young. Hiroki Kuroda is a steady
#2. Chad Billingsley has struggled a bit--nothing overtly terrible, but now he'll miss a couple weeks with a strained groin. Torre is left to turn to unknowns like John Ely and Carlos Montaserios, who gets the ball tonight in the Fens. The bullpen is similarly top-heavy, with Jonathan Broxton being fantastic at closer, but the setup crew being awful beyond Hong-Chih Kuo. It's frankly amazing to me that in a tough division, Torre still has his team tied for the lead. It reminds me of his Yankee team in 2005 when he patched together a rotation around Mike Mussina and the castoffs, with Mariano backing everything up at the end.

Los Angeles really needs to make a deal for more starting pitching if they want to win the whole thing. Given owner Frank McCourt's divorce problems, adding payroll isn't likely, meaning someone like Cliff Lee isn't likely. That means Torre needs everyone on staff to kick it up a notch. He's a good enough manager to scrape
into the playoffs with the current staff, but come October they to come up aces.

Philly's Pitching Problems

As the Phillies have slumped lately in fallen behind Atlanta and New York in the NL East, a lot of attention has gone to the failure of the bats, highlighted by three straight shutouts at the hands of the Mets. That the two-time defending NL champs have struggled at the plate is no secret, but the offensive problems are getting disproportionate attention. Philly has the kind of offense that can snap out of it in a big way and help may be on the way as soon as this weekend if Jimmy Rollins comes off the disabled list. Where Charlie Manuel has a bigger long-term concern is whether he has enough pitching to get his team across the finish line again.

Roy Halladay has been fantastic, and Cole Hamels has been acceptable, but the next three spots in the rotation are all very weak. Joe Blanton has been awful, and even with last night's solid win in the Bronx,
Jamie Moyer has been below average, as has Kyle Kendrick. Across the board, Manuel needs his starters to step it up. Hamels needs to join Halladay as a real ace. Moyer and Kendrick need to became above average #3s. And Blanton needs to get his ERA below 7, lest I be accused of going overboard on expectations.

The bullpen has been even worse, with seven blown saves, although Brad Lidge's return from the DL will hopefully address that. Lidge has closed his first four chances with a 2.00 ERA before getting hurt, so if he's back into form, the Phils at least have the ninth inning taken care of. Jose Contreras has been a pleasant surprise, with a 1.31 ERA, so this may be a case of a bullpen just needing a little time to get the right people into their roles. If that's the case, relief pitching won't be a problem the rest of the way.

Overall, I see Philadelphia making a surge and re-taking this division, although Atlanta is not going quietly
and we'll have to see if the Mets look to make a midseason upgrade. The Phils have been hit by injuries, particularly to Rollins and Lidge and that dark cloud is being lifted. They can also look for better offense from Shane Victorino (.313 OBP) and Ryan Howard will undoubtedly have a stretch where he'll singlehandedly carry the offense. The key will be getting the pitching improvements outlined above, and I believe the odds say they will do it.

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The Mets have been able to surpass the Phillies in the standings in large part because of the play of David Wright, who leads the pack among National League third basemen. With a .380 OBP, and a .526 slugging percentage while playing in pitcher-friendly Citi Field, Wright merits an edge over Cincinnati's Scott Rolen and Washington's Ryan Zimmerman. Wright has more ABs than Zimmerman, and while Rolen deserves a big hat-tip for his role in lifting the Reds into a tie for first place,
he does play in a good hitter's park.

Others to keep an eye on the rest of the eye are San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval, the best in the league last year. He hasn't really kicked into gear this year, although this is another one who hits in less-than-ideal conditions. And Casey McGahee is a rising star in Milwaukee who's not far from joining the elite.

Boston Battles Back

My apologies to Notebook readers for the brief delay in posting. I was traveling and didn't have the Internet access I anticipated. The next two days we'll get down to business by looking at the two teams the Notebook picked for the World Series, but would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today--Boston & Philadelphia. We'll also look at the All-Star races at third base. Today's focus will be the Red Sox and the AL hot corner.

After a terrible start that threatened Boston with a quick burial, the Red Sox have steadily righted the ship. Though they have the twin powers of baseball, Tampa and New York, setting the pace in the AL East, Terry Francona's club is 38-28 and within striking distance at four games. This has been a direct result of key offensive players finding their equilibrium. David Ortiz and Victor Martinez are hitting the ball and have pulled their numbers up, each slugging over .500. They are part of a Big Five that hit for power and get on base at very high rates. It may surprise observers to learn that Dustin Pedroia isn't in that group, though his offense is hardly poor. But when you look at the production given by Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre and J.D. Drew, along with the aforementioned two hitters, Pedroia is definitely the sixth-best offensive threat. Which shows the depth of this lineup. An oft-commented irony is that the offense was supposed to be the weak point in the new run prevention era of Boston baseball, but that has hardly been the case. The Red Sox keep ringing up the runs, even with Jacoby Ellsbury still out.

The problems with the Boston pitching staff have been as oft-commented as the surprising strength of the offense. And it is no exaggeration. Josh Beckett was awful before going on the DL. John Lackey has struggled to get in rhythm and still sits on a 4.54 ERA. Only Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz have pitched well, with Bucholz having already won nine games and sporting a dazzling 2.67 ERA, considering where he pitches and who he pitches against. The bullpen has its strengths--Daniel Bard and Manny Delcarmen are doing well in setup and Jonathan Papelbon has closed 14 of 15 chances. But Ramon Ramirez and Hideki Okajima have been disappointing, while Papelbon's ERA is high--at least for him--at 2.77.

Overall though, the Red Sox have little to complain about. Despite a poor start, they're in thick of it and they have plenty of reasons to hope things will get better--from healthy returns by Beckett & Ellsbury to improvement by Lackey. For those of us who either root for them or picked them to win it all (or both, as is the case here), there's reason to be nervous, but no reason to back down.

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Third base in the American League is also a position dominated by the trio of AL East powers. And like the playoff race, it's marked by a surge coming out of Boston to join the contenders in the Bronx and in Tropicana. Adrian Beltre is dialed in and is posting superior numbers to Alex Rodriguez in both OBP and slugging. But Evan Longoria is superior to both, and as such merits the Notebook vote. I would also be gravely remiss if we did not point out the work of Texas' Michael Young, who is virtually dead even with A-Rod in production and the career body of work he's produced suggests he'll outpace Beltre before it's all over. Young has long been one of the underappreciated players in the league, at least apart from baseball junkies and with his team possibly headed for October, it could be the year he gets his due on the broader stage.

Signs On San Diego

I closed yesterday's post by saying we'd eschew the usual team review and All-Star analysis in favor of commentary on interleague play. Upon further review, I'm going to eschew the eschewing, and save editorial commentary for a special 10-part Notebook series that will run from June 28 through July 11 while I'm traveling in Ireland. So we'll drop in on the surprise contender in SoCal today.

San Diego keeps hanging around. While they've been overtaken in the NL West, that's more about Los Angeles being obscenely hot than any fade from the Padres. San Diego is sitting at 35-25 and leads the wild-card race as we start interleague play today. It's a very straightforward team--they pitch great, they can't hit, and both are eminently sustainable for the long haul. The offense is 14th in runs scored, with similar rankings in both OBP and slugging. The pitching
leads the league in ERA, as well as its component parts in keeping runners off base and preventing power. And when you look at individual performance, there's not a lot of guys way over their head or underperforming their potential.

As expected, Adrian Gonzalez leads the way on offense, with a .392 OPB and a .514 slugging keyed by 13 home runs. What might he do if he played in Yankee Stadium with its short rightfield porch? Or even a place like Philadelphia, that's more conducive to power hitters? Or Fenway Park, where he could pepper the Wall with doubles? This was supposed to be the year we found out, as it was considered a virtual certainty that Gonzalez would be shipped off to a big-market contender, but the team's surprising contention throws that into doubt.

Nick Hundley at catcher's been a bit of a pleasant surprise, with a .382/.462 line, but beyond that no one is producing, and no one can really be expected too. David Eckstein's
well past his prime. And if you're anticipating a summer hot streak from Will Venable, Chase Headley or Jerry Hairston, you're alone on that bandwagon. So the San Diego offense is not likely to move up. But on the positive side, there's no one in that top-ranked pitching staff that's a lock to fall back to earth either. Jon Garland's 2.81 ERA is certainly above his recent norms, but considering the pitcher's haven Petco Park is, it can't be said to be a complete shock. Clayton Richard and Mat Latos are having solid years, as is Will LeBlanc. The bullpen, as has always been the case with the better San Diego teams of this decade, is excellent with a good core of setup guys paving the way for Heath Bell, who's closing 85 percent of his opportunities with a 1.33 ERA.

Overall, San Diego's prospects still suggest a fallback is likely. The pitchers--mainly Latos and LeBlanc--are likelier to taper off then the hitters are to pick it up. And even if
everything continues to hold steady, pitching can get you in the mix, but you need to hit more than the Padres do to take the next step. That's just not very probable and the division they're in is a good one.

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In yesterday's review of National League shortstops, I gave away that Derek Jeter was still the choice in the American League. Even in a down year, at least thus far, the Yankee captain still sets the pace in a position that's a long way from the days when the young Jeter, young Nomar Garciaparra in Boston and then-shortstop Alex Rodriguez in Seattle and Texas set the tone for all of baseball. Today, Jeter is challenged only by Marco Scutaro with the Red Sox, a nice scrappy player who can get on base, but far from a star, and Elvis Andrus, who is lacking in power. The state of AL shortstops is further underlined by the fact that Toronto's Alex Gonzalez, long renowned as a good-field, no-hit, has the best slugging
percentage of the entire group. Gonzalez' woeful .296 OBP eliminates him from All-Star consideration though. Jason Bartlett has come down to earth in Tampa after a great year in '09 and players like Alexi Ramirez in Chicago and Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera have never quite lived up to the flashes they occassionally showed.

Jeter deserves a lot of credit for much his defense has improved towards the end of his career. I was one of his critics who used to tell anyone who would listen (a very small demographic) that his range was awful, and while he was a hustler and a leader, he was just not a good defender. That began to change after Joe Girardi arrived, and Jeter's improved D in 2009 was an underrated reason for why the Yankees won the World Series and I felt should've earned him the MVP award, given that Joe Mauer had missed a month on the DL. I make no apologies for being among the Captain's critics, but when the numbers say things have
changed, it's time for everyone to acknowledge it. It's why Jeter is still the best, even in a year where his bat hasn't really kicked into gear.

See you Sunday night to recap Week 10.

Florida Lacks Depth

The Florida Marlins are on a tough run right now, having dropped three in a row at Citi Field in New York over the weekend, then coming back and losing a heartbreaker at Philadelphia on Tuesday night (rained out last night). The Marlins have been passed by Washington in the NL East standings and have slipped three games under .500. But in spite of being in last place, they are in striking distance, 5.5 games back of Atlanta. Can they make a push in the summer months? Let's take a look.

Florida's biggest weakness is heavy dependence on a few producers at the very top. They're already a rare team in that they rely on their middle infield to carry the offense, and Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are again getting the job done. The latter has 13 home runs and both are complete offensive players. Cody Ross is also having a good year in right field, although the
club will have a key decision to make regarding the outfield. They just brought up highly touted rightfielder Michael Stanton, their answer to Stephen Strasburg and after Stanton debuted with three hits in Philadelphia, he will surely be in the lineup regularly. Ideally, it would be preferable to move Ross to center, but defensively that's probably not realistic. So the guess here is he bumps Chris Maybin from the left field job. Whatever Stanton can do his first year, it won't take much to be an improvement.

Beyond this, third baseman Jorge Cantu hits for good power, but could up the OBP a bit. Across the diamond at first, Gaby Sanchez isn't bad, but needs a little uptick across the board if the offense is going to survive the summer months. There is just not a lot of depth in this lineup. The pitching staff is similar, where Josh Johnson is lights out (6-2, 2.10) and in any league or season that didn't have Ubaldo Jiminez, he'd be a Cy Young
frontrunner. Anibal Sanchez--who along with Ramirez was acquired from Boston in a deal for Josh Beckett prior to the 2006 season--is shaping up to be a solid #2, sitting on 5-3, 3.18. But someone among Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco and Nate Robertson has to step it up. And the bullpen--stop me if you've heard this before--is good, but not deep. Leo Nunez is closing out games, with Clay Hensley, Brian Sanches and Reynel Pinto setting up. But Pinto's got a hip problem. He may return this weekend, and if he does all is well. If he doesn't, it's a big dropoff to the next arm on the ladder.

Florida's got a nice team and the possiblities for contention are there. The most likely avenue for improvement comes in the starting pitching, where any of Nolasco, Volstad and Robertson are capable of stepping it up. But this isn't a team that's going to take on a contract at the trade deadline while the Braves, Phils and Mets all will if necessary, and the lack
of depth will wear them down.

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One of the most underreported phenomenas in baseball today is the complete collapse of talent at the shortstop position. It's worse in the American League, where only Derek Jeter plays at an All-Star level (yes, I realize I gave away my choice before the complete examination is done, but is there really any doubt?), but the National League suffers the same problem. Only Ramirez and Colorado's Troy Tulowitizki look like All-Stars. Only Stephen Drew in Arizona is even a respectable middle-class player. The league has been hurt by Jose Reyes' sudden fall-off, along with a poor year from Ryan Theriot. Beyond that, the best you can look at is Orlando Cabrera in Cincinnati, a has-been, and Alcides Escobar in Milwaukee, perhaps a never-will-be, if I might borrow a line from Major League.

In addition to being far and away the best two hitters at the position, Ramirez and Tulowitzki are also near
the top in defense, sparing the need to look further down the offensive ladder for a competent defender at a key spot. Their numbers are almost dead even--in fact in OBP, they are even, at least at this writing on Thursday. Tulowitzki has a slight edge in slugging and on defense. But he also plays in the more hitter-friendly park and with more support around him. For that reason, I'm giving the slightest of nods to Hanley as the NL All-Star at this spot, in a race close enough that it could swing back and forth daily between now and when the final votes have to be cast. It might be a weak position, but it's an exciting race.

Tomorrow we'll eschew the usual team and All-Star analysis and take a look at the whole concept of interleague play as another round starts up.

Pedroia & Cano

No position captures the essence of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry better than that of second base. You have two outstanding players, in Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia, closely matched, who manage to overshadow the rest of the league, even those worthy of being in their class. In my “About” page on the right hand side, I come clean and say I’m biased towards the Red Sox. Not because I believe that who I root for is incredibly important in anyone’s baseball life, but I believe that sportswriters and bloggers should have to disclose their biases up front, in the same way politicians have to make public where they get their campaign money. So given the need for full disclosure, I know I’ll be hamstrung in making a case that Pedroia deserves to be the All-Star second baseman this year, but I’m going to give it my best shot anyway.

When I reviewed NL second baseman (The Chasing of Chase in the Recent Posts section on the right), I stated that I reviewed defense much more heavily at this spot, along with shortstop and centerfield, then I would at the corners. If it was all about offense, there’d be no doubt. Cano is blowing the rest of the field away with an outstanding year at the plate. Pedroia isn’t even the principal challenger on offense, that honor going to Baltimore’s Ty Wiggington, who’s filled in admirably for the injured Brian Roberts—the latter being a player who’s gotten far too little mention in these discussions in previous years when he’s been healthy But both Cano and Wiggington are defensive liabilities. Cano’s zone rating, a stat at ESPN.com that measures range is back to its low levels, after a nice uptick last year. Pedroia is near the top of the American League, with his only competition being pure glove artists. Just like in the National League, where I felt Kelly Johnson was the most balanced package, I believe the same to be true with Pedroia in the AL.

When it comes to the charge of bias, I would only argue that I love Utley and the Phils and still opted for another contender. So while I am biased, I’m not applying a different standard to Cano just because he’s a Yankee. And as Yankee players go, Cano isn’t even on my dislike radar, that space being mostly occupied by Mark Texieria, A.J. Burnett and A-Rod.

With Roberts on the disabled list, the rest of the American League field doesn’t offer a lot of competition. Ian Kinsler’s defense is also a little shaky and has power has disappeared. Honorable mention goes to Orlando Hudson, now in Minnesota, for the way he’s getting on base. But for the most part, this is a two-man race, replete with completely different statistical profiles and all the emotional bias that comes with a Yankee-Red Sox debate.

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Detroit is 30-27 coming into Wednesday night’s games and trails Minnesota by 3.5 games in the AL Central, a margin that’s been fairly stable for a couple weeks now. A closer look at Detroit suggests they will stay in contention all year and be right on the edge of pushing over the top, perhaps even as close as last year, when only an epic 12-inning loss in a one-game playoff cost them the division title to the Twins.

The Tigers are not making the most of their offensive opportunities, having managed to take #4 American League rankings in both on-base percentage and slugging and turn it into a #9 spot in runs scored. As long as the #4s hold, the runs will come, but there is legitimate question as to how long those can hold. Will Austin Jackson maintain a .361 OBP for the year, given he’s already sliding downward? Will Brennan Boesch slug .621? In the tough American League, can Jim Leyland continue to field a lineup with three obvious dead spots in Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird and whoever’s playing shortstop? Speaking of the latter, who is playing shortstop? Adam Everett was designated for assignment, and Daniel Worth has been called up.

Jim Leyland can turn to one of the best bullpens he’s had in his tenure at Detroit. Joel Zumaya is a deadly force again, and he’s joined by Phil Coke and Eddie Bonine in giving the skipper a lights-out setup team. Jose Valverde has been unhittable at closer. It’s getting to these guys that’s going to be important. Justin Verlander’s having a nice year. He is a possibility to kick it up a notch, but it’s not something to be counted on, nor is it necessary. Leyland needs Rick Porcello to return to the world of sub-5.00 ERAs and be the pitcher he was a year ago, for Max Scherzer to be the pitcher all the scouts said he could be in the minor leagues and Armando Galaragga to build off his should-have-been perfect game and be reliably consistent.

Overall, this is a very interesting team and it’s easy to see a scenario for it coming together. Get a Verlander-Galaragga-Porcello rotation in gear, a dominant bullpen and an offense led by veterans Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon, filled in with just enough supporting players to survive in a pitcher’s park. If everything falls into place, they could win the division and have a real shot at sneaking into the World Series again. But things generally don’t all click at once, and if anything comes up short, Detroit will be what they are now—a good team, a well-managed team, a tough team—but one that just misses the playoffs.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at the Florida Marlins and National League shortstops, as Hanley Ramirez comes center stage.

Week 10: What To Watch

One game starts early this week, though it's more a wrap-up of Week 9, as the Cubs & Pirates are playing a makeup game today. Week 10 starts for real tonight. It's going to be an exciting week, as interleague play comes back again for the weekend with a lot of rivalry games and a couple more among serious World Series contenders. But when it comes down to playing the most meaningful games, the place the Notebook is watching most closely right now is Florida.

The Marlins are starting to see their grip crumble in the NL East, sitting at 5.5 back. Last week the Nationals took a big step backward and fell seven out. This could be the week Florida joins them and leaves the race to the three potential heavyweights ahead of them. The Marlins start the week off on the road at Philly and then have their interleague rivalry showdown at Tampa Bay on the weekend. Already with three teams to catch, falling 7-8 games off the pace will be a big problem for the Marlins and having to play on the road against the potential World Series teams puts one in an early make-or-break week.

That's the key storyline as far as prospective contenders go. Elsewhere, they may not have sung New York, New York at the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, but those unhappy about the lost tradition can sing it at Camden Yards. The Orioles start the week by hosting the Yankees and end it hosting the Mets. It's a good opportunity for both visitors to make some hay in the standings. It's a good opportunity for the Birds to make a stand against teams the hometown would love to see them beat. What it's not so good for is those of us who drive the Beltway home from work in the Baltimore area and will no doubt have a wave of New York tourists choosing this week to make their summer vacation to the Baltimore-Washington area.

The top of the NL West and the NL Central square off this week. St. Louis takes on the Dodgers out in L.A, while San Francisco visits Cincinnati. The Angels and A's hook up in a four-game set. And I suppose I'm obligated to mention Stephen Strasburgh's much-hyped debut against Pittsburgh tomorrow night at home. I hate to cite this one, as its unfair to heap that kind of expectation on a young pitcher. But there's no denying that he's already achieved the heretofore impossible--making a Washington-Pittsburgh game the centerpiece of the baseball world for one night.

No post on Tuesday. See you back here on Wednesday when we take a closer look at Detroit, as they try and keep pace with Minnesota, and our All-Star tour goes to American League second basemen.

How 'Bout Houston?

It happens quietly throughout the season. A team with no business winning games steps up and plays spoiler for teams hoping to climb the ladder. The Houston Astros played that role this week, as they won five of seven games over the Nationals & Cubs. Washington opened the week in the middle of a free-for-all in the NL East. They end it seven games out. Chicago was a team the Notebook predicted to be headed for a summer surge (a prediction not being altered BTW). The ‘Stros took two of three from the Cubbies and left the latter eight back of St. Louis & Cincinnati as the Cards get ready to play on ESPN tonight.

The right bounces of the ball played a role in Houston’s success. They were outscored 35-33 in the seven games, even as they racked up the wins. They won with power, doubling up the opposition in home runs (8-4) and also putting the ball in play—only 35 strikeouts for the week compared to 57 for the Washington/Chicago tandem. Carlos Lee hit two of the long balls, including a big three-run shot today as they took the rubber match in the Cub series. Lance Berkman busted out in a big way, slugging .548 and centerfielder Michael Bourn was similarly productive. Pedro Feliz was a threat for both contact and muscle, and on the mound Felipe Paulino pitched two outstanding games. It all added up to a solid week in Houston, even as Roy Oswalt had a rough go of it. It turned into the kind of week that gives wanna-be contenders nightmares and sends their fans through the roof. Houston gets a chance to play June spoiler again this week, although the competition gradually upgrades—it starts in Colorado and ends in the Bronx with an interleague series against the Yankees.

As long as we’re in the subject of fans going through the roof, that’s exactly where the maddening Mets have to be sending their diehards. Since sweeping the Phils in the early part of Week 8, NYM has lost three straight series. They haven’t been swept in any of them, going 3-6 overall, so it’s not getting the same kind of attention their high-profile wins over Philadelphia, and just prior to that the Yankees, did. But it’s taking its toll and even though they are right in the thick of it at 3.5 back, they let Atlanta be the one to surpass the slumping Phillies. In spite of a fantastic week by David Wright in Week 9, the Mets lost ground because Jason Bay lost his power stroke as quickly as he seemed to have found it, and Jose Reyes again disappeared. This is a club searching for consistency and an identity in a year where the NL East might be more winnable than any of us thought at the outset.

Atlanta may have fallen in 11 innings today in Los Angeles, but it was still a week to remember for Bobby Cox's club. They opened the week by sweeping the Phils and vaulting themselves into first place,and still picked up a road split against the Dodgers, who were equally red-hot. Atlanta's pitching rotation is strong top-to-bottom and Cox seems to have them jelling into the playoff club many of us thought they would be.

With the horses continuing to jostle for position as we settle into June (sorry for the equestrian analogy, but the Belmont Stakes and Drosselmeyer is still on my mind—and whatever happened to favorite Ice Box?. He was slower out of the gate than the Red Sox and as lethargic as the Cubs), here’s a few other teams that had weeks worthy of taking note—

*Detroit had a chance to close the gap on Minnesota, as the Twins lost four of six on the west coast. But the Tigers coughed up two of three in Kansas City, leaving one to wonder if they really recovered emotionally from the unfortunate dramatics surrounding Armando Galaragga’s perfect game that wasn’t.

*Nice week for Texas, as they take a series from the White Sox and then hit the Rays for a couple more Ws. It was enough to keep them in first, as the Angels quietly put together a strong week of their own against KC and Seattle. Managing alone won’t cover for the loss of Kendry Morales, but leave it to Mike Scoscia to make sure his team didn’t wallow in the doldrums over the loss of the slugger when an opportunity spot on the schedule presented itself. LAA and Oakland are hanging in at a game back.

*Is the cup half full or half empty in Toronto? Back on Monday when we defined what we were watching this week (See Recent Posts on right), it was the Jays’ chance to show they belonged, as they took on Tampa and New York. Did the 3-3 showing (lost to the Rays, beat the Yanks) mean they’re on a par? Or did only getting a split at home spell problems for down the road? If there were only two weeks left in the season I’d be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. But with 17 weeks still to go, I still feel this clubs’ flaws in the area of getting men on base are too serious to overcome in an unforgiving division.

*Notable stat my wife saw here on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network and shared with me—if games ended after six innings, the Baltimore Orioles would be tied for first in the AL East. You read that correctly. Those who believe the bullpen is the sole problem with the Birds aren’t imagining things. Given that pens can come together as quickly as they come apart, don’t be surprised if this Oriole team starts causing a lot of problems for contenders this season and becomes one themselves quicker than the 16-41 record would suggest.

See you tomorrow for a preview of Week 10.

Firing Trembley The Right Step

Dave Trembley is out in Baltimore and the early reports--from the local press here in Charm City where I live and nationally, with Fox's Ken Rosenthal leading the way, have stepped in to say that Trembley was not the problem and this his firing was more an act of mercy, in removing him from the line of fire.

I disagree. Let me start by saying that I like Dave Trembley. He's obviously a nice guy, and he's got a good reputation as a teacher. But to say the 2010 Orioles were destined to be a hopeless case just ignores reality. I lived in Pittsburgh for eight years. I grew up in Milwaukee and saw the teams they put forth in the late 1990s and the first half of the '00s. I'm very familiar with hopeless baseball, having played it myself in my truncated career as a junior high rightfielder. And this Baltimore Oriole team is not hopeless.

The hopeless teams in Pittsburgh didn't trot out players like Nick Markakis. Or bring up prospects like Adam Jones. Or Matt Wieters. Or have veterans like Brian Roberts, who is expected to be back off the DL soon. In recent years, the Orioles have trotted out talent like an in-his-prime Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. I never saw players like those come through Pittsburgh, nor in the Lost Years in Milwaukee.

I generally like Rosenthal's columns, but his defense of Trembley was particularly incoherent. He first said the problem was not the manager, but instead that the team lacked fire, lacked urgency and wasn't properly developed. Huh? Isn't this stuff the manager is supposed to fix? Next thing you know, he'll say it's not the manager, it's just that the lineup is poorly conceived. I would further add that while no one could turn the Oriole bullpen into Lou Pinellia's Nasty Boys of the 1990 Cincinnati Reds, there was no excuse for the complete meltdowns this team has suffered repeatedly. Effective managers can find a way to mix and match and at least keep a halfway steady ship. The bullpen would be a liability no matter who managed, but it was not preordainted for it to be THIS bad.

There was one part of Rosenthal's column that hit it on the head. Mostly directed at the front office, it applies to the manager on the field as well. Stop making excuses. I know they don't have Yankee money. But in the late 1990s, when the O's reached the ALCS in 1996-97, they had the second-highest payroll in the game. That's right, higher than the Red Sox, higher than the Angels, higher than the Cubs, higher than the Mets, higher than the Dodgers. Baltimore's still a baseball town that wants to believe and Peter Angelos still has a lucrative TV deal with MASN. They have the resources to compete.

And whomever the new permanent on-field manager ends up being (Juan Samuel is the interim) has to drill that same can-do attitude into the players. That they have the talent to compete. Earlier this week I was out with my wife and mother-in-law, both huge fans as we talked about the team, and I said that the first thing the new skipper should do is get in Nick Markakis' face with a simple message--Yes, you're a good player. If you want to play in October, you need to be a great player. Start at the top and let that sort of uncompromising demand for excellence trickle down. These are young players--talented to be sure, but with no real concept of the accountability it takes to win games at the major league level.

Perhaps the best advice can be found in the movie Bull Durham. The minor league team struggling at 8-16. Veteran cast off catcher Kevin Costner arrived in the clubhouse. The manager lamented that he didn't know what to do with the kids. Costner calmly said, "Scare 'em. They're kids. Scare 'em." So the skipper threw the bats into the shower, chased the players in there and uncorked an ass-chewing. Whether the winning streak that inevitably follows in a Hollywood script will happen in Baltimore is another question. But it would be a good place to start. And that will be the first task of whomever the long-term manager is going to be.

Trembley is a nice guy. But, to paraphrase Philip Tattaglia talking about Don Vito Corleone, he was too modest. He's absolutely better off not being in a job that calls for something he doesn't have. But let's not pretend the team won't be better off as well.