The Baseball Notebook

The Chasing Of Chase

Chase Utley is generally considered the best second baseman in the National League, indeed in all of baseball. He's a great ballplayer and worthy of the accolades. Even with his recent slump, which mirrors that of his team, he's still having another very strong year at the plate. But the last couple seasons his defensive numbers have slid. This position, along with shortstop and centerfield, are too important to base on offense alone, and consequently I can't give Chase the nod for the Notebook's All-Star vote as we sit here in early June.

Finding fault is one thing, but finding a replacement is another. Dan Uggla is very solid, but he has the same profile--good hitter, weak afield. He's a poor man's Utley, which is nothing to be ashamed of, but if that's what I'm looking for I'll drink real Coke instead of the generic brand. Other contenders who are
strong defensively have very weak bats, and I don't want to lose sight of the fact that position players are more likely to win a game with their bat than with their glove. But there is one who's offering a more complete package. Kelly Johnson in Arizona is actually slugging higher than Utley right now (.537 to .503). While he's 29 points behind in OBP (.387 to .358), Johnson is still an offensive asset and he rates substantially above average in the field. For these reasons I give him the nod at second base.

The aforementioned three players are the class of a relatively weak field. Martin Prado is a rising star in Atlanta, and isn't far from breaking into the elite himself. Brandon Phillips in Cincinnati is a credible and consistent contributor, but it takes a big leap to get from where he's at to All-Star status. Beyond that, there's not a lot. David Eckstein is well past his prime. Luis Castillo teases occassionally, but never really steps it up to the highest level. Blake DeWitt's shown flashes with the bat in Los Angeles and Akinori Iwamura has collapsed in Pittsburgh. National League second basemen are very strong at the top, but there's a huge dropoff into the middle class.

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The Colorado Rockies haven't set the world on fire off their playoff run of last season, but at 28-25, they're right in the mix of a tough four-team race in the NL West. The Rocks trail San Diego by four games and hot on the heels of the Giants and Dodgers. For a team that dug themselves a twelve-game hole early last season, this has to feel like they're sitting pretty. And they are similar to the Cubs, whom we looked at yesterday (See Recent Posts). The Notebook's favorite indicators, while not nearly as strong as with the Cubbies, do look good for Colorado.

My indicator profile starts with a basic look at how a team ranks in runs scored and ERA, and then how they do in OBP and slugging, both in terms of what they produce and what they allow. If the OBP and slugging don't reasonably correlate to the runs being scored or allowed, I consider that a crude indicator of likely change. Put simply, if you're getting runners on base and driving the ball, you are going to score. If you're stopping teams from doing the same, you'll keep them off the scoreboard. Temporary fluctuations can be caused by a run of bad luck, but it's not likely to go for a full season.

In the case of Colorado, they are a respectable seventh in runs scored, while ranking even better in OBP (6th) and slugging (5th). That suggests slight improvement ahead. The ERA is an excellent fourth and the fact that the pitchers ability to stop people from getting on base and hit for power correlates to that, suggests the staff is in position to remain strong.

The flaw in projecting based solely on this, is that it assumes everything will hold static.
Therefore we also look at individuals who may be above or below their potential. In the case of Colorado, it looks fairly stable. Miguel Olivo's probably a little bit over his head, but that can be offset if Todd Helton hits for a little more power (.371 slugging through Thursday) or Seth Smith can get on base a little more (.322 OBP). The pitching staff is where it will get interesting. This is a very top-heavy rotation right now. Ubaldo Jiminez, with an 0.78 ERA and the NL MVP if we had to pick today, is carrying a staff that has two starters with ERAs over 6, and Aaron Cook on 4.97. Somebody has to step up when Jiminez comes back to merely Cy Young level rather than superhuman. Jhoulys Chaci is pitching well right now and Jorge de La Rosa might be back from the DL the middle of this month. I think the Rockies can bank on getting continued good starting pitching, albeit a little more balanced than is the case right now.

In the bullpen the story is the opposite. They're balanced, without a clear stopper. Franklin Morales was in the role before an early injury moved Manny Corpas into closing duty. Both get the job done, though neither inspires fear. Joe Beimel has been lights-out, although his history suggests someone a little less dazzling will eventually emerge. Matt Belisle and Randy Flores can also be turned to with confidence.

On balance, Colorado is right on the verge of the playoffs, and needs just a little improvement. Everything is lined up for them to get just that.

We'll see you back here on Sunday night to recap Week 9.

Armando & Instant Replay

The unfortunate drama of Armando Galaragga's could-have-been perfect game has been settled. Bud Selig declined to overturn the call of umpire Jim Joyce, in spite of Joyce's admission that was mistake was beyond a doubt. Overall, I think all the particulars handled themselves well in this situation. Joyce was humble enough to admit he'd missed the call. Galaragga was incredibly gracious in letting it go. Tiger manager Jim Leyland called on the fans to applaud the umpiring crew at today's getaway game (they didn't, but they were civil according to media reports). And Selig deserves a small bit of credit for not rushing to overturn the call.

I understand the desire to see the call overturned and justice given. But how far do you go in repealing bad calls? If this gets overturned, do St. Louis fans get a review of Don Denkinger's blown call that started the winning rally in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, a game where St. Louis was in position to clinch (I realize I dated myself by not only citing a call from 25 years ago, but by the fact I'm old enough to remember plays in a World Series involving Kansas City--believe it or not, they were a dynasty in those years). How about a blown call on a double play in Game 1 of the 1999 ALCS that clearly cost the Red Sox what would have been a key road win against the Yankees? The Yanks won the series in five games...but Boston had Pedro Martinez waiting in reserve for Game 7, at a time well before the Yanks became his "daddy" and he was the most dominant pitcher in the game. What if the Sox would have had a chance to play a Game 6 and force that showdown? Who knows. (Yes, I realize I gave away my pro-Red Sox bias there). How about the 1996 ALCS when the Orioles were clearly robbed of a win that would've put them up 2-0 on the Yankees when a fan reached into the field of play and grabbed Derek Jeter's fly ball out and turned it into a game-winning home run (Yes, I realize I gave myself away as one who lives in Baltimore and is trying to suck up to his wife). But I hope the point is clear--while last night's game was a tempting target because of its open-and-shut nature, Selig would have been opening a huge can of worms if he overturned the call.

One thing I don't think needs to be worried about is Galaragga's place in history. Let's be honest--because of this, when you think of perfect games in 2010, are you going to think of Dallas Braden, Roy Halladay or this one? Yeah, I think this one will get more play among fan memories and in flashback shows on the MLB Network. Jim Joyce, set your consicence at ease.

What's not opening a can of worms is to visit the idea of instant replay in baseball. I'm a supporter in general, but there are a few drawbacks. Unlike the NFL, there's a huge inequity in how many television resources are at each baseball game. Networks like YES (Yankees), NESN (Red Sox), MASN (Orioles & Nationals), SNY (Mets), the Comcast station that carries the Phils, WTBS (Braves) and WGN (Cubs) just to name a few are well ahead of places like Fox Sports Midwest or Fox Sports Pittsburgh when it comes to having cameras on site. Games the heavyweight networks are going to televise are going to get more replay angles than will a game involving, say the A's-Rangers, that also has big bearing on the overall picture. Furthemore, cameras are controlled by the home team, inviting an obvious problem if a homer cameraman decides to withold a crucial angle. Such a scenario did happen with the Philadelphia Flyers, and resulted in a cameraman's suspension, lest one think I'm being overly conspiratorial here. And even if I'm not, baseball can't afford the appearance of impropriety, given both the perception and reality that it's already overly tilted toward the big markets.

That's the downside and it is a real one. But I guess I have to believe that somehow it can be worked out and safeguards put into place, so I'm not prepared to give up on replay because of it. As to other concerns, I am not bothered by replay slowing the game up. I watch Red Sox games and Jonathan Papelbon must think there's a point to milking the clock, as he takes his sweet time between pitches. Enforcing rules on time between pitches and hitters stepping in and out, and then re-investing that time to 3-4 replays per game is a worthwhile tradeoff. I also believe that everything should be reviewable. Even balls and strikes. Why not? Sure, it's a judgement call, but what ump's judgement isn't going to be better by having replay at his disposal. Adopt the NFL system and give each manager a couple challenges per game. Who's to say his best call to challenge isn't a check swing or a pitch just on or off the corner?

Which brings me to my final point. I insist that the challenge flag used in the NFL be a part of any instant replay system. Why? It's become one of the most exciting moments in a football game. The call is blown. The crowd is angry, hungry for a challenge. And then the red flag dramatically appears on the field, creating a huge reaction from the fans. It's fun. And that's something too often lost in these replay debates. Proponents make themselves out like modern-day Dorothy Days, reformers on a quest to fix an unjust world. It's just a game. It's just a bad call. We can fix it, so let's do it. But let's make sure it stays fun.

Tomorrow we'll take a closer look at the Rockies, and our All-Star stop will focus on National League second basemen.

The Coming Chicago Surge

The Chicago Cubs are 24-29. They're 6.5 games back of NL Central co-leaders St. Louis & Cincinnati. They're only two games ahead of Milwaukee and Pittsburgh and are closer to the bottom of their division than they are to the top. But, to paraphrase the Wizard of Oz, pay no attention to that incompetent team that's occupied Wrigley Field for April and May. Because the Cubs have a summer surge ahead of them. Here's why:

*Even if they play exactly as they have for the first 8+ weeks, there will be a natural improvement. They rank 13th in the NL in runs scored, in spite of being ninth in both OBP and slugging. They rank 10th in ERA in spite of being 7th in keeping runners off base and 8th in power prevention. This strongly suggests to me that the right hits haven't been falling for Pinellia's crew, while they have for the opposition.

*You can further expect the team's offensive numbers to improve. The only positive surprise in this offense is the slugging percentages of Mike Fontenot and Marlon Byrd. Otherwise, good years from Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and the underappreciated and patient Kosuke Fukodome can be expected to maintain throughout the summer. On the other hand, how much longer is Aramis Ramirez going to be completely incompetent at the plate? How much longer will Derek Lee be an albatross rather than an asset? Will Ryan Theriot spend an entire year without getting on base consistently? I don't believe so. So an offense that's already due to see its luck improve is also a solid bet to see its concrete performance improve.

*The starting pitching is solid top to bottom. While Carlos Silva's phenomenal 7-0 start won't continue, nor will the 1-5 of Ted Lilly. If you look at the top four starters--Silva, Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells, you have guys with ERAs in the 3s. The wins have fallen for Silva early. Whether they continue to do so for him is not really relevant to the overall team picture. They're going to keep falling for somebody. Meanwhile, Carlos Zambrano returns to the rotation, but if he doesn't pitch well, Pinellia can go right back to Tom Gorzelanny, whose 3.66 ERA fits the profile of the rest of the rotation.

*The bullpen has the pieces to be strong throughout the summer. The horrid performance of Bob Howry has held them back early, but strong work by Sean Marshall and James Russell can make up for it, as Pinellia fits everything into place. Carlos Marmol has blown a couple saves, but is sitting on a buck-44 ERA. And either Zambrano or Gorzelanny add further depth.

This isn't the opinion of a Cubs partisan. Hey, I'm originally from Milwaukee and if my hometown friends read this, I won't be welcomed back anytime soon. But the indicators all say it's going to be a hot time on the North Side this summer.

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Derek Lee might be struggling, but there's quite a few NL first baseman who would be worthy choices to be in Anaheim come July. Let's look at the contenders..

There's no doubt Albert Pujols would be the choice and I'm not going to be the one to argue. With a .431 OBP and a .566 slugging, 2010 is another banner year for the Cardinal star. But three others have a valid case to make and the challengers are led up by Joey Votto in Cincinnati. Not far behind is Adrian Gonzalez in San Diego and Adam Dunn in Washington. Votto's power exceeds that of Pujols and while Gonzalez' slugging is below .500, we do have to remember he hits in Petco Park and in a lineup where no sane pitcher would ever feed him anything to hit. Dunn belongs towards the top of the list, but not at the top. Overall, while I wouldn't argue with Pujols, I'd pick Votto at this point because he doesn't have Matt Holliday protecting him. And the Cincy offense, without the benefit of a Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia trifecta in the rotation, is much more significant to their team success.

Three more relative surprises are having nice years. Troy Glaus has been scorching hot in May and the first few days of June, lifting the Braves into first place. Adam LaRoche is having a good year in obscurity in Pittsburgh and Aubrey Huff seems to have re-found the batting stroke that made him so productive in Baltimore in 2008. At the next level down, we find Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman and Todd Helton. Each are strong on OBP and low on power. That's a crude one-sentence portrait, because Fielder and Berkman's power is merely a little disappointing, while Helton's is non-existent . But when it comes to disappointments, none match up to Chicago's Lee, LAD's James Loney and even Ryan Howard in Philadelphia. Howard's numbers of .336/.450 aren't terrible, but for a guy who just inked a fat new contract they are way below expectations.

Youk, Tex Or Look To The Midwest?

It was at the office last summer and the conversation revolved around a simple question—Youk or Texieria? As in, was Kevin Youkilis from Boston or Mark Texieria from New York the best first baseman in the American League. I experienced two conflicting emotions. The first was the Red Sox fan in me ready to shout that it was no contest, easily Youk. The second was the native Midwesterner in me, ready to shout at my Eastern-bred colleagues that lo and behold, they do actually play baseball west of the Bronx. The battle for the All-Star nod at the position this year bears me out on both counts. Texieria, runner-up in the MVP voting a year ago, is struggling badly while Youkilis is having another outstanding year in the Hub. But both are trumped by the shining stars in the Midwest, as Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera set the pace.

Morneau is having nothing short of a monster season and if we had to vote today, it’d be hard not to give him his second MVP award. He’s on base 48.9% of the time. He’s slugging .687. His team is in first place. This is Pujols-type performance. Cabrera isn’t far behind, at .421 and .658 respectively, as he works in tandem with Magglio Ordonez to keep the offense afloat in a park that’s not kind to hitters. Youkilis ranks ahead of Cabrera in getting on base, but behind both sluggers in power production. It seems to me that the AL first base spot has to rank a very clear 1-2-3 with a definite dropoff before you get to #4.

Which is not to say that the upper middle class is doing poorly. Paul Konerko’s having a fine year on the South Side, as is Billy Butler in Kansas City. They would rank a clear 4-5 respectively, hitting for both average and power. Daric Barton slots in behind them. The Oakland first baseman gets on base, but the power—while good—is not outstanding for this position. One area of credit he can claim is that there’s really no one else in the Oakland lineup that pitchers have to be worried about. If he can nudge the slugging percentage past .500, that caveat could move him up the list.

The AL East has the three big disappointments, with Texieria leading up a group that includes Carlos Pena in Tampa and Lyle Overbay in Toronto. Texieria’s almost certain to pull out of it. The latter two probably will, but I wouldn’t rate it a certainty.

Honorable mention goes to Kendry Morales of the Angels. He wasn’t in position to be the pick at this spot, but with 11 home runs, he was clearly in the group that included Konerko, Butler and Barton and certainly had the talent to move further up in the weeks ahead before his freak injury over the weekend. But he’s gone until at least mid-September.

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Morales provides a good segueway to our team spotlight today as we hone in on LAA. The Angels are 26-28 going into today’s games. The mediocre record only has them 2.5 games behind both Oakland and Texas in the AL West. So there’s plenty of time to fix the problems and the bar they have to reach isn’t high. Let’s see what’s wrong.

It starts with pitching. LAA’s 11th in the league in ERA and it really should be worse. They rank 13th in both allowing runners on base and allowing power. Joe Saunders has been a disappointment, as has Joel Piniero, although the problems of a guy who had success in the National League (in St. Louis) switching over to the AL are predictable now. Steve Kazmir is a disaster, at 3-5 with a 6.34 ERA. Only Ervin Santana and Jeff Weaver have been good, and neither one has been ace material. So you have a rotation that’s getting bad outings a majority of the time and no real stopper.

The bullpen is worse. While Fernando Rodney has made a good transition back to the setup role he used to occupy before a brief stint as Detroit’s closer, the rest of the pen starts fires rather than stops them. Whether it’s Matt Palmer, Kyle Jepsen, Jason Bulger or Scot Shields, it amounts to a problem for Mike Scoscia. And closer Brian Fuentes? Blown one-third of his save opps with an ERA of 4.97.

Offensively, the Halos sit in the middle of the league at seventh in runs scored. Here too though, fate has been kind to them, as they rank lower in both OBP and slugging. The Angels are particularly poor at getting on base, with only Bobby Abreu really effective. The power’s a little better. Even with Morales out, Tori Hunter and Mike Napoli have real pop and the team should get Jeff Mathis back from a wrist injury next week. Mathis had been off to a great start with the bat and Scoscia badly needs him to re-find that form ASAP.

For a franchise that mastered the art of “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in”, the lack of consistent runners on base is disconcerting Hideki Matsui has been a big disappointment. Howie Kendrick really needs to pick it up. Pitching-wise, they can probably bank on Saunders improving, but the bullpen probably needs help from the outside. I admire Mike Scoscia as much as any manager in the game, but he’s got a lot of headaches on his hands. The weakness of the division can still save him, but the overall performance profile suggests they need significant improvement just to stay where they are, and even more to actually win the West for the fourth straight year.

Week 9: What To Watch

If Toronto wants to show they can have staying power in this year's playoff race, Week 9 is their chance to step up and prove it. Tampa Bay and New York both come to the Rogers Centre. The Jays are right now 4.5 back of the Rays, and only a game of off New York's pace for the wild-card, while they sit one game ahead of Boston. So far, Toronto has not played well against Boston and they need these games on their homefield for both intangible reason of confidence and the more important tangible reason of keeping up in the standings. Toronto's fortunes this week are easily the most important story in baseball to be paying attention to.

In the National League, the East and Central have showcase series to kick the week off. Atlanta has closed to within a half-game of Philadelphia and take over the lead starting today in Turner Field. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is now sitting atop the Central by a single game over St. Louis. The Cardinals are coming off winning a weekend series in Wrigley and looking to recapture their April mojo. In both divisions, keep an eye on what happens right after the big series. Atlanta has to go to Los Angeles for the weekend, and in the Central, the Cubs are lurking. At this time last week, the Notebook said Week 8 was a big one for Chicago, with six games against the Dodgers and Cardinals, that they could be buried if they didn't play well. While they lost two of three to St. Loo, they took the series from LAD and kept themselves alive. When you think of how poorly the Cubbies have played in the first eight weeks, it's amazing they are only six out of the lead and five off the wild-card. Even though this week begins a nine-game road trip, the fact they play Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee and succession suggest they could start inching their way up as the teams in front of them tear each other out. It's opportunity time on the North Side.

Tampa Bay and Texas have each started to struggle lately, with the Rangers slipping a half-game behind Oakland in the Weste and the Rays have seen their lead over the rest of East melt away even when the Yankees and Jays aren't playing all that well (5-5 in their last 10 in each case). The Rays & Rangers play this weekend, and each will be tested early. We've noted Tampa's trip north of the border, and the White Sox, fresh off a series win in Tampa get to host Texas.

Minnesota is coming off a very impressive sweep in Texas and their lead on Detroit is sitting at 3.5 games. The schedule for the Twins isn't imposing this week, but West Coast swings are still vulnerable spots. They visit Seattle and Oakland, while the Tigers are home vs. Cleveland then at Kansas City. Let's see if the Tigers can slice into the lead a bit by Sunday night.

The Notebook's off tomorrow. Then on Wednesday, the impact of Kendry Morales' freak injury will be a prominent theme--we'll look more closely at LAA to see what's left, as well as the All-Star race among American League first basemen.

Halladay Weekend In Philly

With the Phillies’ offense in a slump reaching shocking proportions, Roy Halladay solved the problem the way a stopper does. He got his run and made it stand up against Florida on Saturday, and then threw the season’s second perfect game in a 1-0 win. Overall though, Philly’s week can be summed by this. In the entire week, the Phils scored four times. In one hockey game on Saturday night, the Flyers scored five times. And the Phillies gave up ground in the NL East while the Flyers still lost Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago.

The Phillies are hearing hard footsteps coming from the Braves and Mets. Atlanta has closed to within a half-game, coming off a week in which they took a series from Florida and swept Pittsburgh. Martin Prado and Melky Cabrera were on base consistently, while Jason Heyward came up big, as the team now prepares to meet up with Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Mets spun three straight shutouts against the Phils, before falling in a weekend series in Milwaukee. Still, New York’s 4-2 week moved them past struggling the Marlins and Nationals and into third place. They did what they needed to do, and their stars played like stars. Jose Reyes and Jason Bay hit well and Johan Santana pitched two great games.

One team that didn’t come anywhere close to doing what they needed to do was Arizona. The Notebook outlined this week is critical for the Diamondbacks, as they faced Colorado and San Francisco. Similar to the Mets, they had a chance to start climbing the ladder. They went 0-6. The team on-base percentage was .249. The team slugging percentage was .272. Dan Haren’s start went poorly. Billy Buckner had two starts that were atrocious. And the Diamondbacks ended the week buried 10 ½ games back, their season all but over. Oh, and the Suns and dropped a heartbreaker on Thursday to the Lakers, setting the stage for their elimination from the NBA playoffs. Not the greatest week to live in the Phoenix area.

In the American League, Oakland showed that sometimes just being consistent can reap good rewards. The A’s took two of three from Baltimore and again from Detroit (they finish a four-game set with the Tigers on Memorial Day). Ben Sheets had two good starts and Andrew Bailey closed out three saves, but on its face, it wasn’t a week that captured anyone’s imagination. But Texas slumped against a manageable schedule. They split two games with Kansas City and have dropped the first two at home to Minnesota. If they lose on Sunday Night Baseball tonight, the A’s will be a half-game up. And both the A’s and Rangers are surely willing to let the Angels’ have Saturday’s dramatic walkoff win in exchange for LAA losing Kendry Morales to a broken leg during the celebration.

On a closing note, I hope no celebrations change as a result of the Morales injury. We’ve seen countless celebrations at the plate and it’s one of the great joys of baseball. It was a fluke thing. Let it go. See you tomorrow to preview Week 9.

The AL East's Fourth Wheel

Just as they did last year, Toronto has gotten off to a nice start and threatened to throw a monkey wrench into the AL East mix. Last year they faded quickly and were not a threat in the second half of the season. They sit at 27-22 today, tied with Boston for third place, only two games back of the Yankees for the wild-card spot. Can they stay in it all year? Let's take a look.

Toronto has perhaps the most bizarre offensive profile I've ever seen. They're tied with Boston, not just in the standings, but for the league lead in runs scored. That's not the bizarre part. They've gotten there by ranking dead last in on-base percentage, but being #1 in slugging percentage. I have never seen that kind of discrepancy before, and certainly not seen it actually work in terms of scoring runs. However, I think it's seriously unlikely the Blue Jays can continue to score unless that OBP improves drastically.

Alex Gonzales is the poster child for this offense, with a woeful .296 OBP and a solid .516 slugging, keyed by 10 home runs. Gonzalez's history suggests the power is more likely to disappear than the ability to get on base is to increase. Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay are struggling in both areas and are better candidates for an upgrade. Adam Lind has hit seven home runs, but his low totals in both categories suggest those are about the only seven moments he's had all year.

The big leader of the power surge is third baseman Jose Bautista. Not even expected to start in spring training, he's mashed 15 home runs and is churning on out OBP on top of it. A great turnaround story, but how much longer can Bautista keep hitting like this? John Buck is giving the Jays real power behind the plate. Like Gonzalez, his OBP is low. And like Gonzalez, his history suggests decline in the immediate future. The hopes for the offense over the long haul are going to be built on Vernon Wells, enjoying a comeback year after a mysterious disappearance for the last three years. Wells is hitting for both power and with consistency and surely has Toronto glad they didn't give up on him. Overall though, while the power and OBP are likely to draw closer together, I see it coming more as the former coming down than the latter going up.

That places the burden of keeping Toronto in contention on the pitching staff. Shawn Marcum's return from the elbow problems that cost him the last two years has been an unqualified success. He's 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and as long he's healthy that should continue. Overall, while the Jays are only 8th in ERA, they rank sixth in keeping runners off base and third in power prevention. That suggests to me that simply maintaining current performance should result in a decent uptick as luck evens out. I don't see any individual arms pitching way over their head. Ricky Romero's 3.42 ERA may go up, but it's even more likely that Dana Eveland's 6.45 ERA will come down, or he'll be replaced by someone who will bring it down. The bullpen has usually been pretty respectable in the setup area and that's the case again in 2010. Kevin Gregg is a respectable closer, although in many respects he's symbolic of his team--he's not as good as Rivera, Papelbon or the emerging Soriano, and those are the guys closing for teams Toronto has to beat. Overall, the Jays look headed for a slippage as the power starts to run out. Not as drastic as last year, so long as the pitching stays healthy, but in the unforgiveable world of AL East baseball, enough to make them a .500 team.

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One of the main arguments for the designated hitter is that it extends the career of aging players and that's the case with the American League's two best this year. Vlad Guerrero, after losing production both at the plate and in the field in his final years in Anaheim, is having a big year as the Texas DH. Jim Thome has made a living at this position for a few years now, and is doing it again in Minnesota. Of the two, Thome's been slightly more effective at getting on base, while Guerrero has a bigger edge in power. I lean Guerrero at this point in the season, although it's very close. The two players begin a head-to-head series tonight as the Twins visit the Rangers and they'll be in ESPN's Sunday night showcase.

David Ortiz fits the same DH mold as Guerrero and Thome, and after an awful start, he's rounding into form in May. He's part of a group of three that hit for power, but need to improve their on-base percentages. Baltimore's Luke Scott falls in this category, as does Kansas City's Jose Guillen. On the reverse side is Travis Hafner, who's back to being on the bases, but needs his power stroke back.

And finally we come to two vets who appear to have hit the end of the line. New York fans were frustrated with the Yankees let World Series MVP Hideki Matsui walk to Anaheim, but Matsui's early numbers suggests Brian Cashman's decision was justified. While Matsui may still rebound, it takes a huge leap of faith to think the same applies to Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle, a future Hall of Famer that's seeing the end in sight.

We'll see you Sunday night to recap Week 8.

Can Oakland Get Offensive?

Here in my hometown of Baltimore, the Oakland A's are in town and there was little reason to suspect that it would be the contending Oakland A's when the schedule was first released. Yet that's exactly what Oakland is, with last night's win moving them to 24-23, just two games back of AL West-leading Texas. Let's see if expecting them to keep in it the rest of the way is feasible.

Like the proto-type Oakland playoff teams at the turn of the 21st century, the 2010 model is built on pitching. The A's rank 4th in the American League in ERA and are even better when it comes to keeping runners off base. Dallas Braden's perfect game against the Rays is the showcase moment, but the A's are getting quality starting pitching Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. They've got Brett Anderson back and he's given them four strong starts. But the loss of Justin Duscherer to
a season-ending hip injury, after he was sitting on a 2.35 ERA after his first five starts, is a heavy, heavy blow. The starting rotation is still decidedly a strength, but other areas of the team will have to pick up. While the bullpen is good, it's not deep, and that could wear on this team through the long summer months. One thing that could help is if Ben Sheets starts to pitch better and stays healthy. His history suggests he'll do the former, but not the latter. I would anticipate that after 3-4 good starts in a row, something will put him on the disabled list.

It's the offense that really has to step it up. The rank ninth in runs scored right now, but the lack of power is striking. Using a .450 slugging percentage is the baseline of being a legitimate threat to either hit it out or hit the alleys consistently, Oakland has not a single power threat in its lineup. Only first baseman Daric Barton and rightfielder Ryan Sweeney get on base
with any regularity. It's frankly amazing the A's have gotten themselves up to #9 in runs scored with the holes in this offense. Two-thirds of the lineup is below a .300 OBP, an absolutely awful statistic.

While the prospects of improving the attack internally exist, it requires a big leap of faith. Jack Cust could fulfill even a fraction of the potential he had a few years ago. When Coco Crisp comes off the DL in June, he could return to being the 2005 version, circa Cleveland, that could hit for a good average with some respectable power. As I said, some big leaps of faith are required to see any more runs being scored in Oakland. It's for that reason I see the A's gradually fading. The pitching, and the fact there's no clear power in their division, will let them hang around. But the poor offense, the loss of Duscherer and the unlikelihood of a midseason upgrade mean that the A's will be hard-pressed to hold off the Angels, much less overtake
the Rangers.

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Today the All-Star procession looks at American League catchers, the most anti-climatic election since LBJ beat Goldwater in 1964. Joe Mauer is the man and no one else is close. Mauer routinely turns out OBP's in excess of .400 and has been known to pursue batting averages in that lofty neighborhood too. Last year he really upped his power and it made him an MVP. 2010 has been more of the same. When you combine that with a very weak field of competition, you have the elements for a landslide.

Victor Martinez leads up the list of disappointments in Boston. He is starting to hit of late, but his overall production is still down substantially across the board. A.J. Pierzynski was always somewhat overrated in Chicago, but even given that, his poor bat is still cause for alarm. Kurt Suzuki in Oakland isn't bad, but given that we just reviewed a shaky A's offense and he wasn't in the mix as a contributor tells us all
we need to know.

Some kudos must go to John Buck (Toronto), Mike Napoli (LAA) and Jason Kendall (KC), who are each good in one area. Buck & Napoli have some very nice power numbers, and Kendall is enjoying a little bit of an offensive resurgence in his career with a .350 OBP. But if there was to be a challenger to Mauer, it can't come from one man alone. Only the combined efforts of Yankee catchers can get in the neighborhood of the reigning MVP. Whether it's Posada or Cervelli, their backstop gets on base and hits for power. It speaks volumes to Mauer's dominance, that this is the closest challenge we can muster to his All-Star spot.

For tomorrow, our stop will be in Toronto and our All-Star review will go to the DH spot.

Pittsburgh's Lonely Star

When I decided to begin my position-by-positon analysis with National League catchers, I didn't think I would manage to change my mind in the course of two days (see Sunday's Early All-Star Ballot). But I think I was guilty of an oversight. While Atlanta's Brian McCann is having a nice year, upon further review I don't think it stands up to the underrated Ryan Doumit in Pittsburgh.

Doumit is a complete offensive package, getting on base and putting up a nice .460 slugging percentage. His numbers become more impressive when you consider that he's surrounded by next to no one in the lineup--a fact we'll see in stark detail further down in this post when the Pirates are examined more closely. The combination of good numbers with no help is enough to merit him the early edge for the All-Star team.

One thing I should note in making these selections is that I'm focused strictly on offense. It's not that I don't value defense in a catcher--quite the contrary. But as far as measuring it, I don't trust caught stealing percentages as reliable, because I think that depends as much on the pitcher. And I'm not going to base it on reputation as far as game-calling, something that's media-driven. So though it's less complete than I would prefer, my selections at catcher are offensive-based. With that, some remaining notes on the rest of the field...

*Geovany Soto and Carlos Ruiz are on-base machines, each with OBPs over .400. Just a little bit more muscle from either one and they could be the pick.

*McCann leads up a group of four with balanced offensive profiles. In particular Washington's Ivan Rodriguez and Colorado's Miguel Olivo are having good years, with Chris Snyder in Arizona also in the mix. How you rank this foursome in relation to Soto and Ruiz depends on what you value most offensively. I won't engage that debate here, but I would rank this quartet as McCann, Rodriguez, Olivo and Snyder.

*As though we were on a golf course, let's move on to another foursome. This group has respectable on-base percentages and considering that most teams don't rely on their catcher for big offensive output, aren't liabilities. But nor are they close to All-Star level. Introducing Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, brother Bengie, and Greg Zaun. Of the four, Martin has to be considered more disappointing, because not too long ago he was the best in the National League. Zaun has to be the most heartening, because there was no reason to expect anything from his bat. Yet his OBP is .350.

*Finally you have the Mets' Rod Barajas, in a category all his own. Great slugging percentage at .551, the best among NL catchers. And a horrific .289 OBP, the worst at the position.

***************

Since we honored Doumit for his individual efforts, let's take a look at the rest of his team. Pittsburgh isn't exactly setting the world on fire, at 19-26 and seven games back. But for this struggling franchise, being only two games out of third place and ahead of both Milwaukee and Houston is a sign of hope. ESPN's Buster Olney was also noting earlier this week that they will likely not be sellers at the trade deadline, since there are no veterans approaching free agency. So let's see if this can be the year baseball returns to the Steel City. We'll break it down into four areas--the ability to get men on base, the ability to hit for power, the starting rotation and the bullpen.

The overall profile isn't promising. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in the NL in both runs scored and ERA. They rank 15th in terms of getting men on base and keeping the opposition off base. They rank 15th in terms of slugging percentage as well as slugging allowed. If all that suggests to you that they are really the 15th best team in the league, I would agree. But before writing them off, is there any reason to think they can pick up the pace? You know about Doumit, so let's go into his supporting cast.

Akinori Iwamura simply has to get in gear. A .270 OBP for someone who was once a productive player in Tampa and part of a World Series team is completely unacceptable. Any hopes for improvement start here. Ryan Church is also non-existent and should be doing more. The Pirates have two more dead spots in the attack with Ronny Cedeno and Jeff Clement. The former is the shortstop and presumably not relied on for offense, but Clement is a big liabilty. The positive is centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, sitting on a .381 OBP and vastly outperforming Nate McLouth, his predecessor here who was traded to Atlanta. Garrett Jones isn't lighting up the board, but remains a positive sign of light. Finally we come to Lastings Milledge, who appears destined to never fulfill the great things that were predicted for him when he was with the Mets. Whether that's his fault or that of talent evaluators is unknown to me. What is known is that Pittsburgh can't count him for anything more than they are getting, which is not all that much.

McCutchen also provides a little pop in terms of power, but beyond he and Doumit there isn't much. Here too, Jones has promise, Milledge isn't doing much and Iwamura is nothing short of awful. On balance, the offense can hope for modest improvement in the runners they get on base, but I see little reason to think their ability to hit the gaps and hit home runs will get any better.

And if they don't score, life is going to get real rough, because the starting pitching is not good. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm have ERAs in the mid-4s--keeping in mind that this is without facing a DH and pitching against generally weaker NL lineups--and they're the aces. Charlie Morton managed to put up an 8.71 ERA and still get nine starts. Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens were picked up from the Yankees in 2008 in exchange for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. As raids on the Pinstripes go, this isn't exactly Detroit sneaking out with Austin Jackson.

If Pittsburgh does get to the end of the game with a lead it's still adventure time. Octavio Dotel has already blown a couple saves and has a bloated ERA of 5.89. Evan Meek is a big bright spot in middle work with 0.96 ERA. And with 28 innings in 21 appearances, he's more than a situational pitcher. Javier Lopez is such a situational guy, who goes less than one inning an outing, but at least he's good in doing it at 1.96. No one else can get hitters out consistently.

So can this be the team that gives Pittsburgh some hope? No. Only being in the same division with Houston gives them a shot at avoiding last place and their record will find their way to the #15 spot that their key team stats are already at.

Tomorrow the Notebook will jump over to American League catchers and we'll take a closer look at AL West-contending Oakland.

Watching Wrigleyville

At the start of the season, the Notebook pegged the Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks to win division titles. The former and latter in that group have been big disappointments (at least to me, if not to the rest of the world). All three have interesting weeks ahead, and none more so than the boys from Wrigleyville. The first seven weeks of the season have been chaos on Chicago's north side. Lou Pinellia's sent Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen and called his team out publicly for its poor play. In spite of it all, they're still breathing in the NL Central. Trailing the Cardinals by five games, with the Reds also ahead of them, Week 8 is one that could sink Chicago. It starts with a visit from Joe Torre and the red-hot Dodgers and it ends with their rivals from St. Loo in on the weekend. Against a schedule like this, it's unlikely this is the week that the Cubs mount a comeback. But if they survive the week and are still within five of the lead, we may look at this as the time the patient was stabilized and able to start working on a full recovery. The reader will recall the Notebook said the same thing about Boston prior to its two-game set in the Bronx at this time last week. The Red Sox got a split, held steady and a quick Yankee slump later are suddenly right back in the playoff race. Let's see if it works out the same way in Wrigley.

Arizona has struggled mightily on the mound and are at the bottom of the NL West. But they are within striking distance at 5.5 games, if only they can start passing some teams ahead of them in the immediate future. They have a chance this week when they go to Colorado and San Francisco. Like the Cubs, this is a week that's also fraught with peril. A 2-4 week sets them even further back and 1-5 could spell an early death for the season.

Philadelphia is holding a steady lead in the NL East, but they're coming off a disappointing home series loss against Boston, when Roy Halladay lost the rubber match to Tim Wakefield. All four of their rivals are within five games, and the Phils go on the road against two of them. It starts with a trip to Citi Field to face their hated rival in the Mets. New York is feeling its oats right now, having just beaten Phil Hughes and C.C. Sabathia back-to-back to take two of three from the Yanks. The Mets are also in a spot almost exactly similar to Arizona--only five back, but in the basement, so the Phillies will face a desperate and streaky team that might have given us a sign that a hot streak is about to commence. Over the weekend, Philly then goes south to play the Marlins. It's also a big week for Florida, who begins by hosting surging Atlanta. Bottom line? A big week in the NL East overall and especially for the three-time defending division champs who need to plant their feet and stand firm.

Minnesota has the biggest week in the American League. The Twins are coming off a wild weekend against the Brewers. Saturday's game was a microcosm. Leading 6-2 in the ninth, Minnesota coughed up five runs, then came back to tie and won it in twelve innings. Something more for my friends in Wisconsin to stew about in anticipation of the first Packer-Viking game this fall. The Twins are holding a one-game lead over Detroit right now, but will first host the Yankees and then go to Texas for the weekend. Detroit has an easier week ahead, starting in Seattle and coming home to face Oakland. If we were going to see a reversal at the top in the AL Central, this would be the week. Holding steady would be a win for the Twins.

The Notebook's off on Tuesday. When I come back Wednesday, we'll take a deeper look at the All-Star race among NL catchers, as well as put the undermanned, but still surviving Pirates under the microscope.