Big Ten Country

It's LSU's To Lose

If you can't get Big Ten Country into the Final Four, then bring the Final Four to Big Ten Country. In a year where the conference flamed out in the first two rounds of the tournament, and the state of Indiana is riveted with debate over the controversial hiring of Kelvin Sampson as the next IU coach, the rest of the nation will hone in on Indianapolis starting late Saturday afternoon when college basketball's showcase tips off at the RCA Dome.

I haven't had the chance to see the four teams in action, other then what's taken place the last couple weeks here in March. So I can't offer any real informed commentary, and I won't be the latest writer to just take the easy storyline of extolling George Mason's Cinderella run (though it is the most incredible thing I've seen in college basketball). But the one thing that jumped out at me this past weekend was just how good LSU was.

On my bracket I had Texas coming out of the Atlanta regional, and theoretically should have been thrilled when Duke was knocked out. But after watching the Tigers front line of Tyrus Thomas and Glenn Davis just dismantle the Dookies, I was convinced the 'Horns would have been better off just taking their chances trying to stop J.J. Reddick in the regional final.

LSU looks simply unstoppable in the low post. Not only are both Thomas and Davis immensely talented, but they complement each other perfectly. The former is a lanky shot blocker, the latter a bulky lane-eater. And this front line is orchestrated by veteran senior guard Darryl Mitchell. If the Tigers play to their capacity, I don't see how they can lose this weekend.

But there is one problem and it's analagous to how one feels when they meet a good-looking single person. There's the temptation to ask--something has to be wrong with this package, why are they still single? Well, with LSU, I've been asking--something has to be wrong, how did they only earn a #4 seed? I haven't extolled the ability of coach John Brady, I've been wondering why his team didn't jump on the national stage much sooner.

In watching the regionals, the best I can guess is that LSU is a young team. They've shown a tendency to take dumb three-pointers at key moments, rather then pound it inside. Perhaps that hindered them during the season and they lost games they shouldn't have. If this is the case, Brady can be pardoned, for there are few coaches that can make kids play like veterans when the money's on the table.

And therein lies the key storyline of the weekend--the ultimate money is on the table now. If LSU plays its game, they are going to win it all. But there is considerable doubt as to whether they will, and a very consistent UCLA team stands ready to move into the breach on Saturday night if the Tigers act their age.

Bad Politics, Good Basketball

The debate is heating up surrounding the hiring of Kelvin Sampson at Indiana. ESPN columnist Pat Forde notes that the seat will be considerably hot for the new coach, given his lack of an IU pedigree. Bob Kravitz at The Indianapolis Star writes that athletic director Rick Greenspan blew his chance to heal Hoosier Nation.

On the surface, it does seem that Greenspan almost went out of his way to continue to smack down the many admirers of Bob Knight--who are still legion enough in Indiana, that Texas Tech games are considered regional telecasts in the Bloomington area. And in spite of the university's problems with Knight, there were certainly candidates available--namely Steve Alford and Randy Wittman--who had both admiration from the faithful and would have easily co-existed with the administration. From the standpoint of politics, Greenspan's move was a blunder, and an unnecessary one.

But whatever the political merits of the move, the AD's decision was sound in its basketball judgement. I think Sampson is one of the more underrated coaches in the country. His record is vastly superior to Alford's and both are in relatively similiar situations. Wittman was an unknown commodity, both as a head coach and in the college game. He might have been popular, but if it hadn't worked out, an IU pedigree will only carry you through so many subpar seasons. Keep in mind that Knight himself wasn't immune to rumblings his final six years in Bloomington, and those were years when Indiana made the NCAA Tournament every year, was seeded in the 6-7 range four times, and never lower then ninth. If Mark Few was not available--and initial reports are that he wasn't interested--then Sampson was as good a choice as any to at least get the program back to the level of Knight's final years and to have a reasonable chance to get back to where schools like Michigan State are today.

And a missing angle in this story is that Greenspan's move will also have the effect of "calling out" Mike Davis, as it were. The deposed IU coach has attempted to make the argument his program was hindered by lack of fan support--and that such support could only come from one of Knight's own. The racial subplot was never far from the surface in this storyline. But if Sampson--an ethnic minority frm outside the Knight family--comes in, does the job and wins over the fans, that eliminates Davis' excuse.

I expect Sampson to win at Indiana, and if the Ws come, the healing in Hoosier Nation will follow. Maybe not right away, like an Alford hire would have. But anyone that appreciates Knight-style basketball knows the value of patience. That's what it will take here.

New Coach, New Era

It's looking like Indiana has reached a quick and surprising decision as to who their next basketball coach will be. Multiple media reports are indicating that the Hoosiers will hire Kelvin Sampson away from Oklahoma.

This is a surprising and noteworthy decision by the administration. Surprising in that the school did not look to heal to the rifts with the fan base by hiring someone with a pedigree playing or coaching for Bob Knight. This pool was not limited to Steve Alford, but also included Randy Wittman, a key player on the 1981 national champions and now an NBA assistant.

More noteworthy is that not only did the school go outside the "Knight family" so to speak, they went for a coach with whom the General has clashed (albeit not very seriously) in the Big 12. There were some words exchanged between the OU and Texas Tech programs in general over a controversial ending to a game in Norman a couple years ago, when the Sooners got a victory on what was generally conceded to be a missed call. Tech made some veiled hints that OU should give the win back, and the Sooners ignored them.

So Indiana's administration is making a no-bones-about-it effort to cut the cord to the Knight era. That the school's higher-ups feel this way is not surprising, but that they are willing to risk further alienation from the fan base at a time when they aren't exactly dominating on the court does come as a surprise, at least to me.

But this time around the university will get what it wants. Sampson is a solid coach, and his teams play fundamentally sound basketball with an emphasis on rebounding and defense. IU can also expect more consistency--a trait that was sorely lacking under Sampson's predecessor. It will probably take only a couple seasons at most for Indiana to join Michigan State & Illinois as annual conference title contenders, and a fairly regular player on the national stage.

Alford Being Spurned?

The Indiana basketball coaching job is probably the juiciest plum out there this offseason, and IU has apparently settled on two candidates to invite for interviews. Who they are is still unknown, but we know one name not on the list--Steve Alford.

While an Alford-IU marriage looks awfuly good on paper, I think it would be a mistake. Alford's done a decent job as a head coach, but it hasn't been anything spectacular. Whiel Indiana is a little easier to recruit at then Iowa is, the difference isn't so compelling as to think the former Hoosier star will suddenly start cranking out national powerhouses. Indiana is one of the best basketball jobs in the country, and while it might not be realistic for any school to aspire to the level of what Duke has become, IU can certainly expect its coach to displace Michigan State or Illinois as the benchmark program in the Big Ten. There is no evidence to suggest Alford is the guy.

My choice for the job would be Mark Few at Gonzaga. That the university is moving this quickly, while the Zags are getting ready to play UCLA in the regional semis, indicates it's probably not him. But it's who I would pick.

Post-Mortems

Ohio State was overmatched by Georgetown's front line, writes Maria Ridenour of The Akron Beacon Journal.

Indiana's loss to Gonzaga was a perfect example of why the Hoosiers need a new coach, writes Rick Bozich in the Indianapolis Star.

Illinois' tough defeat to Washington ends the outstanding era of Dee Brown on a downer note, writes Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times.

Wisconsin's fall from grace trailed them all the way to Philadelphia, where their worst nightmare unfolded against Arizona, writes Mark Stewart of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

In the aftermath of a bitter loss, Iowa still has a lot to be proud of, writes Susan Harman of The Iowa Press-Citizen.

Michigan State capped off a disappointing year with a loss to George Mason. This means it's time for Tom Izzo to get tough again, writes Drew Sharp of The Detroit Free Press

PR Disaster Brewing

Big Ten basketball is staring in the face of a public relations nightmare as I type this on the Sunday morning of the second round. Five of its six entrants in the NCAAs are already gone. Conference champ Ohio State is all that's left standing as they prepare to play Georgetown later today. In a media culture that defines success or failure exclusively on what happens in March, the league has a marketing disaster on its hands.

This is unfortunate, because I have long believed that college basketball has been weakened by such an all-or-nothing approach in using the tournament to define sucess. Be that with an individual team or with a conference as a whole. The Big Ten has been at or near the top of the conference RIP ratings all year long. That's a pretty big body of work to wipe out just because Northwestern State hit a buzzer trey against Iowa, or that Dee Brown's last second three-pointer against Washington missed. Using the logic of the media culture, if you reverse those two shots, suddenly Big Ten basketball is strong again. Ridiculous.

But fair's fair. The conference did not play good basketball last season. But come March, Wisconsin got the benefit of a bracket ripped apart by upsets and made a regional final. Michigan State played two excellent games against Duke and Kentucky to join Illinois in the Final Four. All that made up for the regular season in the eyes of the media. Live by March, you die by March. And this year the Big Ten is dying by it.

First-Round Survivors

Illinois got a win over Air Force that was tougher then I anticpated it would be. The hard-fought 78-69 win came in an eerie atmosphere, writes Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times. Cox Arena in San Diego was cleared out early on before the Marquette-Alabama opener, when a security dog sniffed out a possible bomb threat in the concessions area. For Illinois, this was on top of their flight out west being delayed, and their bus breaking down once they got there. Then they played in an odd atmopshere of just a couple hundred people, as they were the "transition" game from the afternoon session to the evening games. The strange conditions creates an atmosphere ripe for the unpredictable, and just like bad weather in football, benefits the underdog. That the Illini maintained their focus and got the win is a credit to the veteran leadership of Dee Brown and James Augustine. With everything starting to settle down, they will play fifth-seeded Washington on Saturday.

Mike Davis' IU career nearly came to an unceremonious end in Salt Lake City in last night's late show. The Hoosiers were trailing 83-80 with under a minute left, before a clutch three from Robert Vaden helped bail them out, and they scored the game's final seven points. Indiana wasn't the only favorite in Salt Lake to get a scare. Xavier had Gonzaga on the ropes, until the Zags were able to asser themselves in the game's closing minutes and escape with a win. As I watched this game unfold, it looked like Xavier was going to win, and I thought of 2002--that year, the bracket opened up for Mike Davis as though he were parting the red sea, and his Final Four run was paved with a #12, #13 & #11 seed mixed around Duke. But the Zags survived this time, and the Indiana-Gonzaga matchup on Saturday should be one of the best games of the second round.

Breaking Down The Bracket

The tournament is now less then twenty hours from tipoff and it's time to make my picks public. Below is how I see each Big Ten faring in this year's dance--

Michigan State--The Spartans got a nice draw. As a #6 seed, they're on the same side of the bracket with a very young #3 seed in North Carolina, and Tennessee, who's #2 spot still has the nation scratching its head. And they get a weak #11 seed in George Mason to start the tournament...in Auburn Hills. Tom Izzo is tough in March and he takes advantage. MSU rolls to the regional final in Washington D.C. before UConn takes them out.

Indiana--I've been shouting all year that the Hoosiers can be dangerous in March. They've got a shot at the Final Four (wouldn't it be ironic if Mike Davis went to Indy, cut down the nets and then left town?). But they've got a tough second-round game with Gonzaga, and that's where it comes to an end.

Wisconsin--The slumping Badgers have enough to beat Arizona. This will be a rematch of a 2000 matchup when UW stunned the then top-seeded Wildcats on their improbable Final Four run. No such magic this time. In round two Wisconsin plays Villanova in Philly, and that's a tall order.

Iowa--Picking against the Hawkeyes in round two against #6 seed West Virginia has been trendy. WVU is tough, but Iowa wins two games. The run ends against Texas in the regional semis in Atlanta.

Illinois--Everyone's most dangerous #4 seed, they will win their first two games against Air Force and Washington without breaking a sweat. If they could play a one-seed like Villanova or Memphis, they'd keep advancing. But UConn's too much in the round of sixteen and Dee Brown's great career ends there.

Ohio State--The #2 seed in the weakest regional (Minneapolis), OSU is in good position. They make the regional final, but I'm on the Boston College bandwagon when it comes to picking a winner in this bracket.

So I'm not calling any Big Ten teams in the Final Four, though two are in regional finals (Ohio State and Michigan State), and I think UConn's road to Indianapolis goes through the Big Ten in having to beat Illinois and MSU to get there.

Rounding out the picture, UConn, UCLA and Boston College will be at the Final Four, but will fall short.

The national champion?--They won it all in baseball. They won it all in football. And they'll score the hat trick this spring. Hook 'em Horns!

Reasons For Optimism

Ohio State has every reason to be pleased with its bracket position. This coming weekend they'll be playing close to home in Dayton, with a first-round game against Davidson. The second round match will be against either a Georgetown team that has been overrated due to its win over Duke earlier in the year or Northern Iowa.

If the Big Ten champs take care of their business in Dayton, they would journey to Minneapolis for the regionals where the draw remains favorable. Florida is not an overwhelming #3 seed, and has shown a propensity for tournament failure in the years since their run to the final game in 2000. The top seed in the region is Villanova. And the Wildcats are too backcourt-oriented to match up with OSU inside. Villanova plays a three-guard set, and another forward is virtually a fourth guard. This is very similar to the kind of #1 seed Indiana was in 1993--and those teams invariably fall once they go up against another team that plays well in the backcourt and also has an inside presence. Je'Kel Foster and Terrence Dials certainly meet that criteria for Thad Matta's team.

Ohio State's biggest threat probably comes from Boston College, a team that is rightly being lauded by the ESPN crew and quickly became a trendy Final Four pick on the Sunday night selection show. I also like BC and am tabbing them to go to Indy--but from the perspective of Ohio State, when you're biggest threat comes from the #4 seed, you certainly have no reason to fear your draw.

So what's the reaction of folks in Buckeye Nation to the possibility of a Final Four run? Well, if you visit the sports page of the Akron Beacon Journal, you'l find that the top Buckeyes story is how Jim Tressel sang Happy Birthday to someone on their 103rd birthday. A nice story to be sure, but come on OSU--I like football more then basketball too, but it's hoops season!

Illinois Takes To The Air

Remember Illinois' run to the Final Four last year? The Illini never had to get a plane. They played the opening two rounds in Indy, the regionals in Chicago and the Final Four was in St. Louis. It's a different story this year, as Bruce Weber's team hops a plane to San Diego for their first-round date with Air Force. If Illinois survives the weekend, they jet to the opposite coast to play in Washington D.C.

The situation has left the Illini a bit unhappy, reports Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times. Most critics felt Illinois deserved to be seeded ahead of Tennessee, a team that got a surprising #2 spot.

The Illini have no real reason to complain, other then geography though. Air Force is the weakest at-large team in the field, and I don't think the Falcons should have been chosen at all. If Weber's team takes care of business there, Washington is not overwhelming at #5. The only downside is that both of those teams are from the West, and closer to home.

But the Illinois fans can solve that, by filling the arena this weekend and turning it into Champaign West. Get out those frequent flyer miles, Illini fans--you had plenty of chances to save them last March.