Big Ten Country

Prepping For Saturday

Iowa has high expectations and an easy game lined up for Saturday, with Ball State on the agenda. But they'll need to break in some fresh faces at receiver and linebacker. Andy Hamilton of The Iowa Press-Citizen writes on the Hawkeyes freshman class that will be called upon in the opener.

Michigan had one its most disappointing seasons in recent memory last year. Part of it was due to nagging injuries to Michael Hart. But the halfback is back and hungry for a fresh season.

The Wolverines first big test won't come until they face Notre Dame on the 16th. But the Fighting Irish will have to be ready from the get-go, facing a Georgia Tech program that won in Miami last year. Charlie Weis tells The South Bend Tribune a little bit about what it's like to prepare for the opener, with a year's experience under his belt.

Taking On The MAC

As usual, the first week of the college football season features a menu of games where the Mid-American Conference can prove its worth against the Big Ten. Six games are MAC-Big Ten showdowns, with the upstart league looking to win respect--from the pollsters, bowl selectors and high school recruits.

The showcase games will feature the two MAC finalists from a year ago (the conference is split into divisions and plays a championship game) against the defending co-champs of the Big Ten. At 3:30 EST, with the ABC lights on, top-ranked Ohio State will host Northern Illinois. And over on ESPN, Akron pays a visit to Penn State.

For Ohio State, the offense is the key to its high expectations, writes Bucknuts Magazine. Penn State is hoping the magic of '05 will be back for this season. The coaching staffs at both teams have to make sure players aren't looking ahead to their big September 9 games against Texas & Notre Dame, respectively.

But the game will the most potential to tell us something about how the Big Ten season is likely to shake out will not be either of these showcase games. The best Big Ten-MAC game will be in the city of Cleveland, where Wisconsin will play Bowling Green. This Falcon team is not the same one that put UW in a 20-0 hole in last year's opener, before the Badger offense opened up. Omar Jacobs is gone at quarterback, as is virtually every weapon he had. But Wisconsin has big-time question marks on offense, and that was before John Stocco missed substantial amounts of practice time due to injury (he is expected to start Saturday night). Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tells us five key questions that new coach Bret Bielema will be looking for answers on.

What sort of team the Badgers can be expected to produce in the post-Alvarez era will have a big impact on the 3 thru 7 spots in the conference. This game against a developing and hungry program will tell us a lot about what the answer to that question will be. It also represents the MAC's best chance for a win as they continue to strive for national respect and BCS recognition.

A Tale of Two Rivals

Iowa & Wisconsin have started to develop a nice rivalry in recent years. This year will be the fourth in a row  (or second schedule-cycle) that they are slated to play in the conference finale. All things being equal, both schools may consider Minnesota a bigger rival, but these two border states have a lot in common. Barry Alvarez worked for Hayden Fry, and retained a close friendship with Kirk Ferentz. Based on what I saw of Iowa fans on a trip back to Madison for last year's game, the rivarly seems at the healthy level of mutual respect. 

But there's no question who's getting the better end of things right now. The Hawkeyes have won the last three matchups, and two of those were in Camp Randall. In 2003 they held off a late Wisconsin drive with a New Year's Day bid at stake for both teams. In '04, Iowa denied UW a trip to the Rose Bowl and claimed a share of the conference title for themselves. In both of those cases key injuries hurt the Badgers, but there was no denying the Hawkeye performance last year, when they dominated the second half in a game where Wisconsin should have had all the emotion, playing in Alvarez's last home game.

The two programs look headed in opposite directions for this season. John Stocco is still recoverng from surgery, though he will probably be ready for the opener against Bowling Green next week. And The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Bret Bielama may have to play up to twelve freshman in some type of role. Iowa, on the other hand, is experienced in both trenches, and hoping this is the year they beat Michigan and Ohio State in the same season, for the first time in school history. The Press Citizen's Pat Harty examines ten questions Iowa fans should ponder.

Lions & Irish Eye Each Other Up

Notre Dame & Penn State will play each other for the first time since 1992, a game when Rick Mirer ended his home career by directing a stirring comeback drive in the waning moments. This game joins the Ohio State-Texas matchup as the highlight of the first two weeks.

Penn State wrapped up two-a-day practices yesterday, reports The Centre Daily Times. Paterno has a lot of holes to fill, but is pleased with what he's seen--his team hasn't had any real injuries and the old coach is ready to see how his young players respond to real game action.

With the preseason hype surrounding Notre Dame receiver Jeff Samardizja, it can be easy to forget that at this time last year, Rhema McKnight was the go-to guy. McKnight went down with a knee injury against Michigan. He's back this year, writes Todd McShay on ESPN.com, and is ready to give ND a strong combo at receiver for Brady Quinn.

The Talent Level in Columbus

The expectations being placed on Ohio State may be this summer's Theatre of the Absurd. But to no one's surprise, Tressel is working overtime to have his team ready. Rusty Miller of The Akron Beacon-Journal writes on the preparation the Bucks are putting in to make sure they are ready to go on September 9 in Austin.

For those that believe in OSU's ability to win it all this year though, Drew Sharp of The Detroit Free Press has some eye-opening numbers: 31-16. That's the lead Ohio State holds on Michigan in sending players to the NFL over the last four years. To put it mildly, that is an enormous discrepancy. I'm still not sure if it's a vindication of those who rank Tressel's young team #1, a searing indictment of Michigan's recent classes or a little mixture of both. But it's one more number that doesn't bode well for Lloyd Carr--and might mean that 31-16 is the type of score Wolverine fans will need to get used to against Ohio State.

Rebellion Brewing

This year marks the 25th anniversary of college football's populist rebellion. Any readers recall 1981? That was the year the peasants of the game rose up and finally overthrew the reigning establishment. It was 1981 that the era of the Big Ten belonging exclusively to Michigan & Ohio State came to an end. Iowa went to the Rose Bowl that year and it was Wisconsin, not either of the Big Two, that they beat to secure the bid. What was true in the Big Ten was true throughout the nation. It was an upstart team in Clemson that came out of nowhere, went undefeated and then upended Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to win the national championship.

The silver anniversary of this season of upheaval will be marked by a rebellion of a similar nature this year. Last season was remembered as the year traditional powers reasserted themselves--Penn State, Alabama and even Nebraska started to play a little better by the end of the year. 2006 is going to be remembered as the year that chaos reigned, new teams won conference championships, and BCS corporate executives suffered heart failure, watching the marquee teams fall by the wayside. In the post below, I tabbed Iowa to win the Big Ten, although that has nowhere near the shock value it did back in '81. Here's a few more dramatic instances of long-oppressed serfs finally getting their place at the table--

--With Texas breaking in a freshman quarterback, Oklahoma trying to get its program back on track, and Nebraska not all the way back, look for Texas Tech to win the Big 12 and prove it's not just an outpost for great basketball coaches in exile.

--In a razor-tight Pac-10 race, Arizona State nips Southern Cal to earn a trip to Pasadena. Keep an eye on Stanford as a darkhorse spoiler in this race.

--Auburn, Alabama and LSU are good, but all have inexperience in key spots. One team in the SEC West is strong throughout and they aren't that far removed from being a Top 20 program. Arkansas rebounds in a big way this year, and with a weak field in the Eastern division, the Hogs claim their first championship since joining the SEC in 1992.

--Miami is in turmoil, Florida State still has holes and Virginia Tech is rebuilding. Who does that leave? Who else, but the team that won it all in the original rebellion of '81. Clemson claims the ACC crown.

In the national picture, I can't give in completely to the spirit of upheaval. I still like Notre Dame to win it all. But one of the teams I've listed here would have to come in at #2 and earn a trip to Tempe. It's very close, but I will lean to Arkansas. This would create a BCS title game that's essentially a "Lou Holtz Bowl", with the old coach having worked in Little Rock from 1977-83.

When you make some audacious picks you run the risk of looking extremely stupid at year's end, and I can't say I've been immune to that over the years. And I don't doubt that at least a couple of the teams I listed will flop, and a couple of the traditional powers will end up winning conference titles. But it won't come easy, and I stand by this fundamental premise--when the first weekend of December rolls around, 2006 will be remembered as a year in which college football was stood on its head.

Iowa On Top

No team in the Big Ten progressed better down the stretch last year then Iowa did. At this time in 2005, the Hawkeyes were the team the media had chosen to inflict unreasonable expectations upon. Ferentz had a young team and a difficult early schedule. Losses to Iowa State & Ohio State quickly dropped them out of contention. But they rebounded and went 5-2 down the stretch, including spoiling Barry Alvarez's last home game in November.

This time around, Iowa shouldn't need September as a tune-up month. This team is solid in the trenches. The defensive front in particular, looks excellent. Because Big Ten football is won and lost in the trenches, the front four, led by end Kenny Iwebema, will more then compensate for the loss of two All-American linebackers. An experienced secondary rounds out what is the top defense of the conference contenders.

The Hawks are also in good shape up front on offense, and with Albert Young running behind them, they will have the running game needed to compete for a championship. Drew Tate is as good a signal-caller as his counterparts at Michigan & Ohio State.

Iowa's big test will be September 30 when the Buckeyes visit Iowa City. They must win that game to have a chance at a crown, given that there is a road trip to Ann Arbor in October that will be tough to win. Penn State is off the schedule, but it remains to be seen if that's a bigger break for Paterno or Ferentz. I think the former. I like this Iowa team. While they are not great, I see them as narrowly better then their key rivals. Since coming to Iowa City, Ferentz has shared the conference title twice, but never gotten the automatic BCS bid. That changes this year. Big Ten Country is calling Iowa to go to Pasadena for the first time since 1990.

What's Next In Wisconsin?

Nobody expected much out of Wisconsin last year. But the Badgers made 2005 one long farewell party to their great coach, Barry Alvarez. They capped it off by shocking the world in the Capital One Bowl. A two-touchdown dismantling of powerful Auburn was one more feather in Alvarez' career as he turned the program over to defensive coordinator Bret Bielama.

The new coach will have a veteran defense to work with. As good a year as the Badgers had last season, the inexperienced D struggled mightily, and not until the Auburn game did they really excel. But seven starters are on hand, and that does not include ends Jamal Cooper and Matt Shaughnessy, who are returning from ACL injuries. One of the themes I've hit on through the preseason is the debate over whether having an experienced team really matters if the previous experience hasn't been altogether positive. The UW defense will provide a case study, as a unit that generally looked a step slow all year long is what Bielama will stake his rookie campaign on.

During the Alvarez era, Wisconsin was that rare team for whom how many starters they had back on the offensive line really didn't matter. The Badgers seemed to just load up and function with workmanlike cohesion up front no matter who was in place. This year will test whether that tradition will continue under Bielama. Only one starter returns--and that's Joe Thomas, who also is battling his way back from ACL surgery. It could be a long year for quarterback John Stocco. I've always felt Stocco was underrated, and his performance in the Capital One Bowl opened a lot of eyes.  But now with his entire supporting cast gone and no line to block for him, I suspect the folks in the Dairy State are going to go to the other extreme of expecting to much from him.

If you look up and down the Big Ten, you see programs looking like they're on the rise. Illinois is excited about the first recruiting hauls under Ron Zook. Indiana feels like they're ready to improve back to bowl level. Michigan State is in a perpetual state of getting ready to strive for the next level. Penn State insists they're back to stay. If you believe even a couple of these claims, simple math tells you those wins are going to have to come from somewhere. Who's the most likely program to begin a decline? The obvious answer is Wisconsin.

In the interests of full disclosure, I am a Badger partisan, being from the state originally. But with Alvarez gone, a certain amount of decline would seem almost certain. The question remains whether UW will just drop back to the midlevel (as opposed to generally being considered a dark horse to win the league), or fall further. Bielama's going to have to rely on his defense to provide a good answer to the question

Still Something To Prove

At this time last year the question in Happy Valley was whether Penn State would be faced with the terrible possibility of having to force Joe Paterno out. Four losing seasons in five meant the program was becoming more synonymous with Indiana and Illinois as opposed to Michigan and Ohio State.

The folks of central Pennsylvania were more then a little uptight when South Florida came to town on September 3. But by the time it was over the Lions were ranked third in the country, had won the Orange Bowl and were just one play from an undefeated season. Good news on the recruiting trail has Penn State talking about a national championship in 2007.

The Lions will have a transition year in 2006. Last year's team showed the value of experienced seniors, even those seniors whose previous track record was less then stellar. This year, both lines must be rebuilt, the secondary will have four new starters,  and Paterno will break in new quarterback Anthony Morelli. Among the departees is defensive end Tamba Hali, a ferocious game-changing pass-rusher who will not be easily replaced.

Linebacker Paul Poluszny, perhaps the best at his position in the country, is back and appears to be recovered from the knee injury that knocked him out ot the Orange Bowl. The team also has excellent speed at receiver, in sophomores Deon Butler and Derrick Williams.

The schedule is manageable. Road trips to Notre Dame and Ohio State have to be penciled in as losses, but using that same logic, you can pencil them for a win at home against Michigan. Travel dates at Wisconsin and Purdue are the only real tough challenges beyond that, and the non-conference slate includes three automatic Ws.

Penn State still has a lot to prove to establish they are back among the Big Ten elite and ready to be a consistent national contender again. They have too much rebuilding to do to reach the latter goal this year, but if they are truly back, then they will be able to reload and still win eight or nine games. I personally think they are, expect them to win at least nine, and I'd be shocked if they came in under 8-4. But they have to do it on the field and show that 2005 was not just a last hurrah.

Rising Temps In Ann Arbor

Lloyd Carr was once in the safest position of all Big Ten coaches, but as the 2006 season approaches, his seat is becoming one of the warmest in the conference. Michigan has now played poor defense in three consecutive bowl games, and has committed the unpardonable sin--the Wolverines are just 1-4 against Ohio State since the arrival of Jim Tressel. Yes, it's fair to say that memories of Carr's national championship in 1997 are starting to go dim, as Ann Arbor folks recall defensive collapses against the Buckeyes, and then again in the Alamo Bowl against Nebraska. The head coach needs to re-assert control and have a big year quickly.

He's going to take the field with a team that really doesn't make you go "wow" on either side. The Wolverines have good talent at the skill positions. Chad Henne is back at quarterback and Michael Hart and Kevin Grady will make a nice 1-2 punch at tailback. Steve Breaston and Mario Manningham give Henne competent targets to throw too. But the offensive line must be re-tooled around junior tackle Jake Long. Defensively, the team loses five starters, but returns playmaking defensive end LaMarr Woodley. On balance, this is a Wolverine team that will legitimately contend for the conference title (when do they not?), but the lineup does not conjure up images of Tempe either.

So is 2006 a make-or-break year for Carr? I think that might be overstating it. He was forced to overhaul his staff in the offseason, and the games against Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State are all on the road. It's hard to see a program as stable as Michigan's making this type of year a "win-or-else" campaign. But it will set the tone for how the coach enters 2007, when he gets those games at home. A rough '06--which is defined as any season that does *not* involve winning at Columbus, or clocking in with fewer then nine wins--would surely make Lloyd's the hottest seat in town come this time next year.