Big Ten Country

ACC Still Rolls Big Ten

The ACC is opening up another can on the Big Ten in their annual November challenge. The troops from Tobacco Road opened up a 4-2 lead in this year's event. In yesterday's post, I analogized the beatings our home conference is taking to the Rose Bowl drought of the 1970s through 1986. But this is really worse--in those Rose Bowl games, you at least turned on the set thinking the Big Ten had a good chance to finally win this year. What makes the hardwood losses to the ACC so maddening, is that they don't--at least collectively--come as any real shock.

Indiana put up a good effort at Duke last night. Kelvin Sampson won't take the moral victory, but he was pleased with his team's work ethic, as they rallied from fifteen down to have a chance to tie at the end of the game.

Illinois rallied from a big first-half deficit at home against Maryland and the teams played a taut second half, before the Illini succumbed. Greg Couch of The Chicago Sun Times says Bruce Weber's team will be heard from come March.

Wisconsin was one of the winners, and looked impressive in doing so. Bo Ryan's team thumped Florida State at the Kohl Center, and showed they might be worthy of the preseason accolades that give them a legitimate chance of being in Atlanta this spring.

One team that didn't have to wait to get to Atlanta (site of the Final Four) was Penn State, who traveled  to play Georgia Tech. The Lions lost, but the tough fight they gave the 24th-ranked Yellow Jackets might be the conference's biggest source of pride as this year's challenge hits the halfway mark.

The remaining five games are tonight. Top-ranked Ohio State goes to Chapel Hill to face the sixth-ranked Tar Heels. The ACC will probably win the challenge no matter what, but a win in this game would salvage a lot of pride.

Another ACC Challenge Starts

This is the eighth straight year the Big Ten has played the ACC in their November basketball challenge. Eleven games, featuring each Big Ten school and all but one of the ACC's members (Wake Forest is the absent member this year).

The Big Ten's record in this event has made the conference's Rose Bowl performance during the 1970s and early 80s look like a smashing success by comparison. Literally. The ACC has won this challenge all seven years. They got off to another good start last night when N.C. State beat visiting Michigan. It was a chance for the Wolverines to prove themselves on a national stage, writes Mark Snyder of The Detroit Free Press, and they let it slip.

Tuesday and Wednesday each have five games on tap. Tonight's featured events are Maryland-Illinois at 7 PM, with Indiana-Duke following. Both games are on ESPN. Wednesday is the juicy matchup. Ohio State, smelling a double-dip national title run and boasting the top-ranked team in the nation plays North Carolina.

The Coaching Carousel Starts

Michigan State announced that its next head coach will be Mark Dantonio, fomerly of the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Detroit Free Press reports that Dantonio has been inked to a five-year contract.

The new Spartan master did an excellent job with the Bearcats. His team will go to a bowl game this season, and they routed Rutgers in what is thus far the Scarlet Knights only loss. A move to a midlevel Big Ten program is a logical next step on the career path for him.

Although it does bear noting that his resume doesn't look a whole lot different then the one John L. Smith brought to East Lansing when he left Louisville. Since Michigan State's 1987 Rose Bowl trip, they've really only made one big splash--when they knocked off Florida in the Citrus Bowl following the 1999 season. It hasn't mattered who the head coach is, the results have been more or less the same. Time will tell if Dantonio is unique among recent MSU coaches, or if there is an in-house reason that the program is not playing with the sustained consistency of even a Purdue (never mind Wisconsin or Iowa).

Larry Coker got the axe in Miami as expected. There is really only one logical choice for this job, and he's currently in the AD offices of Madison, WI. While there are several candidates who make sense in purely football terms (I think Greg Schiano could win there), only Barry Alvarez has the disciplined approach and the football resume to even have a chance at doing what Miami really needs with its program.

I assume the 'Canes are serious about cleaning up their act, but that they want to do so while returning to the elite in football. Personally, I think their program has sunk so far that they only way it can be cleaned up is to radically de-emphasize football for a generation or so. But that's not going to happen, so they need a coach who can at least do the balancing act and keep the team out of obvious trouble. Alvarez is the only one who really has a chance at doing both. Other candidates may have good intentions, but it takes credibility with the players to make discipline stick. Barry is the only one of the possible successors with the track record that provides such credibility.

What's At Stake For ND?

What's at stake for Notre Dame tomorrow night in Los Angeles? It's hard to imagine a game more hyped, yet with less impact for one of the teams. Irish chances for a national championship are non-existent. Even if they blow the Trojans out (a heady goal to be sure), huge numbers of voters would have to agree to overlook ND's loss to Michigan. In the unlikely event of an Irish rout, the most likely consequence will be solidifying Michigan's hold on the #2 spot over the SEC champion. Voters would be impressed with Notre Dame...and conclude that any team that beat them by twenty-six points in their own backyard must be awfully good.

On the other side of the BCS ladder, it's impossible to imagine Notre Dame losing so badly that they were denied a major bowl bid entirely. They would have to drop out of the top 14 to become ineligible, and that would be a drop as likely as a rise over Michigan would be. No matter what the Irish do tomorrow night, they are going to the Rose or Sugar Bowl.

So what's at stake. The typical response is "pride", and I suppose that's what my answer will boil down to. But it is a little more then that. Notre Dame has proven a lot since Charlie Weis rode into town with his three Super Bowl rings. This year will mark their best back-to-back seasons since 1992-93. Their first time with two consecutive major bowl bids since 1994-95. They've produced a legit Heisman contender for the first time since Rick Mirer (and even that' s being generous, you might have to go back to Rocket Ismail). Notre Dame has re-established itself as a program in the national spotlight by merit, and not by the size of its Subway Alumni.

There is one thing they haven't done though, and that is to beat a really good team. The win in Ann Arbor last year faded in impressiveness, as the '05 Wolverines started to fall apart. They've got a couple nice wins this year (most notably the rout of 8-4 Penn State). But they haven't won a truly big-time game under Weis. They've ridden the wave of good publicity that came with their near-miss last year against Southern Cal.

Even if Notre Dame loses tomorrow night and loses its bowl game, it doesn't tarnish Weis' achievment. Given where the program has been for so long, going to BCS games his first two years is a good enough start to get the groundwork laid as he goes into what's a rebuilding year in '07. I don't see this as a case of their season being at stake, or the legitimacy of the revival being on the line. But somewhere along the line, ND will have to win a game of this magntitude. They've got two more at-bats left this season to prove they can hit big-league pitching. Tomorrow they're in the batter's box in the Coliseum.

BCS Bowl Projections

The race to be Ohio State's opposition in Glendale looks pretty cut-and-dried. If USC beats Notre Dame & UCLA, they are in. If they lose one of those games, Michigan will be in. The Trojans trail the Wolverines right now, but the margin is so tiny that every commentator I have read, including ESPN's BCS expert Brad Edwards, say it's almost unthinkable that USC could not end up #2 if they just win.

It also looks like the SEC champ is frozen out in the event of a USC loss. This isn't a done deal yet, as Florida may have an outside shot if they beat Florida State this weekend, then take down Arkansas for the conference title. But they are a long shot, and a lot of voters would have to change their minds to make this happen. Arkansas has even more minds to change. They do play LSU on Friday, an opponent that will do more for their rating. But the flip side of that is it's an opponent that can beat them. If the Hogs get too focused on how impressive they have to be in winning, it can detract from the simple task of beating a Top 10 caliber team.

But as we head into Thanksgiving, I'm doing projections for both a USC-Ohio State title game, as well as a possible rematch. The interesting fight right now is for the last at-large berth. Four are available and Michigan & Notre Dame have locks on two of them. Boise State locks up the third if they beat Nevada. Contenders for the final spot include LSU (if they beat Arkansas), Auburn, West Virginia, Oklahoma and maybe even Virginia Tech or Boston College.  The Rose Bowl will have considerable sway in determining who gets the nod. Unless they opt for a Michigan-ND or a USC-ND rematch, the Rose will be the one making the decisive call.

The selection order for the major bowls goes as follows:

1)Replacement pick for #1 team (Rose)
2)Replacement pick for #2 team
3)Sugar (to play SEC champ)
4)Orange (to play ACC champ)
5)Fiesta (to play Big 12 champ)

Though the Big East does not have a tie-in, they are guaranteed a bid. Here's how I see it playing out:

If Ohio State plays USC

Rose: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
--I still stand by the time-honored rule that if a bowl can pick Notre Dame, they will. And if that means passing Michigan to avoid a rematch, I think they would do it. Oklahoma still has to move up one more spot in the BCS rankings to get eligible, but I think they will do that. Look for people to remember that only the officiating in the Oregon game (and their own bad defense late) kept them from being 11-1. If the Sooners are not eligible, I look for the Rose to take West Virginia, with its legion of fans.

Sugar: Michigan vs. Arkansas
--Or Florida, if they win the SEC. But the Wolverines or Irish are an easy call here if they are passed by the Rose.

Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Louisville
--The selection process virtually dictates this one. With Michigan and Notre Dame gone, and Boise State a required pick, the Orange has no option other then to go with the Big East champ as the opponent for either Georgia Tech or whomever comes out of the ACC. Louisville clinches a share of the Big East crown with a win over Pitt. They would split it with the winner of West Virgina-Rutgers. If it's the Mountaineers, the Cards take this bid on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Rutgers can still get the coveted Orange Bowl bid if they beat WVA, by virtue of their win over the 'Ville.

Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State
--The Fiesta is stuck with the Broncos. Nebraska will be Texas' opponent in the Big 12 title game.

If Ohio State plays Michigan

Rose: USC vs. Oklahoma
--The Rose has to covet the Trojans somehow losing and falling back into this game, because the most compelling storylines exist for the matchups. They can take the Sooners, a rematch of the '04 Orange Bowl for the national title. They can take LSU, a matchup of the co-national champs from 2003. Or if LSU loses, they can take Auburn, who went 12-0 in '04, but was frozen out of the Orange Bowl. Hard to go wrong.

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
--The only scenario where ND doesn't go to Pasadena is this one, at least by my speculation.

Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Louisville
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State

As things stand now, it revolves around the Rose and Sugar. The Orange & Fiesta are pretty well locked in, and it's just a question of the ACC, Big East and Big 12 playing out their conference titles. But if Boise State loses on Saturday, the bottom of the draft order gets very interesting, as there will be an at-large to fill. And the two bowls being on opposite sides of the country means different types of teams will be attractive to each. If you want chaos (and some good games), pull for Nevada this weekend.

Happy Thanksgiving to all readers!

Big Ten Bowl Bids Accepted

The non-BCS slots in the Big Ten's bowl lineup are all set, with the five eligible teams after Michigan and Ohio State all accepting bids.

As expected, Wisconsin went to the Capital One and Penn State went to the Outback. They will draw the second and third choices from the SEC on New Year's Day.

Purdue is going to the Champs Sports Bowl, a new addition to the conference lineup, replacing the Sun Bowl. The Boilermakers play the fourth pick out of the ACC.

Iowa and Minnesota will each have Big 12 opponents. The Hawkeyes are Alamo bound, and will play that league's fourth selection. The Gophers will play the sixth team out of the Big 12 in the Insight Bowl.

Who these teams play will depend on how the BCS picture shakes out in the next couple weeks. The SEC and Big 12 each have contending teams for an at-large berth to one of the marquee games, and that will have ripple effects down the ladder. But here's an early peek at how these matchups might shake out.

Capital One--Sheer numbers give the SEC a good shot at snaring an at-large BCS bid and removing either the Arkansas/Florida loser, Auburn or LSU from the mix of teams available as opponents for the Badgers. I think the loser of the conference title game ends up here. They will be the least attractive to the BCS by coming off a loss, but the overall caliber of their season makes them too strong to drop any lower. And I think the team will be Florida.

Outback Bowl--If Auburn doesn't end up getting a BCS nod, they will come here. They played Wisconsin in the Capital One last year and there is little point in a rematch. If Auburn is not available, then a lot will depend on what LSU does Saturday against Arkansas. If they win, and still don't make the BCS, they probably end up here. Right now I think they are the safest bet to square off with Joe Pa.

Champs Sports Bowl--The ACC picture's finally starting to become a little clearer. I would cautiously guess that the loser of the conference championship game falls here. Virginia Tech is a very strong choice in the ACC's 2/3 slots for either the Gator or Peach. Boston College is also a solid bet for one of these bids if it beats reeling Miami tomorrow night. That means the loser of Wake-Georgia Tech in the title game drops to this game. This could still get messed up if Wake Forest loses its regular season finale, and BC ends up winning the division. But for now I'm penciling in the Demon Deacons as Purdue's opponent.

Alamo Bowl--What Big 12 teams fall here and to the Insight will hinge whether Oklahoma can make it into the BCS as an at-large. The Cotton and Holiday get the first two cracks at available teams, and the Sooners and the Nebraska-Texas loser are locks for these spots if both are available. That means Texas A&M fits in  here.  While I think OU has a good shot at making the BCS, they still need to move up in the polls a bit. Iowa can make cautious preparations for playing the Aggies.

Insight Bowl--Kansas State, Missouri and Texas Tech are next in the Big 12 pecking order, and the Insight will get the second choice among those three. I'm guessing Texas Tech is who Minnesota will play.

A Chance To Prove Themselves

The debate is raging over whether a rematch should take place on January 8. Big Ten Country has weighed in on that topic below. The other two key conference bowl bids don't have controversy shrouding them. Wisconsin has been honed in on a second straight Capital One Bowl bid for several weeks. Penn State has been similiarly dialed in on the Outback, the game that sets the tone for New Year's Day. Both will match up with SEC teams.

Wisconsin is still hoping against hope for an at-large bid to the BCS. There have been rumors flying around about a possible loophole in the two-team per conference limitation that would kick in if both Michigan and Ohio State play for the national title. But I've checked the BCS Selection Rules (they are linked to here on the lefthand side), and I don't see any loophole. I've also not heard anyone I would consider credible say with any real conviction that this loophole exists. The Badgers had best gear up for Orlando, where they will get the chance to prove their elite record was not purely the result of weak competition.

Penn State didn't expect as tough a game as Michigan State gave them, according to offensive tackle Levi Brown. But playing the style PSU plays virtually guarantees close games (though I don't know if offensive ineptitude is really a "style"). On the flip side, however, the Nittany Lions have a defense that can shut down anyone. So even though their opponent in Tampa will almost be surely be someone of high profile (LSU or Auburn look like the best bets), and Penn State is going to be an underdog, they can be assured the D will keep them in the game. Like Wisconsin, PSU has a unique opportunity to prove themselves in this one. Every team they have lost to is ranked in the top eight nationally. Conversely, their best wins came against Purdue and Minnesota. The Outback Bowl will be a chance for them to beat a top-caliber team and mark themselves as a national contender in 2007.

Big Ten Holds One Bid

With two of its bowl spots in jeopardy, and the only two eligible teams playing as underdogs, the Big Ten got the best it could realistically hope for. One of the bids was saved, and only the Motor City berth, at the bottom of the pecking order will fall by the wayside.

Minnesota rescued one of the bids with a 34-24 win over Iowa that they had command of throughout. The Gophers are probably headed for the Insight Bowl, where they will play a midlevel Big 12 team. The game capped a complete collapse by Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost whatever minimal chance they had of a New Year's Day game, ended the season at .500 and had to end it by getting thumped by their archrival. Pat Harty, writing on Hawk Central, says this team has a lot of work to do before they get a last shot at redemption in late December.

The last bowl slot slipped away when Indiana lost at Purdue. It was a missed opportunity for the Hoosiers, who lost their last three games. But Bob Kravitz at The Indianapolis Star rightly lauds the program for the progress they made, and for the coach who inspired them through his medical struggles.

A Rematch? Not So Fast My Friend

The issue is not who's second-best. The issue is who deserves to be #1 if they can beat Ohio State.

The game has been played and the debate has begun. Will we see Round Two in Glendale, or will Michigan have to content itself with "only" playing in a BCS bowl game for perhaps the #2 ranking in the final polls. As I write this, the BCS standings have not come out. But the AP poll has. Though the writer's poll is not used in calculating the rankings, it may be a helpful hint as to what will happen later tonight when the ballots they do count arrive. Michigan is holding at #2 in the AP, with Southern Cal coming in third. If this holds up in the official rankings, and through the next two weeks, Michigan will get a crack at redemption in Tempe.

I hope a rematch does not happen, and certainly not under these circumstances. It's one thing if a series of upsets over the next couple weeks takes place, and leave Michigan as the only realistic option. That would not be ideal, but at least it would be understandable. But to simply leave them at #2 is not fair to other strong one-loss teams who have actually have won conference championships. USC being one, and the Arkansas/Florida winner being the other. The Trojans still have to deal with Notre Dame & UCLA, while the Hogs and Gators each have tough games this weekend before their SEC title bout. But if one of those teams wins out, it would simply be absurd not to give them a shot at winning at all.

There's only one situation even approaching a precedent for creating this type of rematch, right after a late November #1 vs. #2 battle. In 1996, Florida State beat Florida. The Seminoles won that game on their home field by three points, just like Ohio State this year. The Gators got a rematch in the Sugar Bowl and won the national title. But there are several differences between that year and what seems poised to transpire ten years later.

Florida did not hold at #2 in the polls. In '96, the Rose Bowl was outside the "Bowl Alliance", as the BCS was then called. Arizona State was unbeaten and ranked second at the end of the regular season. Under today's rules, the Gators would not have gotten another chance.

And even to get that chance, they needed three big games to break their way, two of which were major upsets. After Florida's loss, Nebraska moved past them in the polls. But the Cornhuskers were stunned by a middling Texas team in the inaugural Big 12 championship game. That opened the path for the Gators to get to New Orleans. But Ohio State was also unbeaten. One week prior to the big #1 vs. #2 showdown, they were stunned by a less-then-stellar Michigan team, in Columbus. That ensured the Rose Bowl would not feature a 2 vs. 3 battle of the unbeatens. And after that, Ohio State then helped the Gators out by beating Arizona State in the Rose. Only after all this was done, did Florida have a clean shot at winning the national title. And I haven't mentioned that Florida actually had to win the SEC championship game in the middle of all this.

Michigan should have to see a similar meltdown to even get this discussion rolling. Let Notre Dame or UCLA knock off the Trojans. Then let Arkansas (vs. LSU) or Florida (at Florida State) lose next weekend. And have the team that does lose then turn around and beat the other in the conference championship game. If this happens, then the case for the rematch can be made...and maybe it can be granted.

In 1996, there was still a one-loss BYU team sitting out there that I would have preferred to see get a shot at the top dog, rather then sending Florida in there again. Even in the event of a meltdown, I'd still prefer to give a one-loss Big East champ a chance this year. The odds that they would win are quite long, but if they can pull it off, who's to deny them the crown?

ABC's Bob Davie spoke for rematch proponents yesterday, when he made the sound-bite friendly argument that the best two teams should play in Arizona, and that Michigan and Ohio State were clearly the best two teams. I would argue that the team that should go to Glendale as the #2 team is the one who can best fill in this sentence--"If_____________ beats Ohio State, how can you not say they're national champs?

I can fill in that sentence with a one-loss SEC champ. I can fill it in with one-loss Southern Cal. I can even fill it in with a one-loss Big East champ. The issue is not who's second-best. The issue is who deserves to be #1 if they can beat Ohio State.

There's only two contenders I have trouble filling in that sentence with. One is Michigan. Yesterday's game was not as close as the score made it sound. The Wolverines went to halftime in serious trouble, down by 14 points. In spite of their comeback, the reality is that not once did they have the ball in the second half with a chance to tie or take the lead. Not once. When Michigan got close, Ohio State answered. It was a good football game, but not one so outstanding that you can't imagine anyone else possibly playing the Buckeyes. And not so close that a Michigan win in the desert would deserve to supersede yesterday's events.

The other team I can't fill in the sentence with is Notre Dame. Not when they lost so badly to Michigan on their home field. As much as a rematch is unfair to Ohio State, I couldn't see voting the Irish into the title game, and saying with a straight face that them beating the Buckeyes in Arizona is definitive enough to wipe out the Michigan game, simply because the Wolverines lost to OSU in Columbus.

So there's one scenario where a rematch could be justified. If the other major conference champs have two losses, and it's a vote between Michigan and Notre Dame. Otherwise, let's see someone else.

Bo Crosses Over

In a tragically ironic turn of events, legendary Michigan coach Bo Schembecler died this afternoon, after collapsing while taping his weekly TV show.

Schembecler will always be remembered for the epic "Ten-Year War" he and Woody Hayes fought from 1969-78 and helped shape the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry for generations, including my own. He--along with Woody--are the reason fans like myself, who may root for another conference school still feel that somehow the world is spinning correctly on its axis when the Wolverines and Buckeyes are what it comes down to in the Big Ten.

Bo got his first Rose Bowl win in 1980, beating Washington behind scrappy quarterback John Wangler and star receiver Anthony Carter. He got another win in Pasadena in 1988 when his team upset Southern Cal and Rodney Peete. His last Michigan team in 1989 was an excellent team that posted a 10-1 record, and might have been unbeaten if not for special teams' heroics by Notre Dame's Rocket Ismail. Bo lost his final game in the Rose Bowl against USC that year in a hard-fought battle, but that does not take away from the fact he was still winning big when he decided to call it a career.

Our condolences to the Schembecler family and all those close to him. This has been a hard year for Big Ten football coaches. The tragic death of Randy Walker and the gallant fight against a brain tumor waged by Terry Hoeppner almost obscured Joe Paterno's broken leg. This last one, particularly on the eve of the biggest game ever, is a sad climax (at least we hope it's a climax) to the season. Big Ten Country sends up its hope and prayers that St. Peter will escort Bo to the best seat in the Eternal Press Box sometime around 3:30 tomorrow.