Big Ten Country

Upsetting The Applecart

Are we in position to write down the names of Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State and just pencil them in as the teams to fill the top four bowl slots (conference champ, probable BCS at-large, Capital One & Outback)? Maybe. But this weekend has three games that could upset the applecart.

Illinois plays host to Penn State. I've tabbed the Illini as my preseason choice to break into the upper group and snag a New Year's Day bid. They've got the Lions traveling the second week in a row and perhaps suffering a little hangover from Michigan. Illinois has the weapons--Rashard Mendenhall has been dominant on the ground early on, including a 214-yard game against Indiana last week. The Illini also nearly beat a solid Missouri team in their opener. For their part, PSU has got to get their defense a little bit of help. They only ran 60 plays last week, in comparison to Michigan's 86. It' s no wonder the D-line looked broken in the second half. The offensive front isn't Michigan-caliber this week, but facing Mendenhall and Juice Williams while running on empty is risky business. For Illinois, these coming back-to-back dates with the Lions and Wisconsin in Champaign are their chance to finally make a statement to the conference higher-ups.

Michigan State is 4-0 and traveling to Wisconsin. The Spartans are also getting good work on the ground from Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick.  Shannon Shelton at The Detroit Free Press reports that a juco influx has helped the Spartan defensive front, but they will have their work cut out against the big Badger front five. Also of concern is that State's wins over Bowling Green and a very mediocre Pitt squad were less-then-impressive.

Purdue is everybody's favorite as the dark horse possibility to not only get a good bowl bid, but maybe to win a league that lacks a clear frontrunner. With Notre Dame coming to town, there is no real danger they will lose, but it will be interesting to see if they can put the same kind of thumping on the Irish that their rivals have. That will give us a read as to what kind of team Joe Tiller has before Ohio State arrives next week. For now, the Boilermakers are playing it safe and giving ND their due.

Hart's Heisman Chances

Michigan hits a soft part of its schedule starting this week, as they continue their climb out of the shadows. The Wolverines go to Northwestern. The Wildcats are still struggling the post-Randy Walker era, having narrowly escaped Nevada and lost to Duke. Even granting this year's Blue Devil team is better then most, Northwestern is still their only win. Michigan should have no difficulty rolling through this week and next week's game against Eastern Michigan to push to a respectable 4-2 by the time Purdue comes to town.

As the Wolverines emerge from the darkness, Mike Hart should start to emerge in the Heisman polls. ESPN's Heisman watch does not have him registering much right now. But it's hard to see Darren McFadden remaining a serious contender as Arkansas falters. West Virginia's two stars of Slaton and White will split votes. Of the leaders on the board, only Tim Tebow has the name recognition to have staying power, and you can expect John David Booty to move up the list if Southern Cal keeps winning its big games. But if Michigan gets in the mix of the Big Ten race, as appears likely, Hart will get more and more looks. And voters may see he was someone who wasn't AWOL those dark first two weeks.

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Ohio State had its crack at Northwestern last week, and they found their passing game. Todd Boeckman to Brian Robiskie was a devastating combination that lit up the Wildcats. The road won't get any tougher this week. The Buckeyes go up to Minnesota, who has been an absolute sieve defensively. Even though the Gopher offense has score 30+ each time out, they are still 1-3, including a loss to Florida Atlantic. Minnesota also turns the ball over too frequently to keep up with a Tressel-coached team. Turns out that getting rid of Glen Mason wasn't the magic elixir they thought it was.

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Iowa hosts Indiana. with a good chance to get their first conference win. The Hawks confirmed that receiver Andy Brodell is gone for the year, and tight end Tony Moeaki is out indefintely. It's not going to be an easy year for Ferentz's program, but they can hang their hat on defense. Pat Harty at Hawk Central writes how Mitch King is becoming one of the conference's best defenders.

Signs of A Contender In Madison

On the surface, winning a game at home over Iowa by four points when the Hawkeyes were watching injuries pile up from the get-go, might not seem like anything to get too excited about. But watching Wisconsin's 17-13 win on Saturday night, I finally saw a team that looked like they might live up to the expectations of those of us who projected them to win the Big Ten.

Iowa's defense is first-rate and I don't see them ever being beaten decisively. Mitch King was unstoppable in the interior of the defensive line and Kenny Iwebema remains a force on the outside. And the Hawks demonstrated again just how well-coached they are. They were on the road with a young team and didn't make any mistakes. In the end, they nearly stole a win, and they sent a clear message that even if this isn't a big year, no one's going to ring up style points against them.

Wisconsin was able to counter with an aggressive defense that turned in a shutdown effort. With the exception of an inexplicable meltdown right before halftime (a meltdown aided considerably by a horrid no-call on what should have been offensive interference on the Iowa touchdown), the Badger defense was in complete control for the first time all season. And for all the problems the Iowa D gave them, the UW offensive front was able to assert itself as the game wore on and P.J. Hill went over the 100-yard mark by taking it over in the fourth quarter.

UW still has some issues to deal with--they'll have to play D against more potent offensive threats, and they must take better care of the football then they did on Saturday night. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 is not a stunt that can be repeated. But the performance of the defense and the offensive line was a breath of fresh air in Madison.

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Ohio State made its own statement with a demolition of Northwestern.  Tim May and Ken Gordon of The Columbus Dispatch debate whether the 58-7 romp was a question of the Buckeyes being that good or the Wildcats mailing it in.

The Ghosts of Ann Arbor Rise Again

After Saturday in Ann Arbor I was reminded of a quote by baseball's most famous Michigan alum, Derek Jeter. Trailing late in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to the Red Sox, Jeter told his mates to keep their heads in it, that "the ghosts will show up eventually." Sure enough, they did. And Jeter's alma mater had their own ghosts that didn't take long to appear and help Michigan continue its mastery over Penn State.

It was early in the game in Ann Arbor when Penn State took a chance it didn't need to take, and made the mistake they couldn't afford to make. They lined up Anthony Morelli in the shotgun on third and long. Morelli was pressured and fumbled. Michigan got it around the ten, and took it in for the quick 7-0 lead. PSU never pulled even and the Wolverines were able to control the tempo throughout on the basis of that early score.

Michael Hart staked his claim for the Heisman with a convincing 153-yard performance because the UM offensive line staked out their turf. Coming into this game I was starting to back off my preseason concerns over the youth of the Lion defensive front. But Michigan brought these concerns back full-bore with a dominating performance, and from the middle of the second quarter on, Hart kept Michigan in control of the game.

Lion fans are in an uproar over yet another loss to Michigan and what is perceived as an unimaginative offense is taking the heat. But the one time PSU got creative, it cost them a touchdown. They lost another fumble around the Michigan 10, and Morelli overthrew an open Deon Butler in the end zone on another red zone trip that ended in a field goal. The Lions were in position to win, and just didn't make the plays to do so. Michigan did, and like Jeter's Yankees, they've reminded us there are some teams you never count out too quickly.

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Michigan's rival in East Lansing became the latest team to claim a win over Notre Dame behind 144 yards from Javon Ringer. The Irish did get a running game, with James Aldridge going for over 100 yards. But the best prospect for a win in their first eight still slipped away, as the Spartans pulled away late. Rakes of Mallow has a look.

Michigan's Chance To Prove It

If Michigan is back, this Saturday is the chance to prove it. Never mind guaranteeing a win over Notre Dame the way Michael Hart did. If the Wolverine running back really wants to put himself out on the line, let him guarantee a win over Penn State. Or even better, guarantee a Big Ten title. Now's the time for Michigan to show they're still the team everyone has to come through on the way to Pasadena.

The Wolverine psyche must be in better shape after last week's thumping of the Irish, but we should still assume the problems that led to those defeats are still in existence. Namely, the defense has not been able to stop anyone (well, other then teams who have not scored an offensive touchdown against anyone). Penn State will play it close to the vest offensively, so it probably won't get out of hand the way it did in the first two outings this year, and the last two outings last year. But Michigan can't assume it will hang a ton of points on this defense to bail them out. 21 may be all it takes for a Lion win. Michigan would have a tough time matching that with Henne on the field. Without him--and despite some intriguing rumors to the contrary, he's still assumed not to play--it's impossible to imagine UM hanging up 20+ points unless Penn State implodes with turnovers.

As for Penn State, they will have to take some shots down the field and utilize the quality of their receiving corps. But those should be carefully targeted shots and at a position on the field where an interception won't set up Michigan for gift points. Until proven otherwise, the Lion defense is not going to give up a game. If I were PSU, I'd make a freshman QB be the one that proves otherwise.

Down in South Bend, the Irish will look to get on track against Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a hot start, though that is hardly new. Shannon Shelton in The Detroit Free Press writes that MSU must convince fans they can win after the fourth game of the year. As for Notre Dame, Rakes of Mallow has a look at why things are so bad.

Emerging Rivalry Renews In Madison

Madison might not sound like an ideal vacation resort for most people. But for Iowa, it's proven itself a splendid little place for a weekend getaway. In 2003 & 2005 the Hawkeyes came here in November. In '03, both teams were playing for an Outback Bowl bid. Iowa knocked Jim Sorgi out of the game, rallied from a double-digit deficit and then held off a last-ditch UW drive in the end zone. In '05, it was the final home game for Barry Alvarez. After a shaky first half, Iowa asserted itself on the ground and whipped the Badgers into submission for another road win. In between, they welcomed Wisconsin to their house in '04 and merely denied Alvarez a fourth Rose Bowl bid in the season finale. While UW got the monkey partially off their backs last year with a win in Iowa City, they need to defend their home turf on Saturday night with ESPN's prime-time lights on.

The key issue in this game is going to be what happens when the Hawkeye offense is on the field. Wisconsin's defense has taken a half to get going throughout the non-conference schedule, but there has been little evidence forthcoming that Jake Christiansen and the Iowa attack can take advantage of this. The more competent battle will take place when UW has the ball. The Hawkeye defense is virtually airtight, not even surrendering a touchdown in last week's shocking loss. But Wisconsin has weapons on offense, and P.J. Hill will look to establish himself as an early conference MVP candidate. A big question will be whether this is a game when the loss of explosive receiver Paul Hubbard and the sparse number of career starts by Tyler Donovan will come back and haunt the Badgers.

Iowa-Wisconsin is the emerging rivalry in this conference, given the closeness of the programs on a competitive level, as well as the numerous ties and friendships among the coaching staffs, notably the close relationship between Barry Alvarez and Kirk Ferentz. On Saturday night, Iowa desperately needs to rebound. Wisconsin needs to re-establish its turf and keep its national hopes alive.

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Ohio State will not be tested this week, as they play Northwestern. Around The Oval has a look at linebacker James Laurinaitis, who joins Penn State's Dan Connor in the race for best linebacker in the Big Ten.

Michigan & The BCS Problem

Michigan's collapse and then possible resurgence threatens to throw a monkey wrench into the Big Ten's BCS chances. I'm not referring to the chances of a Big Ten school playing for the national championship, but the lucrative question of whether this league's second place team will get an at-large spot to a major bowl game.

Under the current format, ten teams get BCS bids (The national title game, plus the Fiesta, Rose, Orange and Sugar must be filled). Six are automatically awarded to the champion of each major conference. With four at-larges to give out, the Big Ten's chances are pretty good of getting one. This season, Notre Dame will obviously not be a candidate for a bid. And with Boise State's loss, the odds of a mid-major jumping up a stealing a slot isn't real likely. So it looks to be already settled that the four spots will all go to runner-ups in the major conferences.

The Big Ten runner-up is almost certainly going to be more attractive then the Big East runner-up, so now the group of competitors for the slots is down to five. When you consider the SEC & Big 12 play championship games, and that the loser of those games has diminished bowl appeal, you further enhance the Big Ten runner-up's odds of being chosen over them. Basically, in a year when Notre Dame or a midmajor is not a contender, it's almost mathematically impossible for the Big Ten not to get two bids.

But with Michigan's badly damaged resume, what if the Wolverines finish second? A 6-2 conference season for them is hardly out of the question. And at 8-4, they aren't going to get a BCS bid, unless we're in for a year of pedestrian mediocrity everywhere. The conference would lose significant dollars, as well as the prestige that comes from multiple teams playing in the biggest events. The Big Ten has a clear interest in an all-or-nothing proposition for the Wolverines--either win the conference, get the automatic and let a Penn State/Wisconsin/Ohio State runner-up take an at-large. Or just take a Champs Sports Bowl bid and be happy. Anything in between is a negative for the league.

Does Anyone Want This League?

League play starts next week with some big games on tap, but the results of the last three weeks leave one scratching their head and wonder if anyone wants to step up and win this conference. Michigan finally made a statement with its rout of Notre Dame. But while this may have averted the worst for the Wolverine program, it will take more then beating what is suddenly appearing as the worst ND squad of our lifetime to restore Lloyd Carr's team to its usual status.

Wisconsin went to 3-0 and stayed in the Top 10. But the defense again waited until the second half to show up against a non-descript opponent in the Citadel. Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes that UW is not all there yet.

Penn State also went to 3-0, but their offense waited a half to show up before finally dispatching Buffalo. While Lion fans can't be alarmed about giving up 24 points--most of them came against the reserves--the slow-starting offense is a pattern. Starting halfback Austin Scott fumbled twice, and it looks like he's no longer the clear-cut #1 back in the Valley.

And most stunningly, Iowa went to Ames and lost to 0-2 Iowa State. Almost as unlikely as the loss, was that the defense gave up a late drive for the winning field goal. While it's hard to pin too much blame on a unit that didn't allow a touchdown in the 15-13 loss, the failure to close it out when they were up a point in the closing minutes to a weak team is an eye-opener.

One team that did stand up and be counted was Ohio State. The Buckeyes played their first big game of the year up in Washington and they got back to Tresselball, winning the turnover battle 4-0 and pulling away in the second half. Around The Oval tells us what we learned from this game.

Everyone gets a fresh start on Saturday when the conference schedule starts. And a lot of teams have a  lot of improving to do.

Michigan & ND's Tales of Woe

For the most part I haven't made too much of Michigan's woes this season. Other then a post right after the Appalachian State shocker and some brief mentions where it was relevant to related subject (re: Penn State's national title hopes) I haven't dwelt on this too much. The main reason is that there really seems so little to say. This seems to be a very cut-and-dried case of a program just not showing up and unless you have inside access to the UM program it's difficult to say if and when they'll break out of it. Now we're on to the showdown with Notre Dame in a couple days, and it's been reduced to a question of which coach will be getting the most heat come nightfall.

The problems of Michigan and Notre Dame are getting the same attention in the press, but they are different in nature. The Irish struggles were quite foreseeable--in fact, in virtually all cases everyone did foresee it. I know of no serious prognosticator who had ND enjoying a big year. It was generally accepted that they were going to have to survive early and make a run in November, ultimately pointing to 2008. Because the problems were predictable, we can make two assumptions--one is that things won't improve anytime in the immediate future. The growing process is going to have to run its course. But on the sunnier side, they are almost certainly going to improve at some point, either late this year or by opening day next year.

Michigan, on the other hand, has no ready solution, particularly with Chad Henne out. The only possible explanation for these early losses is an underlying problem in the team's psyche. There's no telling when it may turn. But on the positive side, it could turn right away, Henne could come back and this team could still play like it's capable. And like everyone else, they're still 0-0 in the Big Ten.

As a final footnote heading into the weekend, one team not getting nearly the ink it should (including in this space) is Iowa. The Hawks are playing shutdown defense, and the passing game showed some signs of life last week against Syracuse. If they take care of Iowa State in Ames this Saturday, they should be in the championship conversation as we head into league play.

Penn State All The Way?

Is Penn State national championship-caliber? Walt Moody at Centre Daily says that maybe those who thought they were aren't so crazy after all--

"The reason the picture is looking rosier for the Nittany Lions is that the rest of the Big Ten’s supposed elite has looked so mediocre over the opening weeks..."

Here are the elements working in PSU's favor, along with some cautionary points on each one.

--Michigan's complete collapse. Penn State would benefit from a Wolverine win over Notre Dame this weekend. The Lions need to go into Ann Arbor on September 29. That's likely too early for Lloyd Carr to have all the problems fixed by, however you wouldn't want to be the team betting the odds that any Michigan team would lose four straight at home.

--Wisconsin looking beatable. This one's tough to say. I was skeptical of the Badgers' 42-21 opening win over Washington State, but we really have no idea if beating WSU at home by three touchdowns is any less impressive then beating Notre Dame at home by three touchdowns.

--Ohio State's youth. The Buckeyes are still putting all the pieces in place. They may have them there by October 27 when they play the Nittany Lions, but that game will be in Happy Valley. I have a very hard time picturing Penn State losing this game under the lights.

--The schedule in general. Along with Ohio State, both Wisconsin and Iowa have to come to Beaver Stadium. Can anyone really picture that defense losing a game on its home field?

Penn State will have to get a little bit more out of its offense if they are to go the distance. But not much more. You can't beat a team you can't score against, and I have not seen an offense in the Big Ten that is ready to put up points against this D. I think the question will be whether PSU will be ensnared in a trap game in the road. Not only Michigan, but also Illinois loom ahead.

I don't know that Penn State will go undefeated and I'm not even ready to anoint them the conference favorite. But they are the team who has at least shown the potential to make a national splash before it's over.