Big Ten Country

Positioning For New Year's

It isn't the game involving the #1 team in the country. And it isn't the one that ABC chose for the 3:30 EST television slot. But Penn State-Purdue is the most quietly significant game on the Big Ten docket this week, with both teams in the hunt for bowl bids in the Capital One or Outback.

Nittany Nation is depressed after Saturday night's home debacle, and according to Black Shoes Diaries it's not going to get better. But Penn State is still the best bet to wind up in the Capital One Bowl if they can win their last three games. They'd have wins over Wisconsin & Purdue and no bad losses to speak of if they can get to 9-3. For the Boilermakers, they've still only lost to Michigan and Ohio State. If they sneak out of Happy Valley with a win they become a serious contender for at least the Outback and maybe even the more coveted spot in Orlando at one o'clock on New Year's Day.

Key to the game is going to be whether Penn State can establish Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster on the ground early and get control of the tempo away from Tiller. It will also be interesting to see if PSU defensive coordinator Tom Bradley tries to attack Curtis Painter with pressure or whether he drops back. The Lions have done better the last couple seasons when they go after people, but the inability of the offense to play catchup has to give Bradley pause for turning his guys loose. Overall, it will be a good test for the Purdue offense, as Tom Kubat of The Journal & Courier reports.

                                         ************
The game ABC will be televising is no slouch. Michigan goes to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. UM can lose one game and still be in position to get the Rose Bowl bid against Ohio State. But they are playing to keep control of their hopes for an outright championship, as well as the chance for a BCS at-large bid if they should lose to the Bucks. Michigan State is playing to get back into a bowl game and perhaps move up the prestige ladder of December games. And when all is said and done, both teams are playing for good old-fashioned hate. Michael Rosenberg at The Detroit Free Press reports that Mark Dantonio has adopted the approach of his mentor, Jim Tressel--embrace your rivalry game, don't run from it.

Wisconsin Defense Delivers

Big Ten Country was live in the press box for the IU-Wisconsin game this past Saturday in Camp Randall. The Badgers jumped on the Hoosiers early in coasting to an easy 33-3 win. One week after James Hardy lit up Penn State, there was no real attempt to involve him in the offense. UW defensive back Jack Ikegwuono drew the coverage assignment, and he apparently commanded more respect from the Hoosier staff then did PSU's Justin King. IU just threw the ball to the other side all day long, and without Hardy, Indiana could not even think about keeping up with Wisconsin.

P.J. Hill left the game early on. He is expected back for Ohio State, but that's far from certain. What is certain is that the running game did bog down when he was out. Wisconsin has to be heartened with their defense, a unit that played its best game of the year, but they have to have Hill if there is to be any chance of winning in Columbus. Backup Lance Smith-Williams still cannot travel for road games.

More complete coverage of both this game and the entire Camp Randall experience will be forthcoming this week, replete with photos. Stay tuned.

                                        ************
Purdue and Illinois both had to use their ground games to survive scares. The Illini were pushed hard by Ball State, and only 189 yards from Rashard Mendenhall pulled them through. In West Lafayette, Curtis Painter was kept in check by the Northwestern defense, but the Boilermakers showed they could get physical, piling up over two hundred yards on the ground. The bulk of the damage was done by Jaycen Taylor. Brendan Murphy at The Journal & Courier reports that the Purdue defense was glad to mute talk of a shootout.

We're heading into November and the fight for bowl bids is on in earnest. Big Ten Country's updated projections are posted on the lefthand side. Throughout November, we'll keep up on guessing both the national and conference pictures for who's going where.

Buckeyes Dismantle Penn State

I know I've been guilty of underrating Ohio State the past couple seasons, and I was beginning to suspect that I'd thrown my preseason precautions about Penn State to the wind too early in jumping on the Lion bandwagon. But I didn't expect that both tendencies would be exposed as thoroughly as they were on Saturday night.

It wasn't just that OSU completely dismantled Penn State in every way possible. It was that it only took a couple possessions of watching the game--possessions in which the Lions grabbed an early 7-3 lead--to get a handle on where this night was going. The Buckeyes just have a talent base that is vastly superior to what the Lions have. Watching Penn State play looked like...well, like watching a team in black shoes. They looked slower, smaller and less athletic. Ohio State poured on 284 yards of offense in the first half alone and Chris Wells ran all over the young PSU defensive front.

Even more impressive was the way Todd Boeckman distributed the ball. The passing game was no longer exclusively focused on Brian Robiskie. Catches were spread out as though Troy Smith had returned for an extra year of eligibility. The Buckeye offense may be peaking and rounding into form at the right time, and this year, a top-caliber defense is playing along with them. The win was validation for OSU's perfect record, and a stinging defeat for the Nittany Lions.

                                        ************
Michigan kept their end of the bargain in moving toward another season-ending battle with the Bucks for an outright conference title. After an early turnover dug them a hole, the Wolverines beat Minnesota 34-10. Chad Henne and Mike Hart didn't play, but the running tandem of Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor rolled up a combined 289 yards on the ground. Both Henne and Hart are expected to play next week, but UM is now heading into a more difficult three-game stretch that will conclude with Ohio State. While OSU is peaking offensively, it remains to be seen if the on-again, off-again playing time that Henne & Hart have been confined to will hurt Michigan's offensive cohesion.

The Biggest Battle Yet

The Big Ten's biggest game to date is set for Saturday night in State College. With the ABC lights on for a prime-time 8 PM telecast, Ohio State brings in its #1 ranking to face the Nittany Lions, who can put themselves in prime position to get a major bowl bid with a victory.

Penn State's calling card is its defense, but that defense was lit up last Saturday by Indiana and didn't play particularly well against Illinois. They've played well at home and still rank 9th nationally against the run, but the inconsistency has to be a source of concern for Joe Paterno.

The key player will be defensive back Justin King. He was beaten badly by James Hardy last week, as the Hoosier receiver almost singlehandedly carried his team to an upset. Ohio State's passing game is similarly one-dimensional, focusing primarily on Brian Robiskie. If King can take away quarterback Todd Boeckman's favorite target one-on-one, the Lions will be able to sell out and stop the run. Chris Wells ripped off a 221-yard game against Michigan State last week, but I believe a good defense can stop any good back if it's able to focus on them. King's coverage of Robiskie will determine if the Lion D can do that.

There won't be any shortage of noise at Beaver Stadium. I was there two weeks ago for the UW-Penn State game and it's easily the loudest stadium I've ever been in. And Jeff Rice at Centre Daily reports that everything's amped up for Ohio State. In my current bowl projections that are on the lefthand side, I'm still projecting the Lions to make a BCS game. So I'm sticking with them to win Saturday night and on out through the rest of the year.

                                         ************

Indiana takes the Kellen Lewis-to-James Hardy show up to Madison this weekend for a date with the Badgers. UW has two excellent corners in Jack Ikegwuonu and Alan Langford they can use to cover the big receiver. But this game could be, as Lee Corso might put it, closer then experts think. Terry Hutchens of The Indianapolis Star wonders if there's really any reason to believe Wisconsin is better then IU right now.

Minnesota's Madness Bites Back

Minnesota visits the Big House on Saturday for the 3:30 EST ABC telecast. It's hard to find a bigger mismatch on the Big Ten slate this week, but somehow this game will get a key TV slot.

The Gophers are having a disastrous season and it's one they brought entirely on themselves. After blowing a big lead to Texas Tech in last year's Insight Bowl they then blew a mental gasket and fired Glen Mason, who had turned a moribund program into a perennial bowl team. Big Ten Country called it madness from the start, and while I'm certainly wrong on my share of predictions, this hasn't been one of them. Minnesota is 1-7 and coming off a humiliating loss to North Dakota State.

Minnesota's problem is simple: they got greedy and decided what Mason was doing wasn't enough. They had to get to "the next level." They got there. Just in the wrong direction. With a new stadium on the way, there was no reason to think Mason couldn't have gotten them into a New Year's Day bowl eventually. Now they have to work that much harder just to get back to the pre-established level. It won't get easier on Saturday when three freshman start in the secondary. But at least AD Joel Maturi has ensured his team won't suffer the humiliation of losing a bowl game again.

                                        ************

Purdue looks to put together its second straight win and give itself a chance of appearing on January 1. If the Boilermakers can beat Northwestern, they'll set themselves up for a November game at Penn State that will have serious bowl implications. Tom Kubat at The Journal & Courier reports that the words of Joe Tiller are resonating with the seniors right now.

Illinois goes out of the conference to play Ball State. BSU nearly beat Nebraska in Lincoln this year, so Ron Zook's team can't be too cavalier. But given how bad the Cornhuskers have proven to be, the odds are that this is a nice pick-me-up game for the Illini to snap a two-game losing streak.

                                       ************ 

I stopped by a local Barnes & Noble last night and picked up the first college basketball preview magazine of the season. Big Ten Country doesn't move into covering hoops seriously until the Big Ten-ACC challenge, but at quick glance the league looks top heavy this year. Michigan State appears to be a clear favorite, and Indiana's looking like a clear second. We'll see what happens in the parade of preseason tournaments that will be starting up in a couple weeks.

IU Offense Nearly Pulls It Out

Last week I opined that while Indiana's tandem of Kellen Lewis to James Hardy was potent, it wasn't nearly enough to upend Penn State last weekend. I guess that proved to be the case, but they sure came a lot of closer then I would ever have imagined.

The Hoosier offense moved the ball at will against the Nittany Lions in the 36-31 PSU win. All four of Indiana's touchdown drives were 80+ yards. This wasn't a case of the typically medicore Lion offense giving up the ball and/or field position. Nor was it a case of IU suddenly finding balance in their attack. Lewis & Hardy were just that good. The quarterback threw for over 300 yards while Hardy hauled in a stunning 14 catches against presumed All-American corner Justin King.

Penn State's push for a major bowl bid was saved by four Indiana turnovers. The Lions also ran the ball well, as the tandem of Evan Royster and Rodney Kinlaw combined for over 130 yards. While Anthony Morelli didn't have a huge game, he spread the ball out to his collection of receivers, and the wideouts had their most productive game of the year.

Indiana is only one win away from being bowl-eligible. Penn State was fortunate to escape. Black Shoes Diaries breaks down the game.

                                         ************
Quarterback-to-receiver potency was the story up and down the state of Indiana. In West Lafayette, Purdue was getting back on track and Curtis Painter was getting reacquainted with Dorien Bryant in an easy win over Iowa. The latter had nine catches for 167 yards after being a non-factor in losses to Ohio State & Michigan. Painter broke the 300-yard plateau as the Boilermakers prepare for a push for a New Year's Day bid. Afterwards though, the primary praise from Joe Tiller came for his defense.

                                         ************
Wisconsin blew out Northern Illinois. On the surface that doesn't seem like much, and it probably isn't, as the Huskies are having a bad year in the MAC. But it is worth noting that UW played much better defense in the 44-3 rout then they did in a similiar type game early in the year against the Citadel. We'll see if that carries over when the Badgers return to Big Ten play.

More Then Hart

Michigan may not have had Hart in uniform on Saturday night in Champaign, but they showed they had plenty of heart. Carlos Brown stepped in for Michael Hart and delivered a 113-yard effort against Illinois. With Mario Manningham having a 100-yard receiving night, it was enough to put the Wolverines over the top and win a hard-fought game in the fourth quarter.

It was a satisfying win for Lloyd Carr, and it had to be equally frustrating for Ron Zook. This was a game Illinois had every chance to win and their own mistakes cost them. They had double-digit penalties. They let foolish penalties keep Michigan drives alive. In short, they made the mistakes that teams make when they have the talent to win championships, but the maturity level is not yet there.

                                        ************

Ohio State kept their ship on course with a workmanlike win over Michigan State. It wasn't as close as the 24-17 makes it sound. The Buckeye defense was dominant. Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick were completely shut down. MSU's only two touchdowns were scored by the defense, and after falling behind 17-0, the Spartans still weren't able to close to within one score until less then four minutes remained.

Jim Tressel's squad also pounded the ball on the ground, with Chris Wells romping for 221 yards. But the story of the day in the one town in Central/East Ohio not in a baseball-induced depression right now is the defense. Bob Hunter at The Columbus Dispatch reports that this D gets no satisfaction and that's a good thing.

                                        ************ 

At the start of the season, observers circled the USC game as the conclusion of the first part of Notre Dame's season--one where they would play eight probable bowl teams. That part of the schedule came to an end in much the same way it began. Routed at home with no offense to speak of. At 1-7, ND goes into a bye week before what it hopes will be a November renewal against a softer schedule. Rakes of Mallow looks at the particulars of the awful 2007.

Prime Time Champaign

Michigan has been quietly building steam with each passing week. Now they step onto the prime-time stage for the first time this season with a chance to demonstrate to the nation that they're back and the historic early losses are a forgotten memory. The Wolverines travel to Champaign, where the Illini have a little proving of their own to do. Last week, Illinois was not ready for prime-time in the theoretical sense. A loss at Iowa showed the lack of consistency needed to get over the top. But beat Michigan on national television, and they're right back to being in the mix of it.

Lloyd Carr's team has done some minor shuffling on the offensive line and is getting better play up front. The lineman will have to be ready, as it may be Carlos Brown rather then Michael Hart they're blocking for. The Detroit Free Press reports that even Hart's mother doesn't know if he'll play.

On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have to be concerned that Juice Williams fits the mold of quarterbacks who have given UM fits lately--the running, spread the field type of QB. I have said before and will say again, I think style is being overrated. Michigan was simply not ready to play against Appalachian State and let it carry over into Oregon. This game will tell us a little more about whether it was philosophy or execution that was the source of the trouble for Ron English's defense.

Illinois hasn't beaten Michigan since 1983. Not coincidentally, that was the last time the Illini went to the Rose Bowl (though they did win the Big Ten in 2001, but ended up in the Sugar under the new BCS format). A victory here keeps that hope alive, and would be the perfect way for Ron Zook to celebrate his new contract extension.

                                        ************
Penn State goes to Indiana for a noon EST kickoff. The Lion offense has been rejuvenated by a change in strategy, reports Jeff Rice of The Centre Daily Times. It's the offense of Indiana that's on the mind of Joe Paterno though. The Hoosiers' combination of Kellen Lewis to James Hardy through the air is a potent one. But as talented a receiver as Hardy is, you can't beat a good defense being a two-man show. Lewis & Hardy may have a few moments, but I can't see them putting up the kind of offense they need to pull off an upset. Given the priorities down at IU, it's unlikely even a win would get everyone's mind off the latest recruiting problems surrounding Kelvin Sampson.

The Spirit of '98

Michigan State is hoping to recapture some of the spirit of 1998. That year, they went into Columbus to face top-ranked Ohio State and came away with an earth-shattering 28-24 upset win. Mark Dantonio was an assistant on the staff of Nick Saban, who was on the East Lansing portion of his Coaching Across America tour. Dantonio hopes he can find some of the old magic. Coincidentally, 1998 also happened to be an autumn in which the Indians ousted the Red Sox from the playoffs. One win from the World Series, the state of Ohio hopes the historical analogy has its limits.

The Spartans run the ball very well, with Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, and if they can get a lead it could be interesting to see if they can manage it. If MSU does run the ball well with Ringer, they can thank the results of some test scores for why he's not on the other sideline. 

But in the end, Michigan State is going up against a defense that has been airtight and MSU has had problems cashing in their red zone opportunities. They can't get in a scoring race, and they haven't defended the pass all that well. None of which bodes well for trying to escape Columbus with a win.

                                        ************
This was the right point in the schedule for Wisconsin to draw Northern Illinois. With a game against the struggling Huskies this week and a home date with Indiana next week, UW can quickly put up a couple wins and get to 7-2. That won't solve the tangible problems that have been exposed the last two weeks, but it might help the intangible element of the psyche, as they gear up for November games with both Michigan and Ohio State.

The Badgers got some good news this week with their receiving corps. Paul Hubbard is recovering quicker then expected. On the field, freshman Kyle Jefferson is taking advantage of his chance to play and caught six passes for 124 yards in State College, and was named his team's offensive MVP. A more inspiring story of recovery in the UW receiving corps is the tale of position coach Henry Mason, who continues the road back from a spinal cord injury.

                                        ************
Purdue is doing some shuffling at running back. Kory Sheets' unproductive outings against Michigan and Ohio State, combined with his propensity to put the ball on the ground have led Joe Tiller to look more toward a running back-by-committee. We can look for three or four players to get carries in their home game with Iowa. One of them may be Jaycen Taylor who is rapidly recovering from a broken arm.

Mulligan Time

With the BCS rankings out, now's as good a time as any to take a look at my preseason picks and see what changes have to be made and if I need to take a mulligan on any of them. The rules for taking mulligans on one's picks need to be codified into some type of federal law, but here are my general thoughts:

1)Ideally, the team you picked should be realistically eliminated from doing what you thought they would do. This isn't a hard-and-fast rule, and mulligans are allowed for any reason whatsoever. Maybe you like the way an up-and-comer looks, or you think your preseason pick is showing holes that will be exposed. But the Mulligan Oversight Committee generally wants a decent explanation if you abandon a pick that can still be saved.

2)If you take a mulligan, you can only claim partial credit if it comes through (and not even 50 percent). That part is obvious. Also worth noting is that if your original pick ends up winning, that doesn't make you right. It's worse--it means you were wrong not once, but twice. So without further adieu, here are the picks for the national title game, the major conference championships, the four BCS at-large bids and the other New Year's Day bids for the Big Ten. The original pick is in parentheses and bolded if a mulligan was taken. Explanations are given where they seem warranted.

Big East: West Virginia--I expect the Mountaineers to run the table, and South Florida will stumble at least once.

ACC: Virginia Tech--still controls its own destiny and hasn't lost a league game.

SEC: LSU

Big Ten: Michigan (Wisconsin). The Wolverines have recovered and have Ohio State at home. The Buckeyes will lose in both State College and Ann Arbor, meaning UM can lose one game outside of the season finale and still take the Rose Bowl bid.

Big 12: Oklahoma (Nebraska). Did I really take the Huskers? Yeah, I did. It makes my Wisconsin pick look insightful by comparison.

Pac 10: USC--like West Virginia, they run the table and get the help they need.

BCS At-Large Bids (4): Cal, Penn State, Texas, South Carolina. The Gamecocks lose to Florida and with it the SEC East. But at 10-2 and not having played a conference title game, they are an attractive pick for the bowls. Same goes for Texas. The Nittany Lions win out, and at 10-2 are a juicy prospect for a major bowl. Coming off this list is UCLA (whom I regrettably said would be undefeated going into Southern Cal) and Auburn.

Big Ten New Year's Day Bids: At 10-2, Ohio State is Capital One Bowl bound. Illinois finishes strong enough to merit an Outback invitation.

National Championship Game: LSU over Oklahoma. I realize I could stick with my original USC pick, given the chaos that has broken out and the fact I like the Trojans to win out anyway. But I am sold on Oklahoma, and will testify to the Mulligan Oversight Committee that their loss was rather fluky and to a decent team. That, combined with the comparative schedules in the Big 12 & Pac-10 lead me to conclude the Sooners have the best bet of winning out the rest of the way. Just like 2003, there's no undefeated team when all's said and done. And just like '03, LSU beats OU in the Bayou for the crown.