Big Ten Country

Big Ten-ACC Challenge: Night Two

Two weeks ago, Michigan State and Penn State hooked up on the gridiron to give the conference one of its better football games of the season. Last night, the same schools combined forces on the hardwood to salvage a smidgen of league pride in the event that needs to be re-named "The Annual Big Ten Beatdown."

The ACC won three of five games last night, to finish this year's event at 8-3 and win it for the ninth straight year of its existence. But in East Lansing and Happy Valley, there were plenty of reasons to smile.

Michigan State doesn't look like the team that lost an exhibition game to Grand Valley State. The Spartans took an N.C. State club that many expect to be in the top four of the ACC and whipped them from pillar to post. Goran Sutton had 16 points and 12 boards inside to key an attack that saw Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan also hit double digits.

MSU already has a tough win over Missouri and a competitive loss to top-ranked UCLA behind them. Destroying the Wolfpack like they did indicates they are quickly rounding into the club that Big Ten observers expected--one that would win the conference championship. Shannon Shelton at The Detroit Free Press declares that Tom Izzo found the chemistry he was looking for last night.

In the meantime, Penn State surprised Virginia Tech. Mike Walker came off the bench and knocked in 17 points. Tech contended for the ACC title to the last week of the regular season last year, although there's not a lot in the cupboard this time around. But the folks in central Pennsylvania aren't throwing anything back.

Elsewhere, Illinois fell to Maryland 69-61. It was a competitive, but sloppy game. Brian Randle and Shawn Pruitt are going to give Bruce Weber a solid inside presence all year long, but they are going to have find someone to hit shots consistently. The head coach candidly told Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun Times he was disappointed with what he got last night.

Ohio State gave North Carolina a run for its money in the first half, but a ice cold stretch after the break enabled the Tar Heels to pull away, 66-55. Thad Matta is rebuilding his team after the early departures of Greg Oden and Mike Conley. It's going to be tough for him to win a third straight conference title. Then again, that's what I thought about his football counterpart this fall. The replenishing process gets another tough test on Saturday at Butler. Bob Hunter of The Columbus Dispatch says last night's game isn't one that lends itself to any real conclusions.

Michigan fell at home to Boston College, rounding out the latest tough year for the Big Ten against its counterpart from the East.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge: Night One

It's ugly again, as the Big Ten is again serving as the doormat for ACC schools to fatten their records. The conference lost four of five last night to the ACC, and combined with Iowa's loss to Wake Forest on Monday, it means the Big Ten must sweep all five games tonight to get its first win in the nine-year history of this event.

We'll start with the positive, but even this one has some dark edges. Indiana beat Georgia Tech 83-79, with Eric Gordon playing all forty minutes. Getting to the line was the winning issue for the Hoosiers. They made 28 free throws, while Tech only attempted 20.

But given Indiana is supposed to be one of our best, this win was a little too close for comfort and Kelvin Sampson's team looked uncharacteristically soft on defense. Coming off a loss to Xavier, it makes one wonder if IU is going to be as good as advertised. They'll get another test on Saturday at Southern Illinois. Bob Kravitz at The Indianapolis Star is quite right when he says this team is one under construction.

Purdue wasn't as fortunate, and let a six-point lead slip late in the game at Clemson. The Boilermakers lost by three in their first test of the season. Jeff Wasburn at Boiler Station has some thoughts on the tough defeat. Matt Painter will return home for a couple games and tune up for key December tests against Missouri & Louisville.

Coming into Duke, Wisconsin had put up home wins against Colorado and Georgia. But the Blue Devils hit some threes early, the Cameon Crazies never quieted and the Badgers lost 82-58 under the watchful eye of Dick Vitale. Mark Stewart of The Milwaukee-Journal-Sentinel takes a look at the wreckage now that the dust has settled. UW will host Davidson this weekend, and then look forward to its grudge match with Marquette the following Saturday.

And elswhere, Tubby Smith and Minnesota lost to Florida State and Northwestern was blown out by Virginia. Like their conference brethren, it was just another typical night at the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.

Assessing Illinois

In the bowl projections and discussion leading up to this, I have mostly focused on Illinois' chances for landing in the Sugar Bowl, the bowl will make the last selection. But the prospect that Ohio State may end up in the national championship game, thus opening up a spot in the Rose Bowl is now very real, thanks to Arkansas' upset of LSU. All it takes is for a Missouri loss to Oklahoma--the Tigers have already been beaten once by the Sooners--and Jim Tressel is on his way to the ball, and the Pasadena selection committee is on its way to needing another dance partner.

Illinois would represent a very attractive choice for the Rose Bowl to pair up with USC. If you look at the available options, there's not a lot in terms of a natural fit for the Rose. Obviously another Pac-10 team is out, so there goes Arizona State. The other contenders for a bid would be Kansas/Missouri or Georgia. The Illini are almost certainly more attractive to the Rose then either Big 12 contender, each of whom would be on a downer after losing its last game. The Dawgs would be an interesting pick, given they will be third or fourth in the rankings when selection time comes on Sunday. But again, given the Rose Bowl's deference to tradition would they pass on a 9-3 Illinois team that closed the season strong?

That might be Illinois' best path for getting into one of the four featured games. Otherwise, they return to hoping for a Hawaii loss or to somehow get chosen ahead of the Pac-10 runner-up.

Illinois should also be angling with Hawaii in another area--that of an invitation to the Heisman ceremony on December 8. Traditionally, five players get invited (there have been instances where fewer came to New York, but they are rare). If you concede an invite to Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Chase Daniel and Pat White, who gets the fifth spot? Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan would appear to have the inside track.

But what about Rashard Mendenhall? The Illinois running back racked up over 1,500 yards on the ground, not far behind McFadden, who may well have won the award with his effort against LSU. Mendenhall carried the offense until Juice Williams found his rhythm late in the season. And he lifted his team to a level no one else thought they could achieve. And he did it against significantly tougher defenses then Brennan had to face. That should all add up to a seat at the Downtown Athletic Club for Mendenhall, though I see precious little evidence to suggest that will happen.

                                        ************
Twelve years after firing Bill Mallory to reach "the next level" Indiana has finally crawled its way back to the status Mallory had achieved to begin with. This time around the Hoosiers seem more appreciative. Bill Lynch was rewarded with a four-year contract.

Bob Kravitz at The Indianapolis Star praised IU for the decision. As does Big Ten Country. Lynch worked under both Mallory and Terry Hoeppner, the only two coaches to have had success in Bloomington. He's got the right pedigree and he succeeded this year in very trying circumstances.

Bowls & Buckets

Bowl projections are updated on the left hand side. The updated projections deal with the major bowls and the Capital One/Outback games. The second-tier scenario has not changed since the post right below this.

It was a good weekend for Ohio State. The Buckeyes watched LSU fall to Arkansas, and the OSU championship scenario is now simple--if either West Virginia or Missouri lose, Jim Tressel's team is next in line to fill a berth in the national championship game. WVA is home against Pitt, while Missouri has a tough Big 12 championship showdown with Oklahoma on Saturday night.

The weekend wasn't quite as kind to Illinois' BCS chances. Hawaii beat Boise State and got respect from the pollsters in doing so. The Rainbows moved up to #12 in the BCS rankings, exactly where they needed to get to assure themselves an automatic bid. It appears Hawaii will have to lose outright to Washington next weekend to lose its BCS bid, and that it makes it unlikely Illinois can get in. With four available spots (after the six automatics to the major conferences after doled out), we can lock in the Big 12 and SEC for one spot. The Pac-10 will without question grab a third, so long as USC & Arizona State both win (and even if they don't, the Pac-10 might still get an at-large). That leaves Illinois and Hawaii to fight over the last spot, and Saturday's results weren't good for Ron Zook & Co.

                                        ************
In the midst of the bowl talk, it's also time to talk a little buckets. College basketball has been slowly warming up these past couple weeks, and it's about time to kick into high gear on the hardwood. The Big Ten-ACC Challenge begins tonight, with Iowa hosting Wake Forest. The Big Ten traditionally gets taken to the cleaners in this event, having lost the previous eight challenges. Maybe the ninth time's the charm. It better be, albeit for personal reasons--with this writer moving to the Baltimore area in less then a month, I need something to hang my hat on.

This year's challenge is higlhlighted by Wisconsin's trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday night, the Illinois-Maryland battle in my future backyard on Wednesday, followed by Carolina-Ohio State that same night. Other then tonight's opener, all the games are on Tuesday and Wednesday and they fill the TV slots with doubleheaders for both ESPN & ESPN2 on both nights. 

Second-Tier Scenario: The Bowl Undercard

Once the BCS and the Capital One/Outback picks have been made, it's time to fill out the bowl undercard. The Alamo (San Antonio) and Champs Sports (Orlando) are next in line, and it's not clear which one picks first. After these two slots are filled, the Insight (Phoenix) has the next choice and then the Motor City (Detroit) fills out the Big Ten field. Any bowl-eligible teams in the conference that are left unchosen must hope that another conference does not have enough eligible teams to fulfill its committments.

The scenario here is very interesting. In addition to whichever team (or two teams) out of the Michigan/PSU/Wisconsin triumvirate is unable to get onto New Year's, you have Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue all sitting on 7-5. These three teams have a huge stake in Illinois getting to the BCS and creating room for an extra invite. As things stand right now, one of these is going to be left out. Iowa and Northwestern are also eligible, but at 6-6, they are not holding their breath waiting for an invitation.

You can mark either Wisconsin or Penn State for the Alamo. If the Badgers are available, it's unlikely the Champs Sports would have interest in the Badgers. It would be the third straight trip to Orlando, and for a lesser bowl game at that. Right now, a lot of PSU fans are preparing themselves for a Champs Sports slot, although that presumes Illinois going to the Capital One and pushing everyone down a slot. The Alamo will have a Big 12 opponent (it will be the top team outside of the Missouri/Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas power quartet. Meaning it will likely be Texas Tech). The Champs Sports also invites an ACC team. This looks to be either Clemson or Virginia, presuming the Cavs lose on Saturday to Virginia Tech.

Of the trio of 7-5 teams, it seems we can surely say that Purdue will be the odd team out. The Boilermakers lost their last two games--to the Spartans and Hoosiers no less. MSU is closing the season on a strong note. Indiana is the feel-good story of the conference as they do it for Terry Hoeppner. So Purdue is the team with the most at stake in Illinois' BCS hopes. If the Illini make it, the Motor City will have room for them. If not, they have to hope for a bid outside the Big Ten hierachy, and that's far from a sure thing.

I suspect Indiana will get picked ahead of MSU, primarily on the allure of the Hoeppner story. If Illinois goes to the BCS, that puts them in the Insight and keeps Michigan State at home in the Motor City, an assignment that seems to work well. The Insight team will play the #6 squad from the Big 12 (let's project that to be Oklahoma State or Colorado). The Motor City invites a high-level MAC squad. The most intriguing prospect for these two games is an Indiana-Texas Tech "Bob Knight Bowl" in the Insight. Although the Red Raiders upset of Oklahoma last week likely put a crimp on that.

A common theme is working through these bowl projections--a whole lot is hinging on Illinois. Ohio State is the only bowl team without a stake in the Illini fight.

On that note, everybody have a Happy Thanksgiving. A Big Ten Country battle between the Packers and Lions is about to kick off and with that, the TV set is beckoning me...and so is my fiancee. So I'll see you all next week when it'll be time to talk a little more hoops.

Florida Outlook: Who's On For New Year's

Ohio State may be watching the national title picture and Illinois may be watching the BCS situation, but three other schools are angling for bids to the January 1 games in the Capital One (Orlando) and Outback (Tampa) bowls. The Cap One gets the first choice of available teams after the BCS field is set, and the Outback picks after that.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State will be watching the Illini fate with great interest. The Capital One Bowl has made no secret of their desire to take Ron Zook's team if they don't end up in one of the showcase games. But how the three teams shake out after that is anybody's guess.

Wisconsin has the best overall record at 9-3, with its two rivals at 8-4. But the Badgers have been to Orlando the last two years, and it's hard to see the Cap One picking them again, particularly when they aren't a clear-cut choice.

Michigan tied for second in the conference with Illinois, and their 6-2 league mark is better then both UW (5-3) and Penn State (4-4). They've got the added drama of it being Lloyd Carr's final game.

The Nittany Lions don't have any claim to be chosen first in this group of three teams, but the presence of Joe Paterno and the ability of PSU to turn on television sets in the Eastern markets have to make the Lions a consideration for the Outback.

Looking at all the factors, I have to think that Michigan will be the first choice in this group of three. The teams have split head-to-head (Mich over PSU, PSU over UW, UW over Mich) so that shouldn't be an issue. As much as the Appalachian State loss hurt their image, the other non-conference loss was to Oregon, a team that looked like a national title squad when Dennis Dixon was healthy.

Right now, my bowl projections have Penn State getting chosen ahead of Wisconsin for the Outback. The frequency of UW's recent trips to Florida (they also went to the Outback in 2004, on top of the back-to-back Capital One bids) combined with the allure the Lions bring combined to lean me toward that pick. Therefore, I was surprised when Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that not only the Outback, but even Cap One is taking a look at the Badgers.

It all adds up to an interesting couple weeks to see what happens with Illinois and who can look forward to a New Year's trip to sunny Florida.

Bowl Picture At The Top

The Big Ten is going to settle into an interesting two weeks, as not much can be considered settled in the bowl picture right now, not until the BCS lineup is in place. We'll see if conference schools are helped by the inaction, as they can watch other teams knock themselves out. Or if they'll be hurt by not getting a chance for that impressive win that keeps them in the consciousness of the voters.

The remainder of this week, we'll break down the bowl picture in three parts--life at the top, as Ohio State hopes for another national title shot, while Illinois is angling for a BCS bid. Then we'll look at the middle class--the intriguing scenarios that can play out for the Capital One and Outback bids on New Year's Day. And finally we'll look at the second-tier bowl matchups leading up to January 1 and try and guess which Big Ten teams will go where and who their opponent might be.

We'll start at the top, because this is pretty cut-and-dried.  For Ohio State to get to the national title game, they must hurdle two of the following three--LSU, the Kansas/Missouri winner and West Virginia. In the case of the first two, it will have to be done directly. LSU will have to lose to either Arkansas at home or in the SEC Championship Game (vs. Tennessee or Georgia) to fall behind the Bucks. And the Kansas/Mizzou survivor would have to stumble in the Big 12 title game (vs. Oklahoma or Texas). OSU will not pass either one because of a change of heart by the voters. Both conference championship games take place the first Saturday of December and are on neutral sites.

West Virginia's a little more interesting. I find it hard to believe that a one-loss team from the Big Ten could be beaten in the polls by a one-loss team from the Big East. And the Mountaineers didn't do anything noteworthy out of the conference. But if the Buckeyes aren't ahead of WVA now, it's hard to see how that's going to change. West Virginia has a high profile game with UConn this Saturday for the Big East title and follows it up with a game against Pitt. This is an area where Ohio State is surely being hurt by not being in action while other teams have a chance to impress the voters.

                                        ************

Illinois has a better chance for getting in the BCS then they are being given credit for. Right now, they are at #17 in the BCS. They need to move up three spots to become eligible, but this is a case of a Big Ten team being helped by the early finish to the conference schedule. Looking at the teams ahead of them, the Illini will almost certainly pick up three spots by attrition. Then it comes down to a race for one of the four at-large bids.

You can concede the Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC one bid apiece. No conference can have more then two teams in the BCS (including the champ), so Illinois is then in a race with the ACC, Big East and Hawaii.

The Rainbows are at #16 right now and still have to play Boise State and Washington. A loss knocks them out. If they can rise to #12, they are guaranteed the final berth by the rules of the BCS. But even if they win out, rising those four spots is no sure thing, given their strength of schedule.

In the ACC right now, Virginia, Virginia Tech and BC all have just two losses. But Tech and Virginia play each other this weekend for the division title. The winner plays Boston College in the conference championship game. So no matter what, any at-large contender is certain to lose a game. The Hokies are the only one ranked high enough to have hopes for holding on to eligibility with a loss. Even if they do, Illinois would still be a more attractive pick. The ACC title game loser will have lost momentum, and their fans will have already made one postseason trip. Whereas the Illini are hot and the fans are hungry to travel.

In the Big East, West Virginia can beat UConn and ensure no at-large team will be eligible. If the Mountaineers are upset, it creates big problems for Illinois. WVA would still be 10-2 and travels well. Illinois would still have a chance, but West Virginia would be an attractive contender for a BCS game.

Thus, Illinois' BCS chances essentially boil down to rooting for West Virginia and hoping for the best in the Hawaii situation. That it's this basic is being overlooked in the media because of the #17 ranking for Ron Zook's team. But the top 13 are all either in the Big 12, SEC or Pac-10 (which have all been conceded bids) or teams leading their conferences (West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Ohio State) and thus not a threat for an at-large spot, at least right now.

Whatever happens, Illinois has reason to celebrate. Ron Zook was named Coach of the Year and Rashard Mendenhall was Offensive Player of the Year, as reported by Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times today.

Rivalry Week Recap: Can Anyone Stop Ohio State?

Ohio State 14 Michigan 3
Can anyone beat Ohio State? It's not just a problem that bedeviled the now-retired Lloyd Carr. The Buckeyes have completely assumed command of this conference. In 2006, Jim Tressel had to replace most of his defense. In 2007, he had to replace most of his offense. He still won the Big Ten outright both years, going a combined 15-1 in the process. Saturday's 14-3 win over Michigan marked his third straight title. With the basketball program in Columbus also sitting on back-to-back outright titles, you wonder if Jim Delaney doesn't want to just ship the trophies out there when school convenes in August and just save the trouble.

Ohio State did it the old-fashioned way on Saturday. Unlike last year's win over Michigan, this one was grind-it-out and surely had Woody smiling in the great press box in the sky. Todd Boeckman's final numbers were 7/13 for 50 yards. And his team won without really sweating after halftime. Winning that way might have even gotten Bo to crack a little smile as he watched the game from Woody's vantage point.

The Buckeyes still have reasonable, albeit outside hopes of getting back into the national title picture. We'll look at that more later this week. For now, they're the Big Ten champs. Again. And they deserve congratulations from around the conference community for the machine-like efficiency that Tressel uses to keep reloading and winning.

                                        ************
Lloyd Carr stepped down today. A nice article by Mitch Albom of The Detroit Free Press reminding everyone what Carr achieved and how he did it. We'll have to see if the Wolverines are really hell-bent on purusing Les Miles at LSU, and if they are willing to wait until potentially January 7 and the national title game to be able to talk to him.

                                        ************
Michigan State 38 Penn State 35
Penn State's defensive collapse was completed in East Lansing, as Michigan State rallied from 24-7 down to take out the Nittany Lions. MSU's offense, led by Brian Hoyer lighting it up to Devin Thomas, was so efficient that it overcome a 3-0 deficit in turnovers. Think back to August--if someone would have told you that PSU would get a 125-yard game from Rodney Kinlaw and win the turnover battle three-zip, would you have guessed that they would still lose a New Year's Day bid in spite of it? That's what happened. The Spartans are bowl-bound, and Drew Sharp at The Detroit Free Press declares that they're no longer hopeless anymore.

                                        ************
Illinois 41 Northwestern 22
Juice Williams continued his late-season surge in Illinois' home finale against Northwestern. Williams put up 356 all-purpose yards. He put his team into a New Year's Day game and kept alive outside hopes for a BCS bid, a longshot horse that some of us think will come through. Rashard Mendenhall broke 100 yards again, solidifying his own case for conference MVP and an invitation to New York City for the Heisman ceremony. Whether he gets either is one thing--but there can be little doubt he's worthy of both.

                                        ************
Indiana 27 Purdue 24
In spite of the presence of Curtis Painter and Kellen Lewis, the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket was settled on the ground. It was Marcus Thigpen stepping forward to be the unlikely hero for the Hoosiers, as they put the finishing touches on what will surely be a bowl season in Bloomington.

The finish won't be as happy at Purdue. As the Boilermakers look for answers, one thing they may not find is a bowl invitation. The ultimate pecking order remains to be seen, but Purdue looks like the #8 team from here and there's only seven committments. They need to hope for either Illinois to get picked for the BCS, pulling everyone else up a notch or for a bid to open up if another conference can't fulfill its committments. However, even if the latter happens, the SEC also has surplus teams available that will probably be more attractive then Purdue. Basketball season might start sooner then anyone thought in West Lafayette.

                                        ************
Wisconsin 41 Minnesota 34
The freshman put on a show in the Metrodome. Minnesota came out looking to make their season with an upset of Wisconsin, and Adam Weber nearly helped them pull it off, throwing for 352 yards. But Zack Thomas was more then up to the challenge for the Badgers, rushing for 250. UW now has a good shot at an Outback invitation.

At Minnesota, they are excited about their potential after the 1-11 season. Perhaps these Gophers will materialize into something much better and Tim Brewster deserves three to four years to develop his recruits. But I can remember a time--like last year for instance, when Minnesota was talking about which bowl they would be invited to. Those years under Glen Mason were hell, weren't they Gopher fans?

                                        ************
Western Michigan 28 Iowa 19
With a bowl bid in their grasp, Iowa let it slip away. The pass defense was non-existent and they lost the turnover battle to Western Michigan. The Broncos 28-19 win, the Hawks finished 6-6 for the second straight year and will be home for the holidays. Pat Hart at Hawk Central says there's no denying Kirk Ferentz has another rebuilding job on his hands.

The Third Saturday of November; Part Two

Ohio State at Michigan (Noon, ABC)
The battle between Michigan and Ohio State is at hand, and The Detroit Free Press has started the festivities by running an anti-Lloyd Carr column as its lead sports story today. The article is astounding, in that a major paper would not only publish such an error-filled piece, but that they would elevate it to their lead. Consider the quote, by the ranter...er, writer, Josh Hachat. The bold part is mine for emphasis--

If Carr loses and the Wolverines fall to 8-4, there's no way anybody in their right mind can say he should stay. Not after this year, which has become an even bigger embarrassment than last year, which was a bigger dose of humble pie than the one previous.

Excuse me, but is the aptly-named Hachat, attempting to say the Wolverines year in 2006 was a bigger embarrassment then '05? Michigan lost four games in 2005, three of them at home. They went to the Alamo Bowl and lost again to Nebraska. They followed up in 2006 by merely ripping off eleven straight wins to start the year before losing a hard-fought game to Ohio State in Columbus. Hachat may recall the Buckeyes were #1 in the country at the time. Michigan then lost the Rose Bowl to Southern Cal--the same Trojan team that played for three straight national titles just prior to that season and was universally acknowledged as the best program in recent history. Mixed in to that year were wins over Wisconsin (the Badgers' only loss) and at Penn State, a team good enough to win a New Year's Day game.

Hachat has a very interesting definition of "bigger dose of humble pie" if he thinks the Michigan's '06 season  was really that in comparison to 2005. More likely, he just needed to get off his own bigger dose of rhetoric to fill his column. If Hachat's intellectual caliber is reflective of Carr's critics, that's the finest testimony the Wolverine mentor could receive.

At any rate, now that Hachat has ensured we already know who's going to make the biggest blunder of this year's Michigan-Ohio State game, let's get on to the matter at hand.

Even sane people recognize how badly Carr needs this win. After building his reputation by owning John Cooper, Lloyd can't get past Jim Tressel. OSU has won the last three games, and four of five in the new era. The last time Michigan won this game was in 2003--which is also the last time they were outright conference champs (their 2004 Rose Bowl team was co-champs with Iowa). Going four years without either is an eternity in Ann Arbor. Ohio State can clinch their third straight league title, the last two of which would be outright, if they get this win.

This is the game Chad Henne and Mike Hart returned to school to play. It's been about beating Ohio State and winning a major bowl game, something that has eluded both proud seniors. They are still the biggest story leading up to the game, with questions about their health status lingering. Everything I've read indicates they both will start, but we'll have to see how long they can go. No matter who plays QB and running back, you still have two very interesting matchups when UM has the ball: Buckeye defensive end Vernon Ghoulston matched up with Jake Long, and cornerback Malcolm Jenkins locked up on Mario Manningham. The Michigan receiver will probably need a big day for his team to win, so his ability to get open and the ability of Michigan to keep Ghoulston out of the quarterback's face will be clear keys to the game.

Penn State at Michigan State (3:30, ABC)
Once the battle for league supremacy is over, everyone can keep the sets tuned to ABC to watch another big game in the state of Michigan. A lot is on the line at East Lansing when the Spartans host Penn State. Michigan State is looking to solidify a bowl bid, and the Lions are playing to try and get as high as the Capital One.

Given the nature of these two programs, it sounds odd to say that the key will be which version of Penn State shows up. But if it's the good Lion defense, then Joe Paterno's team will be in good shape. But if it's the one that tanked at Illinois and looked woefully overmatched against Ohio State, then Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick will be in for a big day. If that's the case, it could get ugly--the Lion offense can't keep up in a scoring race, so the defense has to not only play well, but it has to control field position on top of it.

Since PSU joined the Big Ten, the league has been trying to gin up this game for the Land Grant Trophy as its latest rivalry battle. Black Shoes Diaries gets into the spirit, but encouraging readers to feel the hate.

The Third Saturday of November; Part One

The best day of the Big Ten year is at hand. The third Saturday in November and all the rivalry games. Big Ten football ends when the college game should, gracefully handing the baton over to the NFL stretch drive starting with Thanksgiving. And no third Saturday has been more consequential for more teams then this one. The following four games will all have major postseason impact, and still not be the biggest ones on the board:

Wisconsin at Minnesota
The Badgers are still hoping to angle into the Outback Bowl with a win. No matter what, they're playing for their fourth straight winning conference season, something that didn't seem likely when they licked their wounds after Penn State. But this could be a watch-out game. Minnesota gave Iowa a tough game last week and has a lot of intangibles going for them. They'll be at home. They'll be ready to give everything they've got to salvage Paul Bunyan's Axe from an otherwise wasted season. And UW will be on a downer coming off of games against Michigan and Ohio State.

Wisconsin's got the tangible factors going their way though--better football players and better coaches. One of those players is freshman running back Zack Brown, who came up big with P.J. Hill on the shelf and lived up to the hype that his head coach has heaped upon him.

Northwestern at Illinois
Earlier in the year, Illinois followed up back-to-back wins over Penn State and Wisconsin with a clunker of a performance in Iowa City. Can the Illini avoid a similiar letdown this time around? They'll face a Northwestern team that will be fighting for its life. The Wildcats are 6-5, but the most likely team to be overlooked by the bowls at 6-6 if there's not enough spots to go around.

For their part, Illinois has a shot at the Capital One Bowl and a potential matchup between Ron Zook and Florida. Coming off his surprising performance in Columbus, Herb Gould at The Chicago Sun Times declares that Juice Williams was always destined for big things. Though oddly enough, I never heard those declarations made when the quarterback was turning in 7-for-15 passing games.

Purdue at Indiana
The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket is always intense--you can reasonably argue that it's the conference's best football rivalry. I mean that from this standpoint--Ohio State-Michigan is always huge, but that's because the stakes are always the biggest. In the case of IU-Purdue, the stakes are rarely big, but the intensity is still there simply because of the mutual venom. They truly hate each other just for the joy of doing so, not because one team is the main obstacle to a conference title.

There actually are some stakes this year. Like Northwestern, the Hoosiers can't risk going to 6-6 if they want to be assured of a bid. And even Purdue's not 100 percent secure. A loss would drop them to 7-5, and it's still reasonably possible that all ten bowl-eligible teams could get to that mark. The Boilermakers would be the team on a slide and could conceivably be overlooked. It's not likely, but enough to keep Joe Tiller working extra hard on protecting Curtis Painter from the Indiana pass rush.

Western Michigan at Iowa
The Hawkeyes have to win to get to 7-5, but this game looks like a mere formality. Once they have seven wins, there's no danger of being overlooked. Not with their fan base. Ryan Suchomel at Hawk Central says the fans will help determine where the postseason destination is.