Big Ten Country

The At-Large Landscape

Bowl projections are updated and at the link on the lefthand side. The burning issue in the Big Ten is whether Ohio State can still get an at-large bid if they falter in Ann Arbor. My projection shows them making it, but I wanted to give this issue a little deeper treatment then is possible on the projections page, which are based on my own picks for who's going to win out the rest of the way.

In looking at the race for the four at-large bids to major bowls, one important fact to remember is this--a conference cannot put more then two teams in the BCS, including its champion. The Big Ten was hurt by this last year, when 11-1 Wisconsin was denied a bid. The league will be helped by the rule this time around. So in looking at all the teams that are in the mix for bids, it's helpful to consider that it's sort of like guessing who's going to win a presidential election--the national polls are interesting and maybe even revealing, but the money's in the state-by-state races. Translated into BCS terms, it means that four highly ranked Big 12 teams aren't that relevant. What matters is which four conferences are going to win the bids.

Below is a look at each conference's landscape, as well as the mid-major situation. Other then Michigan and Minnesota, every other school in the Big Ten has a football stake in seeing Ohio State make it in as an at-large (and they all have a financial stake). Two bids to the BCS open up a spot in the New Year's Day games, and further open up a spot down the ladder as the league fulfills its committments. With an astonishing ten teams already bowl-eligible, the question's never been more relevant. So without further adieu, here we go:

Big 12: This conference is a lock for an at-large. OU, Kansas and Missouri are all in the top five. Texas isn't far behind. It's just a question of settling on who. Concede one spot here.

Pac-10: Not quite as much of a lock, but still in very good shape. Between Oregon, Arizona State and USC, two of them should get in. It's best to be safe and concede another spot here.

Big East: West Virginia will win the conference if it beats Cincinnati and UConn the next two weeks. The odds are very good that will happen, and neither the Bearcats or Huskies are a threat to even be eligible for the BCS (you need to be ranked in the top 14 of the final standings) in that scenario. Where it gets interesting is if WVA loses one game and ends up in the at-large pool. They're 10-2 and they travel well. I suspect Ohio State still gets picked ahead of them, but the safest thing is to just see the Mountaineers win out.

ACC: This league is hurting in the at-large race. All their contenders already have two losses. Furthermore, the conference race boils down to a de facto semifinal tournament. BC plays Clemson on Saturday for one division crown. Virginia Tech plays Virginia the following week for the other. So any team that doesn't win the conference is guaranteed to lose one more game. No way do any of them go over OSU.

SEC: This one's the most interesting. Right now, Georgia is sitting on 8-2, while a three-loss Tennessee team controls its destiny for the East title and the right to play LSU in the league championship game. If the Bulldogs win their last two (Kentucky at home, Ga Tech on the road) and don't win the division, they'll be incredibly attractive. But if Tennessee loses a game, and then the Dawgs falter to LSU, the at-large spot suffers. Teams become less attractive to bowls when they lose a conference championship game. The fans are a little down--and unlike Ohio State, there's not as much recovery time, since league title games aren't played until December. More important, a lot of the fan base travels to the championship game and can't pony up the cash for a second trip.

That's the long explanation for why Ohio State and Big Ten fans generally should root for either Georgia to lose one of its last two, or for Tennessee to lose and thus force the Bulldogs into a matchup with LSU. And it's also imperative that LSU win the conference title game, regardless of why they play. The Tigers' pedigree is strong enough to overcome a loss and still get an at-large pick.

Mid-Majors: Hawaii is undefeated, but are currently ranked #16 in the BCS. They need to move up two more spots to get eligible. And if they move up four more spots to #12 they are guaranteed a bid. They can also get in one other way--if they are ranked ahead of one of the champions of the six major conferences. Right now, the Rainbows are ranked five spots ahead of Michigan.

Therefore, it keeps life easier in the Big Ten for either Hawaii to lose, or at least not win impressively enough to move up in the polls. And since this entire scenario is built around a Michigan win on Saturday, they need the Wolverines to close the gap and pass UH in the final standings.

Conclusion
This boils down to a race for two spots, after we concede the Big 12 & Pac-10 their bids. If you go conference-by-conference, you have to think Ohio State looks in pretty good shape to still get picked at 10-2. But it's not a lock, and hopefully the above breakdown helps shed some light on the landscpae.

Odd Effects: Upsets May Have Hurt

It was a middle-class rebellion in the Big Ten on Saturday with Wisconsin's upset of Michigan, followed by Illinois' earth-shattering upset of Ohio State in Columbus. The games sent shock waves through the national title picture and the race for BCS at-large bids. The effects on the Big Ten race were non-existent--it still comes down to the Wolverines and Buckeyes next week, though each team missed a chance to clinch a share of the title going in. But these games will have one more odd effect--they could actually hurt the bowl positioning of Illinois & Wisconsin.

Before you think I've gone off the deep end, hear me out. Illinois, UW and Penn State were settled into a comfortable race for the New Year's Day bids in the Capital One and Outback Bowls. But that presupposed both UM and OSU getting bids to the BCS. Now, that's in serious jeopardy. There is no way that Michigan will get an at-large choice to a major bowl. They will either win the conference or they will not have a ranking high enough to qualify. As for Ohio State, they still would have a good shot at being picked if they were 10-2 and seeking an at-large home. But it's not the lock it would have been if they'd beaten Illinois and there a few realistic scenarios that could have a Buckeye team that loses Saturday being frozen out of the BCS.

Freezing either team out of the BCS means dropping them into the race for the January 1 games in Florida. And that means dropping two, rather then one, of the middle-class trio into the Alamo or Champs Sports bowls played the week between Christmas and New Year's. If this does happen, there's no doubt in my mind that both Illinois and Wisconsin are still much happier with the big wins they got on Saturday. But it's a quirky side effect and we'll have to see how it all plays out.

Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times writes that Ron Zook was very low-key and calm for a man who'd just beaten the top-ranked team in the nation on the road. Ninety minutes up I-94, Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is saying that this is the Badger team everyone expected to see back in August.

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Indiana hurt its bowl chances via the more traditional method of losing a football game rather then winning one. Their torrid 5-1 start now seems a long way off, in the eyes of Terry Hutches at The Indianapolis Star. By beating the Hoosiers, Northwestern pulled themselves to 6-5 and joined IU in the wild race for the bottom bowl bids.

Two other teams also got their sixth wins. Michigan State delivered an enormous bounce-back performance in West Lafayette to beat Purdue. Kudos to Mark Dantonio, who is showing that these are not your father's Spartans (or at least not your older brother's Spartans). They didn't fold after the Michigan heartbreak and now have the new feeling of being bowl-eligible. And Iowa rounds out the quartet of 6-5 squads by beating Minnesota. This year has been an improbable turnaround for the Hawks, claims Andy Hamilton of The Iowa Press-Citizen.

Illinois Up Next In OSU's Run

After their 8-0 start against the soft part of the schedule, I viewed the Ohio State season through the prism of a four-round tournament. The part of the season where they would be tested, and winning the "tournament" meant advancing to New Orleans. The Buckeyes have passed the first two rounds with flying colors, and from this point forward every win has a prize attached to it. Beat Illinois this week and they all but clinch a BCS bid, even if they lose the Big Ten crown (they may have it clinched already, but you never want to be at the mercy of the selectors with two straight losses). After that, it's Michigan for conference. And if you're still standing after that, Jim Tressel can go for his second national title on January 7.

Ohio State has homefield for this game and the matchup looks good for them. Illinois is going to need a huge day from Rashard Mendenhall just to make this a game. Not a good game, but a huge game. Mendenhall is capable--he's now a semi-finalist for the Maxwell Award (most outstanding player), and if he carries the Illini to an upset he becomes the favorite for conference MVP with a possible shot at an invite to New York City in December.

The problems for Mendenhall are twofold. The first is that he's going against one of the nation's stingiest defenses. When a good D decides it wants to take a good back out of the game, they can generally do so. Which brings us to the next problem. Juice Williams hasn't been consistent enough in making plays, either with his arm or his leg, at least against really good teams. That has to change if his team is to have a chance on Saturday.

Finally, there's the Ohio State offense. The Illini D gave up big days passing to both Anthony Morelli and Tyler Donovan, even as they won those games. With Todd Boeckman and the Buckeye passing attack hitting their stride, OSU shouldn't have a problem putting points on the board. Around The Oval opines that Boeckman deserves to be in the Heisman conversation. I think that's starting to push it, but there's no question that Troy Smith's replacement has stepped up to the plate with his performance this year.

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Purdue hosts Michigan State in a game the Spartans desperately need. MSU has the recipe to match up with the Boilermakers. They rush the passer very well, and they can devastate people on the ground. But I wonder if a combination of homefield advantage and Mark Dantonio's team being on a downer after the near-miss against Michigan will be too much to overcome. Tom Kubat at The Journal & Courier reports that run defense is the concern for Joe Tiller's crew.

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Indiana can seal the deal on a bowl invite with a win over Northwestern. The Wildcats, at 5-5, are also playing for their postseason lives. The Hoosiers should be able to move up and down the field, but a key to watch will be if they take care of the ball. Kellen Lewis has shown a propensity to put the ball on the ground when he's running. If he tucks it in, IU can await their holiday destination. As for Northwestern, Larry Watts of The Evanston Review writes that fourth quarter flops are killing the Cats.

Michigan Goes To Madison

This week's Michigan-Wisconsin game won't have the same glitter that seemed likely in preseason. I thought it would be the battle for the conference title. But the most that can happen this week is that a Wolverine loss could prevent them from winning an outright title next week against Ohio State. Even at that though, the Michigan-Ohio State winner will still get the automatic BCS slot.

As for Wisconsin, they need the win to still hold out a chance of getting a New Year's Day bid. In normal years, the Badgers would stand a much better chance of getting a January 1 tee time, but two straight trips to the Capital One Bowl make them a little less attractive for a trip to Florida, particularly when they have lost to both Illinois & Penn State, their competitors for these berths.

But a Wiscy win over Michigan still upsets the applecart and gives them a shot at the Outback bid. And if the Wolverines win, there's still a chance they could get a BCS at-large, even if they lose next week. Not a great chance, but given the way teams are falling left and right this year, 9-3 might be enough.

The most interesting matchups in this game are when Michigan has the ball. Two weeks ago, Indiana did not challenge UW corner Jack Ikegwuonu, and effectively removed James Hardy from the game. Will Lloyd Carr do the same with Mario Manningham? Both players are having big years and this looks to be a showdown of future first-round draft picks.

The other battle is in the trenches. Wisconsin couldn't contain Chris Wells in the second half last week, and now they have Mike Hart staring them in the face. Hart's injuries have realistically cost him a shot at the Heisman. And the running back says his pick would be his powerful offensive tackle Jake Long. The Wisconsin D-Line is going the other direction. Jason Chapman is out for the year. On the other side of the ball, no one is sure if P.J. Hill will play. No matter what way you slice it, Wisconsin looks short of the weapons they need to answer Hart.

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Iowa is in command of its bowl destiny now, with only this week's game against Minnesota and the finale against Wester Michigan to win. Andy Hamilton of The Iowa Press-Citizen writes that Kirk Ferentz stayed steady during turbulent times.

One place that might want to learn from that example is Notre Dame. Rakes of Mallow discusses the coaching status of Charlie Weis. The blog doesn't endorse firing the coach, but acknowledges that losing out could change the picture. ND fans might want to remember two things--they have a coach who has taken their team to back-to-back major bowl games, something that hadn't happened since the early 1990s. However bad this season has been, Weis didn't forget how to coach.

The other thing is a dose of realism--since the retirement of Dan Devine, no head coach not named Lou Holtz has succeeded in South Bend by Notre Dame standards. Is that a sign that every coaching selection has been bad? Or is it a sign that the standards might be out of whack?

Second-Tier Bowl Projections

Big Ten Country's bowl projection page has been updated. But the weekly projections deal with the major bowl bids and the Big Ten's two New Year's Day games in Florida. In the meantime, the conference has ten teams at .500 or better and angling for a nice holiday vacation. Where do they all fit in?

I've got four teams already slotted in on the projection page: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois. But this presupposes one very debatable point--I'm picking the Wolverines to beat OSU. The Buckeyes' record is strong enough to get an at-large slot to the BCS. Because of Michigan's bad start, it's unlikely that they can pick up a bid if they lose another game and don't get the automatic slot. So in going through these second-tier projections, keep in mind that an Ohio State win pushes Michigan into one of the New Year's Day games. Which pushes Penn State or Illinois down into this list. Which pushes somebody out.

There are four bowls prior to January 1 that are committed to taking a Big Ten team. In order of importance, they are Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight and Motor City. In contention for these spots are Wisconsin (7-3), Purdue (7-3), Indiana (6-4), Iowa (5-5) and Michigan State (5-5).

The Badgers and Boilermakers are all but locked in. In fact, Wisconsin can still harbor hopes of climbing on to January 1 if they can beat Michigan in Camp Randall this weekend. Iowa is also very well situated, with games only against Western Michigan and Minnesota. So UW, Purdue and Iowa grab three of the available bids.

Now it's get tough. Indiana plays Northwestern this week in an absolutely huge football game (arguably the first time that statement has ever been uttered in human history). The Hoosiers finish up at home against Purdue, while Northwestern plays Illinois in the finale. Michigan State has to visit West Lafayette this weekend and host Penn State the following. Both games look very competitive, but I'm not ready to pick the Spartans. So I'm crossing them off my short list for the last spot.

I'll take Indiana to get the win over Northwestern and earn the last bid available. From there, we can guess the selections will fall as follows:

Alamo: Wisconsin. The Badgers haven't been here since 2002, and would be a good fit.

Champs Sports: The options here are limited. Purdue played here last year, and presumably the bowl game would not want them back. If by chance, Wisconsin falls in their lap, that's not the blessing it might appear. This game is in Orlando, which is the same place UW has traveled the last two years for the Capital One. Their fans might not get excited about not only going to the same place, but to a lesser bowl. So Champs is praying that Iowa wins out and they can give the bid to the Hawks.

Insight: Purdue. A Big 12 team awaits. One thing that could alter the selection is if the Big 12 foe is Texas Tech. A minor bowl game might jump at the free publicity that comes with an Indiana-Texas Tech game, even if it's not in basketball.

Motor City: Indiana. After Terry Hoeppner's passing, perhaps no team will appreciate December in Detroit as much as the Hoosiers would.

That's the general landscape for the teams below the radar. But they can't lose sight of one thing: They need to be Michigan fans on November 17

Keeping Bowl Hopes On Track

November has arrived and with ten teams at .500 or better, it's a mad push for the Big Ten bowl slots. Up and down the conference on Saturday, teams kept their holiday hopes on track--

--It isn't the biggest game or the program that has the conference talking. But we're going to make this lead a congratulations ode to the Indiana Hoosiers and head coach Bill Lynch. IU survived Ball State yesterday and at 6-4 they are eligible for their first bowl bid since 1993. Considering they have overcome the death of their head coach and have to play and recruit in an environment that isn't exactly football-crazy, this is something for Coach Lynch to be proud of. They aren't home free for an invite yet--with so many teams in contention, this is one year that "bowl-eligible" and "bowl-invite" aren't synonomous in the Big Ten, but Lynch, his staff and his players deserve a tip of the cap. And who knows, says Terry Hutchens at The Indianapolis Star--six wins might just be enough.

--What everyone knew was coming is now official--The Ohio State-Michigan game will be winner-take-all for the conference's automatic BCS slot. Both teams won yesterday and maintained their two-game lead on the field. Even if one team should lose next week, they can still claim a co-championship and the tiebreaker in the rivarly showdown on November 17.

Ohio State got a scare from Wisconsin and trailed 17-10. But they showed they could respond to a cruel reality check, writes Bob Hunter at The Columbus Dispatch. Chris Wells took over this game and with two beautiful touchdown runs of 30+ yards. On both instances, Wells started right, quickly cut back and found the open field on the left side. The Buckeyes pulled away from a UW team that was overmatched and watching injuries pile up, negating a stronger-then-expected performance from Tyler Donovan and Travis Beckum.

Michigan was all but dead in the water in East Lansing, trailing by ten with just over seven minutes to go. But the Spartan defense allowed UM to go the distance in just fifty-three seconds to get back in the game and then Chad Henne won it with a touchdown pass to Mario Manningham late. A hobbled Mike Hart got 110 yards. It was, as Mitch Albom says in The Detroit Free Press, a rally for the ages and one that left MSU with its hearts broken once again.

--Penn State kept itself on track for a bid to the Capital One Bowl with a win over Purdue. The Nittany Lions were able to keep Curtis Painter under control, and Anthony Morelli turned in an efficient outing. That meant the game would be decided by the ground war and the Lion advantage shone through. Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster combined for 210 yards. Receiver Derrick Williams had his best game, producing a touchdown both receiving, as well as the winning score on a run. Purdue couldn't capitalize on Dorien Bryant's opening kickoff return for a touchdown. Jeff Washburn of The Journal & Courier explains that emotions overtook the Boilermakers.

--Illinois' offense exploded all over woeful Minnesota, the one team not in the bowl discussion. Juice Williams had his best conference game of the year and Rashard Mendenhall broke the 200-yard mark. The Illini running back needs to be in the discussion for conference MVP, if voters determine that Mike Hart's injuries cost him too much time. Mendenhall's had some huge games, he's not supported by a consistent passing game and he may help carry his team to a New Year's Day bowl. Whether he wins it or not, that's a not a bad description of an MVP.

--Iowa dug itself a 14-0 hole. But the Hawks responded to Kirk Ferentz' ire and rallied to win in the fourth quarter at Northwestern. Iowa didn't get anything on the ground, but Jake Christiansen played well, and the defense picked off C.J. Bacher three times. It got them to 5-5, and with Minnesota and Western Michigan due up, Ferentz is in good shape to pick up a postseason invite and survive this rough season.

--And there will be no late-season rebound in South Bend. Notre Dame lost to Navy for the first time in 43 years. It's easy to pile on the Irish right now, and given that some of their fans aren't always models of class, it's hard to blame the ND-haters for getting their licks in. But any jibes should be kept directed at the Subway Alumni, and not the coaching staff or players. Gregg Doyle at CBS Sportsline shows the latest examples of the class of Charlie Weis. It reminds me of 2005, after Notre Dame's heartbreaking loss to Southern Cal. Weis made his son go with him to the Trojan locker room to say congratulations, informing the lad that you need to learn how to lose, as well as how to win. One hopes that in this autumn of discontent, Notre Dame Nation will find solace in their head coach's example.

Ohio State's Next Test

Ohio State's push for New Orleans is essentially a four-round tournament that started last week. The Buckeyes scored a decisive first-round win in taking out Penn State. Now they come to a quarterfinal game at home with Wisconsin. Win here, and they can advance to the semis against Illinois and ultimately the finals in Ann Arbor.

No one can say they haven't earned it if they run that gauntlet. And this matchup looks good for them too. Wisconsin will have a hard time going anywhere on offense without P.J. Hill--well, come to think of it they'll have a hard time going anywhere with P.J. Hill. Last week, with the star running back healthy, the Badgers come firing out of the starting blocks and had a 17-0 lead before the students even had all their morning Bloody Marys finished. When Hill left the game with a foot injury, the offense bogged down. And with primary backup Lance Smith unable to travel to road games, that thrusts freshman Zach Brown into the fire. Brown did not run well in his chances last week, often looking tentative.

If Wisconsin can't run, they won't pass well either. Three weeks ago at Penn State, Tyler Donovan got off to a good start. But after the Lions moved out to a 10-point lead and could tee off on Donovan, he struggled badly. If the running game is removed--whether it be by Hill being out, being less then effective or the team falling behind--Donovan is not likely to fare any better this time around.

Historically, the Badgers have played well at Columbus. But this year's matchup doesn't bode too well for them. As Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes, OSU is a tough nut to crack.

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The Big Ten's three "I's" have winnable games in their push for bowl bids and/or positioning--

Iowa faces Northwestern and the Press-Citizen reports that the Hawks should finally be healthy.

Illinois takes on lowly Minnesota. The Gophers are playing no defense, as Chip Scoggins at The Minneapolis Star Tribune points out. This game is another chance for the Illini to really get back on track, after a sluggish win against Ball State.

Ball State is next up for Indiana. The Hoosiers need only one more win to become bowl-eligible (though they may need two to actually get an invite). With BSU, Northwestern and Purdue remaining, it's very doable. But right now, nothing else matters in Bloomington except the recruiting scandals surrounding Kelvin Sampson, and that's what's discussed on the blog of The Indianapolis Star's Terry Hutchens.

Before Hutchens, the Star and the IU administration get their collective panties in a bunch over the recruiting excesses of the new regime, they might want to remember what's really important--even though their basketball program is being dragged through the mud and starting the long, slow descent to Kentucky-esque standards, they can take heart in the fact that at least the basketball coach didn't actually take a student by the arm and instruct them to call him "Mr.' or "Coach" rather then his last name. That, as we all know, is the unforgivable sin.