Big Ten Country

A Rough Opening Week

It was a rough opening week for the Big Ten. The league went 1-3 in four key intersectional tests. Michigan fell to Utah. Michigan State lost at Cal. Illinois came up short against Missouri. Only Northwestern's 30-10 win over Syracuse provided any solace, and I'm probably stretching it by calling the Orange a "key intersectional test." On top of it, the premier Heisman candidate in Chris Wells is now uncertain, down to a foot injury in Ohio State's otherwise easy win.

Any hopes that Michigan would latch on to Rich Rodriguez's system quicker then expected, or that the defense might carry them were quickly dashed by Utah. Ute quarterback Brian Johnson shredded the secondary for 305 yards. And offensively, Michigan got nothing at quarterback from either Nick Sheridan or Steven Threet. The completion percentages weren't bad, but it was mostly rinky-dink stuff. And the running game was appalling, netting only 36 yards. Michael Rosenberg of The Detroit Free Press calls the game a reality check for R-Rod's supporters.

Michigan State's 38-31 loss at Cal wasn't quite as bad. The Spartans do have people to replace and they were on the road against a good program. And they did a lot of good things, particularly in the air. Mark Dell showed he's ready to step in for Devin Thomas by producing an astounding 202 yards receiving. But the defense's inability to stop the run was alarming. Given that running games typically take longer into the season to find their stride, this surely is going to tick off the hard-nosed Mark Dantonio. And quarterback Brian Hoyer adds that he's sick of losing the close ones.

Illinois' 52-42 loss to Missouri was hardly anything to be ashamed of. The Illini tried to rally from a 45-20 deficit in the third quarter, but couldn't quite close the gap. How one reacts to this game will largely depend on how high one was on Ron Zook's team to begin with. Those expecting a repeat of last year and seeing this game as a benchmark will walk away disappointed. Those expecting a completely matured Juice Williams will not be happy with his overthrows and interceptions. But those who expected a rebuilding team saw a team that will be ready to compete and play with most Big Ten teams, and those who were skeptical of Williams saw a quarterback keep his cool and ring up a stunning 451 yards against a defense that brought back ten starters. He still needs a running game to help him out, as the loss of Rashard Mendenhall was apparent last night. But still, not a bad outing against a national championship contender and Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times adds that Illinois now knows where it stands.

Northwestern actually trailed Syracuse by a point into the second half, before reeling off three touchdowns to take the win. Tyrrell Sutton produced 144 yards on the ground and C.J. Bacher was efficient in the passing game. The Wildcats need to sweep their non-conference games to have a good shot at a bowl game. Duke was the only game beyond this that NU was likely to lose. They are halfway home.

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The three conference favorites--Ohio State, Wisconsin & Penn State--all took care of business in their tuneups. The news reports are abuzz with speculation about Wells' foot injury, but as of now all we know is that the MRI was negative. Until we get more information, I'm not going to assume he's going to miss the Southern Cal game in two weeks. Buckeye fans also got a look at Terrelle Pryor, who apparently will be a contributor as a role quarterback in his freshman year. Pryor ran 9 times for 52 yards and hit 4/6 passing. He's a new variable that could shake up the equation in Los Angeles on September 13.

Wisconsin overpowered Akron on the ground. P.J. Hill rushed for 210 yards. Given Hill's history of nagging injuries, it was also good news for UW that they didn't skip a beat when Zack Brown or John Clay stepped in. Penn State cruised past Coastal Carolina 66-10.

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Kellen Lewis set the Indiana career record for touchdown passes in leading his team past Westerk Kentucky. Lewis also got it done with his feet, scampering for a 75-yard touchdown run that got the scoring underway.

Iowa blew out Maine 46-3, but seeing the Black Bears rush for 137 yards is enough to make one raise an eyebrow. Big Ten Country will be watching Iowa's rush defense carefully in the coming games before conference play starts. And Minnesota showed it has problems on pass defense. The secondary was vulnerable all night long against Northern Illinois, coughing up a 24-13 lead before Adam Weber's offense bailed them out with a last-minute drive that pulled out a 31-27 win. Weber's 24/37 for 298 yards and zero picks is a major shot in the arm for those who hoped that the sophomore's second season as a starter would see greater consistency.

Prime-Time Tests

The annual border war opener between Illinois and Missouri has evolved into a big-time national showdown. They will kick off in St. Louis at 8:30 EST and ESPN will carry the game. Last year, the Illini fell in a shootout. It set the stage for a Missouri season where the Tigers ascended to #1 in the polls before losing the Big 12 championship game. Illinois bounced back and ended up in the Rose Bowl.

Illinois has a tall order on its hands. Missouri looks fearsome again, and I expect their offense to again put up points aplenty in this game. Quarterback Chase Daniel is the most likely challenger to Tim Tebow when the Heisman voting comes around. He's got most of his offensive line back in front of him, along with top targets in sophomore receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman who is the school record-holder for touchdown catches.

Juice Williams will have his hands full in trying to keep up. The Mizzou defense is even in better shape then the offense, and the highlight is the secondary, which brings back all four starters, including ballhawk free safety William Moore.

That I like Missouri's chances, not just Saturday night, but all season long, is probably pretty evident. There's just too many hills to climb for Illinois to win this game. They have a lot of new faces starting, particularly on offense, with Rashard Mendenhall gone. And even if the defense plays well, it's more a question of just slowing the Tiger offense down rather then controlling them. Juice will have to play an extraordinary game, and against a defense that is strong up and down, that's just not real likely. Nonetheless, Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times says facing Mizzou is right where the Illini want to be.

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Michigan State also makes its debut in prime-time, traveling to Cal for an 8 PM (EST) kickoff that will get regional coverage on ABC. This is one of two key non-conference games for the Spartans, the other being a home date with Notre Dame. MSU realistically only needs one win and this is the tougher of the two games, so it would be a stretch to call it must-win.

The Bears bring back 13 starters from a team that got to #2 in the country last October before collapsing down the stretch. Cal has the talent, but one has to wonder where their psyche is at. Of course that used to be a question we asked of Michigan State, but the Dantonio regime seems to have eliminated the mental hangup as a part of Spartan football life. Indeed, optimism is the watchword in East Lansing. Drew Sharp of The Detroit Free Press predicts Dantonio will be the first MSU head coach to start his career with consecutive winning seasons.

Minnesota is also in action on Saturday night, hosting Northern Illinois. The game will be on the Big Ten Network and kicks off at 7 (EST).

Stern Test Awaits For Rodriguez

The national TV lights of ABC will be on Rich Rodriguez this Saturday. The new coach will open his Michigan career with 3:30 EST kickoff against Utah at home. After a tumultous offseason there's nothing he needs more then to just win some games and get it all behind him, but the Utes will not be easy to handle.

Utah runs a spread offense, and Michigan's problems with that in recent seasons have been well-documented.  With a quarterback-alternation scheme, the Utes have both experienced receivers and an experienced line. The Wolverine defense will have to carry this team, particularly in the early part of the year, and they will be tested right out of the gate.

The defense Utah brings to town is no typical WAC-style (We Ain't Covering) defense (yes, I know it's now the Mountain West, but the point remains). On the positive side for UM, much of the front seven is gone, but a tough secondary is still mostly intact.

Michigan looks ready to use a dual-quarterback system themselves. Mark Snyder of The Detroit Free Press reports that Rodriguez is ready to give playing time to both Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan on Saturday.

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The undercard game on Saturday's TV schedule is one of the more consequential matchups on the Big Ten slate. Northwestern hosts Syracuse in a noon EST kickoff on ESPN. The Orange were terrible last year, going 2-10 and head coach Greg Robinson is likely on his last chance to turn the program around. Syracuse can still be a dangerous team for the Wildcats, due to their ability to throw the ball. Andrew Robinson threw for over 2,000 yards last year and Mike Williams is an effective receiver. The team also returns three offensive lineman, so the offense may be up to speed pretty quickly. But the defense was bad last year and shows no signs of improvement. It still looks like a win for NU, but it's also a must-win. If Pat Fitzgerald wants to get to a bowl game this year he likely needs to sweep his four non-conference games and the first two (they go to Duke next week) are the toughest ones.

Purdue & Notre Dame are both off this week. But the Boilermakers still got bad news. Jaycen Taylor is lost for the season. As bad a news is this on a personal level for Taylor, it is not devastating to his team. Kory Sheets is still the team's top back, and while depth is now gone if Sheets stays healthy the Boilers still have a running game.

High Noon On The Network

At high noon The Big Ten Network will usher in the 2008 season. The conference's three best teams will all be on display with opening week tuneups, as BTN carries the games involving Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State.

Wisconsin's game with Akron is the most intriguging of the trio, simply because the Zips aren't that far removed from significant success. The program won the MAC title back in 2005 and returns a veteran offense. Head coach J.D. Brookhart studied under Mike Shanahan of the Denver Broncos and his team should be able to move the ball. It is unlikely his team plays enough defense to actually come out of Madison with a win, but this will be a good measuring stick for the Badger defense--have they improved sufficiently after a somewhat disappointing effort in 2007? Bret Bielama already made some lineup changes to the secondary, with strong safety Aubrey Pleasant being demoted in favor of Jay Valai. He'll know quickly if those changes bore fruit. Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has the book on Akron. 

UW also made the most significant decision any of the contenders faced in preseason. They settled on a quarterback. As expected, senior southpaw Allan Evridge got the job. He will wear #4. It's fair to say that Evridge probably never guessed he'd end his career as the most beloved active quarterback wearing #4 in the state of Wisconsin.

Ohio State plays host to Youngstown State. These opening two games (Ohio is the other) aren't going to do a lot to get conversation in Columbus and about the Buckeyes generally off their worthiness to play in national championship games. They'll have to win at Southern Cal on September 13 to do that. In the meantime, Rob Oller of The Columbus Dispatch opines that SEC arrogance is getting tiresome.

Penn State will play Coastal Carolina. If you've never heard of the Chanticleers (did you even know they were called the Chanticleers?), you aren't alone. Coastal's lone contact with the Big Ten came back in 1991 when their basketball team nearly upset Bob Knight's #2 seed Indiana squad with Calbert Cheaney. Getting close enough for another near-miss against another Big Ten coaching legend is, to put it mildly, unlikely. Jeff Rice of The Centre Daily News features Maurice Evans, the best player on what is a very talented defensive line.

There are two other noon games that will be carried on BTN. Indiana hosts Western Kentucky, while Iowa welcomes Maine to the heartland.

Final Prediction Card

Come tomorrow, the preseason is officially over and game week is at hand. With that in mind, Big Ten Country will offer its final predictions, both nationally and in conference. A lot of them have been given or alluded to, either in the individual team previews or in the national overview published here over the last few weeks. This post coalesces them all. So without further adieu, here's how I'm calling it. The format of this card will be to work bottom-up, from the Big Ten's minor bowls, to our league's New Year's Day bids, to BCS at-large choices, to conference champions and finally to the national title game.

Big Ten No-Bowl: Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa. The Hawkeyes will be close, and IU has an outside shot. Minnesota is the only team in the league that is truly hopeless when it comes to postseason play.

Big Ten Minors (Alamo, Champs Sports, Music City, Motor): Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Northwestern. The first three teams listed all have realistic dreams of playing on January 1.   

Big Ten New Year's Day (Outback/Capital One): Penn State & Purdue. The Boilermakers win an open race between themselves, Michigan and Michigan State. If the Nittany Lions win at Wisconsin on October 11, they'll be one rung higher.

BCS At-Large: Wisconsin, Georgia, Texas, Arizona State. One team missing from this group is Missouri. The Tigers will contend for the national title, but a loss in the Big 12 championship game will again derail them from a justly earned major bowl bid. Look for BYU to also make a push, as the latest midmajor team, but to be edged out by the Sun Devils for a Rose Bowl slot.

BCS Conference Champs
Big Ten: Ohio State
SEC: Florida
ACC: North Carolina
Big East: South Florida
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac-10: USC

BCS National Championship Game: Last time we were in a presidential election year, the title game was in Miami and Oklahoma faced off with USC. I look for a repeat of that matchup this time around. The Sooners beat Texas in October and Missouri in December to get one spot. Winning those two games should provide them with enough cushion to drop one somewhere along the line, although I don't see the cushion as being necessary. As for the Trojans, they are not overwhelming this year, and if they had to come to Columbus, rather then vice-versa, I'd steer clear of them. But they won't be beaten at home or in the Pac-10, and their national respect is sufficient to get them the #2 spot if it comes down to teams with one loss.

National Champion: The analogy to '04 ends here. That time around, USC blistered OU. This year, Bob Stoops atones for back-to-back embarrassing losses in the Fiesta Bowl by winning the brass ring for the second time in his career.

Football Preview: Ohio State

In Ernest Hemingway's classic The Snows of Kilimanjaro, he notes an oddity--the carcass of a leopard near the top of a snow-covered mountain. The author adds "No one has explained what the leopard was seeking at that altitude." The Ohio State Buckeyes sort of know the feeling. Their own carcass has been found close to the summit of college football the past two years. Although here the analogy ends. For Jim Tressel's program knows precisely what it is seeking, and that is to finally reach the summit in 2008.

Ohio State has the talent to get to the national championship game for the third straight year, and this time to win it. They return 20 starters from last year's squad. The most prominent of them is junior running back Chris Wells, who will figure heavily in the Heisman race and opens the year as the favorite for Big Ten MVP. Tim May of The Columbus Dispatch notes that Wells is just one of an entire stable of talented Buckeye backs. They will all run behind a typically powerful line. Four starters return, and three of them--Alex Boone, Jim Cordle and Steve Rehring are going to be playing on Sundays this year or next.

Todd Boeckman is back at quarterback, although if he doesn't play well at the season's first big test in Southern Cal, it will be interesting to see if there is any movement for touted freshman signal-caller Terrelle Pryor to get action. There are already rumors that Pryor may be deployed the way TIm Tebow was at Florida prior to assuming the starting role--a situational quarterback used to provide a change of pace. Whomever is taking snaps has two steady and experienced, if unspectacular, receivers in Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline.

Defensively, the Bucks are similarly strong, although not quite as senor-laden. The defensive line will provide solid play, although pass-rushing powerhouse Vernon Ghoulston is going to be missed, now that he's with the Jets. Linebacking is the strength of the unit, and it's keyed by team captain and reigning Butkus Award winner James Laurinaitis. The secondary is going to be uncrackable with four starters back, and its lynchpin is All-American cornerback Malcolm Jenkins.

Tressel has a couple gimme games against state schools to get his team into shape for its trip to USC on September 13. The real question may be whether voters will forgive a loss in this game if it comes time to vote a one-loss team into the title game again. Normally there would be no question they would, and I would unhesitatingly tab the Buckeyes for the national championship game. But given the unfair tag put on this program after the last two years, I suspect that this is the one game OSU can't lose. They may be able to survive a slip-up in the Big Ten as long as they show they can win against a big-time national team.

The Bucks are clearly the best team in the conference and the schedule in-conference works out pretty well for them. They do have a tough road game against Wisconsin on October 4 and two weeks later at Michigan State could be a trap game if they were to be upended in an unlikely spot. But Michigan and Penn State come to Columbus.

Overall, it's impossible for this team not to at least stumble its way to 10 wins, and they probably get 11. But given the unfair tag put on them by the national media, I think that brings them up a little short of a national title game.

Football Preview: Michigan

For the first time I can recall, the Michigan football program experienced what can truly be called a tumultuous offseason. The hiring of Rich Rodriguez immediately brought problems relating to his departure from West Virginia and allegations of destroyed files. The heir apparent at quarterback, Ryan Mallett, noted R-Rod's spread offense and that as a pure dropback passer he wasn't the guy to run it. Mallett quickly transferred to Arkansas. This on top of a year in which the Wolverines lost a considerable amount of talent to the NFL, including the top overall draft pick in Jake Long.

Michigan will no doubt be ready to just step on the field and play football. Conventional wisdom says the program needs a year of adjustment to the Rodriguez system, and that does appear to be the case with the offense. Freshman Steven Threet is projected to start at quarterback and there is not a single senior projected to start anywhere on O. For a program as accomplished as UM, this dearth of senior step-ins is almost unheard of.

One place that won't be a problem is at running back. Michael Hart will be missed, particularly his leadership qualities, but both Kevin Grady and Brandon Minor are solid replacements. But on a unit riddled with youth at quarterback, receiver and offensive line, it's going to be tough sledding. Mark Snyder of The Detroit Free Press reports that position switches have already begun, with John Ferrara jumping from defense to offensive line, as Rodriguez attempts to make the transition a little less rocky.

The mood on defense is a little brighter, with all four starters up front back in the fold. The secondary is similarly stacked, with three-year starter Morgan Trent returning at corner to lead a talented and experienced group. Defense hasn't carried the day in Ann Arbor for some time now, but it looks like 2008 will be different.

Rodriguez won't get the luxury of breaking his team in against an easy schedule. The home opener is against a good Utah team, the same program that won the Fiesta Bowl in 2004, and a road trip to a potentially rejuvenated Notre Dame will be tough. UM also plays both Penn State & Ohio State on the road, and if the team doesn't find its footing quickly a September 27 home game with Wisconsin could easily turn into a loss.

The possibility Michigan could finish with a losing record has been floated. While it's not unthinkable, given the transition chaos on offense, I think there is too much talent on defense to let that happen. Defense makes sure you win the games you're supposed to win, and there's enough of those that Rodriguez can at least get seven or eight victories. Anything beyond that though, would be a major surprise.

Football Preview: Penn State

Joe Paterno is under the gun in Happy Valley this year, as he is coaching without a contract for 2009. The good news for Joe Pa is that the talent is on hand to give him all the success he needs to maintain his leverage when the offseason arrives.

Penn State has had problems moving the ball the last two years, and the quarterback position is not yet settled. Pat Devlin, a transfer from Miami is one option. But the favorite is Darryl Clark, a mobile QB more in the mold of 2005 Big Ten MVP Michael Robinson. Over at The Centre Daily Times, Walt Moody gives us the scoop on where this key positional battle stands.

Whomever wins the job is going to be well taken care of. The Lions return four starters up front, including three seniors. And while starting running back Austin Scott is gone, his stand-in, Evan Royster, was arguably more productive in 2007. Three talented receivers, Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood are back in the fold. Penn State should able to produce points this year.

The defense looks to be its traditional nasty self. The front four will be fearsome, with Maurice Evans and Josh Gaines coming off the end, and stability on the interior as well. The secondary will also be very good, with both corners returning, along with talented free safety Anthony Scirrotto. The one area where inexperience looms is at linebacker, where Paterno must replace Dan Connor and Sean Lee, the latter being lost to season-ending knee surgery during spring practice. But when the one weakness on the team is an area where the program has become legendary for its ability to develop, it's a sign you're in pretty good shape.

The schedule is not too imposing, and PSU should win all four non-conference games. A difficult October, that includes road trips to West Lafayette, Madison and Columbus will be what keeps them out of the conference throne room, but on the plus side they should be able to end their long-running jinx with a home victory over Michigan.

Penn State looks similar to Wisconsin. A possible challenger to Ohio State's hegemony if everything goes right, and either way winning 9-10 games and being right on the bubble between an at-large BCS bid or an invitation to the Capital One Bowl. 2008 will show Paterno isn't finished yet.

Notre Dame Preview

The Flaherty clan is getting set for a family reunion tomorrow at Milwaukee's Irishfest on the shores of Lake Michigan. And just as no reunion restricts itself only to the immediate family, nor does Big Ten Country restrict its coverage to our blood clan alone. Today's post takes a look at our couisins down in South Bend--the ones who show up to the party and either inspire cheers of affection or incite you to brawl.

Notre Dame didn't do much brawling in 2007, winning only three games in their worst season in recent memory. The optimism that had been brewing around Charlie Weis after his back-to-back BCS bids quickly turned to a hot seat. The good news for the coach is that he's got enough talent on hand to at least start the road back to respectabilty.

Jimmy Clausen took his lumps as a freshman quarterback. His sophomore year will be better. Not only is he more experienced, but his supporting cast is as well. David Grimes and George West return at receiver, and he's got pretty good backs in James Aldridge and 238-pound bruiser Robert Hughes. While his offensive line was horrible in '07, they bring back four starters and experience always makes for a more cohesive line.

Charlie Weis is farming out the play-calling duties this year. While I generally agree that head coaches should stay away from play-to-play duties during a game in order to keep focused on the bigger picture, I do wonder if Weis isn't going too far in restructuring things. This is a man who made his living as a play-caller in the NFL and everyone has to play to their strengths. We'll see how long the new arrangement lasts.

If it were just about the offense, Notre Dame could dream of returning to the BCS. But the defense remains a work in progress.The Irish remain young in the trenches. Being a 3-4 scheme, this might not be as deadly as it would to a program with a four-man front, but it still puts enormous pressure on a linebacking unit led up by Maurice Crum. Notre Dame does have a strong secondary, with both corners returning along with senior free safety David Bruton.

An improved offense and veteran secondary add up to improvement in South Bend. The schedule remains tough, although not as brutal as the 2007 docket. The Irish should be able to beat San Diego State in the opener, and combine that with wins against Washington (road), Navy (Baltimore), and Stanford (home). That gets them to four victories. A virtually certain defeat at Southern Cal awaits them. The season then gets settled in the broad middle of seven other games that include road games with Michigan State and an improved North Carolina, along with the annual grudge match against Michigan. If ND just gets to 3-4 in these seven, they go bowling again. And if they go 4-3 or 5-2, they likely get themselves onto New Year's Day. Bob Wieneke of The South Bend Tribune writes how kicker Brandon Walker is hoping to be a part of a few mob scenes this fall.

Football Preview: Purdue

Joe Tiller will be stepping down as Purdue's head coach after this season. For the man who brought the Boilermaker program out of obscurity and into the 2000 Rose Bowl (along with several other bowl trips), nothing could be a better retirement gift then a New Year's vacation in Florida, destination Tampa (Outback) or Orlando (Capital One). Those are ambitious goals, but the team he brings back gives him a chance.

Purdue, as usual, is strong at the quarterback position. Curtis Painter is in his third year as a starter and is coming off a 29/11 touchdown-interception ration last season. If he breaks 3,050 yards, he'll become the Big Ten's all-time leading passer. The man he'd beat out? Another Tiller product in Drew Brees. The Purdue coach is a master of the passing game, which is why Big Ten Country is confident in saying the team will overcome its current shortcoming of experienced targets.

The offensive line should be pretty good. The Boilermakers return three starters and all are seniors. Just as significantly, one of the new starters (center Cory Benton) is also a senior. In an area where experience can often trump raw talent, especially early on, Purdue has it in spades. It's no wonder Tom Kubat of The Journal & Courier tells us that new line coach, and head coach heir apparent Danny Hope likes what he sees.

Playing defense has always been the challenge for Tiller's program. But he's got the horses up front, again being loaded with senior returnees. The linebacking corps and secondary are not huge weak points, but could present some problems, particularly with a number of defensive backs coming back from offseason surgeries.

Purdue has a challenging non-conference schedule. Like Michigan State, they play both a quality Pac-10 program (Oregon in this case), along with a traditional game against Notre Dame. The Boilermakers do get a break in that Wisconsin is off the schedule. I also think it's a break that they play Ohio State on the road. Given the likelihood that this game is a mismatch, why waste a home date that's probably not winnable anyway?

The game to circle is November 1 when Michigan comes to town. If the Boilermakers can beat the Wolverines they have a good chance to enter the New Year's party. Here's betting that Purdue wins at least eight games to send Tiller out in style.