Big Ten Country

Football Preview: Indiana

Indiana had an emotional season in 2007. They lost their beloved coach, Terry Hoeppner, to brain cancer. But they rallied behind his replacement, interim man Bill Lynch, and fulfilled Hoeppner's wish of finally getting this long-moribund program back to a bowl game. In the process, they transformed Lynch from an interim man to one with a four-year contract. As Memorial Stadium continues to undergo construction and renovation, Lynch has the task of providing the foundation of consistent winning football.

IU has some good skill position talent back on offense. Kellen Lewis was second-team All-Conference last year at quarterback. Lewis is potent with both his arm and his feet, combining for 37 touchdowns in '07. Even though he loses James Hardy to the NFL, he brings back a pair of wideouts to anchor the Hoosiers' three-receiver set. Terry Hutchens of The Indianapolis Star reports on the efforts of Ray Fisher and Andrew Means to step up and be the go-to guy in the passing game.

Up front is where the problems are going to come in. Only two starters return, no seniors are to be found and Lynch has had to push three sophomores to the top of the depth chart. Indiana will be challenged to find a running game, and without that, Lewis may be forced into mistakes, trying to make too much happen on his own.

The defensive line looks in better shape. Greg Middleton registered 16 sacks coming off the end and is the best returning pass-rusher in the conference. Greg Brown is back in the middle, and Jammie Kirlew returns at the other end. The front four will get good support from the linebacking corps, with a pair of returnees, but the secondary could be a little iffy. While Indiana does bring back both safeties in Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, the corners are weak. Lynch may need to put a freshman into the lineup here.

IU will get off to a 3-0 start, with home games against Western Kentuck, Murray State and Ball State. The first three games of the conference schedule will then tell us a lot. The Hoosiers are at home against Michigan State and Iowa and mix in a road trip to Minnesota. A program ready to be a consistent bowl team could conceivably be 6-0, and no worse then 5-1. But the challenge of putting together winning football teams is hard in Bloomington, where the considerable shadow of the next-door basketball arena looms over all. I suspect IU comes up a little bit short in their quest for another December vacation.

Football Preview: Iowa

Kirk Ferentz is in the midst of a midseason slump. A few years ago, he was one of the hottest names in the country. Iowa split the 2002 Big Ten title with eventual national champion Ohio State. The Hawkeyes won the Capital One Bowl the following year, and grabbed a piece of another league title in '04. But the last couple years have been tough and a galling season-ending loss to Western Michigan left Ferentz home for Christmas last season.

The Iowa coach made his reputation as a builder of offensive lines, and it is that unit that will have to keynote any potential revival. The line struggled last year, but it was very young. To illustrated just how young, not only are all five starters back, but four of those same starters will be back next year.

Similar youth was behind center, where Jake Christiansen struggled as a sophomore starter. The quarterback returns for more, and Andy Hamilton of The Iowa Press-Citizen reports that he's tweaking his techniques. Christiansen will look to tight end Tony Mooeaki and senior receiver Andy Brodell as his prime targets. The backfield must replace Albert Young and Damian Sims, but if the offensive line comes together the running back position will take care of itself.

There's quite a few positions to fill on defense. Any success on this side of the ball will have to start up the middle. Mitch King  may be the most dominant defensive lineman in the conference, and he is joined at tackle by Matt Kroul. But all three linebackers are new starters and all are sophomores. Two more sophs are projected to take up starting jobs in the secondary, although one of them is incumbent free safety Brent Greenwood.

Iowa opens the season with a couple gimme non-conference wins. After that comes a huge home test against Iowa State and a big road trip to Pittsburgh. Once Big Ten play starts, the four key games are home dates with Northwestern and Purdue, and road games with Indiana and Minnesota. If you take these eight games as a composite, the Hawks need to find six wins to become at least eligible for a bowl. Then if they can either sneak in an upset somewhere (home games with Penn State & Wisconsin) or win seven of the winnable eight, they can assure themselves of a postseason trip.

It's very doable, and their head coach more then capable, but to me the defensive inexperience suggests Iowa will not break the .500 barrier this year.

Football Preview: Minnesota

Last year marked the beginning of the post-Glenn Mason era, an audacious experiement in which a generally unaccomplished program fires a reasonably successful head coach, thinking that not only are they capable of more, but the aforementioned winning coach can't get them there. Year One of the grand plan was an absolute disaster. Minnesota went from a consistent bowl team to 0-8 in conference play.

The defense was the worst in the nation.New coordinator Ted Roof has been charged with the task of making this unit competitive. Perhaps better days will be around the corner but with only four returning starters it won't be this year. The Gophers are hoping that a healthy William VanDeSteeg on the end will bring an upgrade to the pass rush.

Offensively, Rick Brewster's team is similarly rebuilding, but there are a few more tools on hand. Sophomore quarterback Adam Weber got a year of starting under his belt in 2007. While he threw 19 , that is to be expected from a freshman signal-caller with no real help to fall back on. And Weber also showed signs of real promise. He might get some relief from an improved running game. With three offensive line starters back, including the entire left side, along with sophomore returnee Duane Bennett running behind them, the Gophers might start the process of rejuvenating the running game that was once the pride of the program under Mason.

As hard as I've been on Minnesota and Brewster since Mason's firing, it does need to be noted that their recruiting classes are winning rave reviews. With only four seniors in the starting lineup and six of Brewster's recruits already slated to start, perhaps better days are ahead. But Minnesota's paying a pretty heavy price just to get back to where they were when this whole process started.

Football Preview: Wisconsin

At this time last year, Wisconsin fans had high expectations. And the Badgers had a good year, going 9-3 and reaching a New Year's Day game for the fourth straight season. But a tough loss to Tennessee seemed to symbolize a year that wasn't bad, but wasn't quite what it could have been. This time around, UW again looks strong and is hungry to reach a major bowl for the first time since 1999.

It always starts up front with the Badgers and 2008 is no different. The offensive line is big and experienced. Four returning starters. Three of them are seniors. Four of the starters are 6'6: or taller. They all tip the scale at 300 pounds. There won't be any problems clearing room for junior running back P.J. Hill. one of the top backs in the league. And just like Tyrell Sutton and Javon Ringer, who've gotten positive press here the past few days, Hill needs to be on the watch lists for league MVP.

Bret Bielama has to break in a new quarterback, and it looks like senior Allan Evridge will be the man. Sophomore receiver Kyle Jefferson is back at one flank, but the primary passing targets in Madison are at tight end. Travis Beckum is one of the best nation, and backup Garrett Graham gives Evridge a potent duo to use off play-action and keep defenses honest.

The defensive line is looking as strong as their offensive counterparts. Matt Shaughnessy, Mike Newkirk and Jason Chapman all return to anchor a unit that Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says is seasoned just right. They will be backed up by a linebacking unit that returns all three starters. Secondary may be a bit of a problem, as shutdown corner Jack Ikegwounuu must be replaced, but the other corner is still ably manned by Allen Langford.

The schedule has an interesting non-conference test on September 13 at Fresno State. The Badgers have never played well in early trips out west (see 2004 in Arizona and 2007 at UNLV), and unlike previous previosu trips, the opponent this time is good enough to beat them. Big Ten play begins with Michigan, and then has back-to-back prime-time home games with Ohio State and Penn State. A road trip to East Lansing serves as a trap game in November. But no matter what, UW will finish strong. They play Cal-Poly for November 22's Senior Day festivities. This has to be the most uninspired finale in the history of Badger football. But then, maybe the athletic department just loves the old Tom Cruise movie All The Right Moves, where Cruise's character ends up playing football at Poly.

Wisconsin is one of the few teams capable of beating Ohio State and taking the conference championship. They won't do the latter, but they will come up with 9-10 regular season wins and earn an at-large invite to the BCS.

Football Preview: Michigan State

Football is hot again in East Lansing, after the dour final years of the John L. Smith era. The Spartans finished strong last year and got to a decent bowl game. They beat Penn State, and narrowly missed upsets against Wisconsin, Michigan and Boston College. Mark Dantonio has them back for more this year and is looking to create sustainable success, something this program has struggled to find.

The skill positions are looking very strong. Senior quarterback Brian Hoyer could be very good or very turnover-prone, but experience and a good supporting cast should help level the valleys out. While he loses receiver Devin Thomas and tight end Kellen Davis to the NFL, he still has returning starters Mark Dell and Deon Curry to throw to. And the real prize is in the backfield, where Javon Ringer is back for another year and what will be a push at the MVP award. Ringer broke the 1,400 yard barrier last year and no longer has to split time with Jehuu Caulcrick.

Dantonio's offensive line looks in pretty good shape with three returning starters and no underclassmen in starting roles. The problems come when you look at the line on the other side of the ball. Michigan State returns only one starter up front. The linebackers will have to help out. After a strong freshman season, Greg Jones is being moved inside. He will be joined by Eric Gordon, who also started as a frosh.

Like the offensive line, the secondary has enough experience on hand to make you believe all will be well. Kendell Davis-Clark returns on the corner and Otis Wiley is back at strong safety. And no underclassmen are being pushed into starting jobs.

The schedule is no pushover. Michigan State plays at Cal to open the year, and has Notre Dame at home in a series where it seems the best thing that can happen to you is to play on the road. They also don't play Minnesota, the one true patsy in the conference. If you take their four most winnable league games--road dates with Northwestern & Indiana and home games against Iowa and Purdue, MSU needs to go 3-1 and at least get a split out of the two non-conference games mentioned.

Dantonio has this program on the right track. Right now, he's holding serve, building depth and letting his new recruits push for time. I see them again winning around seven games and going to another bowl game.  Next year, with a more experienced defense, is when the coach will make a serious push at the New Year's stage.

Football Preview: Northwestern

The Wildcats were bowl-eligible last year, but at 6-6 got passed over for an invite. This year they look for their first postseason bid since 2005, an accomplishment that would clearly signify the program's recovery from the death of Randy Walker. They have a good chance to get it.

Northwestern's high-powered spread offense will again be led by C.J. Bacher. The senior blew hot and cold last year, with both 19 TDs and 19 interceptions. I think the combination of experience, plus an expanded use of the no-huddle offense will help cut down on the picks. And in a system where experience and cohesion at receiver is almost as important as that on the offensive line, Bacher has three senior returnees at wideout.

While the offense is built around the pass, running back Tyrell Sutton is still the focal point. Injuries have limited his time, but healthy he's a Marshall Faulk-type back who can beat you no matter what way he gets the ball. If he can stay out of the trainer's room, he's got a chance to be Big Ten MVP.

Offensive line could be a problem, with two freshman projected to start. This is an area that has to be improved, as bad red-zone performance cost the Wildcats a year ago. But if games are won in the trenches, NU should at least be improved on the other side of the line of scrimmage. All four defensive line starters return. While tackle John Gill has been suspended for the season opener, the experience should help improve a unit that ranked a woeful 10th in the conference against the run. And just like their rivals downstate, the D-Line will need to carry them, as there is not a lot returning in the linebacking corps and secondary.

Northwestern has a very manageable schedule. A non-conference slate that sees home games with Syracuse, Southern Illinois & Ohio, combined with a road trip to Duke, gives them an excellent chance to start off 4-0. If they can sweep the opening quartet, the odds are they find the three conference wins they'll need to secure a bowl game. The betting here says they do it.

Football Preview: Illinois

If Illinois is going to repeat its run to a BCS bowl game this fall it's going to have to start on defense and up front. With the loss of Big Ten MVP Rashard Mendenhall from the backfield and no adequate replacements on the horizon, Ron Zook is going to have find alternate means of getting the pressure off the talented, but erratic, Juice Williams.

Defense can be the way it's done. Illinois brings back three starters on the D-Line and are expecting big things from new senior starter Will Davis on the end. The Illini also have both cornerbacks returning in Vontae Davis and Dere Hicks. A combination of a good pass rush and strong play on the corners can provide enough cover for inexperience at safety and make the D a good overall unit.

And that will be necessary because of the offensive problems mentioned. Illinois brings back some good talent in the passing game. Indeed, Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times reports on how the air attack is being unharnessed for sophomore receiver Arrelious Benn. The speedy wideout is joined by fellow returnees Kyle Hudson and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. But it all comes back to Williams and consistency behind center. He's never had to be the man in his college career, and Mendenhall's early departure places that burden squarely on him.

The schedule does Illinois no favors. They open with Missouri, and have conference road games at Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan. And revenge-minded Ohio State comes calling in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Zook has this program moving quickly in the right direction. But to repeat last year's performance requires more of his recruits to step in before they are ready. It's tough to see the Illini winning more then eight games, and 7-5 or 6-6 looks more realistic this time around.

National Overview

The best way to approach philosophy is start from the whole and then descend to the individual part. So the fictitious Count of Monte Cristo explained in Alexandre Dumas' classic novel of the same name. Big Ten Country will adhere to that same approach in its preseason football review. We'll start with a broad overview of the national scene today, before sinking into individual team previews in our home conference.

Big East: West Virginia is seen as a prohibitive favorite to win a third championship in four years, but I think this race is much more wide open. Rutgers is going to be a factor, and it wouldn't surprise me to see UConn jump up and steal the BCS bid. Dave Wannstedt looks to finally be the turning corner at Pitt after his shocking upset of WVA in last year's finale. But the team I like most is South Florida. Led by junior quarterback Matt Grothe, the Panters should score points aplenty and they have enough defense to win a watered-down conference.

ACC: Watered-down races are the theme up and down the East Coast. With Virginia Tech rebuilding and Miami & Florida State not back to their normal selves. the ACC can be had by an upstart. Wake Forest is good, but not quite ready to repeat their 2006 magic. Maryland went to the Orange Bowl back in 2001 and are a viable contender. But the team to watch is North Carolina. Butch Davis has been recruiting well, the team is experienced and they will be able to fly under the radar. I look for UNC to beat Maryland in the conference championship game in Jacksonville. Perhaps Dean Smith and Lefty Driesell can be flown in for the coin flip.

Big Ten: In our own conference, Ohio State's 20 returning starters mark them the odds-on favorite. Wisconsin and Penn State are each strong contenders for an at-large BCS bid.

SEC: Georgia is getting a lot of love from preseason magazines as a national title winner. But I'm not going anywhere near a team projecting four sophomores to start on the offensive line. The Bulldogs are good and may get another BCS bid, but not the top game. South Carolina could make a similar run at an at-large BCS slot. LSU is re-tooling this year, and the opportunity is there for Auburn and Alabama to claim the West. But the favorite here is Florida, as Tim Tebow tries to be the first player since Ohio State's Archie Griffin to win two straight Heismans.

Big 12: This is the conference to watch. It may not be the best, but it's got three heavyweights with legitimate national title aspirations. I think Oklahoma and Missouri are the best two teams in the country, and Texas will be right there. I'll take the Sooners to again damage Mizzou's title shot in the Big 12 championship game, and for the Tigers to again be robbed of a BCS bid as the Longhorns sneak in via the at-large route.

Pac-10: USC is young and ripe to be picked. But no one in the Pac-10 is ready to do the picking. Arizona State is a contender for an at-large BCS pick in a weak field, but not much more. The Trojans have won at least a piece of the conference trophy every year since 2002. That streak stays unbroken. It only comes down to whether they end the season in Pasadena or Miami.

Other: It's a cliche to say that Notre Dame will be improved, but a year away from again making noise on the national stage. It's a cliche because it's true. The Irish will return to a bowl game this year. And among the midmajors, BYU is the best chance at crashing the party. However, I do think the Cougars will come up short of a major bowl bid in a close battle with the Pac-10 runner-up.

This scenario gives us conference champions of South Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma and USC. The four at-large BCS slots will be filled by Texas, Georgia, Arizona State and the Big Ten runner-up. Who will that runner-up be? And will Ohio State elevate from conference champion onto the national title game for a third straight year? That's what we'll discuss in the next three weeks, as Big Ten Country starts its team previews.

Stories To Watch

August is here and another year is beckoning for Big Ten Country. This site is back for its regular updating on the football and men's basketball action in America's greatest conference. Through the hitting in the trenches to the squeaking of sneakers on the hardwood, from football openers in the hot August sun to basketball in Iowa City come midwinter. On through the BCS National Championship Game in Miami come January and ending right back in our home region in March when Detroit hosts the Final Four. Big Ten Country is excited to begin its fourth year of coverage.

For obvious reasons most fans are focused on football right now, and for equally obvious reasons that will be the focus here as team previews and predictions are about to be the main fare served. But for the opening post, I thought I would take a little broader view at the entire year ahead. What are the main storylines for each school as we prepare to make the journey from August to March? If you're a student on campus, what questions should you have about your teams as another academic year begins. Here are my thoughts:

Wisconsin: The Badgers arguably had the strongest combined year of any league program last year, winning the basketball title and going to a New Year's Day game in football. The big question for 2008-09 is whether the football team can take the next step into a BCS bowl game. UW hasn't competed on the biggest stage since the 1999 Rose Bowl. They've been successful and won a lot of big games, but can they reach the next level? We'll find out.

Ohio State: It's all about politics here. The Buckeyes have taken a lot of unfair heat for losing the past two BCS title games. Rather then being seen as the second-best team in the land for two straight years, and the best if you look at 2006-07 as one, their losses are seen not only as a mark against themselves, but against the entire league. They go to Southern Cal on September 13. Jim Tressel's team is the banner-carrier for this conference on the national stage and we'll see how they handle this test, and how the public reacts.

Michigan State: While football looks interesting, Tom Izzo's basketball program is where the hottest action is in East Lansing. With the Final Four a virtual home game for them, can the Spartans end the year by cutting down the nets in their own backyard?

Indiana: This one's easy. Tom Crean has been given the task of restoring a troubled tradition in IU basketball. Eric Gordon and D.J. White are gone. Can Crean get the foundation in place?

Purdue: Arguably the most interesting program in the conference. It's Joe Tiller's last year in football. But it's all about hoops in the state of Indiana, and after surprising everyone with a young team last year, can Matt Painter take this program back to the Keady-era of Big Ten championships?

Michigan: Another easy call. How will the football team adjust to Rich Rodriguez's spread offense? They could finish 10-2, or below .500 based on what the answer is.

Minnesota: While Tubby Smith's basketball team is the superior program, the more interesting question is whether the strong recruiting class of Rick Brewster can get the football team pointed back in the right direction after a disastrous 2007.

Iowa: Kirk Ferentz is good friends with UW athletic director Barry Alvarez and their careers have followed similar paths. A hot beginning with some big years that got them on short lists for better jobs all over the country and the NFL. Now, just as Barry did, Ferentz is having a dry spell in the middle. Can he respond the same way and get it turned back around? The betting here says he can. We'll find out.

Illinois: The program to watch isn't the one that just played in the Rose Bowl. Ron Zook will rebuild a little this year, but has the Illini on strong footing. The one to keep an eye is in hoops, where Bruce Weber has fallen from grace since the glory days of 2005. If he doesn't return his team to March this year, he might be running out of chances.

Northwestern: The Wildcats just missed a bowl game last year. Can Pat Fitzgerald return them to the postseason this time around? If he can, NU is coming close to developing what can actually be a modest tradition of success on the gridiron. From Gary Barnett to Randy Walker and now to Fitzgerald. That's if an experienced team can finish the job this season.

Penn State: And last, but certainly not least is the story of the year in college football. Is this the swan song for Joe Paterno? And are he and Penn State headed for a messy finish? Paterno has refused to agree to a succession plan. The school has so far refused to extend his contract. If Paterno wins 9-10 games, as this team is capable of, it probably settles things in his favor. But what if they go a so-so 8-4? Joe Pa shows no hints of stepping aside. Does the school push him out or give in? Ted Thompson up in Green Bay might want to give thanks he's got an easier job on his plate then trying to handle this potential time bomb.

There are so many other questions that remain unanswered in America's greatest region. Will there be a Windy City Series? Which NFC North team (if any) will Brett Favre suit up for? Will Big Ten Country produce its first president since Harding? We don't have the answers to all. But what's above is what will set the tone for the college sports community in this neck of the woods.