Big Ten Country

Angling For New Year's

The conference heavyweights may be on the sidelines this weekend, but there's some important jousting going on for good bowl bids elsewhere, and that includes down in South Bend, where the Big Ten's first couisins are angling for a Gator Bowl trip or perhaps even the Cotton Bowl. The ND blog Rakes of Mallow provides a good look at all the nuances to Notre Dame's current bowl possiblities. 

Notre Dame plays host to Pitt. The Panthers had been steadily improving this year, building off the momentum of their season-ending shocker of West Virginia last November. Pitt beat Iowa back in September and remains in the hunt for the Big East title. A bad loss to Rutgers last week raised questions over whether they were looking ahead to this one or finally exposed. The Irish are making sure and steady progress themselves and in that regard Jimmy Clausen is a microcosm of the team. Notre Dame is better then Pitt--not by a lot, but they are better, and they are at home. A win here puts the Irish in great position to finish 8-4, allowing them cushion to lose at Boston College and at Southern Cal. And at least eight wins puts them in great position to be in Jacksonville or Dallas for New Year's.

Northwestern travels to Minnesota. The Wildcat loss to Indiana took a little bit of steam out of this game, which had been shaping up as winner-take-all for the inside track to the Outback and remaining in contention for something more. Minnesota's strength this season has been consistency in the midst of a chaotic middle. The Gophs have home field in this one, and the Wildcats have yet to play a really outstanding game. If Minny just keeps its consistency going, we've yet to see evidence that Pat Fitzgerald's team has enough firepower to overcome that on the road. Kent Youngblood of The Minneapolis Star Tribune says that turnovers have keyed the Gopher ascendancy.

Michigan State hosts Wisconsin. This game is an opportunity for Mark Dantonio to signal beyond a shadow of a doubt that his team is the only real challenger left to Ohio State & Penn State. The Spartans have taken care of Michigan. But there are rumblings that Wisconsin is going to have a revival after getting back on track last week against Illinois. UW is probably in too deep a hole to recover enough to play on January 1, but this game is their own opportunity to make a statement. Wisconsin wants to salvage respect. Michigan State can add to its own respect totals and all but seal a date on New Year's. Life is good right now on the hoops front in East Lansing as well. The basketball team is ranked #7 in the preseason AP poll, the highest-rated Big Ten team. 

Illinois plays Iowa in Champaign. The Hawkeyes can become a serious threat for a postseason Florida trip if they can win here. And Illinois can start to reclaim some of the credibility their recent forays into the world of maddening inconsistency have cost them.

Michigan plays Purdue, as the Wolverines tries launch a last desperate push to get bowl-eligible, with no margin of error. And in the one non-conference game, Central Michigan goes to Indiana.

After that, the biggest game in the Big Ten will be down in the Lone Star state. A Texas loss to Texas Tech opens the door to Penn State for the national championship game. The Longhorns & Red Raiders tee it up at 8 EST on ABC.

Minor Bowl Projections

Big Ten Country's bowl projections are posted in a link at the upper right hand spot of the site. They'll be updated early each week. It includes the BCS games, plus the Capital One & Outback Bowls.

It's a pretty quiet week in the Big Ten coming up, with only four conference games and both Penn State & Ohio State off, so the game previews will be done in one part instead of the customary two. For today's post, here's a brief look at how the rest of the conference bowl card is shaping up, beyond the big games that are regularly updated. I'm currently projecting Penn State & Ohio State to the BCS, and Michigan State & Minnesota to the January 1 games. Here's how I see the pre-New Year's lineup shaking out:

Alamo: Wisconsin-Oklahoma State
The Badgers win three of their last four games and nudge into San Antonio. In 2002, a UW team salvaged a disappointing season with a stunning win over Colorado at this game. Could a reprise be in the offing?

Champs Sports: Iowa-North Carolina
The Hawkeys are starting to play better, although they'll need to pull a road upset somewhere along the line to get any higher up the food chain.

Insight: Illinois-Nebraska
Juice Williams & Co. have been inconsistent, but explosive. A matchup against a name school from the Big 12 presents a great chance to follow up on their Rose Bowl season with a positive lasting memory.

Motor City: Northwestern-Ball State.
This one could actually be the most interesting game of all. The Cardinals could come in unbeaten and looking to stake a claim for BCS martyrdom. Whichever Big Ten team gets this last spot could have a good opportunity for redemption themselves.

Michigan is pretty well up against it, having to win out the rest of the way--including a road trip to Columbus. Indiana and Purdue are also longshots, though still technically hanging on.

October 25 Game Summaries

Penn State 13 Ohio State 6
It was a dead-even game in almost every respect. Total yards was roughly even, with Ohio State doing its damage thorugh the air, while Penn State moved it on the ground. Terrel Pryor played his best game as a Buck, throwing for 225 yards in spite of no support from Chris Wells, who was shut down. And the entire game had a "dead-even feel" to it, if there is such a thing. But the one area that wasn't even was penalties and turnovers. The Buckeyes weren't bad, but the Lions were flawless. Not a single miscue for Joe Paterno's team. It was a big fumble by Pryor that set up the game-winning drive and a big interception down by the goal line that finally sealed it. It was the kind of game, Bob Hunter of The Columbus Dispatch points out, that Jim Tressel always wins. But on Saturday night, PSU out-Tresseled the Buckeyes and escaped with an enormous win that puts them firmly in command of the Big Ten race and in very enviable position in the race for the national title. Ohio State is still in good shape to get an at-large bid to a major bowl so long as they win out.

Michigan State 35 Michigan 21
As was expected, Michigan came to play on their homefield against their archrival. The Wolverines led 21-14 in the second half, and it was knotted at 21 after three quarters. But as was also expected, the Spartans asserted themselves in the fourth quarter and showed that the balance of power has--at least for a snapshot in time--shifted in this rivalry. Javon Ringer rolled up 194 yards, and Brian Hoyer was brilliant, in throwing for 282 yards & three touchdowns with nary a pick to be found. MSU kept in the lead for a Capital One Bowl berth, and are still in the mix for the conference title, by virtue of the fact they play Penn State in the season finale. Michigan opened the season with modest goals, but even those are now slipping away.

Minnesota 17 Purdue 6
With 13 penalties, it was far from Minnesota's best performance. But with a good game from Adam Weber, and a strong outing from the defense, which picked up four Boilermaker turnovers, the Gophers kept on track to reach a New Year's Day game. The win was their third straight, and while it was not impressive in of itself, the fact Rick Brewster's young team maintains a consistent focus each week in taking care of lower-echelon teams is impressive. Like Michigan State, Minny is also just a game back in the standings, but does not play Penn State (or the Spartans for that matter). The schedule pretty much blocks them out of a shot at a conference title (unless we get some crazy four-way tie scenario before its over), but it does enhance their bowl prospects dramatically.

Indiana 21 Northwestern 19
Anyone who thinks its easy to keep taking care of business against lower-echelon teams need only call Pat Fitzgerald to have their illusions dispelled. Northwestern turned it over five times, and Ben Chappell played a nice game at quarterback for Indiana. The Wildcats did major damage to their own cause of playing on January and still have to win one more game to make sure they don't get frozen out of a bowl at 6-6. The one sure place to get that win was right here, but Indiana and Bill Lynch got a long-overdue W of their own.

Wisconsin 27 Illinois 17
Illinois has to be the most unpredictable team in the Big Ten. They either explode in your face or they shoot themselves in the foot. It was the latter in Camp Randall on Saturday. Juice Williams threw three interceptions, while freshman QB Dustin Sherer was the cool game-manager for the Badgers. Wisconsin shut down the Illinois running game and scored the game's final 17 points after falling behind in the third quarter. Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says the defense got back to basics.

Notre Dame 33 Washington 7
The Fighting Irish completely dominated the Huskies from the outset, with the defense turning in an outstanding performance that included holding Washington to 26 passing yards. While the opponent wasn't good, the Irish effort continues a good run of momentum as they head into a more challenging home game with Pitt next week.

Showdown In The Shoe

The game of the year in the Big Ten has arrived. Penn State visits Ohio State in an 8 EST ABC telecast. Between this and Game 3 of the World Series, the city of Philadelphia, with its large contingent of PSU fans, might well achieve levels of violent passion previously confined to European soccer games.

In sizing up these teams I think the Lions are a little bit better, but the question will be if they are sufficiently better to overcome homefield advantage. I expect Paterno to stack up against the run, to try and take away Chris Wells and force Prior to throw. The freshman has already stood up under pressure in directing a game-winning drive in Madison against a pre-collapse Wisconsin team. But his overall passing numbers are pretty limited. In the meantime, the Lions are a very balanced offensive team with no real weaknesses. On a neutral field, I would lean PSU's way. But I think Prior can get the job done at home when push comes to shove, given the Lion defense is really not an elite force. So in a great game, I think the Buckeyes pull one out by a 20-17 type score.

Michigan plays Michigan State in a 3:30 EST kickoff on ABC. This game is a big mismatch for the Spartans, but in a rivalry-type game, especially against a proud program, it never plays out that easy. Just as they did last week, I expect the Wolverines to come out and make some early statements, and to eventually hang in the game much longer then they were able to in Happy Valley. But they just don't have the weaponry to stay with Michigan State and the UM defense has not delivered on its preseason expectation to carry the load. Besides, MSU has plenty of motivation themselves. They need this win to stay in the lead for the Capital One Bowl and even more pertinent, they owe Michigan payback for a heartbreaking loss lost year (and, well, several others over the years) and then having Michael Hart refer to them as the "little-brother" school. Hart's quote in context wasn't quite as condescending as it might appear, but coaches are more ruthless then political strategists when it comes to material for the bulletin board. Look for MSU to have the all the juice it needs to hold off Michigan's early hits.

Notre Dame travels to Washington in an 8 EST kick on ESPN. This game has interest mainly as a battle between Charlie Weis and the man he replaced in Ty Willingham. The Huskies are winless thus far, so the Irish absolutely must have this game. They've got a very good shot at a Gator Bowl bid right now if they can get to 8-4, but there's no scenario where they get eight wins that doesn't include taking care of business here. I suspect ND will struggle a bit on the road, but the W-L record indicates that Washington isn't strong enough to take advantage.

**Editor's Note: Due to technical problems with my host company, I was unable to post links to hometown newspapers, as is customary on game previews and recaps.

Must-Win Road Tests

The noon EST time slot on Saturday features three teams facing must-win games if they're going to keep themselves in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl game. Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois all need to get W's in road tilts. In the case of the former two teams, they can theoretically afford to lose these games and still bounce back. However, practically speaking, a loss in either case would signal alarm bells about their ability to win out the rest of the way. And Illinois put itself up against a wall when they lost at home to the Gophers two weeks ago, and unless they plan on beating Ohio State a second straight year, they can't afford to be losing in other spots.

Northwestern goes to Indiana. The one thing certain in what's been a chaotic year amongst the eight teams situated between the elites and the basement is that IU's holding down the #11 hole. Terry Hutchens of The Indianapolis Star reports that the Hoosier faithful is none too optimistic about even winning a single Big Ten game. In the meantime, the Wildcats are rolling along at 6-1 and getting good offensive balance between C.J. Bacher at quarterback and Tyrrell Sutton in the backfield. The latter has not had the kind of superstar season I was watching for, but he's still been pretty good and the 'Cats have more then filled in around him.

Minnesota travels to Purdue. This is a test game for the Gophs. They are coming off a bye week and the Boilermakers look ready to unravel after being routed by Northwestern last week. But keep in mind that Rick Brewster's team has been far from dominant. They built their early season record on a soft schedule, struggled to get past Indiana at home and beat Illinois primarily on the strength of turnovers. Whether they can maintain their focus and come up with a big win on the road against a very beatable team will be a key test of how fast they are progressing. Kent Youngblood of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune opines that the offensive line is now starting to stabilize, after injuries and lineup changes. A win here would signal that Brewster has the team back to its Mason-era level where they were a team that might not have been championship-level, but was one no contender wanted to mess with.

Illinois goes north to Wisconsin. The Badger defense is going to have to play vastly better then they have for the past two weeks and realistically need their best game of the season. With the quarterback position in flux and the running game far from its customary dominant self, UW has no hope of winning a scoring race with Juice Williams' offense. If the Illini don't beat themselves, I can't see the Badgers slowing them down sufficiently in this ESPN2 telecast. Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times declares that receiver Aurelious Benn has been even better in his encore performance.

Bowl Projections

It's that time again. Time to start projecting who's going where in the BCS bowl games and the big New Year's Day games for the Big Ten. In another week or two, the projections will include every bowl game on the Big Ten card.

The selections rules are thus: The six BCS conferences all get automatics, and there are four at-large bids. Of course the top two teams in the final BCS rankings go to the national championship game and the other eight fill up the remaining quartet. One important note to remember as you track this throughout the coming weeks is that no conference can get more then one at-large bid. So if you see several teams in the SEC or Big 12 ranked high, remember that only the league champion and one other team can be chosen.

Each conference has its "natural" bowl game, where its champion goes if it doesn't play for the national title. The Big Ten obviously goes to the Rose, along with the Pac-10. The Big 12 goes FIesta, while the SEC is tied to the Sugar. The ACC has the Orange Bowl, while the Big East champ is a free agent.

Once these automatic spots are filled, the selection process begins. The first two picks are replacement choices for the bowls that lost teams to the national title game. Whomever lost the #1 team picks first, and the bowl who lost #2 then fills its vacancy. After that, the selection order rotates annually. This year, the order goes 1)Fiesta, 2)Sugar, 3)Orange.

And one final point to remember is that in the superconferences, the teams that lose conference championship games are at a pronounced disadvantage in the race for at-larges. Historically, bowls have shied away from picking teams coming off a recent loss whose fan base has just traveled. Last year illustrated this rule clearly when Kansas was chosen over Missouri and Georgia was picked ahead of Tennessee, in both cases the actual at-large pick finishing behind their rival in the divisional standings.

So without further adieu, here's the current projection:

BCS National Championship Game: Texas vs. Florida. Until something happens to shake up the applecart, I'm just presuming the Big 12 plays the SEC. And I think the Gators are much better then Georgia or Alabama, who stand in their way.

Fiesta: Penn State vs. Oklahoma. The Fiesta gets the first pick to replace Texas and jumps on Joe Pa. The chance to pair them up with OU, a program that has beaten Paterno twice in bowl games, but been embarrassed the last two years in Tempe is too good to pass up.

Sugar: Georgia vs. South Florida. The Dogs benefit from not making the conference title game and edge out Alabama for the nod to New Orleans. The Big East race is crazy, so I'm just sticking with my preseason call of the Bulls until proven otherwise.

Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Boise State. The ACC has no one consistent, but the Hokies have beaten division rivals North Carolina and Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels blew their chance last week when the lost to Virginia. And 2006's great Cinderella story is back for more with another undefeated year in the works.

Rose: Ohio State vs. USC. This would be a rich matchup. Would Terrel Prior and a healthy Chris Wells be enough to turn around the Buckeye's September shellacking? One thing's for sure--between this game and the PSU-OU game above, the Big Ten would have plenty of redemption opportunity under this scenario.

Capital One: Michigan State vs. Alabama. The Spartans, in spite of last week's wipeout by OSU, have seized command of the New Year's race in the Big Ten. The collapse of Wisconsin and Michigan has removed the biggest threats to them, as now they are vying with Northwestern and Minnesota. Not only is MSU better then both rivals on the field, but they are a better TV draw and traveling program off of it.

Outback: Minnesota vs. LSU. Unbelievable that I'm typing the Gophers in this spot, but their own improvement combined with a soft schedule make it the likeliest scenario right now. Even more unbelievable is that their game with Northwestern is probably winner-take-all for this January 1 date.

Fun Scenario: These projections are often limited in what one can speculate on, because if one thread is pulled from the sweater the whole thing unravels. So let's just take one alternate scenario at a time. Let's say USC edges out Florida for the spot opposite Texas in the title game, with everything else holding the same. The Sugar Bowl might very well choose to opt for Boise State. Why would they choose them over nearby South Florida? Don't forget the other ending to 2006. While the Gators were national champs, Boise was the nation's only unbeaten, and this game could be easily marketed as their chance to prove it one more time. BSU's main attraction to a bowl is building off their miracle win over OU and having them play Florida is the best way to do that.

October 18 Game Summaries

Penn State 46 Michigan 17
It took longer then Nittany Lions were comfortable with, but after digging themselves a 17-7 hole, Penn State got rid of the Michigan jinx in grand fashion. The Wolverine passing game remains utterly appalling. They netted only 89 passing yards and even a Big Ten traditionalist like me isn't ready to see the days of that kind of offense return. It served to negate a nice game by Brandon Minor. The Lions exhibited a balanced attack, led up by Evan Royster who had 174 rushing yards and Darryl Clark again ran the offense with cool efficiency. From a defensive standpoint, Jeff Rice of The Centre Daily Times says the Lions unleashed the linebackers. Penn State is now set to go to the Horseshoe next week for the Big Ten's game of the year.

Ohio State 45 Michigan State 7
The Buckeyes will arrive for the showdown in great shape themselves. Jim Tressel's team played its most complete game of the year in a complete thrashing of a good MSU team. While Chris Wells had a big game, the OSU defense was the star of the show. They shut down Javon Ringer, ended the Spartan back's hopes for the Heisman and altered the course of the race for conference MVP along with it. It was the kind of game everyone expected from the Bucks back in August. Bob Hunter of The Columbus Dispatch declares they've arrived just where you would have expected.

Iowa 38 Wisconsin 16
The one team expected to challenge the OSU-PSU duo for supremacy back in August and September continued its implosion. The University of Wisconsin football program is now in a mad race with Wall Street to see who can have the most brutal autumn. The Badgers lost the turnover battle 3-0, and Shon Greene continued to be the league's most pleasant surprise for the Hawkeyes. Greene rushed for 217 yards and again carried the Iowa offense. It was a win that Kirk Ferentz needed to keep his bowl hopes on track. And to everyone's amazement, missing a bowl entirely is not only possible for the 3-4 Badgers, but likely given how they have regressed each of the last four weeks.

Northwestern 48 Purdue 26
One of the teams looking to take UW's place in the hiearchy is Northwestern. The Wildcats may not have beaten anyone good yet, but they took a significant step on Saturday in showing they could decisively handle a mediocre squad. The Boilers turned it over five times, negating a 168-yard effort by Kory Sheets. NU is at 6-1. Who would have thought that in mid-October we'd be looking at the Northwestern-Minnesota game as one that might have a January bowl game hanging in the balance?

Illinois 55 Indiana 13
The Juice was on the loose again in Bloomington. Both he and Aurelious Benn had big games in routing the Hoosiers. But the surprise in the Illinois attack was freshman running back Jason Ford, who racked up 172 yards. IU proved to be the salve Illinois needed after letting one slip away last week against Minnesota. As for Indiana, after making a bowl game last year, they are back to their normal state of affairs of welcoming the opening of basketball practice. Hoops isn't likely to bring the usual solace to Hoosier Nation, but Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star opines that at least the hallowed program is clean again.

The Curse of '96 Still Haunts

It was November of 1996, and I was still living back in my old hometown of Milwaukee. I was coming out of the gym and stopped with my wealthier friend who had the club membership in the lounge to watch some football and relax. In November '96, Bill Clinton had just been re-elected and Monica Lewinsky was an unknown White House intern. Joe Torre had just finished leading the Yankees to their first World Series title in 18 years. Yup, it seems like ages ago. That football game we watched that November afternoon was a Penn State thrashing of Michigan. It was the last time the Nittany Lions have beaten the Wolverines. Can they end the curse this week with UM reeling and PSU smelling a national title?

Jo-Ann Barnas of The Detroit Free Press reports that Lion fans are still fearful. And the Penn State fan featured in the photo two posts below wrote on his Facebook profile that he's not optimistic (then again this particular fan was probably nervous they wouldn't get past Coastal Carolina). But there really can be no excuses. Even with Ohio State next week. Even coming off a trashing of Wisconsin on the road. This Penn State team is too superior to this edition of Michigan, the game is in Happy Valley (4:30 EST, ESPN) and the UM brand name is still worth getting fired up for. Especially when you haven't beaten them in 12 years.

A better game is Ohio State's visit to East Lansing (3:30 EST, ABC). The beef of the schedule is hitting for Michigan State, but it's also the opportunity part of the schedule. Javon Ringer can break out of the slew of Big 12 quarterbacks currently overshadowing him for the Heisman if he can have a big game. He certainly has the attention of the folks in Columbus, as reported by Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch. But OSU should be able to move the ball on the Spartans. I look for this to be tight into the third quarter, and then for the Buckeyes to start to pull away. I think Tressel's team is too motivated for a chance at redemption and paradoxically, MSU's sound play early in the year has probably removed the "trap" element from the matchup.

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In basketball news, Bob Knight told ESPN.com he'd be interested in coaching again given the right situation. Personally I'd love to see the General come back. Hard to see where he might fit into the Big Ten, but it would be great for college basketball if this legend, underappreciate for his soundness of character (as opposed to just his winning teams) got a chance to again coach at a school with a real shot at the Final Four.

Must-Win On The Undercard

Six teams are facing must-win situations in the Big Ten's undercard games this week. Foremost among them is a noon EST game in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes host the Badgers. Iowa finally showed some life last week in blowing out Indiana, but needing three more wins to make it to a bowl game won't be easy and they are going to have beat quality teams now. Of course the question of whether Wisconsin is such a quality team is now in serious doubt, with UW staring at an 0-3 conference record and a quarterback controversy on its hands. No announcement has been made, but Jeff Potrykus of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that freshmen Dustin Sherer has been practicing with the first team. While I don't think Wisconsin is as bad is they looked last week (mainly because such would be impossible), I think it's naive for Wiscy fans to assume a quick resurrection to the season now that Ohio State and Penn State are passed. This is a struggling team and is traveling to a place that has not been friendly. I suspect Iowa's weaknesses are even more acute, so I'll pick the Badgers in a nail-biter, but this is a game with considerably less juice then might have been expected just a few weeks ago.

Northwestern hosts Purdue in another noon game, this one on ESPN2. The Boilermakers might attribute their 0-2 league record to having drawn the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes to start conference play. Fair enough, but they weren't playing great in non-conference play as it was. The Wildcats were also a shaky 5-0 team that was undressed last week by Michigan State. As the Big Ten season unfolds in a chaotic manner, this might be one of the few places NU can turn to get the wins they need to get to a bowl. As for Purdue, Tom Kubat of The Journal Courier opines that getting the offense untracked is the key to a turnaround.

Illinois goes to Indiana in a prime-time 8 EST kick on the Network. Juice Williams says both teams desperately need the win, and he's right. But all desperation isn't created equal, and the Hoosiers do not have the defense to contain Williams. If the Illini don't beat themselves like last week, they will win easily. A more interesting test will be whether Ron Zook's defense plays well. They have not had a truly outstanding game yet, and Indiana did ring up the points against a comparable team in Michigan State. Illinois is one of several teams we're still waiting to really get a bead on and the defense is key to that.

Is Penn State Number One?

Is this optimistic Penn State fan that I attended their thrashing of Wisconsin with justified in flashing the index finger? Not yet, according to the polls, but the Nittany Lions are climbing fast. They are up to #3 and got some first-place votes in the coaches poll, the one that will count toward the BCS Standings. Only Alabama and Texas stand in the way of seeing Joe Paterno coach perhaps his final game for the national championship. (Well, there's the minor matter of Ohio State & Michigan State, but I refer only to matters Paterno can't control).

Here's a brief overview of how the race for the title is shaping up, conference-by-conference. I tried to be generous in who was a contender, as you will see, since the certain upsets ahead of us will provide opportunity for unlikely heroes.

Big East--They have four teams with one loss. Even I can't be so generous as to include Pitt and Cincinnati as contenders, but circle a November 23 game between UConn and South Florida. If both can win out until then and dominoes fall above them, that will be a game with impact.

ACC--Six teams have one loss and all are legit contenders for the league championship. Virginia Tech is the strongest contender for national honors, simply because of its reputation and they have a head-to-head win over fellow contender North Carolina. The Hokies play at BC, at Miami and at Florida State over the next four weeks. If they are still on only one loss then, we'll consider them seriously. The Tar Heels remain the stronger prospect, as their schedule makes a win-out very possible. Wake Forest is also on just one defeat, but needs to win road games at Maryland and Miami the next two weeks.

Big Ten--we talk about our home conference almost every day here, so we'll trust you know to circle October 25 and Penn State-Ohio State on the calendar. Here's a thought for you to kick around--Minnesota showed its bona fides in beating Illinois and could theoretically be favored in all but one of their remaining games. That one exception is at Wisconsin, and we have no idea how the Badgers are going to respond right now. Thinking the Gophs for the national title is on a par with my joking weekend prediction of Vandy-Northwestern in an all-academic showdown. But not having Penn State or Michigan State on the schedule is clearly paying Rick Brewster some big dividends.

SEC--every media person's favorite league is down to four teams, who will settle it head-to-head. Alabama and LSU will play in the West, Georgia-Florida in the East. Any of the four that win out should find themselves in Miami, and 'Bama can probably still lose a game, so long as its not a division-costing one to LSU.

Big 12--this one is just crazy. Six teams have one loss or fewer and are ranked. Four are in the Top 10. To give this the proper analysis I'd have to spend so much time on it that this site would need to be re-named Big Twelve Country. But let's start with this: Texas hosts Missouri next week. The Longhorns do *not* need to win this game. If they win out, they would bump fellow unbeatens Texas Tech & Oklahoma State and still win their division. Then they'd rematch with Missouri in the conference title game. There's no way they would be denied Miami if they were 12-1 with the only loss being this coming Saturday. The Tigers have everything on the line, but the 'Horns have some slack.

Pac-10: USC & Cal play in November. The Trojans will see enough teams ahead of them lose to get back in contention and only their habit of pulling unexpected clunkers can deny them an 11-1 season. The question is a political one--will the voters forgive their habit, in light of the fact its in its third year? Ohio State can testify how tough it can be to shed a bad rap. And unlike the Buckeyes, SC actually deserves the heat launched their way for a lack of concentration.

BCS Busters: Boise State and Ball State just don't have the schedule strength to make it even if they win out. They may get a major bowl bid, but not the top game. BYU & Utah are probably in the same boat, but at least they have each other. The Coogs and Utes tee it up on November 22 in a game that will get serious media attention if both are unbeaten, and BYU is already in the Top 10.

Overall? We should assume a Big 12 vs. SEC battle until something happens to rattle the applecart. The good news for the Nittany Lions is that winning in Columbus, along with the inevitable loss by either the Tide or Horns would be just such a rattling. The bigger question is whether PSU could survive a close loss in Columbus or the Buckeyes could get back in the picture at all. I think the Lions would have a 50/50 shot, while OSU's chances are more remote, because of an unjust political situation they face.