Big Ten Country

More Bowl Talk

Below are comments from Big Ten Country contributor Steve Rhoads, who lives just outside Madison and his wife is a Wisconsin alum. Steve discusses the bowl prospects of the Badgers, the Big Ten in general and also that of his own alma mater, the Virginia Tech Hokies out here in ACC territory, where I live, just outside of Baltimore. For anyone wondering how it is I'm editing Big Ten Country, I "grew up" (for lack of a better term) outside Milwaukee and lived in the Midwest until I was almost 30. I'm living proof that you can take the boy out of the Big Ten, but you can't take the Big Ten out of the boy. Anyway, here's Steve's remarks, along with some of my own...

"UW will probably go to the Insight Bowl with a win over Minnesota and the Motor City Bowl with a loss. I think the Champs Sports and possibly Alamo are still in play, with a win. I think Iowa basically got the inside track on the Outback bid with their upset win on Saturday...unless Minnesota can pull out back to back wins against Wisconsin (Axe) and Iowa (Floyd of Rosedale), then they will deserve it at 9-3.

I disagree those who say the Big Ten is in serious jeopardy of not getting two BCS bids. My response is "If not the Big Ten, who else?" The SEC and Big 12 are locked in for 2 of the 4 At-Larges, but you cannot have 3 teams from one conference. Notre Dame is out, and the ACC, Big East and Pac 10 are virtual locks NOT to get two bids. That leaves the Big Ten and the non-BCS leagues. It seems a certainty that the non-BCS leagues will get at least one bid this year, most likely Utah. But will this be the year there are two non-BCS league bids? Very, very unlikely. It comes down to who would they rather have: Ohio State or Boise State/Ball State? That is a no-brainer. Plus, the BCS will not want to have two teams from small conferences playing in BCS Bowls. They are a hard sell. So count the Big Ten for two BCS bids. The sleeper is Michigan State, who could sneak out a bid with a win over Penn State, but it would probably have to be coupled with another Ohio State loss for them to go to the BCS. That scenario puts them in Pasadena.

Though I like my Hokies chance at getting to the ACC Championship, you still have to like my North Carolina pre-season pick. They are 7-2, with three highly winnable games (MD, NC St and Duke) and that would win the ACC Coastal, unless VT can also run the table. My guess is that one of the teams runs the table, but the other doesn't."

Dan adds:

For the most part I agree. One caveat I would add is that I think Minnesota's position for the Outback is stronger then Steve seems to think. I believe the Gophers get the bid if they beat Iowa and their game in Madison is largely irrelevant (unless they're just blown out). The Minnesota-Iowa game is essentially what the race for the last January 1 berth boils down to.

I also think Wisconsin is Alamo-bound if they beat Minnesota and Cal-Poly. The Badgers haven't been to San Antonio since 2002 and remain of the league's most attractive options for a minor bowl because of the way fans travel. If UW ends up 6-6, I would concur that they're Motor City-bound.

Bowl projections are updated.

November 8 Summaries

Iowa 24 Penn State 23
Penn State's national championship hopes were dashed in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes rallied with ten fourth quarter points and won it on a last-second field goal. The key to the game was the inability of Penn State to mount a consistent air attack. Daryl Clark threw for only 86 yards, and while the Evan Royster-led running game wasn't bad, it wasn't nearly enough to compensate. The Lions have no realistic hope of rebounding to play in the BCS National Championship Game. Ohio State recovered from a late loss last year, but given the lack of respect for the Big Ten among the pollsters, a similar recovery will almost surely not be allowed. Iowa was able to thrust itself onto the front-tier of all the middle teams vying for the Jan. 1 Outback Bowl bid.

Ohio State 45 Northwestern 10
The Buckeyes used a 17-point second quarter run to put this game to bed early. Terrel Prior threw for 197 yards, Chris Wells rushed for 140, and Tressel's troops won the turnover battle 3-0. Penn State's loss means the Rose Bowl is now much less likely as a postseason option, but the Bucks now have something better in sight--they control their own destiny to share the conference title, the fourth straight year they'll have finished in the money. Even if they don't win the tiebreakers for Pasadena, a BCS bowl game would still be waiting.

Michigan State 21 Purdue 7
The Spartans did it with defense, holding the Boilermakers to 83 yards passing and 191 overall. Purdue did not score until there were only 42 seconds left. Javon Ringer went for a workmanlike 121 yards. Michigan State is at 6-1 in the conference and has only Penn State remaining in two weeks. If they win that game in Happy Valley they would be at least co-champs of the conference and would be a contender for a BCS bid. No matter what, this win all but locks up at least the Capital One Bowl.

Michigan 29 Minnesota 6
Michigan finally looked themselves this week. They asserted themselves on the ground, winning the rushing battle 232-83 and they forced Gopher quarterback Adam Weber into his worst game of the season. The strong ground attack and potent defense is what UM should have been doing from the start, regardless of the adjustment to a spread offense. Minnesota has lost its once-firm grip on a New Year's Day bid, and still has tough games with Wisconsin & Iowa ahead.

Wisconsin 55 Indiana 20
The Badgers & Hoosiers played a track meet in the first half, with the points going faster then they would if these two schools played basketball. But Wisconsin busted open a 21-20 game with 34 unanswered points in the second half. To no one's surprise, the Badgers did it with the running game, with three rushers clearing the 100-yard mark. To everyone's surprise, the leading rusher was receiver David Gilreath who ran the end-around with an efficiency I haven't seen on that play since Tecmo Bowl first came out. Wisconsin all but locked up a bowl bid, moving to 5-5 and still having a game with Cal-Poly in two weeks that will get them to eligiblity, regardless of what happens against Minnesota next Saturday.

Boston College 17 Notre Dame 0
Irish hopes for a January 1 game disappeared under a flurry of interceptions. Jimmy Clausen's been good this year, but last night was rough. He threw four picks, including one that was taken to the house in the second quarter. In fairness, he didn't get much support. ND had no ground game to speak of. But the Irish defense stepped up and played a good game, and without the mistakes, there would have at least been a chance at the road upset.

Western Michigan 23 Illinois 17
One year ago it was Iowa. This time it was Illinois who fell to the Broncos. Just like last year, this upset could have disastrous effects on bowl prospects. The Illini are now at 5-5 and still have to play Ohio State and Northwestern. WMU quarterback Trent Hiller threw for 301 yards. Juice Williams wasn't bad, but threw two picks and there was no consistent running game to support him.

Penn State's Next Test

Is this Penn State's last big test before the national championship game? That's the media consensus, which ignores both Michigan State at the end of the season and the possiblity the Lions might need more help then meets the eye to get to Miami, but Saturday's game in Iowa does combine with other big national matchups to make this the biggest weekend for Penn State fans since 2005.

The Hawkeyes have been gradually improving and have avoided the meltdown that looked very possible when they lost at Pitt in non-conference play and then dropped a home game to Northwestern. Neither loss looks as bad now as it did then. They still have their inconsistencies and flaws, but Shon Greene has emerged as an MVP candidate at running back and any Kirk Ferentz team is going to be tough to handle on its homefield.

But the scheduling circumstances favor Penn State too strongly. The Lions are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to get their emotions stoked, as they were passed in the BCS standings and the need not only to win, but to win big was further emblazoned into the team psyche. Now this doesn't necessarily mean they will win big, but it is a surefire guide against complacency. And even allowing Iowa its due respect, they need PSU to be off edge to pull the upset. It is difficult to see that happening. While Michigan State is a better opponent then Iowa, this is the biggest test for Penn State simply because its on the road.

By night's end, the Lions may not only have passed the test, but have passed their way into the top two. Texas Tech plays host to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders were the beneficiaries of scheduling benefits themselves when they beat Texas last week. The Longhorns were on the fourth straight week of national title elimination games (OU, Missouri, Oklahoma State preceded that game) and Tech still needed last-play heroics to pull it out. Even if they win this one tomorrow night, they will not beat Oklahoma and they will not win the Big 12 title. The other end of the championship-game spectrum is in the SEC where the stakes are much higher. Alabama goes to LSU and nothing could benefit the Lions more then for the Tide to lose. In Tuesday's post, I discussed the danger Penn State faces from a one-loss Florida team. If Alabama goes to the conference championship game at 12-0 to play an 11-1 Gator squad, that game might amount to a de facto national semifinal. Penn State should root for the Tide to lose now and then to win the conference championship, as their non-conference schedule is not as strong as Florida's, and therefore not as likeable to the BCS computers.

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Notre Dame goes to Boston College, as the Catholic Church stages its annual grudge match. The Irish put themselves behind the eight-ball when they lost to Pitt, and now need this game to keep alive any chance of getting a New Year's Day bid without beating USC. They've got the quarterback play to do it and BC has been up and down along with the rest of the ACC, but ND is going to have start hittting and defending the run with a little more fervor.

Illinois goes outside the Big Ten this week with a game against Western Michigan at Ford Field. The Illini can't afford a slipup, as they are at 5-4 with games against Ohio State and Northwestern remaining. Western Michigan knocked Iowa out of a bowl game last November and is looking to provide a repeat spoiler performance

Buckeyes Eye Pasadena

Four conference games occupy the noon EST time slot and all four are rife with bowl implications--

Ohio State-Northwestern is the key game of the early part of the day. The Buckeyes are realistically in complete control of their destiny to make a BCS bowl game. The prospect of a grudge match with Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl (presuming Penn State is able to make the national championship game) is more then enough to keep OSU focused and hungry. Northwestern quite likely has the inside track to the Outback Bowl on January 1, but they have a tough row to hoe coming down the stretch. The Wildcats have gotten to 7-2 with a good dose of smoke and mirrors and it's tough to see them staying with Tressel's troops in this one, even given their homefield edge.

Purdue goes to Michigan State. The Boilermakers helped make their season with last week's upset of Michigan, even allowing how down the Wolverines are this year. If we were in West Lafayette, this might be an upset spot. Michigan State did not play well last week, but still got a thrilling win over Wisconsin. And they may have started the lookahead process to a season-ending showdown at Penn State. I look for MSU to be a little sluggish, but their advantage on Purdue is large enough not to be beaten at home.

Wisconsin needs to win two of its final three just to be bowl-eligible and they can hardly be assured of beating Minnesota at home next week. Neither circumstance was remotely in the mind of the Badger faithful back in August. But it makes this week's road game at Indiana an absolute must-win. IU has played well enough to annoy better teams then UW on their home field (notably Michigan State). I hesitate to pick the upset, but if I were a betting man, Wisconsin makes me skittish enough that I wouldn't touch them. They should have motivation. If they win out (Cal-Poly is the season finale), they could rise as high as the Alamo Bowl, drawing a decent Big 12 team that could help them salvage their season. But Bret Bielama's team's meltdown has been so complete that they can only inspire confidence when compared to the Detroit Lions.

Minnesota's in a vulnerable spot in Ann Arbor. Sooner or later, the Wolverines have to find a way to assert some pride. Other then a dramatic fourth quarter against Wisconsin back in September, we haven't seen it. And the Gophers have to be down and drained after letting last week's game against Northwestern slip away. This will be the start of three straight rivalry games for Minnesota. They traditionally play Michigan for the Little Brown Jug, then they close out with geographic rivals in Wisconsin & Iowa.

Too Close To Call In Pennsylvania

It's Election Night and the votes are too close to call in Pennsylvania. At least in college football, that is. After Texas Tech's surprise leap to #2 in the BCS standings, the possibility that Joe Paterno might end his career with a team unbeaten and uncrowned is suddenly looking to be a distinct--if bitterly ironic--possiblity.

The general sense in opinion columns written have basically consoled Lion fans not to worry, that Texas Tech will surely lose a game. And that's almost certainly true, as the Red Raiders still have to navigate Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and a potential Big 12 title game. If they pull that off, they'd have passed the Lions eventually anyway.

But that's a shortsighted view. Brad Edwards, the resident BCS expert on ESPN.com has pointed out that a significant danger is posed to Penn State by one-loss contenders such as Florida and either Texas or Oklahoma, presuming one of those two wins the Big 12 South. Penn State's predicament gets worse when you consider that they are currently winning the human vote. So the ground they can gain based on a sentimental vote for Paterno is limited. Whereas the ground they can lose to human voters as the Longhorns and Gators play big games down the stretch is considerable. And they can't afford to lose any, because the computers are not happy with the Lions. Undoubtedly, a non-conference schedule that included Coastal Carolina, Syracuse and Temple didn't help.

I believe strongly that a champion of a BCS conference who is undefeated deserves a shot at the title. If both the Big 12 & SEC produce unbeatens, it's fair to defer to them this year, but under the current system the Lions should not be leapfrogged by a one-loss team. They blew out Oregon State, the team who beat USC. And they won their biggest game of the season on the road.

That said, Florida does have a gripe (presuming obviously that they win out). While playing in the SEC might not be the equivalent of winning the NFC East the way their fanatical supporters make it out to be, it is the top league in the country. And the Gators manned up outside the league, in playing both Miami & Florida State. Their loss was by a single point, on a blocked PAT. It's not really reasonable to expect a team to run that gauntlet unscathed.

A potential Florida-Penn State debate shows the benefits of delaying the championship game until after the bowls. The Lions could go to the Rose and if they beat USC, surely even the biggest Big Ten basher wouldn't be ready to deny them their place in the sun. The Gators could still get in if they got the right breaks elsewhere. We could have a midmajor play a top-ranked team and validate their standing before giving them a crack at the biggest prize. And by the conclusion of the bowls we'd have a feel for whether the Big 12 is for real or not (they have really done nothing, good or bad, outside the league).

But under the current system, the principle should be clear. Win all your games in a major conference and you always go in ahead of a one-loss squad. Penn State deserves a shot if Texas Tech or Alabama lose. Joe Paterno's seen unbeaten teams in 1968, 1969, 1973 and 1994 go uncrowned. Let's not it happen again in 2008.

Bowl projections are updated.

Cardiac Saturday

The top powers may have been out of action, but there was no shortage of excitement. All four conference games were decided by scores in the final thirty seconds of play, and Notre Dame's game with Pitt went an astonishing four overtimes. Then to cap it off, Texas Tech upended #1 Texas on the game's last play and opened the door for Penn State to play in the BCS National Championship Game.

Michigan State 25 Wisconsin 24
Wisconsin outgained Michigan State by more then 100 yards. They held a stunning 281-25 advantage in rushing yards, with both P.J. Hill and John Clay clearing the century mark. UW was up by 11 points with just nine minutes to play. How do you lose a game like this? Penalties. Wisconsin committed 12 penalties for over 120 yards. In the Alvarez era this was the kind of game the Badgers were usually on the other side of. The same can be said of Michigan State and its recent run of head coaches. But with UW now suddenly more loosey-goosey and Mark Dantonio having a firm hold of his football team, it's the Spartans who stay disciplined and steal games they have no business winning. The victory further tightens MSU's grip on the Capital One Bowl bid and keeps them in the hunt for the conference title when they wrap up the season at Penn State.

Northwestern 24 Minnesota 17
Minnesota's another team that has been winning all season by letting other teams beat themselves. But the tables were turned in the closing seconds at the Metrodome. Adam Weber had played an exquisite game, completing 31 of 51 throws for 327 yards. But deep in his own territory, the Gophers inexplicably went for points rather then playing for overtime. What happened next was still a fluke, as Weber's lone interception was batted around before landing in the arms of Brendan Smith, who took it the house with twelve seconds left. But it was a fluke made possible by a decision in which the risks far outweighed the rewards. The loss doesn't have to be devastating to Minny. They still have an easier schedule the rest of the way then Northwestern, and and have to be considered the frontrunner for the New Year's Day bid to the Outback Bowl. But the overly aggressive playcalling hurt them at the end. For Northwestern, Smith wasn't the only hero. Mike Kafka took over at quarterback for C.J. Bacher and showed off his legs, rushing for 217 yards.

Illinois 27 Iowa 24
The Illini nearly gave this one up, letting the Hawks rally from 24-9 down in the fourth quarter to tie it, before a 46-yard Matt Eller field goal won it in the closing seconds. For Iowa, Shon Greene continued to rush well, netting 103 yards. Greene's play has been a huge surprise and he should now be the frontrunner for Big Ten MVP.

Purdue 48 Michigan 42
And the quartet of thrillers was rounded out as Purdue put a stake in Michigan's bowl hopes. A 42-42 tie was broken in the final half-minute when Justin Siller hit Desmond Tardy on a 28-yard scoring strike. It capped a win in which the Boilers decisively outplayed the Wolverines, with Michigan being in it primarily on the strength of Brandon Minor's 155 rushing yards and big punt return for a touchdown by Martavious Odoms. We've said it here on Big Ten Country before and we'll say it again now. The whole "difficult transition" line can't get Rich Rodriguez off the hook for games like this. There was never a reason for the UM defense to be this bad. R-Rod may well turn it around, but there is no excuse for the season he is having. And whatever happens in the future, hopefully there's some alumni in Ann Arbor who've learned a lesson in humility for the way they treated Lloyd Carr. 

Pitt 36 Notre Dame 33 (4 OT)
A heartbreaking loss for the Irish, who got another strong outing from Jimmy Clausen, who threw for 271 yards & three touchdowns, with no interceptions to be found. But Notre Dame couldn't stop Pitt's ground game and LeSean McCoy rolled up 169 yards. The loss puts ND in a must-win situation at Boston College next week if they want a New Year's Day bowl bid. Jeff Carroll of The South Bend Tribune finds the team's inability to win a game like this to be disturbing.

Central Michigan 37 Indiana 34
Brian Brunner threw for 485 yards, as IU was unable to contain the Chippewa quarterback. The loss quickly squelches any positive vibes the Hoosiers had after upsetting Northwestern last week.