The Super Bowl is over, spring training is still a few weeks off and the NBA & NHL have months to get serious. February is the time the heart of the sports fan can focus full-bore on college hoops. As we round the turn into this key part of the year, Michigan State is the one Big Ten team that looks capable of making a legitimate run at a national championship. Of course they need a healthy Raymar Morgan before that can happen, but assuming Morgan does return the Spartans have the right blend of backcourt play, frontcourt dominance, genuine star power (Morgan and Kalin Lucas) and experienced coaching to be hometown heroes when the Final Four comes to Detroit on April 4 & 6.
There's no guarantee MSU will win the Big Ten--as long as Morgan is out of the lineup, that one-game lead in the conference standings entering tonight looks precarious. But they are the one program with a realistic scenario for winning the whole ball of wax.
How does the rest of the nation look? If we peer out beyond the borders of Big Ten Country and into the other BCS conferences, who else looks like they're a legit contender?
ACC: The trio of Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina is outstanding and will wage a dynamite race for the league championship. The Tar Heels got all the preseason hype and Tyler Hansborough has lived up to his Player of the Year billing. The backcourt of Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington is explosive. Neither of their two losses---home against Boston College (17-6) and on the road at Wake seem as bad now as when they happened, particularly the latter. Down the road at Durham, Coach K is doing another stellar coaching job and Kyle Singler is a legit All-American candidate at power forward. But I suspect that just as was the case last year, Duke's lack of depth on the interior is going to cost them in the push for both conference and national honors. Wake Forest is the real deal. Jeff Teague in the backcourt has an argument for being the best player in the country and they are very tough up front with three strong rebounders. But they blew a big lead late in the game at home against the Dookies, before winning at the buzzer and it bears wondering how they'll stand up on the road against their two rivals and in the pressure cooker of the NCAA Tournament. Clemson is also ranked in the Top 10, but they need a big-time win to really be national title material. A date with Duke tonight will be a big testing ground.
Big East: This conference might grab 9 or 10 NCAA bids, and four of them have hopes of cutting down the nets on April 6. UConn is ranked #1 in the country and solidified their standing Monday night with a dominating 68-51 win at Louisville. The Huskies are very well-coached by Jim Calhoun and have a powerful inside combination of Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Tabeet, who combine for 20 rebounds a game. A.J. Price and Jerome Dyson lead up the backcourt and make them a well-balanced team. But at this writing, they're not leading the pack in their own league. Marquette is 9-0 in Big East play and might have the best three-guard package in America with Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Dominic James. But like Duke in the ACC, I think MU doesn't have enough solid inside people to rise above second or third, and they would need bracket breaks in March to go all the way. We'll find out down the stretch--from February 25 to March 4, the Golden Eagles play UConn, Louisville and Pitt in succession. The 'Ville showed a lot of weaknesses on Monday, particularly shooting the ball. Rick Pitino's teams will always play hard and play defense and that will keep them in contention, but all it will take is one bad shooting night to show them the exit door at Madison Square Garden and later in the NCAAs. And Pitt is a poor man's version of UConn--they're sound inside and have good backcourt play. But if you have to bet on a champion, why take the poor man's version when you can get the real thing?
SEC: On the national stage this conference has been awful. Florida and LSU are leading the way and each has a signature player in Nick Calathes and Marcus Thornton respectively. But there's not championship-type depth of talent on either squad. The SEC better stick to football.
Big 12: Kansas was supposed to be rebuilding after its championship run last spring, but the Jayhawks are undefeated in league play, tied with Oklahoma at the top. Both teams have top-flight centers. Blake Griffin for the Sooners is in the same class as Hansborough and Notre Dame's Luke Harangody. Kansas brings Cole Aldrich to the table. Now good backcourt play is vital to winning in March, but what happens when so many contenders have excellent guards? Then the advantage given to teams like and OU and Kansas who have top post players will start to stand out. The Sooners in particular, have two solid scorers in the backcourt in Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, and this team could finish what the university's football team couldn't. Texas has faded a bit in recent weeks and Missouri needs a quality win to show its 18-4 mark is for real.
Pac-10: Not as strong as they've been in recent years and though UCLA is tied for first with Washington, this edition of the Bruins is not the same as the one that's made three straight Final Fours. I'll be traveling to Arizona for a vacation next week and hope to catch the Arizona State-UCLA game in Tempe while I'm there and get a firsthand look.
Who would I pick right now? On a personal level I'd root for either Louisville because I like Rick Pitino, Michigan State out of conference pride or Duke because I like Coach K and would want to lend support to my sister-in-law who loves her Dookies here in Terrapin country. And family members back in Wisconsin will pull for Marquette, being among that strange element that tries to take both sides of the Badgers-Golden Eagles rivalry. But at the start of the season I shared the consensus view that North Carolina was the team to beat. They don't stand head-and-shoulders above the rest anymore, but they are the most complete team out there, and it's who I'd give a slight edge to right now.