Big Ten Country

Letter of Intent Day

The recruiting hauls were basically finished up yesterday and the national rankings are out. I use these rankings with caution, as I'm skeptical that anyone can tell the difference between the #50 wide receiver nationally compared to the one ranked 75th. And that doesn't even factor in questions like who will fit who's system, who will mature physically and which ones will adjust to college life and perhaps having to get knocked around a bit on the field for the first time in their careers.

But general trends can be gleaned from this data. When Ron Zook came to Illinois he began to make a splash in the recruiting rankings. Pretty soon he was splashing down in the Rose Bowl. So while caution is good, outright dismisal isn't. Here's a few thoughts:

--Minnesota is the new Illinois. Rick Brewster landed a Top 25 class, ranking higher then rival Wisconsin and significantly higher then Penn State. I have been harshly critical of the Minnesota administration for firing Glen Mason and then not winning a single conference game this past year. Nothing Brewster does will ever change that fact, but the strong recruiting move he's making suggests that Minny may not be confined to the basement forever.

--Penn State has to get something settled with Joe Paterno. Either extend his contract or put a succession plan in place and make it public. The Nittany Lions were a non-factor in the rankings this year, inexcusable for a school in the heart of football-mad Pennsylvania and with access to similiar riches in Ohio and New Jersey on either side. It isn't Joe Pa's age that's driving this--he was pulling in highly ranked classes as recently as a couple years ago, but without a contract beyond this season no one really knows what's happening in State College. Can't blame the kids for going elsewhere.

--Notre Dame continues to get highly rated classes with Charlie Weis, ranking #2 behind only Alabama this year. The Irish had expected '07 to be a rough year, though admittedly no one ever dreamed it would get as ugly as it got. But the talent is coming in, and a lot of it on defense. Help is on the way in South Bend.

--And Michigan & Ohio State continue to lead the class in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes didn't hit the top five as they have done recently, but both teams produced Top 10 classes. Rich Rodriguez in particular, needs system-fitting talent as he revamps the Wolverine offense.

--Highly regarded quarterback Terrelle Pryor out of Jeanette, PA was the rare top prospect not to make up his mind and can sign somewhere this spring. Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are all considered in the running for his services.

ESPN.com has a brief note on each team's class at this link.

Bowls & Buckets

Bowl projections are updated on the left hand side. The updated projections deal with the major bowls and the Capital One/Outback games. The second-tier scenario has not changed since the post right below this.

It was a good weekend for Ohio State. The Buckeyes watched LSU fall to Arkansas, and the OSU championship scenario is now simple--if either West Virginia or Missouri lose, Jim Tressel's team is next in line to fill a berth in the national championship game. WVA is home against Pitt, while Missouri has a tough Big 12 championship showdown with Oklahoma on Saturday night.

The weekend wasn't quite as kind to Illinois' BCS chances. Hawaii beat Boise State and got respect from the pollsters in doing so. The Rainbows moved up to #12 in the BCS rankings, exactly where they needed to get to assure themselves an automatic bid. It appears Hawaii will have to lose outright to Washington next weekend to lose its BCS bid, and that it makes it unlikely Illinois can get in. With four available spots (after the six automatics to the major conferences after doled out), we can lock in the Big 12 and SEC for one spot. The Pac-10 will without question grab a third, so long as USC & Arizona State both win (and even if they don't, the Pac-10 might still get an at-large). That leaves Illinois and Hawaii to fight over the last spot, and Saturday's results weren't good for Ron Zook & Co.

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In the midst of the bowl talk, it's also time to talk a little buckets. College basketball has been slowly warming up these past couple weeks, and it's about time to kick into high gear on the hardwood. The Big Ten-ACC Challenge begins tonight, with Iowa hosting Wake Forest. The Big Ten traditionally gets taken to the cleaners in this event, having lost the previous eight challenges. Maybe the ninth time's the charm. It better be, albeit for personal reasons--with this writer moving to the Baltimore area in less then a month, I need something to hang my hat on.

This year's challenge is higlhlighted by Wisconsin's trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday night, the Illinois-Maryland battle in my future backyard on Wednesday, followed by Carolina-Ohio State that same night. Other then tonight's opener, all the games are on Tuesday and Wednesday and they fill the TV slots with doubleheaders for both ESPN & ESPN2 on both nights. 

The At-Large Landscape

Bowl projections are updated and at the link on the lefthand side. The burning issue in the Big Ten is whether Ohio State can still get an at-large bid if they falter in Ann Arbor. My projection shows them making it, but I wanted to give this issue a little deeper treatment then is possible on the projections page, which are based on my own picks for who's going to win out the rest of the way.

In looking at the race for the four at-large bids to major bowls, one important fact to remember is this--a conference cannot put more then two teams in the BCS, including its champion. The Big Ten was hurt by this last year, when 11-1 Wisconsin was denied a bid. The league will be helped by the rule this time around. So in looking at all the teams that are in the mix for bids, it's helpful to consider that it's sort of like guessing who's going to win a presidential election--the national polls are interesting and maybe even revealing, but the money's in the state-by-state races. Translated into BCS terms, it means that four highly ranked Big 12 teams aren't that relevant. What matters is which four conferences are going to win the bids.

Below is a look at each conference's landscape, as well as the mid-major situation. Other then Michigan and Minnesota, every other school in the Big Ten has a football stake in seeing Ohio State make it in as an at-large (and they all have a financial stake). Two bids to the BCS open up a spot in the New Year's Day games, and further open up a spot down the ladder as the league fulfills its committments. With an astonishing ten teams already bowl-eligible, the question's never been more relevant. So without further adieu, here we go:

Big 12: This conference is a lock for an at-large. OU, Kansas and Missouri are all in the top five. Texas isn't far behind. It's just a question of settling on who. Concede one spot here.

Pac-10: Not quite as much of a lock, but still in very good shape. Between Oregon, Arizona State and USC, two of them should get in. It's best to be safe and concede another spot here.

Big East: West Virginia will win the conference if it beats Cincinnati and UConn the next two weeks. The odds are very good that will happen, and neither the Bearcats or Huskies are a threat to even be eligible for the BCS (you need to be ranked in the top 14 of the final standings) in that scenario. Where it gets interesting is if WVA loses one game and ends up in the at-large pool. They're 10-2 and they travel well. I suspect Ohio State still gets picked ahead of them, but the safest thing is to just see the Mountaineers win out.

ACC: This league is hurting in the at-large race. All their contenders already have two losses. Furthermore, the conference race boils down to a de facto semifinal tournament. BC plays Clemson on Saturday for one division crown. Virginia Tech plays Virginia the following week for the other. So any team that doesn't win the conference is guaranteed to lose one more game. No way do any of them go over OSU.

SEC: This one's the most interesting. Right now, Georgia is sitting on 8-2, while a three-loss Tennessee team controls its destiny for the East title and the right to play LSU in the league championship game. If the Bulldogs win their last two (Kentucky at home, Ga Tech on the road) and don't win the division, they'll be incredibly attractive. But if Tennessee loses a game, and then the Dawgs falter to LSU, the at-large spot suffers. Teams become less attractive to bowls when they lose a conference championship game. The fans are a little down--and unlike Ohio State, there's not as much recovery time, since league title games aren't played until December. More important, a lot of the fan base travels to the championship game and can't pony up the cash for a second trip.

That's the long explanation for why Ohio State and Big Ten fans generally should root for either Georgia to lose one of its last two, or for Tennessee to lose and thus force the Bulldogs into a matchup with LSU. And it's also imperative that LSU win the conference title game, regardless of why they play. The Tigers' pedigree is strong enough to overcome a loss and still get an at-large pick.

Mid-Majors: Hawaii is undefeated, but are currently ranked #16 in the BCS. They need to move up two more spots to get eligible. And if they move up four more spots to #12 they are guaranteed a bid. They can also get in one other way--if they are ranked ahead of one of the champions of the six major conferences. Right now, the Rainbows are ranked five spots ahead of Michigan.

Therefore, it keeps life easier in the Big Ten for either Hawaii to lose, or at least not win impressively enough to move up in the polls. And since this entire scenario is built around a Michigan win on Saturday, they need the Wolverines to close the gap and pass UH in the final standings.

Conclusion
This boils down to a race for two spots, after we concede the Big 12 & Pac-10 their bids. If you go conference-by-conference, you have to think Ohio State looks in pretty good shape to still get picked at 10-2. But it's not a lock, and hopefully the above breakdown helps shed some light on the landscpae.

Debating The Bye Week

Joe Paterno is standing firm in his positon in favor of a bye week in the conference schedule, reports Jeff Rice of Centre Daily. Since the addition of the 12th game, the Big Ten has remained committed to completing the season prior to Thanksgiving, and that has meant the bye week had to be junked. Paterno argues it's unreasonable to ask college kids to maintain the rigorous athletic and academic life of big-time football without a chance to catch their breath.

This issue has been an evolutionary one for me. I like the conference tradition of finishing the season the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. That's the best time for rivalry games, with so many other grudge matches going on throughout the country. And by the time Thanksgiving weekend itself comes around, there's pro football, a smattering of remaining college games, a few early college basketball tournaments...and oh yes, spending time with the family. While nothing would overshadow Michigan-Ohio State, I do fear that games like Minnesota-Iowa or Illinois-Northwestern might suffer from the glut.

I would have solved the problem by never adding the 12th game to begin with. But it's here now, and the money it produces means it won't go away. And after initial resistance, I've come to the conclusion that Paterno is right--maintaining the great tradition of the third weekend in November is an honorable goal, but taking away the one week off the players get during the fall semester is too high a price to pay to keep it.

Columbus & Chicago Pods

Two Big Ten cities will host NCAA games this weekend. Columbus and Chicago are the site of first and second round games. Each city will have eight teams arrive. They will come in pods of four apiece. For those not familiar with the pod system, the way things used to work was that the eight teams would be entirely one half of a certain regional (Midwest in this case), and the survivors would be playing each other in the Sweet 16 the next weekend. But the national nature of the tournament meant that a lot of teams the locals didn't necessarily care about were in town. It also reduced the odds that a school would be in traveling distance of its fans. So the NCAA made a wise adjustment. Each "sub-regional" of four teams is sent to the site best suited for it. So the eight teams that appear at tournament venues may (and usually do) come from two separate regionals. Hence, you have games in the South region being played in Columbus, and West regional action in Chicago. The regional's geography are defined by where next weekend's games are played, not this weekend. I hope I made sense of that for anyone who might be mystified

But here's what's on tap for the folks in Columbus and Chicago. Ohio State was ineligible to stay home. While the NCAA wants fan interest, there is a rule barring teams from actually playing on their home floor. So the Buckeyes are down the road in Lexington. But OSU fans can still have great interest in the doings in their own backyard. The South sub-regional that the Buckeyes will face in the Sweet 16 has been sent here. #4 seed Virginia will play Albany, and fifth-seeded Tennessee faces Long Beach State. The winner of this four-team "pod" will play the winner of the Buckeye pod next weekend in New Orleans.

For the night action in Columbus, mid-major power Southern Illinois will play Holy Cross, while Bruce Weber brings his troops in for a game against fifth-seeded Virginia Tech. These games are in the West regional, with a spot in San Jose and probable date with top seed Kansas at stake. Illinois is seeded twelfth in their region. As Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun Times notes, that's been a good spot to be in recent years.

Wisconsin's fans won't have to travel far to see the Badgers in action. UW is going to Chicago. They play Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, the #15 seed in the Midwest. UNLV-Georgia Tech is the other game in this pod, and upset talk is already brewing. In yesterday's post, I picked Vegas to advance out of the Windy City. Media types are talking up Georgia Tech as a dangerous #10 seed. Either way, Sunday's second-round game is shaping up as a good one. Wisconsin fans will have to make sure they have radio or Internet access on Friday, as these games will be during the heart of the workday. The survivor goes to St. Louis, where they will be opposite defending national champ and #1 seed Florida, a possible regional final opponent.

The night games in Chicago feature some power programs, three of whom have won national championships in the post-Wooden era. Kansas (1988 titilist) will play the winner of the play-in game. The Jayhawks are the top seed in the West this season and led by former Illinois coach Bill Self, who returns home. Self is current holder of the title of best coach never to reach the Final Four. He came up one win short at Illinois (2001) and before that at Tulsa (2000). The blog Rock Chalk Jayhawk gives a good background on the players that Self will try and ride to Atlanta.

Kansas will play the winner of Kentucky-Villanova on Sunday. Though Tubby Smith won a national title in 1998, and is one of the game's most respected coaches, he has not been back to the showcase event since. As a #8 seed that string's not likely to break this year. There has been talk of his being forced out in Lexington, a notion I find ridiculous. His AD says he's safe, but failure to at least win this first-round game will have the wolves howling again. The blog A Sea of Blue gives more insight into the coaching controversy down in the Bluegrass State.

That's what's on tap for the folks in Chicago and Columbus this weekend.  No Big Ten sites host the tournament beyond this, so these games will wrap up college hoops in our own backyard this weekend.

A Computer Really Does Do This

For years I've laughed when the NCAA insists that its matchups come straight out of the computer with no human input. Too many juicy, marquee games with intriguing storylines popped up in the first or second round to believe that a computer was behind it. The Marquette-Michigan State game this year is an example, with former Spartan assistant Tom Crean at the helm in Milwaukee. But the committee had the dream matchup right in its paws last night, and they let it slip away. Indiana came up a #7 seed. Texas Tech came up a #10 seed. But they switched them to separate regionals. Either a computer really does do this process, or the NCAA wasn't quite ready to stir the pot that thoroughly.

It was a good day for the conference, as they picked up six bids. For all the talk about the league being down, the Big Ten did come in third in conference RPI. I was surprised at how high Purdue got up (#9) and how close Illinois got to slipping out (#12), especially after the Illini advanced to the semifinals this past weekend. But Bruce Weber's team isn't complaining. Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Illini are just relieved to be in, and looking forward to playing Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, Ken Thompson at Boiler Station rubs his team's bid in the face of the naysaying pundits.

The geographic sense of the committee eludes me. I'm not sure why you put Florida in the Midwest, while sticking Ohio State in the South. I'm looking over the brackets and sites, and can't see a logical reason for this flip-flop. But it really doesn't matter. OSU is upset over missing the top overall seed, but if there's anything less relevant to tourney success then being #1 seed in a region, it is being the bullet overall. The Buckeyes got a very favorable draw. Neither BYU or Xavier look like an upset candidate in round two. And Tennessee or Virginia is all that stands in their way of the regional final. Once there, OSU will only have to get past either Memphis (soft from dining on C-USA pastry), Texas A&M (not battle-tested) or Louisville (great coach, but doubtful if they have the horses). The alleged dissing by the committee will only ensure Thad Matta needs no extra help in motivating his kids to keep their run going.

Wisconsin got the highest seed in school history. I do think UW is a serious candidate for an upset though. They are looking at a second-round game with UNLV. I saw the Rebs back in December when they played Texas Tech, and though it's been a while, they were a very good team. And the Badgers are without Brian Butch. Of teams seeded 1 or 2, I see Wisconsin as the most vulnerable to saying a quick goodbye this coming weekend.

I share the ESPN/CBS consensus that Michigan State has a very interesting draw. The matchup with Marquette in the first round is a juicy one. Either team will then give North Carolina a stern test in round two. Drew Sharp of The Detroit Free Press writes of how the success of this year's Spartan team is even more a testament to Tom Izzo's program then any of his Final Four runs.

Indiana may not have gotten a game with its former coach, but they did get a rematch with Gonzaga, the team that ousted them in the second round last year. If they win, the Hoosiers play UCLA, the team they beat to go the Final Four back in 1992.

And Coach Knight himself delivered again. After a losing season in 2006, the Red Raiders bounced back and gave the old master his record 28th NCAA bid. Over at the blog Double T Nation, they look forward to the matchup with Boston College and breathe a sigh of relief that the team hung on to get the bid.

Wisconsin's Got The Most At Stake

Tip time in the United Center is just a few hours away as this post goes online. Confused men throughout the ages have asked themselves the question "What's it all about?" The same question arises here--no, not about the meaning of life or whether eternity exists. But what does the conference tournament really mean, in the bigger scope of things? Is it just an amusing annoyance between the drawn-out intensity of the conference race and the jam-packed passion of March Madness? Or does it have some deeper meaning intrinsic to itself? Like so many other things, that's a question each team must decide for itself, in the depths of its own collective heart. A column by Rick Gano in The Columbus Dispatch  contemplates that very question (although in fairness to Gano, he doesn't get quite as melodramatic about it as I just did).

Over the next two days, there's no doubt it's Michigan, Purdue and Iowa that have the most at stake, and you might be able to throw Illinois and Michigan State into that group. The Wolverines have to win two games, including a potential matchup with Ohio State tomorrow. The Boilermakers probably need to beat Iowa in the quarters. The Hawkeyes need to win Friday and Saturday just to get to the argument stage. I suspect the Illini and Spartans are fine, so long as they don't go in the tank today against the bottom-feeders, but you always want to eliminate any possible reason for NCAA rejection. Both schools could do so by advancing at least to the semi-finals.

But that's just about advancing in the tournament. What about actually winning it and cutting the nets down late Sunday afternoon? Again, the first part of the answer is obvious. Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State have to do it if they want to make a Cinderella NCAA run. But given the chances of that are roughly on a par with Joe Paterno going to the run-and-shoot, who else needs to win? I would argue Wisconsin is the team with the most at stake.

The Badgers have had an extraordinary season, the best in their history. But there's no championship hardware to show for it. Ohio State has a trophy in its possession. Teams like Indiana have the same thing at stake Wisconsin does, but none have had the kind of years that would make ending without some type of banner to hang a major letdown. The Badgers have. They've also been slumping of late, and have a dangerous game with Michigan State looming tomorrow. I realize the big prizes of Final Four trips and a national championships still await. But I don't think UW would want to see their only hope of some hardware rest on the twists and turns of NCAA regional play. Winning a championship this weekend would not be the greatest triumph that exists, but it would be something--and would ensure that Bo Ryan's program doesn't go home empty-handed.

This year's tournament is the last time it will be in Chicago, at least for a few years. The Big Ten is moving the event to Indianapolis. The Windy City has a special place in the hearts of Midwesterners, even for those of us native Wisconsinites who can find them overbearing at times. It's the city at heart of Big Ten Country, and it seemed right that this was where the conference came to show off its wares each March. Jim O'Donnell of The Chicago Sun Times takes a look back.

See everybody back here in Monday once it's all played out. By then we'll have NCAA brackets to parse. The fun is just starting.

Bubble Talks

As we get set to tip off in the Windy City tomorrow, here's a brief overview of the most basic elements of each bubble team's tournament resume, their overall W-L record and RPI power rating. I have included a short summation of the situation in other conferences. These are not my predictions--I generally don't agree with the methodology used by the Selection Committee,namely the lack of weight put on record within the conference, and the failure to more sharply limit the number of bids per league. And the committee does take into account more factors then are listed here--record against the Top 50, record in the last ten games, etc. The information below is meant simply to shed a little bit of light on what can be a confusing and stress-filled time of year if you root for a bubble team.

Three teams from the Big Ten are absolute locks. Ohio State at 27-3 (RPI--2), Wisconsin (27-4, 4) and Indiana 20-9 (24). The RPI numbers shine favorably on Michigan State. Even though the Spartans are  the #7 seed, they have a #22 power rating. Doubtless they are helped by a tough schedule, which included having to play both the Buckeyes and Badgers twice in the league rotation. Illinois (21-10) has a comfortable rating of #35, and as long as they beat Penn State on Thursday that shouldn't drop too much. Purdue is 20-10, (#45), Iowa is at 17-13 (#83) and Michigan is 20-11 (#52).

After the automatic bids to conference tourney winners are given out, there are 34 at-large bids available. I assume readers are aware of the most basic rule of league tournament rooting--pull for the teams already on the "lock list" to win their events, and avoid pushing them into the at-large field.

In the summation below, I have defined lock much more strictly then is the case with most media discussion, and I would be shocked if some of the teams I have on my bubble list don't get in, and with decent seeding to boot. But there's always one or two teams like this that get left out each year and send the nation reeling in shock. If you're even a remote candidate to be one of those teams then...well, you're not a lock.

ACC
Locks--North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Duke

Virginia--20-9 (#40). Hard to believe the co-champ has a power rating this low, but there it is.
Georgia Tech--20-10 (#34)
Florida State--19-11 (#48)
Clemson--21-9 (#36)

SEC
Locks--Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky

Vanderbilt--20-10 (#37)
Alabama--20-10 (#44)
Arkansas--18-12 (#49)
Ole Miss--19-11 (#61)
Georgia--17-12 (#65)
Mississippi State 16-12 (#66)

Pac-10
Locks--UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona
Lest you wonder about the Arizona classification, the 'Cats are 20-9 and #13 in the RPI.

USC--21-10 (#53)
Stanford--18-11 (#56)
Washington--18-12 (#75)

Big East
Locks--Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova

This is an upside down league. 'Nova is at #18 in the power ratings, while you see below that Louisville and Syracuse aren't as shiny on the computers as one might have expected. I'd be shocked if the Cards in particular don't make it, but I'm not classifying anyone a lock who's below #40.

Louisville--22-8 (#41)
Syracuse--21-9 (#50)
West Virginia--22-8 (#57)
DePaul--18-12 (#64)
Providence--18-10 (#70_

Big 12
Locks--Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Kansas State 21-19 (#59)
Texas Tech 20-11 (#42)
Missouri 18-11 (#78)
Oklahoma State 20-11 (#58)

Mountain West
Locks--BYU, UNLV, Air Force

San Diego State 21-9 (#54)

Colonial
Virginia Commonwealth has won automatic bid

Old Dominion--24-7 (#39)
Drexel--23-7 (#46)
Hofstra--22-8 (#71)

Looking elsewhere, Conference USA is one to keep an eye on. Memphis is the only team that can make the tournament as an at-large. Of the remaininig teams, Houston is the only one with an RPI in the Top 100 (95th) and they're 16-14. Pull for the Tigers to win the league tourney.

The main thing that jumps out from these numbers is the incredible power of the ACC. All nine teams on the board look to have just cause to make the field. The committee says there is no limit per conference, de facto or de jure, and I'm inclined to take their word for it. The bottom teams in that group (Georgia Tech, Clemson) all closed with key wins in the last week, so there's more working for an ACC sweep on Sunday.

I'm also still a little nervous about Coach Knight's chances of getting in. The Red Raiders resume is good, but they need to beat Colorado on Thursday. I think for the same reason Illinois needs a win over Penn State--it's not so much that either contender needs the win, but they cannot afford to have a loss to the last place team in their league going into Selection Sunday.  

Tournament Schedule

The Big Ten Tournament tips off on Thursday afternoon in Chicago. Here is the schedule and TV listings. Over the next couple days, Big Ten Country will be commenting on what's at stake for different schools, both in terms of pride as well as NCAA hopes. I will also be posting information on the resumes of bubble schools in other conferences, so fans in places like Ann Arbor and Champaign have something to work on by way of comparison.

Starting times listed are EST.

Thursday
ESPN2 will televise all these games:

Michigan (8) vs. Minnesota (9) Noon
Michigan State (7) vs. Northwestern (10) 2:30
Illinois (6) vs. Penn State (11) 5:05

Friday
ESPN will televise the early games. Check local listings for telecasts of the late matchups.

Ohio State (1) vs. Mich/Minn Noon
Iowa (4) vs. Purdue (5)   2:30
(Break)
Wisconsin (2) vs. MSU/N'Western  6:40
Indiana (3) vs. Illinois/Penn State   9:10

Saturday
CBS will televise the semifinals and final.

1:40--Semifinal on Ohio State's side of the draw
4:05--Semifinal on Wisconsin's side of the draw

Sunday
3:30--Championship game.

The conference tournament is a unique part of the American sports landscape. In no other setting do you get to see everything a conference or division has to offer all put on display for a single weekend. I don't think winning it outstrips the meaning of the regular season championship, and regardless of what happens this weekend I see Ohio State as the only team that will merit the title of 2007 Conference Champions. But winning this event is still a nice prize to shoot for, even if NCAA Tournament hopes weren't hanging in the balance. Everybody enjoy!

Football Recruiting News

ESPN.com has published a commit list, of the high school football players who've given verbal committments for next season. Unless you're a prep football junkie a lot of the names won't mean anything, but this list does provide a grade for each player based on a 1-100 scale. The grade was put together by Scouts Inc. So while my misgivings about the feasiblity of these grades that I expressed below remains, we can at least say that these were put together by knowledeable football men and they'll be as accurate as any system rating high school seniors playing completely different competition can be.

The commit list requires a subscription to ESPN Insider, so for those of you not subscribed I'll summarize what's there. A ranking of 80 or higher looks to be the elite level. There's only 13 such players on the entire Big Ten list, so it seems safe to guess that these are the difference makers. Michigan got four of them, and Illinois grabbed three. If we take a step further down and look at who had success signing players graded 75 or higher, some patterns emerge. The Wolverines would still have the top class using these admittedly crude analytical parameters. Illinois is still strong, but Penn State grabbed ten guys in the high 70s. Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota all got one elite prospect (80+) and a handful of high 70s. Most surprising is that Ohio State's class is on a level with these three schools, trailing Penn State and way behind Michigan. Michigan State, Northwestern and Purdue were the only ones not to sign at least one eighty-plus prospect (Michigan and Illinois were the only ones to sign multiple).

Illinois' class is the main news here. Mark Schlabach at ESPN.com assesses the charge made against Ron Zook that he can recruit, but not coach. Zook argues that he was not allowed to stay at Florida and coach the players he recruited--the same ones who won the national title. I'm not down on Zook or anything, but I don't buy this argument. He did not inherit a cupboard that was bare in Gainesville. In replacing Steve Spurrier, he assumed command from the man that only Bear Bryant can rival in SEC history. He certainly did not need four years in which to win. Giving him a full four years to win in Champaign is only fair, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking his track record is that of an elite coach who had the carpet ripped out from under him before he won it all down south.