Big Ten Country

Must-Win Road Tests

The noon EST time slot on Saturday features three teams facing must-win games if they're going to keep themselves in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl game. Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois all need to get W's in road tilts. In the case of the former two teams, they can theoretically afford to lose these games and still bounce back. However, practically speaking, a loss in either case would signal alarm bells about their ability to win out the rest of the way. And Illinois put itself up against a wall when they lost at home to the Gophers two weeks ago, and unless they plan on beating Ohio State a second straight year, they can't afford to be losing in other spots.

Northwestern goes to Indiana. The one thing certain in what's been a chaotic year amongst the eight teams situated between the elites and the basement is that IU's holding down the #11 hole. Terry Hutchens of The Indianapolis Star reports that the Hoosier faithful is none too optimistic about even winning a single Big Ten game. In the meantime, the Wildcats are rolling along at 6-1 and getting good offensive balance between C.J. Bacher at quarterback and Tyrrell Sutton in the backfield. The latter has not had the kind of superstar season I was watching for, but he's still been pretty good and the 'Cats have more then filled in around him.

Minnesota travels to Purdue. This is a test game for the Gophs. They are coming off a bye week and the Boilermakers look ready to unravel after being routed by Northwestern last week. But keep in mind that Rick Brewster's team has been far from dominant. They built their early season record on a soft schedule, struggled to get past Indiana at home and beat Illinois primarily on the strength of turnovers. Whether they can maintain their focus and come up with a big win on the road against a very beatable team will be a key test of how fast they are progressing. Kent Youngblood of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune opines that the offensive line is now starting to stabilize, after injuries and lineup changes. A win here would signal that Brewster has the team back to its Mason-era level where they were a team that might not have been championship-level, but was one no contender wanted to mess with.

Illinois goes north to Wisconsin. The Badger defense is going to have to play vastly better then they have for the past two weeks and realistically need their best game of the season. With the quarterback position in flux and the running game far from its customary dominant self, UW has no hope of winning a scoring race with Juice Williams' offense. If the Illini don't beat themselves, I can't see the Badgers slowing them down sufficiently in this ESPN2 telecast. Herb Gould of The Chicago Sun-Times declares that receiver Aurelious Benn has been even better in his encore performance.

October 4 Game Summaries

Ohio State 20 Wisconsin 17
The prime-time battle in Camp Randall was everything it was supposed to be. This was a game as nearly even as you can get. Total yardage was a virtual dead heat, and neither team had an appreciable edge running or passing. Third down conversions were about 50 percent each way. And if Wisconsin would have had a few more seconds at the end of the first half to try another play or two after getting to the 3-yard line, they might have a touchdown instead of a field goal and had the margin of victory. The Badgers can also point to two OSU fumbles on the final game-winning drive that bounced safely back into Buckeye hands.

But it's Ohio State who got out of this one with a win because they had more playmakers. Terrell Pryor's final numbers aren't spectacular, but they don't reflect the way his speed changed the game, and the way he came through at every key point when the Bucks had to move the ball. A long touchdown drive just after UW had taken the lead with six minutes left answered any questions as to whether he was ready for high-pressure situations. And Chris Wells rushed for 168 yards on 22 carries and was another game-changing player that the tandem of P.J. Hill and John Clay wasn't for UW. Though the latter two played well, neither has Wells' explosiveness. Thus, Ohio State is on track in the Big Ten and hoping for a rejuvenation of national title hopes, while Wisconsin has to try and recover and see if they can play their way back into the New Year's Day bowl picture. Bob Hunter of The Columbus Dispatch writes about how OSU exorcised some demons in Madison with their winning drive.

Penn State 20 Purdue 6
It wasn't the kind of win that will reverberate through the college football establishment when they read through the scores. But it was exactly the kind of performance Penn State needed. They were efficient on offense, getting strong games from both Darryl Clark and Evan Royster. Most important, their defense stood up and shut down Purdue. The Lions' road tests get stricter the next two weeks in Madison and Columbus. But PSU fans can enter those games knowing they have a complete team. Jeff Rice of The Centre Daily Times says the D knows how to defend the Boilermaker spread.

Illinois 45 Michigan 20
Those of us who said Michigan's win over Wisconsin was no turning point, but the product of a Badger collapse were vindicated in the last three quarters on Saturday. The Illini spotted the Wolverines a 14-3 lead and then just exploded in UM's face. Juice Williams lit up the Michigan defense for 431 all-purpose yards. Even though Steven Threet had his most productive game at quarterback, he wasn't going to keep up with this onslaught.

Between this game and a near-miss at Penn State, Illinois has put itself back on the agenda as a player in the race for the January 1 bowl invites. As for Michigan, there is no excuse for the defensive performance. This is a veteran defense that is not learning a new system. This was the kind of game they were reasonably expected to carry the load in, and it's not happening. They've given up 60 points in two Big Ten games. Rich Rodriguez is right when he says that this is ridiculous.

Michigan State 16 Iowa 13
The Javon Ringer Express was slowed down in East Lansing. 91 yards on 25 carries isn't exactly shabby, but he was upstaged by Iowa's Shon Greene, who rushed for 157. MSU was still able to get out to a 16-3 lead and then hold on. It wasn't a statement win, but it kept the Spartans moving forward. It wasn't a bad loss, but it keeps the Hawkeyes struggling. Andy Hamilton of The Iowa Press-Citizen opines that the Hawks were their own worst enemy.

Minnesota 16 Indiana 7
Neither team had any running game to speak of, and both quarterbacks played a good game. But Gopher QB Adam Weber had Eric Decker to throw to and that was the difference. The Minnesota wide reciever hauled in 13 catches for 190 yards, and his team was able to get three second-half field goals to break up a 7-7 tie at intermission. It's been a long time coming, but more then two years after Glen Mason's firing, Minnesota has again won a conference game. Rachel Blount of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune gives credit to Decker and his toughness.

Notre Dame 28 Stanford 21
After each of the last three Notre Dame wins, I've had the same reaction. Nice win, but nothing to get too excited about. And taken individually, that's true. Michigan, Purdue and Stanford are nothing to get worked up about, especially given they were all in South Bend. But taken collectively, it's a mark of how ND is progressing. No one more so then Jimmy Clausen, who threw for 347 yards in a career-best day. The Irish will have to improve their running game as the schedule gets tougher, but at 4-1, there's again reason for hope under the Dome.

Key Undercard Games

Three of Saturday's undercard games will have big implications for teams pushing to make a bowl game. For Michigan State & Notre Dame, these are part of a dwindling number of very winnable home games. For Minnesota, it's their best chance to get back on the Big Ten scoreboard with a win.

Iowa goes to Michigan State (Noon EST, BTN).The natives are getting restless  in Iowa, as Kirk Ferentz redirected criticism of his coordinators and took the blame himself. The Hawkeyes have their back to the wall after losing at home to Northwestern, right on the heels of a loss at Pitt. The Michigan State defense showed obvious vulnerablilty last week against Indiana, and the Hawks should be able to move the ball. But the question will be whether they can hold on to it. It was five turnovers that doomed them a week ago, and the Spartan offense is more able then Northwestern's when it comes to making them pay. Javon Ringer's profile is rising nationally and Brian Hoyer will look to build off a strong performance last week in Bloomington.

MSU also needs this game badly. At 4-1, their bowl hopes aren't in jeopardy, but after this game and a road trip to Northwestern next week, Mark Dantonio's squad begins a brutal closing stretch that starts with Ohio State on October 18. They play every contender in the conference, and as such, they need to be 6-1 when the process starts. After last year's overtime loss against Iowa, the Spartans feel as though they have unfinished business, per this report from Shannon Shelton of The Detroit Free Press.

Indiana goes to Minnesota(Noon EST, BTN). The Hoosiers haven't won since starting the season with victories over Western Kentucky and Murray State. Apparently, they plan to continue the quarterback alternation scheme of a week ago where Ben Chappell shared time with Kellen Lewis. I originally thought that was due to a Lewis injury, but apparently not. I think this is a mistake. Lewis is one of the league's most dynamic players and IU needs to put the ball in his hands. As for the Gophs, they badly need this win. If they want to get to a winning season, they must win at least two of three from home games with IU, Northwestern and Iowa and this will be the easiest one on the slate. Minnesota hasn't so much as won a single Big Ten game since showing Glen Mason the door. They should get this one. Rick Brewster tells The Minneapolis Star-Tribune that he wants to see more big plays from his team.

Notre Dame hosts Stanford (2:30 EST, NBC). The Irish have an opportunity to move to 4-1 and keep a positive feeling around the program. This game and a November matchup with Syracuse are the only home dates that ND can really circle and say they should roll to victory. There are winnable road games (notably Washington), but I don't think the Irish are strong enough yet that any road trip can be quickly counted in the win column. Stanford has beaten Oregon State, a win that looks very impressive in light of what happened last Thursday in Corvallis. Although I agree with the conventional wisdom that sees that as more an indictment of USC's weekly focus then anything about Oregon State. And if we can't read too much positive about the Beavers, we are limited in how much we can take positively from the Cardinals beating them. Bottom line: Charlie Weis must have this win.

Football Preview: Minnesota

Last year marked the beginning of the post-Glenn Mason era, an audacious experiement in which a generally unaccomplished program fires a reasonably successful head coach, thinking that not only are they capable of more, but the aforementioned winning coach can't get them there. Year One of the grand plan was an absolute disaster. Minnesota went from a consistent bowl team to 0-8 in conference play.

The defense was the worst in the nation.New coordinator Ted Roof has been charged with the task of making this unit competitive. Perhaps better days will be around the corner but with only four returning starters it won't be this year. The Gophers are hoping that a healthy William VanDeSteeg on the end will bring an upgrade to the pass rush.

Offensively, Rick Brewster's team is similarly rebuilding, but there are a few more tools on hand. Sophomore quarterback Adam Weber got a year of starting under his belt in 2007. While he threw 19 , that is to be expected from a freshman signal-caller with no real help to fall back on. And Weber also showed signs of real promise. He might get some relief from an improved running game. With three offensive line starters back, including the entire left side, along with sophomore returnee Duane Bennett running behind them, the Gophers might start the process of rejuvenating the running game that was once the pride of the program under Mason.

As hard as I've been on Minnesota and Brewster since Mason's firing, it does need to be noted that their recruiting classes are winning rave reviews. With only four seniors in the starting lineup and six of Brewster's recruits already slated to start, perhaps better days are ahead. But Minnesota's paying a pretty heavy price just to get back to where they were when this whole process started.

Season Recaps: Northwestern & Minnesota

Back from my honeymoon, it's time to offer congratulations to Kansas & Bill Self. I'm not sure how Illinois fans feel about their former coach, but I was happy to see Self get the brass ring a week ago tonight.

Now that we're officially into offseason for the two sports Big Ten Country covers, it's time to start brief recaps of what each school did in football & men's basketball the past year. Today, we look at Northwestern & Minnesota.

Northwestern
The Wildcats had the least successful year of any school when you look at both sports combined, but they saw some heartening improvement on the gridiron last fall. Pat Fitzgerald led his team to a 6-6 record, and had them in the bowl conversation all the way to a season-ending loss against Illinois. The highlight of the 'Cats year was a crazy two-week stretch in October. They won back-to-back overtime shootouts, first knocking off Michigan State in East Lansing (48-41), then winning a wild 2-OT game at home against Minnesota (49-48). The win over the Spartans, who would be surging down the stretch, was the top sports moment of the year for NU fans, and the .500 record gives hope that Fitzgerald has the program recovering from the tragic death of Randy Walker.

Basketball didn't fare quite as well. Northwestern won just one conference game and positive memories of the season have to be built on the emergence of quality freshman Michael Thompson as a possible difference-maker in years to come.

Minnesota
Minnesota AD Joel Matsui staked the future of the football program on firing Glen Mason, on the grounds that going to minor bowl games was no longer good enough. Minnesota responded by failing to win a single Big Ten game in the first year of the post-Mason era. UM is getting ready to move into a new stadium in 2009, and Matsui has to be desperately hoping that an unexpectedly strong recruiting class will set the groundwork for better days in the immediate future.

Basketball is much brighter in Minneapolis. Matsui ignored the same mentality that led him to do Mason in, and hired underappreciated Tubby Smith away from Kentucky prior to the season. Smith rewarded him and the Gopher fans with a nice 18-12 year and an NIT bid. The Gophs knocked off future NIT champ Ohio State in March and probably cost the Buckeyes a bid to the NCAA. After some hard years on the hardwood in recent years, things are looking up again.

The NCAA Picture

The Big Ten's NCAA Tournament picture is about as clear-cut as any power conference. Four teams are locks--Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue and Michigan State. Five teams are out--Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois and Northwestern. That leaves only Ohio State and Minnesota who are playing to settle their postseason fate.

Even the drama here isn't super-intense. If the bids went out today there wouldn't be any question at all. The Buckeyes are in and the Gophers are out. But things can still get interesting here, particularly in Columbus. Ohio State's loss to Michigan last Sunday was very damaging, dropping them from #36 to #47 in the RPI. To give those numbers some perspective, let us point out that it dropped them behind teams like Miami (FL), West Virginia, UMass & Baylor, none of whom may be invited to the tourney, much less be considered safe bets. And right on the heels of Ohio State's loss, two shaky bubble teams in the ACC (Wake Forest and Miami) knocked off Duke further tightening the screws for teams in the Buckeyes' position.

Minnesota has been a nice story this year and Big Ten Country has minced no words in singing the praises of Tubby Smith, And whatever else you want to say about the Gophs, they're in a lot closer to the bubble then Smith's old ungrateful employer in Lexington is. But that's still nowhere near close enough. Minnesota is at #109 in the RPI, placing them well behind fringe candidates and not even in the neighborhood of true bubble teams like Maryland, Arizona State and Oklahoma, all of whom stay hovering around the 50 spot.

For the Gophers, they need to start by winning tonight against Michigan and follow it up with a win over Penn State to get themselves back on track. Then they've still got road trips to Indiana and Purdue. In their situation, games like that are no longer problems, but opportunities. Winning big road games is the only way to make the kind of rapid advance they'll need. Minnesota also hosts Ohio State. It's a huge longshot, as they can afford no more then one loss to still have a shot when the conference tournament starts, but at least it's a shot.

Ohio State has home games with Wisconsin (Sunday) and Michigan State still ahead and will be able to play themselves into lock status or let their own bubble burst. For the Buckeyes, the time off since the wipeout in Ann Arbor has been a week to stew.

Purdue Stands The Test

It was showdown week in the Big Ten and Purdue once again stood the test. The Boilermakers jumped out to a big lead against Michigan State and then held off the surging Spartans down the stretch for a 60-54 triumph in front of a delighted Mackey crowd.

Purdue did an outstanding job taking away Tom Izzo's key scorers. While Kalin Lucas had a big night off the Spartan bench, Drew Neitzel was nowhere to be found. Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton were barely more noticeable. Meanwhile, Robbie Hummell was continuing his stretch drive hot streak, pouring in 24 points. And just like at Wisconsin, the Boilers won the turnover battle, forcing 17 MSU miscues. Jeff Washburn of Boiler Station proclaims that the Boiler Express rolls on.

Overall, it was a strange week in the Big Ten. While Purdue defended their home floor, the home teams generally had about as good a midweek as Kelvin Sampson, losing the other four games. And no home loss was more consequential then the one suffered by Sampson's team against Wisconsin. The Badgers got a banked-in trey from Brian Butch to steal a 68-66 win in Assembly Hall.

While Butch's shot got the headlines, the UW big man did not have a good night, getting only four rebounds. Trevon Hughes had his second straight poor game. The lynchpin of the Badger offense has scored just 12 points total in two games against Purdue & Indiana, something that has to give Bo Ryan serious cause for concern as his team tries to make a championship push. On Wednesday they were bailed out by Jason Bohannon who knocked in 18 off the bench.

Indiana got its usual good games from Eric Gordon and D.J. White, though with "only" eight rebounds, White was kept reasonably in check on the glass. Armon Bassett got 12, but beyond that no one contributed. With the loss, IU now trails Purdue by a game in the loss column.

Minnesota's hopes for an NCAA bid took a devastating hit with an 84-60 home loss to previously reeling Illinois. The Illini shot 59 percent from the floor and put four players in double figures. While the inconsistency of Brian Randle and Shawn Pruitt has been the primary cause of the disappointing season, it's worth noting that neither player had much of a resurgence in Wililams Arena. Certainly not Randle, who was as irrelevant in this game as he has been much of the conference schedule. The hero was Trent Meacham, who led the way with 19 points.

As for the Gophers, while they are still 15-8, this is the type of game that knocks a team off the bubble. Minnesota's RPI is very weak as it is (103) and a 24-point loss at home to a bad team in mid-February is going to stick out like a sore thumb. Myron Medcalf of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that freshman guards have played a big role in Tubby's developing turnaround. But this week, they and the rest of the team were all too green.

Rounding out the midweek games, Ohio State rolled past Northwestern in Evanston, overcoming eighteen turnovers. And Michigan surprised Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye behind 15 points from Manny Harris.

Purdue Upsets The Balance

Homecourt advantage reigned in the five conference games played this weekend, nowhere with more consequence then Purdue's win over Wisconsin in Mackey. In a hard-fought defensive battle, the Boilermakers pulled out a 60-56 win that upsets the nice and tidy analysis of which teams belong on which tiers, that was posted last week.

Does the Wisconsin loss remove the Badgers from frontrunner status along with Indiana and Michigan State? After all, both their rivals went into Minnesota and came out victorious. Presented with their first chance to get a road scalp, UW came up short. And this after two home wins over Northwestern and Michigan that failed to impress.

On the other hand, that could be seen as overly harsh. It implies a direct comparison to winning at Minnesota and winning at Purdue that may not not be valid. At 5-1 in the league, perhaps it's just a case of the Boilers making this a four-team hunt.

We'll know more by the end of this week. Wisconsin hosts Indiana in a nationally televised game on Thursday night, that this blogger will be in attendance for. The Badgers then go to Minnesota on Super Bowl Sunday. Take care of their home floor and get a win in an environment where the Hoosiers and Spartans prevailed, and Wisconsin is back to looking good. Which makes Purdue look better in turn. Dave Washburn at Boiler Station says it was a week to remember.

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Though it wasn't a league game and thus pretty inconsequential in the bigger picture, Indiana's loss to UConn at home further complicates assessing the league race. While the Hoosiers don't lose their status over this game, it does at least trigger some warning bells. Despite another 10-rebound game from D.J. White, they were beaten badly on the glass, primarly because Mike White and Lance Stemler were AWOL. Indiana also got a middling game from Eric Gordon. Are the Hoosiers too dependent on their two big stars? We'll see.

Prior to the game, Terry Hutchens at The Indianapolis Star wrote that the easy part of the schedule was over and the testing time would begin. For now, the first results of the exam are an alarming indictment of the Big Ten's ability to compete on the national stage.

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Continuing the pattern of threatening to roil the applecart, Ohio State is gathering steam in the middle. The Buckeyes got 27 points from Jamar Butler and good games from Kosta Koufus and Evan Turner to easily beat Minnesota. Bob Baptist of The Columbus Dispatch opines that the bench deserves a lot of credit, even if they aren't putting up the points. Minnesota just needs to survive this week and the coming Wisconsin game and get to a softer part of the schedule. Keeping his team's confidence up in the face of having so many difficult games early (Michigan State twice, Indiana, Wisconsin, at Ohio State) will be Tubby Smith's key challenge.

Rounding things out, last week I speculated that Northwestern might still make an NIT run. Scratch that. A 70-37 loss to an Illinois program in tatters that drops you to 0-7 in the league means you aren't going anywhere. Iowa rolled over Penn State 64-49, with Jeff Peterson dropping in 19 points off the bench.

Gophers Not Quite There

The early verdict on the Tubby Smith era in Minnesota is that the new coach has the program clearly turning the corner, but is still a little shy of running with the contenders. That verdict was handed down officially on Sunday, when the Gophers missed their second chance at taking out a top conference contender this week. A tough 78-73 loss to Michigan State at home follows up a close to Indiana at home.

Drew Neitzel's 19 points, including five second-half treys did Smith's team in. Myron Medcalf of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune speculates that the absence of injured guard Al Nolen might have made the difference. Depth was undeniably a key part of the Spartan win. With the star forwards on both sides, Raymar Morgan and Dan Coleman, non-factors on offense or the glass, it was bench play in the backcourt that spelled the difference. Tom Izzo got a combined 23 points out of Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen, and Smith had nothing to answer with.

The win signals that Michigan State's horrid loss at Iowa was probably an aberration and not part of a pattern. As to the Gophers, they have to regroup. They showed a lot in the past week, namely that they are getting close to contender status. They will now have to show they can bounce back from disappointment and make an NCAA Tournament run. Smith will get a week to regroup, as his team next plays on Saturday night at Ohio State.

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Speaking of the Buckeyes, the two-time defending conference champs may be starting to come together. Though they lost at Tennessee on Saturday, they were right there with a chance to tie it on their last possession. And this against a team that is the SEC's best and a legitimate Final Four contender. Evan Turner and Othello Hunter each had big games at forward and Thad Matta is slowly shaping this team into one that's starting to look dangerous. Bob Baptist of The Columbus Dispatch writes that the Buckeyes did everything except win.

Purdue continued to impress, churning out a home win over Illinois. The young Boilermakers got 22 points from Keaton Grant. The sophmore guard's second straight big game got him conference player of the week. Purdue forced 22 turnovers, negating a decisive Illini advantage on the boards.

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Wrapping up league play, Indiana and Wisconsin both took care of business at home. The Hoosiers beat Penn State, who are still without Geary Claxton. The only downside was that D.J. White's string of five straight double-doubles came to an end, as he "only" registered seven rebounds to go with his 22 points. And the Badgers got 21 points from Marcus Landry, enabling them to overcome a lack of production from Trevon Hughes and Brian Butch against Northwestern.

Hoosiers Strike First

Indiana drew first blood in the conference race, becoming the first serious contender to come up with a big win on the road. Williams Arena in Minneapolis was on its feet from the outset last night, in what was a great, if not particularly pretty, basketball game. Despite Eric Gordon's foul trouble and the obvious passion the Gophers played with, Indiana made the key plays at the end and pulled out a 65-60 win.

Turnovers plagued the Hoosiers all night long, and they ended up with 24. But free-throw shooting haunted Minnesota. Though the Gophs got to the line seven more times then IU, they ended up with one fewer point. Free-throw shooting was a trouble spot in their near-escape at Penn State last weekend and will continue to plague their efforts to get to the first tier of conference teams if the problem persists.

Tubby Smith's team did not shoot the ball very well last night. Now Kelvin Sampson's teams always play hard-nosed defense, so at this point I'm more inclined to credit the Hoosiers rather then blame the Gophers. Minnesota gets another chance against a recognized contender when Michigan State comes in on Sunday afternoon. The game begins shortly after the Patriots kickoff, so it won't get the kind of national attention it otherwise might. But Minnesota played well enough to beat a good team last night, and could make the most of their next chance on Sunday. That they came up short is a credit to IU and removes any doubt that the Hoosiers can make noise on the national stage. The biggest reason for that is D.J. White, who put up another double-double. Terry Hutchens of The Indianapolis Star tells us that changes in his game have had beneficial results.

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Earlier this week, I posted that perhaps hope might be on the way for the Penn State basketball program. Hope was quickly dashed this week. Wisconsin came into the Valley and dominated the Lions from the start. But more serious was a knee injury to Geary Claxton. The departure of an MVP candidate from the game ended any hopes the Lions have and cast a pall over a brilliant performance by the Badgers.

And always casting a shadow over the PSU program is its more heralded gridiron counterpart. With Joe Paterno's contract set to expire after next year, a meeting of the higher-ups is at hand to discuss his future. President Graham Spanier expects Paterno to coach next year, but is uncertain about what's next.

Michigan State bounced back from its disaster in Iowa, by beating Ohio State at home on Thursday night. The Spartans again did not shoot well, but dominance of the glass to the tune of 39-28 gave them a six-point win. Buckeye big men Othello Hunter and Kosta Koufous were non-existent, while Goran Sutton grabbed nine rebounds for Tom Izzo. The Detroit Free Press's Michael Rosenberg says it was ugly, but still a win.

Rounding out league action from the middle of the week, Purdue did what Michigan State could not, and that's go into Iowa and come out with a win. Keaton Grant's 22 points keyed a 67-62 triumph. And Illinois beat Michigan 75-67 in Champaign. Four Illini players were in double-figures, led by Brian Randle's double-double (19/10) and nineteen more from Shawn Pruitt.