Health care reform in its present form seems to be getting some skepticism from the left side of the D.C. media divide too, as this column by Dana Milbank of The Washington Post indicates. Milbank’s issue is with a separate plan proposed by Michigan senator Debbie Stabenow, a woman of the Left, to add $250 billion to the deficit by essentially buying off the support of the American Medical Association. And this does show the financial problems of overhauling health care. Through poor management of money, and the drain on the Treasury created by an outdated Social Security system, the government can’t fix health care without going deeper into a debt.
As Obama’s approval rating hovers just above 50 percent (a few points higher than President Bush’s at the time he was narrowly re-elected in 2004), the Beltway is watching the coming November gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia closely. GOP candidate Bob McDonnell is pulling away from Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds in Virginia. Meanwhile in New Jersey, the momentum is going the other way. Republican Chris Christie has seen a double-digit lead over incumbent Jon Corzine drop into a dead heat. I would imagine that momentum and being in a Democratic state will put Corzine over the top.
If the elections work out that way, it would suggest a Republican comeback, but not a GOP surge. By that I mean, that some type of bounceback was absolutely inevitable. The Democrats are at the tipping point of the number of seats either party can reasonably expect to control. Virginia is a case in point. Obama carried this state in 2008. Now say all you want, about the northern Virginia suburbs of D.C. becoming more liberal. That’s true, but the Commonwealth is still conservative turf and there was no way that Republicans were going to continue being routed there. McDonnell’s victory is just a reflection that the cycle is moving back toward normalcy.
But for an election to truly be a surge, you have to win on non-friendly turf, as New Jersey is for the GOP. It’s good news for the party that Christie has been this competitive, but a win for Corzine suggests that Democrats are at least holding their own. And I think that’s a foreshadowing of what will happen in 2010. There will be Republican gains, but at this point I don’t see a tidal wave. I see “out party” gains within the historical norms that suggest regression to the mean, not a Republican takeover, is in the works.
Another area where regression to the mean may be underway is in New Hampshire. The Granite State was long known for its rock-ribbed conservatism. But John Kerry won the state in 2004 and Barack took it in 2008. That could be written off to a little bit of favorite-sonism, with Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts and a general anti-Republican wave in 2008. But New Hampshire’s also been electing Democratic senators and governors, giving rise to the belief that this was another conservative state seeing demographic changes produce political ones. Namely, people from Boston were moving out to escape skyrocketing housing costs—the NH border is only an hour or so from the Hub and bringing their politics with them. Indeed, in the spring of 2006 I sat at Fenway Park next to a couple from New Hampshire who told me that was the place to go for more affordable housing. But the GOP is leading the ’10 Senate race there by seven points at this writing. This is a small state, but in a world of close elections, it’s one they must start winning again.
Comments