Bos-Wash Corridor

Playoff Preview: Part Three

As we continue with the third installment of our playoff previews, I had hoped to be able to hold the Red Sox until last. But the Tigers and Rockies haven’t been able to close out their races, and the AL Central and NL wild-card spots remain very much in doubt as this goes online Wednesday morning. So a little earlier than I had planned, we’ll look at the two teams headed for their fourth Division Series collision in six years, the Red Sox & Angels.

BOSTON
Being this blog’s home team, our regular readers aren’t going to see anything here that hasn’t been said already. But I like to use the same format to evaluate the Red Sox that I use to look at other contenders. When you follow one team exclusively, there can be a tendency to exaggerate their flaws and/or overestimate their virtues, often forgetting that both are matched by other teams. From a lineup standpoint, the Red Sox have everything it takes to win a third World Series title in six years. Victor Martinez, J.D. Drew, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis are on-base machines and all hit for power. That’s almost half the lineup that can beat you both small and big. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are pesky at the top of the order. Alex Gonzalez is pesky at the bottom. And Mike Lowell and David Ortiz provide some more muscle in the middle.

The pitching is excellent for a short series. The problems at the #5 spot become irrelevant in the postseason. Beckett, Lester, Bucholz and Dice-K can match up with any top four in baseball. And in the LDS one of them can go to the pen. Which isn’t exactly in need of extra help. Billy Wagner and Jonathan Papelbon are a lights-out combo at the end of games, and Ramon Ramirez, Daniel Bard and Hideki Okajima give plenty of options for getting to them. The only question is this—why can’t this team, that looks so good on paper, beat good teams or win on the road? As a wild-card in the playoffs, that’s not exactly optional. By this point in the season, you are what you are. So the Sox have to dominate their home games and hope to steal just enough road wins to survive.

LA ANGELS
For better or for worse, these are not the same Angels that the Red Sox beat 9 of 10 times in LDS games in 2004 & 2007-08. Those teams played small-ball and had a lights-out bullpen. This year’s team has some serious muscle in the lineup, but the pen isn’t quite as stable. Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales are the leading offensive weapons. Howie Kendrick is a good supporting player in the lineup. They get added pop from Vlad Guerrero, in roughly the same spot in his career that Ortiz is. Mike Napoli is also a deep threat. At the top of the order, Chone Figgins is an outstanding leadoff hitter, with an OBP hovering around .400 and a big base-stealer. Bobby Abreu continues to get on base with proficiency. This Angel team can get into a slugfest with Boston for the first time in their postseason history.

LAA’s also got the starting pitching, although there isn’t anyone as lights-out as teams like Boston, New York or Philadelphia have at the top. John Lackey has that capability, but has had a merely good—rather than great year in 2009. Jered Weaver has been the best pitcher start to finish, but again nothing dazzling. This is where the acquisition of Steve Kazmir comes in so huge. Though his season-long numbers are poor, Kazmir has found his old form since being traded west. In five starts with the Angels he has a 2.01 ERA. If that’s a sign of things to come, this team has the stopper they need to go the distance. Mike Scoscia will need the bullpen to step up. Brian Fuentes has 45 saves, but a bloated 4.13 ERA for a closer doesn’t make you feel good about him if he has to pitch in a tie game, something that comes up more often in October. Remember Mariano Rivera’s three shutout innings in Game 7 of the ’03 ALCS that set the stage for Aaron Boone? Or Keith Foulke’s yeoman’s work for the Red Sox in extra-inning marathons in Games 4 & 5 of the ’04 ALCS? Those are situations a closer in October has to thrive in, and Fuentes is a big question mark. The setup crew relies on Jason Bulger and Darren Oliver. They aren’t bad. But this relief corps is a long way from its halcyon days of Justin Speier and Scot Shields giving way to K-Rod.

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Based strictly on the record, the Redskins season didn’t end with that 19-14 loss in Detroit on Sunday. The running game was again non-existent, as Clinton Portis had only 42 yards. I don’t blame Portis, whose ability is well-established, but the offensive line, whose mediocrity is just as well-established. At 1-2, with a home game against Tampa coming up, there’s time to turn things around. I realize that given the way the ‘Skins have played, telling us there are 13 more games to watch seems a mixed blessing at best. But while I’m realistic, I’m not giving up just yet.

Let’s continue to call attention to the play of Jason Campbell, who is not at fault for the problems we’re having. Campbell threw for 340 yards and only one interception in 41 attempts on Sunday. Back in my original hometown in Wisconsin, the debate rages over the merits of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Go look up the stats and take note that Campbell is at least as good as either one, and he plays with less support. And the brightest spot of this day was the emergence of Santana Moss, who had 10 catches for 178 yards.

I’m as discouraged as anyone by the Redskins’ play thus far, but we do have to remember this—just because the Lions were 0-16 last year and the loss was embarrassing, doesn’t mean that Detroit will be as bad this year. Consider another lesson learned by the people of Wisconsin—the Packers lost to the Bengals in Week 2 and it was seen as a disaster. Then we see Cincy turn around and beat Pittsburgh too and suddenly a loss to them isn’t so bad. If the Lions are going to turn around and become a 7 or 8 win team, a loss to them on the road, while disappointing, is not the end of the season. We just have to let it play out and see if we can get our ship back on track.

Playoff Preview: Part Two

It was a gloomy night on Friday in Yankee Stadium. The Sox lost 9-3, and Jon Lester barely escaped serious injury on a line drive off the bat of Melky Cabrera. But one of the big positives to come out of the game was the continued resurgence of David Ortiz, who homered, temporarily making it a game when his two-run blast cut the lead to 6-3 in the sixth inning. Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe wonders aloud if its an improbable dream or if Papi is really back.

I don’t know that the Papi we all knew and loved will ever be back. He peaked in 2006 when he hit 54 home runs, setting a new team record. 2007-08 was marked by injuries and a lot of missed time, even though he was still as good as new while he played. But at the same time, the washed-up Papi of the first two months of this season, who we then found out was on the steroid list also looks to be long gone. Since June 10, Ortiz leads the American League in home runs and his slugging percentage for the entire season has crossed the .450 barrier, something I consider a sort of minimum baseline for measuring decent power. His return didn’t come a moment too soon, as Boston heads for another October clash with the Angels.

We continue with our preview of playoff teams today. Since we’re in New York, it seems only logical to pick up with the Yankees today. And we’ll also look at the Dodgers, the team MLB is no doubt longing to see in the Big Apple later next month, in the ultimate clash between Joe Torre & the Steinbrenner Family.

NY YANKS
From an analytical standpoint there’s little not to like about this team, even if there are lots of reasons as a fan not too. Eight players are potent offensive threats, getting on base consistently and hitting for at least above average power. Only Melky Cabrera is not a huge threat, and even the pesky centerfielder is not an automatic out. A-Rod & Jeter both get on base better than 40% of their at-bats. Jorge Posada, Mark Texiera and Hideki Matsui provide the big-time muscle. The dimensions and wind currents in their home park undoubtedly pad these numbers, but all of these players were complete offensive threats well before the new Yankee Stadium opened its doors.

The pitching looks good, but not as good as a month ago. Andy Pettite’s been showing some cracks in the armor and A.J. Burnett’s seen his ERA creep up over 4. Here too though, consider that the park they pitch in does not lend itself to a good ERA. The bullpen isn’t incredibly deep, but with Phil Hughes setting up for Mariano Rivera it’s a weakness that can be concealed within the framework of a short series.

The real question is not whether the staff is good enough—they clearly are. But how will they respond to October pressure? Staff ace C.C. Sabathia has been in postseason play the last two years, with the Indians and Brewers respectively. He’s not been impressive. Last year could be overlooked, as he pitched on three days rest all the way down the stretch, including a rough outing against the Phils in the Division Series. But in ’07 he was unimpressive against the Yanks in the first round. He was rocked by Boston in Game 1 of that year’s ALCS and his best start was an above-average outing in Game 5 that he ultimately lost to Josh Beckett. The body of work isn’t enough to go jumping to conclusions, but in four October starts, C.C. has yet to pitch like an ace. Burnett has never been tested by this kind of pressure. Only Pettite has, and his elbow may be giving out. I think the Yankees are still the favorite, but these potential problems mean it’s not overwhelming.

LA DODGERS
Joe Torre’s team plays in a completely different environment than his old team does. Los Angeles plays its home games in a pitcher’s park, so we can’t read too much into the fairly non-descript power numbers of a lot of the offense. And they do a pretty good job of getting on base. Russell Martin, James Loney, Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake are all pretty good at keeping the basepaths active. Blake also has pretty good power and the guess is that would look phenomenal if he played in New York. And regardless of venue, the outfield of Manny, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier is very talented offensively.

The front office went out and acquired Jim Thome at the trade deadline. Thome is completely unable to play defense and has only eleven at-bats in the National League. His acquisition can have only one purpose—L.A. was filling a potential weakness for World Series games in an American League park. Most NL teams are stuck putting in a fourth outfielder or utility infielder at DH, while their opponent has a highly paid offensive machine. By adding Thome, the Dodgers won’t be at a disadvantage if they make the Series. The addition of Thome reminds me—in a different way—of the way the Red Sox went out and acquired Dave Roberts in 2004. They thought they might just need a guy who could steal a base at a key moment in the playoffs. The Dodgers similarly thought ahead, planning for all eventualities in the postseason.

From a pitching standpoint, the Dodger rotation doesn’t overwhelm with you big names, but they get the job done. Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf have pitched very well this season, and have to prove they can get it done with the heat on. If they can, Torre has everything he needs to return to the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003.

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It’s a scary spot for the Redskins as they head into a Week 3 game at Detroit. The Lions played well for most of the game against Minnesota last week, while the ‘Skins continued their renowned ability to play down to the level of their competition against the Rams. The area where the Lions have been weakest is being able to stop people. But can Washington take advantage? Randy Thomas is hurt, weakening what was already a problematic offensive line. Jason Campbell will play, but his participation in practice was limited. The same was true of Clinton Portis. Will we again have a day of moving the ball effectively between the 20s, but unable to get 7s rather than 3s?

The defense will need to stand up and make big plays. I’m looking for Brian Orapko and Rocky McIntosh on the outside to make some things happen and for Haynesworth to step up and earn his big paycheck. Detroit’s got rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford behind center and getting real pressure to force him into some mistakes is the surest way to quench any Detroit hope. A loss here would be a national humiliation, given the Lions’ long losing streak. It would also break any hope for an early win streak. After this game, the Redskins draw Tampa Bay at home, Carolina on the road and KC at home. All of which makes a 5-1 start going into the first game with the Eagles, a hope. But we have to show some more big-play ability than we have to date.

Playoff Preview: Part One

It’s a pretty drama-less final two weeks of the baseball season, even if blowing a six-run lead on Monday night in Kansas City was irksome and all but ended any hope of a miracle push at the AL East title. Although from the perspective of MLB itself, it’s perhaps more disconcerting that any prospective push by the Red Sox to catch the Yankees is really nothing more than an amusing sideshow with little impact on the postseason. The track record is clear—the wild-card is at no real disadvantage in the playoffs, and this season has shaped up just like 2003-05 & 2007, when the Sox & Yanks each spent the final week of the season drinking champagne and preparing for the postseason rather than really battling each other.

Peter Gammons has an idea on how to fix it, and it’s one I’ve long advocated. Add a second wild-card in each league and have a wild-card series on what is now the final weekend of the regular season, a best two-of-three. If the AL East runner-up was headed for a knockout series with Texas and at minimum having to burn up its two best starters heading into the Division Series, be assured that neither I, nor Yankee fans, would be as relaxed as we all are in these closing days of the regular season.

What’s good about this proposal is that it’s a perfect compromise from those who feel the wild-card waters down the regular season and those who want expanded brackets. Gammons notes that MLB’s leadership is hesitant to turn their game into the NBA or NHL with its meaningless regular season. I am very happy to hear that, because in spite of how much the Red Sox have benefited from the wild-card, I was not a supporter when it started, and my enthusiasm isn’t much higher right now. I believe a three-division format is ideally situated for either a no-wild card format, and giving the best team in each league a bye into the LCS. Or play with two wild-cards as Gammons proposes. Because that attaches a real benefit to winning the division, as opposed to entering in through the backdoor. A 3-and-2 format enhances the meaning of the regular season, especially in cases when two outstanding teams are in the same division. It keeps more teams in contention at the middle of the pack. And it gives television two extra postseason series, rather than a final weekend of mostly meaningless games. It’s the best of all worlds, and MLB should take a serious look at it.

Since most playoff spots are all but sewn up, this column will be the first of a four-part series where we take a look at the eight entrants. We’ll start today over in the National League, where the Cardinals and Phillies have run away with their divisions.

PHILADELPHIA
I really like this team, particularly with them being only an hour drive north and I’d try to go to the LCS or World Series if they get that far. And the Phils have so much of what is needed to make another run deep into the playoffs and possibly a second straight World Series title—something no NL team has done since the Big Red Machine of 1975-76. They’ve got the kind of power that can make a playoff game turn on a dime—Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth. Even better, all four of those players get on base consistently too. Shane Victorino is a consistent offensive threat, both at getting on and driving the ball for decent power. What remains mystifying is the complete collapse of Jimmy Rollins. How many other players could have a .290 OBP and still get over 600 at-bats? It’s testament to Rollins’ track record and he’ll have to show the team’s faith in him is justified in October.

The starting pitching is very good too. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are a devastating 1-2 punch from the left side. J.A. Happ’s got a 2.77 ERA. Joe Blanton has been consistent and Pedro’s pitched well since signing on in Philly, going 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA. One of these guys—two in the Division Series—can go to the bullpen. Which brings us to the blot on the Phillie resume.

Relief pitching is nowhere near championship-caliber. Brad Lidge has never gotten it going this year. Ryan Madson has been respectable as a closer, but that takes away an arm from the setup crew. The team is left hoping that Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero or Brett Myers can get healthy in September and make an impact in October. It’s a longshot hope. And this is an enormous problem in a playoff setting where even good offenses can’t just blow teams out consistently. Philadelphia’s going to have to win close games, and the pen has done nothing to suggest they are ready to do that.

ST. LOUIS
How far can you ride a few elite players? Answer to that question and you have the answer to their postseason chances. The offense is completely built around the incomparable Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, both of whom have racked up numbers that Boston fans got used to seeing in the Manny/Papi heyday of 2003-07. Beyond that, second baseman Skip Schumaker and catcher Yadier Molina do a respectable job of getting on base. But the rest of the lineup is inadequate. Mark DeRosa gets a lot of positive press, and he is a versatile defender with respectable pop, but his on-base percentage is a massive liability. Ryan Ludwick’s been a disappointment. And there’s not much else behind that.

St. Louis’ pitching staff is built around Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, both of whom have had absolutely dazzling seasons. Joel Piniero has been solid at #3, and John Smoltz has pitched well in five starts since leaving the Hub. The bullpen has the National League’s best closer in Ryan Franklin, and a solid setup man in Kyle McClellan. Lefty Trever Miller has a 1.98 ERA and is the kind of situational pitcher that can be crucial in a short series. And then there’s Tony LaRussa overseeing it all. You have to like their chances, at least within the National League, if it comes down to LaRussa’s ability to slot role players in the right spots and then letting the stars carry the day.

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It wasn’t an inspiring win for the Redskins, as they held off the Rams 9-7 on Sunday. The boobirds were showering down at FedEx Field, both prior to halftime and at the end of the game. The offense never got in the end zone, but it was no fault of Jason Campbell’s. He played a solid football game, throwing for 242 yards and no interceptions. He moved the team inside the red zone five times. But the running game is just not getting it done.

Clinton Portis piled up a respectable 79 yards on 19 carries. But the ‘Skins just can’t run the ball when people know they are going to run and that was shown on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line late in the game when Jim Zorn went to clinch the win rather than kick a field goal. I agreed with Zorn’s call. The TV analysts made the argument that it would have been wiser to get the three points and make the Rams get a touchdown to win. But if you take the three and then kickoff, the Rams probably start around the 30 or so, with seventy yards needed to get the win. Even with getting stuffed on the 1-yard line, the Rams still needed about the same seventy to get in field goal range to win it. So it was essentially a no-risk decision to go for the touchdown that would have locked it up. That Washington couldn’t get it speaks to the deeper problem this team has ,and I wonder if we’re headed for a year of a lot of movement by Campbell between the 20s, but precious few points.

Pulling Away To The Playoffs

Dan Shaughnessy of The Boston Globe is feeling the same sense of optimism that I was earlier this week, expressed in the post below. Namely, that after a season where we’ve seemed Jekyll-and-Hyde, and not all that strong, even when in first place, the Red Sox are suddenly looking every bit like a World Series team. And it’s no longer presumptuous to talk about playoff matchups. The lead over Texas is now stretched to seven games, and as noted here earlier, we have every game of the season’s final week at home. Boston is closer to catching New York than we are to falling behind Texas. In reality, neither scenario is realistic, and another Division Series showdown with the Angels is now looming.

The potential playoff series against the Angels is taking on even more drama in light of the controversy that arose after Boston’s win on Wednesday night, a dramatic 9-8 affair that was marked by dispute over the home plate umpiring in the bottom of the ninth. LAA’s closer Brian Fuentes openly charged the umps with being hesitant to make calls against Boston in Fenway Park. Mike Scoscia, who frequently seems annoyed with the umpiring on his visits here, also expressed frustration. And don’t forget that last year’s Division Series ended with a lot of anger in the Angel clubhouse, some of it against the umps and even more of it at each other. Scoscia didn’t like a key call in the top of the ninth when Jason Varitek tagged out a runner at third in a rundown and the ball then rolled out of his glove after the tag. In a debate more commonly scene in the NFL, the Angel skipper didn’t think the catcher kept possession long enough. It prevented LAA from taking the lead and the Sox then won the game—and the series—in the bottom part of the frame and prevented a decisive fifth game back out west that the Halos would have been favored to win. The aftermath of that game was also marked by John Lackey getting angry with his teammates for his lack of offensive support.

Boston and LAA have played so many big games against each other over the past several years that a certain amount of animosity was probably inevitable. However, I personally hope that this can remain a friendly rivalry. Perhaps it’s easy for me to say, since the Red Sox have won all three Division Series battles. But I admire Scoscia and the Angel organization enormously, and would root for them in a heartbeat in the ALCS should they beat us this year. Not just because the likely opponent would be the Yankees, but I’d pull for them against most anyone else in the AL (save the hometown Orioles here whom my wife loves).

However it shakes out, it looks like a virtual lock that another Boston-LA showdown is around the corner. This may trump Celtics-Lakers as a coastal rivalry before its over. And The Bos-Wash Corridor will begin its own playoff preparations next week. It’s looking pretty strong that the four American League teams will be the Sox, Yanks, Tigers and Angels--although the Twins can make one final push at Detroit starting this weekend when they're head-to-head. Over in the NL, the Dodgers, Cards and Phillies are all in, and the Rockies look likely to prevail over the Giants. We’ll start taking a close look at each team as we get set for another Octoberfest.

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The Redskins host the Rams in Week 2. To call this a must-win game is an understatement. Washington was the only NFC East team to lose in Week 1 and with the Cowboys-Giants going head-to-head on Sunday night it’s a guarantee at least one team will be 2-0. We can’t fall two games back out of the gate. Furthermore, a loss at home to St. Louis is just an ominous foreshadowing of what’s ahead. The Rams were shutout by Seattle in their opener.

Key to this game will be the ‘Skins defense focusing in on running back Stephen Jackson and taking him away. St. Louis’ chance at an upset hinge on controlling tempo with the running game and then breaking our hearts with a big play, similar to the long pass last year that set up a game-winning field goal at the gun. But if we take away the run, the occasional big play in the passing game will just be so much sound and fury signifying nothing. The Redskin defense turned in a credible effort against a good Giant running game on the road. There is no reason to think they can’t do the same against a bad Ram running attack at home. Offensively, I will be looking for much the same—can we establish Clinton Portis on the ground? If that happens, the big plays downfield to Santana Moss will follow.

Ultimately, it comes down to focus. Jason Campbell struck the right tone in an interview earlier this week. A reporter had referred to this as a game “you should win.” Campbell replied that in the NFL you get yourself in trouble when you start thinking about games that way. There’s just too much parity. That’s the focus a player or coach needs to have. Of course as fans, we can note the obvious—this is a game the Redskins should—indeed must have. If I had told you at this time last year that our playoff hopes would hinge on beating the Rams at home and the Bengals on the road, you would have surely liked our chances, as would I. But we lost in both “should-win” situations and ended 8-8 rather than 10-6. That’s why it’s games like these that need to be treated with Super Bowl intensity, even if no one outside Washington or St. Louis will bother to pay attention.

Breathing Easier In Boston

I’m sitting at home today with a stuffed nose and a bad cold, but I’m still breathing easier than I have in weeks. After last night’s 4-1 win over the Angels and a great weekend at home in sweeping Tampa, the Red Sox have got a real cushion in the wild-card race. The lead is now at 5 ½ games over the Rangers. Boston is the team that controls what way the half-game swings. And the schedule works to our advantage. Week 26, the final week of the season, sees us play seven home games, against the Blue Jays and Indians. Conversely, the Rangers will have to play all seven on the road, versus the Angels and Mariners. Basically if the Sox are just in a dead-heat when the final week begins, we’re a good bet to win it. And even being dead even would assume dropping 5 ½ games in the standings over the next week and a half. We’ve done it before, losing six in back in August against the Rays and Yanks. But that was a different Red Sox team, and more pertinently, it happened when playing key teams head-to-head. Even if Boston should slump, Texas is not playing well right now, having just lost two straight at home to the lowly A’s.

Even more hopeful is the way the pitching rotation is coming together. Clay Bucholz continues to be brilliant. And Dice-K made his long-awaited return to the mound last night against John Lackey. Even the biggest believer in Dice could not have expected him to throw six shutout innings against the top lineup in the American League. It all adds up to the Red Sox getting the rotation exactly where they need it to make a serious push in the postseason. I like our top three starters (Beckett, Lester and either Bucholz or Dice-K) over that of the Angels (Lackey, Kazmir, Weaver), the team we would again play in the Division Series. The problem here is more a mathematical concern. LAA is a good, solid organization and we’ve ousted them in this round three times (2004 & 2007-08). How many times can you go to the well against a good team before eventually they come up with a series victory?

But if we do triumph over the laws of probability, a potential LCS showdown with the Yankees looks a lot more inviting than it did a few weeks ago. Since July 31, the Red Sox have added Victor Martinez to the offense, Alex Gonzalez to the defense, Billy Wagner to the bullpen and now Dice-K to the rotation. Can you name another team in baseball whose personnel additions so thoroughly encompass every facet of the game? This is a reason wild-cards often triumph in the playoffs. It’s not that there’s anything magical about being in the lowest-seeded spot. It’s just that the teams that take the field in October are usually not the same as the ones who compiled a lot of the regular season record to begin with. No team has changed more for the better than Boston, and it’s that roster that has to be evaluated as we head to October. The numbers look very good for winning the wild-card race. And we’re going to be a tough out for anyone at the dance.

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The Redskins’ season-opening loss to the Giants did not come as a huge surprise, although I certainly wish we could have been more competitive. The 23-17 final was deceptively close. After falling behind 17-0, the ‘Skins never actually got the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. We closed it to six with 1:30 left but then failed to cover the onside kick. Nonetheless, there were a lot of positives to take out of this game.

Jason Campbell was the biggest positive. He was 19-of-26 for 211 yards and only one interception. To put it in perspective, he was more effective than Brett Favre in Week 1, who dominated offseason headlines. And he was more effective than Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, whom the media insists is the next great thing at the quarterback position. Campbell, playing a tougher opponent in a tougher venue, had better numbers than either one.

The key concern was that Campbell had to function without a running game. Clinton Portis had only 62 yards and you aren’t going to beat a quality defense on the road without being able to control tempo on the ground. This may just be a case of the New York defense being too strong. This coming week against St. Louis will give us a lot better indication of whether Portis is in real decline or just struggled against a well-coached and talented defense that was keying on him. We also did not get consistent pressure on Eli Manning. When you are beaten in both trenches, that’s a good recipe for defeat, and that’s what happened in the Big Apple last Sunday.

How Far Can The Sox Go?

There’s 23 games left to Judgment Day, as the 2009 edition of the Red Sox fight what is now an exclusively two-team race with the Rangers for the wild-card berth. Tony Massarotti of The Boston Globe opines that the Sox are closer to mediocre than they are to good, and cites an array of stats to prove his point. Massarotti’s position can be summarized concisely—the Red Sox beat up on bad teams and are only .500 against good ones, thereby demonstrating their mediocrity.

I disagree with this line of reasoning. Mediocre teams don’t bury bad ones. They struggle against them and let them off the hook. If one wants to argue, as Massarotti does, that Boston is not capable of winning a World Series because of these numbers, that’s one thing. But it’s quite another to suggest that this record is mediocrity. That’s what you say about teams that are .500 against everyone, not just the elite of the league. Then again, Massarotti might represent that obnoxious Yankee wanna-be strain within Red Sox Nation that says anything short of a World Series title is mediocrity. If he wants to think that way, that’s fine. But I think a team on a pace to win 93-94 games, as the ’09 Red Sox are, is a pretty good baseball team.

This doesn’t mean I give no thought to whether a World Series run is possible. And if we just focus on this aspect of the columnist’s piece, he’s much more reasonable. First off, his analysis is indisputable—since June 11, when they ran their record to 8-0 against the Yanks, Boston has done nothing that would suggest they are the best team in baseball, or even in the conversation. But there have been changes made over the last month that can change that dynamic. Victor Martinez strengthens the offense. Alex Gonzalez strengthens the defense. Billy Wagner strengthens the bullpen. Every one of these is a huge addition, and they haven’t been in Fenway long enough to really factor into any statistical evaluation. Then we have the possible X-factors, that being the returns of Tim Wakefield and Dice-K. The latter is scheduled to start on Tuesday. In looking at a possible October run, Wake is largely symbolic of what the team itself has been—he’s been good, he’s been tough over the long haul, but I don’t have confidence in his ability to beat a really good offense. That means getting a reliable #3 starter in the playoffs depends on Clay Bucholz pitching like he has recently, or Dice-K finding his form in the four or so starts he can get between now and the end of the year.

It all adds up a tough run through the playoffs where the odds are stacked against us. So to conclude this, let’s give our due respect to the team down in Dallas. Just making the playoffs will have to suffice as a good year—and contrary to Massarotti’s implied claims, there’s nothing remotely mediocre about that.

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It’s finally time for real football on Sunday, and the Redskins kick it off with a trip up to New York to face the Giants. The opener in this same spot last year didn’t go so well, as the offense was non-functionable in a 16-7 loss. That was a tough situation, as New York was playing with the emotion of being the host for the opening Thursday night and the celebration of their Super Bowl championship the year before. Much more disappointing was a second loss to the Big Blue at home in November, where we again failed to generate much offense.

Tom Coughlin’s defense gets a good pass rush, so we cannot get into situations where we have to throw. Establishing some type of ground game with Clinton Portis is going to be vital and we can’t fall behind early. We need to convert manageable third downs, most likely by finding Chris Cooley over the middle and keeping the chains moving. And then we need to prudently look for opportunities to make the big strike downfield to Santana Moss. The latter will be crucial, but only possible if the Giants have to key the run and on Cooley, and are unable to tee off on Jason Campbell.

Defensively, it would be ideal to stop the run. But the New York running game is so consistent, I don’t know if that’s feasible. What may be a more realistic goal for the Redskin defense is to make sure to cut off the big play deep—without Plaxico Burress, the Giants no longer have a real deep threat. And then to make the difference-making plays by getting pressure on Eli Manning when we have the chance. Albert Haynesworth has to start earning his money today, and gut pressure on Eli would be a major disruption to his ability to get the ball downfield.

If I were an objective analyst, I don’t know that I could pick the ‘Skins to win this game. But as a fan, I do see a lot of things I like. I believe we can contain the New York offense and turn this into the kind of game that will tip on a play or two either way. On the road against a division & conference favorite, that’s all you can ask. Either way, this is not a must-win game for us the way a home divisional tilt would be, and we should not let the excitement of Opening Day blind us to the bigger picture.

NFL Preview

The NFL season kicks off tomorrow when Pittsburgh hosts Tennessee (8 ET, NBC), and the Redskins start up Sunday on the road against the Giants (4:15 ET, Fox) so today’s column will be devoted to complete predictions for the coming season.

NFC EAST
Starting off with our home division, I think the Redskins have a great shot to compete this year, but substantial improvement off last year’s 8-8 is going to be tough. We may nudge it up to nine wins, but I can’t see it going higher than that, and nine will probably not be enough to get in the postseason. Still a second winning season in three years, and a third straight non-losing campaign would be a significant milestone for a franchise marred by inconsistency for so long.

At the top of the division, the Giants and Eagles are the early favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and if the Cowboys show just a few signs of life, they’ll move up to that class. Dallas has all the talent, but I just don’t believe in Wade Phillips and with three years to put his imprint on the club, I see another underachieving non-playoff year that will lead to a coaching change. Philly is a little bit different. I think Andy Reid and the organization have done a great job over the years, but I don’t see the talent level necessary to really have a big year. That leaves New York. They have everything but a big-play receiver and they are well-coached. Look for the Giants to bring home a second straight division title and third in five years.

NFC NORTH
The division that dominated the headlines in the offseason looks pretty good on the football field too. It’s hard to believe that Chicago’s trade for Jay Cutler has been relegated to backburner news, but the move of Brett Favre to the Vikings will trump any storyline. For both the Bears and the Vikings, the quarterback acquisitions fill their key needs. Both teams play good defense and Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the backfield. What’s being overlooked is that Green Bay has also filled a key need on their team—defensive coordinator. Head coach Mike McCarthy has done a good job with the offense and they will be able to put points on the board. But defense was a problem last year. The hiring of Dom Capers at coordinator, a man who’s put his imprint on defenses everywhere he’s been, is a big addition for the Packers. I like this division to sweep the wild-card berths, with all three teams making the playoffs. The Bears, with an aging defense, have the weakest strength of any of the trio, so I’ll have them in third. I like Minnesota to edge out Green Bay in their grudge match for first place.

NFC SOUTH
A very interesting group of four, with Tampa Bay being the only one I would write off, as they foolishly chased Jon Gruden out of town. Atlanta is a trendy pick, but they strike me as a team who may take a step back before they take the next one forward. They improved awfully fast, and the NFL can taketh away as quickly as it can giveth. Carolina is solid and well-coached, a team I like an awful lot. What it will come down to is Panther consistency versus New Orleans’ explosiveness. I am going to roll the dice and bet Drew Brees is able to gun his team to ten wins and nip Carolina by a game.

NFC WEST
Arizona captured the nation’s attention last year with its miracle run to the Super Bowl. San Francisco captured the attention of NFL observers with its strong finish after Mike Singletary took over the team. Seattle was the class of this division not long ago. And I think the Rams, written off by everyone are a team that has the markings of the next big turnaround story, of which one appears every year. St. Loo has a potential All-Pro quarterback in Marc Bulger and being in an unstable division means the chances for rapid improvement are there. But when it comes to finishing in first place, I’ll take Singletary’s Niners, with the Rams coming in second and the Cardinals falling below .500.

NFC Playoff Picture
Wild-Card Round: Green Bay over San Francisco, Chicago over New Orleans.
Divisional Round: Minnesota over Chicago, Green Bay over New York.
NFC Championship: Minnesota over Green Bay

Call it the easy cave-in to a great storyline, but I think the Packers-Vikings will have the ultimate war in their longtime rivalry when they square off in the Metrodome for the conference championship. After the events of the offseason, the game will make the 2003-04 Red Sox-Yankees LCS battles look like tame by comparison.

AFC EAST
It was a good division last year with Miami winning it, New England getting to 11 wins, but missing the playoffs, and the Jets clocking in with nine wins. But I see it falling apart this year. The J-E-T-S are going nowhere, and the Bills are not going to improve. The Dolphins will be the AFC version of the Cardinals and fall back to earth. That leaves the Patriots, with a resurgent Tom Brady, to run away with this thing.

AFC NORTH
A familiar look to this division—Pittsburgh is leading the way, Baltimore’s not far behind and Cincy and Cleveland are bringing up the rear. Since the 2002 realignment only the Bengals 2005 title has interrupted Steeler-Raven dominance. And even Cincinnati’s year was ultimately trumped by Pittsburgh’s wild-card run to the Super Bowl. The Ravens will be good again, but the loss of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan and a couple key pieces of the defense will keep them in the runner-up spot, while Pittsburgh grabs another first-place finish. Baltimore battles its way to the postseason again too.

AFC SOUTH
I like all these teams, but don’t like any of them. As in, I can look at all of them and see a pretty good football team. But none of them say “division winner” or “Super Bowl contender” to me. The coaching change at Indy is a cause for concern. Jacksonville is inconsistent. Tennessee is similar to Carolina—I have great respect for their coaching and operation, but another big year is going to be beyond their grasp. And until the Texans actually fulfill the promise everyone says they have, I’m not going to pick them to win a competitive grouping. Of all these problems, the Colts’ are the most manageable and I’ll take Peyton to return to the top of the South, with the Titans scraping out a wild-card berth.

AFC WEST
San Diego simply cannot lose this division. It is not possible. Josh McDaniel has destroyed Denver, and none of Bill Belichick’s lieutenants have really succeeded on their own. Al Davis’ Raiders are dysfunctional and the rebuilding has too far to go in Kansas City. It’s only a question of whether the Chargers will jump up and become a serious challenger for a first-round bye and #1 seed. The recent arrest of Shawn Merriman puts a cloud over their early season, but this is a team with great possibilities for breaking into the Steeler-Patriot duo and ultimately winning the Super Bowl.

AFC Playoff Picture
Wild-Card Round: Steelers over Titans, Colts over Ravens
Divisional Round: Chargers over Steelers, Patriots over Colts
AFC Championship: Patriots over Chargers

SUPER BOWL
We thought we might get a Brady-Favre matchup in the Super Bowl in 2007, but the Giants stepped up and spoiled that. We thought we’d get two Brady-Favre showdowns last year, but a knee injury spoiled that. It finally comes in this year’s Super Bowl and it’s anticlimactic. The AFC is vastly better than the NFC and not only the Patriots, but the Chargers and Steelers, are all better than anyone on the other side of the bracket. New England coasts to a fourth Lombardi trophy in the Belichick-Brady era.

Playoff Race Overview

Football temporarily takes a break from today’s column, but will get this space exclusively next Wednesday when NFL division-by-division picks are unveiled. Today’s column will focus exclusively on an overview of the 15 MLB teams that still have a reasonable hope for the playoffs:

*New York Yankees—The only way they can let their lead in the division slip is if they have the same kind of week the Red Sox had, when we lost six games in the standings in six days. The entire difference between us and our rival boils down entirely to one week of play in August. But New York’s starting pitching remains strong enough to prevent such a meltdown, even if Joba Chamberlain’s ERA is steadily climbing and the bullpen remains heavily dependent on Mariano Rivera.

*Boston Red Sox—The additions of Victor Martinez and Alex Gonzalez have made a big difference to the offense and defense respectively. Enough that position in the wild-card race looks strong. But whether the Sox can take it to the next level and become a serious threat for a third championship in six years depends on whether a third consistent starter emerges to join Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for the final push.

*Tampa Bay Rays—Offensively, the Rays are very strong, especially now that Akinori Iwamura is back at second base and their lineup is intact. But the trade of Steve Kazmir is really mystifying. The rotation still has four good arms—Shields, Garza, Niemann and Price. But Andy Sonnanstine has been a weak link this year and Tampa just doesn’t have the margin for error to waste every fifth day. The trade of Kazmir suggested to me that management has cautiously decided to look beyond this year.

*Detroit Tigers—They are heavily dependent on Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson in the rotation and Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. The bullpen isn’t bad—the setup roles aren’t that much lower than Boston’s, generally acknowledged as the league’s best. But Fernando Rodney isn’t that lights-out closer at the end of the line. Weaknesses at the back of the rotation and with getting on base consistently mean that you can never rule out the kind of slump that blows a division title.

*Minnesota Twins—How many years in a row can we keep paying tribute to the feistiness of this organization? The trend continues. The Twins are hanging in the rearview mirror of Detroit in spite of not getting a real comeback from Francisco Liriano and losing Kevin Slowey for the season. The bullpen is good and Joe Nathan belongs in any conversation about the best closer in the American League. I picked this team to win the division at the start of the year, and if this were an even race to the finish I’d pick them again. But can they make up four games? I have to lean to the negative. We look forward to next year when they move outdoors and get a stadium worthy of its tough team.

*Los Angeles Angels—They seem to have morphed into a little bit of the West Coast version of the Yankees. LAA now has a very good offense and a lot of power, with the emergence of Kendry Morales compensating for any decline from Vlad Guerrero. The starting pitching is pretty good and the addition of Kazmir makes it better. But the setup crew in the bullpen has changed from a major strength to a big liability. And unlike the Yankees, they don’t have Rivera at the end to bail them out.

*Texas Rangers—They finally have the pitching, both starting and relief. But the offense is actually a trouble spot. They have too many spots in the lineup that don’t get on base consistently and the recent news that Michael Young will miss two weeks with a bad hamstring was a blow they could not afford.

*Philadelphia Phillies—the addition of Cliff Lee has been enormous, as Lee has dominated National League hitters the same way C.C. Sabathia did when he went to Milwaukee for the last few months of 2008. And the offense remains a machine. But how much longer can this team go before the complete collapse of Brad Lidge finally catches up to them? No way can they beat either the Dodgers or Cardinals without a viable closer. But in the meantime, they are running away with the East.

*Atlanta Braves—they won’t go away in the wild-card race. The infield is very strong with the bat. Adam LaRoche has unleashed an offensive fury since the Sox traded him for Casey Kotchman, and around the horn, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar and Chipper Jones are all having good years with the bat. Starting pitching is good, with the addition of rookie of Tommy Hanson and the return of veteran Tim Hudson. Can a name familiar to Red Sox Nation step it up a notch? Derek Lowe needs to pitch more like an ace (4.38 ERA currently) if Atlanta’s to make it over the finish line.

*Florida Marlins—This is a three-man team. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla in the everyday lineup and Josh Johnson at the top of the rotation. The margin is too daunting and the number of teams to pass too much for a club with this little depth of talent.

*St. Louis Cardinals—Can you believe they turned the best division race in baseball into the most anticlimactic? It’s a two-man show on both sides of the ball, so to speak. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday carry the offense, while Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright carry the staff. And I suppose we shouldn’t forget Ryan Franklin, the top closer in the National League. Boston used St. Louis as its dumping ground this year, as Julio Lugo and John Smoltz ended up there. The Cards are poised to get the last laugh, with both players doing well in the Midwest.

*Chicago Cubs—This team doesn’t have a single reliever I would remotely trust with a one-run lead and a man on base against a contending team in the ninth inning. Carlos Zambrano is not pitching like an ace. Alfonso Soriano is not hitting like a big-money free-agent. With only slim hopes in the wild-card race, it’s safe to say the North Side will be spared the agony of another three-game sweep in the Division Series.

*Los Angeles Dodgers—You look at this team and they don’t appear overwhelming. The starting pitching doesn’t jump out at you the way it does with the Cardinals and Phillies. Perhaps that will catch up to them in October, with its heavy emphasis on aces. For now, the offense they get in the outfield (Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp & Manny) is excellent, given the park they have to hit in. And the addition of George Sherrill has paid off, as the lefty has combined with Jonathan Broxton to give Joe Torre a lights-out combo at the end of the game. Looks like they’ve turned back the challenge from Colorado and San Francisco and will win a second straight NL West flag.

*Colorado Rockies—You look at the numbers for this team and you suspect they could be a live dog in the playoffs again if they can win the wild-card race. The pitching ERAs are pretty good, with a lot of sub-4.00s, suggesting that the pitching might be truly outstanding in another park. The flip side is that the offense doesn’t look real good, given it plays at Coors Fields. Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki and Brad Hawpe remain the real deal, but the offense lacks any support for them. But if they are a pitching-heavy team, those are the kind to watch out for in October.

*San Francisco Giants---Don’t look now, but Barry Zito might be on the way back. After years of a bloated ERA over 5, the one-time Cy Young winner in Oakland is back down to 3.94. Put him together with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, and the Giants have a devastating rotation. They’ve added Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez to the offense, and Pablo Sandoval is the new best third baseman in the National League. Sitting here, they look like the best bet to scrape out the wild-card and get a trip to either Philly or St. Louis.

The Sox In September

We’re into September and it’s time for the stretch drive in baseball and the start of football. The next three columns of The Bos-Wash Corridor will be devoted to setting the table. In this edition, I will do a complete overview of the Red Sox, position-by-position. I will also complete my brief look-ins on each part of the Redskin roster and the surrounding NFL.

Then on Saturday, this space will be devoted completely to baseball, as I size up all 15 teams that still have hope of making the playoffs. Then next Wednesday, we’ll give way to football and do a final NFL division-by-division overview, complete with playoff and Super Bowl picks.

Today’s look at the Red Sox is laid out as follows--for offensive players, their on-base percentage and slugging percentage are listed, in that order, followed by brief comments. For starting pitchers, I show W-L record, IP and ERA. For relievers, just the ERA. Comments here are regarding the group as a whole. So without further adieu, let’s look at the September Sox:

Catcher/1st Base/3rd Base/DH
This basically amounts to a five-man rotation for these four spots, depending on whether Jason Varitek or Victor Martinez is catching. Which affects whether Kevin Youkilis plays first base or third base. Which can affect whether Mike Lowell or David Ortiz is DHing. So I’ll just take up all five players under this umbrella.

*Jason Varitek--.327/420
’Tek’s numbers are fading badly as the season wears on, and again we have to ask the question of just how much his intangibles of calling a game bring to the table. I tend to lean to always giving him the benefit of the doubt, but with the new flexibility in the lineup, it’s tough to justify giving him too many at-bats.

*Victor Martinez--.386/.500 (with Boston)
I was skeptical when the trade was made, but the early returns are great. We knew this guy was a great hitter and he’s blended into the lineup perfectly.

*Kevin Youkilis--.417/.563
He hits for average. He hits for power. He plays two different positions with equal skill. He’s on a team that’s in position to make the playoffs. If that sounds like a campaign speech for an MVP candidate, that’s because it’s exactly what it is.

*David Ortiz--.319/.444
Numbers aren’t all that bad, given how awful the start was. The slugging percentage is respectable and a good September could still lift it into the “pretty good” level. What an up-and-down year for the big man. From the homerless start, to the resurgence in June to the steroid revelations. Let’s see if he can write a good final chapter to a turbulent ’09.

*Mike Lowell--.346/.509
You just have to admire the way he plays the game. Lowell is obviously not recovered enough to run at a big league level, and he doesn’t move on defense the way he used too. But he keeps swinging a good bat and making a contribution any way he can.

2nd Base
Dustin Pedroia--.373/.441
He won’t win MVP this year or even be in the mix. But no one could have expected the little guy to hit 27 home runs again. The on-base percentage is dazzling and the power very respectable for a middle infielder. He plays a good second base to top it off. What’s not to like?

Shortstop
Alex Gonzalez--.288/.492 (with Boston)
That slugging percentage will go down, but anything he gives us an offense is a bonus. I love the way he plays shortstop and hope he gets inked to a deal to bring him back next season.

Left Field
Jason Bay--.384/.531
A very heartening season, suggesting his strong finish to 2008 was no fluke and that the post-Manny era is in good hands. Left field at Fenway Park is an exalted position, having been graced with names like Williams, Yaz, Rice, Greenwell and Manny. Jason Bay is proving himself a worthy heir.

Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury--.346/.418
I really wish his on-base percentage was higher, given he’s a leadoff man. But his hitting keeps improving and he plays one of the best centerfields in the American League. He completes a Sox defense that’s very strong up the middle—Varitek, Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ellsbury.

Right Field
J.D. Drew--.383/.496
Another quietly productive season, getting on base and hitting for power. This was a signing I didn’t care for when Theo gave him big money prior to the 2007 season. It took him a season to get started, but starting with his grand slam in Game 6 of that year’s ALCS, he’s been worth the money.

Starting Pitching
Josh Beckett—14-5, 175, 3.80
Jon Lester—11-7, 173, 3.58
Clay Bucholz—3-3, 51, 4.38

Don’t look now but Bucholz’ ERA is the same as Joba Chamberlain’s. Clay looks to be finally putting it all together and if he can become a viable #3 guy, making an October run becomes a real possibility. I only included three names, because the back end of the rotation is a mess. Who will it be day-to-day? Paul Byrd? Junichi Tazawa? When do Wakefield and Dice-K come back? Clearly, the most realistic hope for stability comes from a healthy Wake, who has a solid 4.12 ERA. If we miss the playoffs, instability here in September will be the reason. At least our top two are as reliable a stoppers as they are in baseball.

Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon—1.87
Billy Wagner—0.00 (with Boston)
Ramon Ramirez—2.67
Takashi Saito—2.68
Manny Delcarmen—3.25
Hideki Okajima—3.19
Daniel Bard—3.48

The depth here remains absolutely outstanding. It’s a key reason why I don’t think we’ll collapse in September and will be able to outlast the Rangers & Rays. The only downside to the playoffs is that the advantage of raw number of relievers will be minimized in a short series. Francona’s key decision will be making the right decision on who his best—beyond Papelbon—are. Tough call, given how close most of them are.

*************

I’ve looked at every facet of the Redskin lineup except the kicking game. Shawn Suisham is back at kicker. I just don’t feel entirely comfortable with him and wonder if we can’t do better. He isn’t horrible, but his range is nothing special. Having said that, we could do worse—we need only recall 2000, when we lost three games because of placekicking. The punting position looks bad, and I have a personal obsession with having a good punter, given the importance of field position (this is something I am regularly laughed at for by friends, but I’m sticking to my guns). The only thing I can say for Hunter Smith is that his name is not Derrick Frost.

In the last column, I broke the AFC into the Steelers/Patriots vs. Everyone Else. First and foremost in that Everyone Else category is San Diego. They have the talent, especially with Shawn Merriman back. For reasons I don’t quite get, Norv Turner is considered singularly incapable of winning big. Those of us in Washington should remember that he did rebuild the franchise from 3-13 to a steady 8-9 wins a year, without nearly the material he has in San Diego. I hope the Chargers come up short, because I think they treated Marty Schottenheimer horribly, but there’s no denying they have the horses to do it. Around the rest of the conference, Tennessee and Baltimore get attention based on last year’s performance, but I really don’t see a repeat. Indianapolis can’t be ruled out, but I just don’t believe enough in a team that’s had a coaching change. And this conference is too good at the top for a dark horse to steal it.