Bos-Wash Corridor

The AFC's Big Games

What more is there to say about the Bengals? The team all of us had written off as a lost franchise (again) is not only atop the AFC North at 7-2, but has swept all four games from the Steelers & Ravens. With the tiebreakers clinched and a one-game lead to begin with, Marvin Lewis is now likely to be hosting a playoff game come January. It was a slug-it-out battle yesterday with Pittsburgh and special teams was the difference, as a kickoff return swung the balance.

Cincinnati is in position to not only host a playoff game, but would be the #2 seed and get a bye if the season ended today, thanks to both Denver losing in D.C., and the Patriots losing to the Colts to fall to 6-3. The latter was an epic game. Both Brady and Manning were excellent. It does appear that New England is a little bit more balanced and they were the better team most of the
night. But the Colts pulled a rabbit out of their hat. A failed 4th-and-2 by the Patriots on their own 30 with two minutes left set up Indy for the winning touchdown in a 35-34 thriller.

I have mixed feelings about Belichick's decision on fourth down. I would definitely have punted, but I don't know that it was the complete screwup that it's being painted as. With the full two minutes to go, playing indoors against Peyton, I can see the logic of putting the ball in Brady's hands to win the game on that single play. Still wouldn't have done it, but I understand where the coach was coming from. Of far greater concern was New England's inability to put the game away after an interception game them the ball in Indy territory and a 31-21 lead. Put it in the end zone and we are not having this conversation.

Say "35-34" to any Redskins fan over the age of 35 and you'll get the memory of the 1979 finale, when we lost the Cowboys in the finale.
Had we won, we'd have been the top seed in the NFC. The loss knocked us out completely, in an incredibly tight conference race. New England fans now have their own bad memory.

NFC East Weakness

The Cowboys and Eagles both went on the road Sunday and both turned in subpar performances on their way to defeat. Both were completely shut down on the ground, even though Green Bay and San Diego are not renowned as run-stopping stalwarts. Though in fairness to the Eagles, the Chargers at least have the talent to do it, even if they don't always play like it.

Dallas played an awful game in Green Bay. Even though the Packers were good for their usual triple-digit penalty yardage and poor pass protection, the Cowboys could get nothing going offensively. Tony Romo wasn't bad, but this game showed that even good quarterbacks need at least some help from the running game. Philadelphia wasn't quite as bad, rallying from 28-9 down to make a game of it before losing 31-23. Donovan McNabb was very good in defeat, but not only could the Birds not run the ball,
the Charger offense was able to establish this part of the offense.

It all adds up to a relatively weak year for the NFC East so far. I caught the tail end of the Chargers-Eagles on CBS after I got back from FedEx Field, and the announcers noted that this rough performance comes in a year when every team in the division gets a game against BOTH the Raiders & Chiefs. What's happened? Philly lost in Oakland. Washington lost at home to KC. Dallas went to overtime against the Chiefs. And the Giants are collapsing against anyone in shoulder pads. There's still a ways to go, so this can turn around. And the division remains in strong contention to sweep the wild-card berths. But in a division that prides itself on supremacy, we're a step behind this year.

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A Debut To Remember

I went to my first Redskins home game ever on Sunday and it couldn't have been better. My friend (also a 'Skins fan and lives back in my old Wisconsin hometown) were wondering if the passion would still be there, given how the season has gone. All I can say is "Wow!" We came walking up to FedEx Field with just throngs of tailgaters, all decked in burgundy-and-gold, all pumped for the game. There might be a lot of boos, but that's because of the passion, not because the fans are losing hope. And the energy in the stadium was incredible. It was the first time I ever left a sporting event hoarse.

Of course the way the game went didn't hurt the crowd energy. We easily played our best game of the season, a honor that doesn't have a lot of contestants. Ladell Betts established the ground game and I believe further established that the time has come to phase
out Clinton Portis. The latter had a great career, but his body has taken way too many shots and he's a problem as far as team chemistry goes. Cost outweighs gain at this point in his career, and we saw what can happen for this team when we establish the run.

Not all was good though, especially in the running game. Trailing 17-14 in the third quarter, and facing fourth and inches we eschewed a 48-yard field goal and went for it. I would have kicked it, while my friend wanted to go for it, along with the rest of the crowd. It didn't work, but I'm willing to cut them a break. The play call was atrocious. We ran a sweep so slow in developing that I think it might still be taking shape today. You don't run outside in those situations. The odds of a tackle-for-loss are higher and the risk-reward ratio doesn't add up.

Still, one poor play call on otherwise great day. Nothing could mar this win, and I'll always savor it.

The Rest of Sunday's Card

Beyond the 'Skins game there's four other good games on Sunday. The Eagles and Cowboys both have road tests. Philly goes west to face San Diego, who's rejuvenated their season at 5-3. A tough road trip for the Birds, but Baltimore & Denver have already won in this venue and the Eagles are better than either team. The more relevant question is whether the Chargers have come together enough that such a comparison is no longer relevant. I'll pick the Eagles 23-20. And Dallas goes to Green Bay in what is a very big game for the Packers, who are in thick of the playoff chase, but have done nothing to suggest they can consistently beat the kinds of teams they'll need to down the stretch. If the Cowboys revert to their undisciplined selves, this game could set a new record for penalties. If Dallas plays like they did last Sunday night, it won't be close. The truth is somewhere in between. Call it Dallas 35-31 in a shootout.

The day's biggest games are in the AFC. In the early window, Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh. Sole possession of first place goes to the winner and if the Bengals do it, they finish a 4-0 sweep of the Ravens & Steelers. I like the way Pittsburgh is coming around, but I'm not going against a good home team here. Cincy, 20-14. And the ultimate quarterback showdown is Sunday Night when the Patriots visit the Colts. Homefield swings this one too, and Indy takes it 28-24. Of note is that New England, Denver and Cincy/Pittsburgh are all leading their divisions with identical 6-2 records and the race for the #2 seed. New England has to avoid falling behind in that race, and with a win gives themselves a real shot at the top spot, an edge that would be huge if they play the Colts again in January. No prospective matchup among contenders has that kind of weather differential.

Redskins-Broncos Heritage

I'll be attending my first Redskins home game on Sunday when they host the Broncos. I've been to road games before--an exhibition game against the Packers when I was a little kid growing up outside Milwaukee. Then a Saturday night game against the Colts in December 1990. And most recently a road game against the Bears in October 2004, a game we won 13-7 and both teams set back the cause of offensive football about a century. It's my one regret that I could never make it to old RFK, but at least I'll get to see the troops at home for the first time.

Continuing our theme of memorable Redskins' games against the coming opponent, picking the top game against Denver requires little imagination. The 1987 Super Bowl win with record-setting performances from Doug Williams, Timmy Smith and Ricky Sanders and the epic 35-point second quarter that gave the franchise its second title. I'd also like to recall a 1989 Monday Night game in RFK, when the wind was blowing so fiercely no one could throw the ball and the Broncos escaped 14-10. I cite this one as proof that it's always the darkest before the dawn. That game dropped us to 5-6 and realistically ended playoff hopes, but we won the final five games and from there rolled into a three-year stretch of making the postseason, including another Super Bowl win in 1991.

Hopefully that same darkness before the dawn theme will apply this weekend too. This is our second straight game catching a team off a Monday Night loss and the Broncos might be looking ahead to the Chargers next week. If the defense plays well, pulling off the upset is not unthinkable. Kyle Orton is a prototypical game manager and the Denver style keeps things close. Games like this is where the on-field loss of Sean Taylor is felt the most*--a big play on the defensive side could turn the game into an upset, but who's ready to stand up to make those plays since Taylor's tragic and untimely death?

*I feel funny talking about Sean Taylor in purely football terms, since his death was such a human tragedy, so it goes without saying that the problems of a lack of a defensive playmaker are non-existent compared to what happened to him and his family.

Ugly Thursday Night Debut

I didn't watch last night's Bears-49ers game that kicked off the NFL Network's Thursday night coverage, opting instead for the Bruins-Panthers. I can't say that I missed much. For Jay Cutler to throw for 300 yards and five interceptions and still not produce points for either team is a mark of monumental incompetence on both sides. San Fran's 10-6 win shouldn't show up on ESPN Classic anytime soon.

Chicago had no running game, with only 43 yards, while Frank Gore produced 104 yards for Frisco. The Chitown offensive line did protect Cutler though, not allowing any sacks and making his pick-ridden effort look even worse. And in getting the 300 yards, the top targets were running back Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen. I'm all for using these guys in the passing game, but you don't need to make a major trade for a supposedly franchise quarterback to hit the backs and the tight end.

I like Lovie Smith a lot, but this organization is clearly at point where they have to accept the need for a complete rebuilding project, with both team and coach committing themselves to a growth process. Or they need to go their separate ways. I'm sure it will be the latter. But the Bears might want to take a look at the example of the Steelers, who were in a similar spot with Bill Cowher after losing seasons from 1997-99. They knew they had a guy who could win and they stuck with him. They ended up making three AFC championship games, winning a Super Bowl and laying the groundwork for another Super Bowl title after he departed. There's something to be said for sticking with a good guy and Lovie Smith is that.

All-Star Selection Time: AL

We wrap up the two-day release of All-Star selections today with a focus on our own American League. See yesterday’s post right below for explanation of criteria….

C—Joe Mauer (Min)
1B—Miguel Cabrera (Det): Youk just missed too much time with injury at a competitive position. Mark Texeiria would have been an option, but Cabrera’s offensive production was better in spite of a much weaker supporting cast and playing in a very big ballpark at Comerica. Cabrera’s defense is the only sticking point, but the primary job of a first baseman is to hit and Miguel did that better than anyone and he was out there every day.
2B—Dustin Pedroia (Bos): close race, but he rated #2 in the AL in defense behind only light-hitting Jose Lopez. Enough to tip the balance in a close race with Brian Roberts and Robinson Cano. The AL East is in the midst of a golden age of second base play.
3B—Evan Longoria (TB): A-Rod’s the only one with the numbers to stay with him and he missed a month.
SS—Derek Jeter (NYY)
LF—Jason Bay (Bos): Johnny Damon and Carl Crawford had a case, but at a corner spot that demands offensive numbers, Bay’s were easily the best.
CF—Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos): I really feel like a homer typing this in and I went out of my way to look for a reason to pick someone else. But Jacoby meets the objective standard I laid out. Curtis Granderson had a bad offensive year. Tori Hunter, who is the best at the position, was hurt too long. Vernon Wells’ collapse is now old news. Grady Sizemore had a bad year. Ichiro’s now in right field. Jacoby had a good on-base percentage ,played every day and was the best defender in the league at a position that demands such. As I said, Hunter is the best—but Youkilis is the best at first base, I threw him out for missing similar time for injury. The Red Sox trade 1B for CF under this criteria.
RF—Shin-Soo Choo (Clv)—nips out Ichiro in a close fight, mainly because Seattle’s success was primarily because of their pitching, while Cleveland only won the few games they did because of their bats.
DH—Adam Lind (Tor)—Big Papi’s collapse went right along with the AL DH position. Hard not to see this collapse as being part and parcel of the new steroid testing. Congrats to Lind for a great year.

Starting Pitching
Zack Greinke (KC)
Felix Hernandez (Sea)
Roy Halladay (Tor)
Justin Verlander (Det)
C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
Would have loved to pick Jon Lester over C.C., but considering Lester had a slightly  higher ERA, pitched in a slightly better park for pitchers, had four fewer wins and 37 fewer innings, I don’t know how I could have sold that one.

Setup Men
Matt Guerrier (Min)
C.J. Wilson (Tex)
Wilson did some closing too, which gave him the edge for the second spot over Jose Mirajes of the Twins. Minnesota’s strength at this underrated area shows how they overcame so much to win the Central.

Closer
Mariano Rivera (NYY)
Paps wasn’t far behind, but Mariano had his best season in several years.

MVP: Derek Jeter (NYY)
He played the best defense of his career to go with an outstanding offensive season. If you could judge Joe Mauer solely on the games he played, he'd get the nod. But you also have to factor in the month he missed, and that pushed Jeter over the top.

All-Star Selection Time: NL

Its awards time in major league baseball and the next two days will have my AL & NL All-Star picks. The stats I look at are on-base percentage and slugging percentage for offense, and zone rating for defense, a stat that measures range. I also place a high premium on number of games played—you can’t help your team if you’re not on the field and that will explain some surprising selections that you will see. I also choose outfielders by position, rather than simply the top three. You don’t build a basketball team with five point guards and you wouldn’t build a baseball squad without balance in the outfield. And I give a much higher importance to defense for second base, shortstop and centerfield, less so to the corner spots.

For pitchers, the focus is ERA, innings pitched and the W-L record for starters. For relievers, I look at ERA and saves and/or holds. The format is to select an everyday lineup, including DH for the American League. Then I choose five starting pitchers, two middle relievers and a closer. From there we break it down to MVP. I don’t have a pick for Cy Young Award because I give pitchers a fair chance to win the MVP award—they might only be out there every fifth day, but their relative importance to their team is vastly higher the days they play, then it is for any other player. I’m more skeptical of specialists—closers, DH’s etc, for the top honor, though you can never rule anything out.

Finally, in the area of team success, I do look at how well a player’s team did, but the primary focus is on the player himself. Team success only comes in if it’s a close vote, and it’s not a given that it goes to the better team. I look at the player who was most important in the overall context of his team’s pursuit of its goals, be it the playoffs or just a winning season. Seattle and Texas had surprising winnings seasons—shouldn’t that get just as much credit for their players as the Yanks winning 103 games or the Sox making the postseason? I believe it should.

On with the selections. If there’s no explanation below it means I don’t think the race was all that close and looking up the relevant stats listed above on ESPN.com will provide all the clarification needed.

Today we’ll look at the National League…

C—Brian McCann (Atl)
1B—Albert Pujols (Stl)
2B—Dan Uggla (Fla): I was as surprised as anyone not to have Chase Utley in this spot. But the two players reversed defensive play. Uggla was at the top of the league, while Utley was near the bottom. Uggla was close enough on offense to move him to the top at a position for which D is vital.
3B—Ryan Zimmerman (Was): David Wright’s power disappeared. Pablo Sandoval at San Fran had a very good case, but the few games the Nats won were primarily because of their offense and Zimmerman was one of the team’s few threats.
SS—Hanley Ramirez (Fla)
LF—Ryan Braun (Mil)
CF—Shane Victorino (Phi): He played the most and his defense was the best, particularly when compared to Matt Kemp, the other candidate for this spot.
RF—Andre Ethier (LAD): This battle with Jayson Werth was the single toughest choice I had to make in either league. But Manny’s missing 50 games because of the steroid tests meant Ethier’s production meant the most to his team.

Starting Pitching
Tim Lincecum (SF)
Adam Wainwright (Stl)
Chris Carpenter (Stl)
Jair Jurrjens (Atl)
Matt Cain (SF)
I really only like about 2 ½ of these choices. Lincecum and Wainwright are real All-Stars. Carpenter was great when was on the mound, but came up a little short of the 200 IP threshold I like to see from an All-Star. Jurrjens and Cain are there because I needed to fill the spots.

Setup Men
Jeremy Affeldt (SF)
Todd Coffey (Mil)
Coffey gets the nod over others with better ERAs based on the raw amount of work he put in.

Closer
Ryan Franklin (Stl)
His late-season slump and meltdown in the playoffs obscure what a great year he had. Big question whether he can repeat it though, those kind of slumps sometimes get in closers’ heads.

MVP: Albert Pujols (St. Louis)

American League goes tomorrow.

An Outreach To Yankee Fans

I’ve done no shortage of fulminating against the Yankee payroll and the attitude of their fans, with little jabs throughout the season that turned into some roundhouses during the postseason. Upon further review and reflection, I do have to say that this was a display of bad timing and violated two of my core beliefs as a sports fan—don’t rain on someone else’s parade. And if you have a problem with the system, in any sport, save it for the offseason. The season is the place for analyzing and discussing the world as it is, and we have the rest of the winter to discuss any changes that should take place.

It was a conversation with my Yankee-fan boss that brought me back to a normal trajectory. In an ecumenical display, we reached common ground. He was in complete agreement that there’s something inherently wrong with a system that lets any team pile up the kind of payroll advantage the Yanks routinely do. I agreed that New York wasn’t breaking any rules in doing so and that further, they are in a unique position. The Yankees have to put a marquee team on the field, or the casual fan in the Big Apple will go somewhere else—maybe the Mets, maybe to a Broadway play, take your pick. New York isn’t a market that accepts anything less than the best and the Steinbrenners didn’t create that.

As much as I dislike the whole culture of superiority that surrounds Yankee Nation, there are parts of it I can understand. On Memorial Day weekend 2006, I drove to a Connecticut suburb of NYC to meet up with friends. We went to the old Yankee Stadium for a day game and then spent a great evening having a good Italian meal in the Bronx, in a neighborhood under the watchful eye of the Cosa Nostra. Who knows, maybe Michael Corleone was having dinner with Solozzo and McCluskey somewhere and we left before the fireworks started. If you’re someone who grew up in the New York area, maybe you have childhood memories of days like that with family and friends, and loving the Yankees is a part of that. That’s being a fan for the best of reasons. We can further tack on the Yankees’ excellent tradition of opening each game with “a moment of silent prayer for the service men and women stationed around the globe, protecting our freedoms and our way of life.” That’s a tradition to be proud of. I wish more Yankee fans would celebrate that, instead of sticking “27 World Championships” in your face, oblivious to the big financial edge they enjoy. Or, if there is a silent majority of Yankee fans who love the team for the right reasons above, I wish they’d be silent no more.

So if you’re a Yankee fan in the spirit of my 2006 trip, my apologies for the constant bashing. And if you’re a “27 World Championships” idiot—well, the Gaelic phrase for you is Pog Mo Thon, an invitation to pucker up to one’s posterior.

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The Steelers really put on a defensive display last night in Denver and with the return of Troy Polamulu, have the looks of a team ready to make another run at a title. The Broncos fell to 6-2 and opened up the race for the critical #2 seed in the AFC, as the Patriots, Bengals and Steelers all have the same record. The Western Division is also up for grabs again as the Chargers are back within a game.

I like what Josh McDaniel has done in Denver, and I respect Kyle Orton as a game-manager. But he made some mistakes last night that just can’t happen. The Broncos don’t have the margin of error for him to be tossing balls up for grabs, like the one Polamulu picked off and set up the touchdown that broke the game open. Denver looks like a 10-6 kind of team, and the main question is whether the Chargers can play with the kind of consistency it will take to beat that. That’s an open question, but in the bigger picture of the AFC, Denver is undeniably a step behind Indy and Pittsburgh, and probably New England too, their win over the Patriots notwithstanding.

Redskins Fall Again

The 'Skins just can't get a complete game put together. The offense was respectable yesterday in Atlanta. Even with Clinton Portis going out, Ladell Betts still rushed for 70 yards. Jason Campbell had another decent stat line. But the O still found a way to committ just enough mistakes, notably the one interception Campbell threw being taken to the house. And defensively, the ability to stop the run was not there at all. Michael Turner had a huge day, going off for 166 yards, so even keeping Matt Ryan under control wasn't enough. On the one hand, it's nice to see the offense show some signs of life, even if they didn't exactly explode in the Falcons' faces. But on the other hand, it is the sign of a losing team when you're lamenting of how you can't get a game where both the offense and defense play well simultaneously.

Elsewhere in the NFC East, there
was some high drama. It started in the late afternoon, when the Giants coughed up a game to the Chargers 21-20. Attention understandably focuses on New York's inability to get in the end zone with three minutes left and they had 1st-and-goal on the 4 with a 17-14 lead. A holding penalty made them settle for a field goal on 4th-and-3. I would have thought about going for it had I been Tom Coughlin. Miss it and they still have to drive 70 yards or so to get in field goal range, which only ties you. That's about the same distance teams have to drive for a touchdown after a kickoff return anway. And if you put it in, the game's over. But Coughlin did what any coach would have done, so I'm not going to fault him. The real story was that the Giants piled up over 100 yards in penalty yardage. And Eli Manning showed that passer rating is the most overblown stat in sports. He had a 112.5 rating, thanks to a 25-for-33 percentage. But it was a dink-and-dunk
passing game that doesn't put points on the board.

In the Sunday Night showcase, Dallas got an enormous win in Philadelphia. This was a penalty-ridden game on both sides, but it was a good one to watch. Two interceptions by Donovan McNabb were the difference in a 20-16 final. But the biggest was not his fault. It bounced off the hands of Jeremy Maclin and into the defensive back's hands, setting up the first Dallas touchdown. The Cowboys are now in sole possession of first place in the East. On top of the Yankees winning the Series, and the enemies of The Bos-Wash Corridor had quite a week.