The College Basketball Notebook

Hosting Change

The Notebook Family is now hosted as part of the Real Clear Sports blog network. You can use th domain name www.thecollegebasketballnotebook.com to get there directly.

The Pros & Cons Of 96

The odds look pretty good that next year's NCAA Tournament will be a 96-team affair. The NCAA has the option to opt out of its current contract with CBS and take the tournament onto the open market. Tacking on 30 additional games for television will surely bring bigger rights fees, and no sports entity has ever said no to that. In this format, 64 teams will begin play on the Tuesday after Selection Sunday. The winners would advance to face the top 32 (seeds 1-8 in each region), who would get byes into the Thursday/Friday spot. Essentially, the first week would be jammed-packed with three rounds, and still pare the field to the Sweet 16 by the end of Sunday.

Reaction has been heavily against the expansion, with the exception of the coaches. The primary thrusts of argument, both pro and con are heaped in exaggeration. To hear opponents, tinkering with the field is on a par with burning the flag. To hear coaches, this is all about giving kids extra opportunities, as though a scholarship athlete at a top-flight institution who doesn't play in the Big Dance is leading an impoverished life for it. I have mixed feelings on the subject, but as you can tell, neither of the primary arguments have registered much a chord with me.

As to the argument that expanding the field waters down the regular season...please spare me. For people who only care about who wins the national championship (an important qualifer) this is already the most meaningless regular season this side of Gary Bettman. No team with a serious chance at contending has the slightest doubt they will be in the field from the moment the ball is tipped in November. Compare that even to baseball. Teams like the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies expect to be in the playoffs, but there's at least a little bit of doubt. How many times did the thought of Duke or Kentucky missing the Dance ever cross anyone's mind? Whether we debate which sixth-place power conference mediocirty should get in, or which eighth-place power conference mediocrity should get in will have little impact on my view of the regular season.

Then when we get to the tournament, the NCAAs give the least rewards to their regular season leaders than any other sport. There is no homecourt advantage. Unlike the NFL, there are no first-round byes, something that gives matchups between powers enormous significance in pro football, but is non-existent in college hoops. The NCAA also does not re-seed the bracket after each round, meaning it's no guarantee that being a #1 seed is going to be more advantageous than being a #2, once the bracket shakes out.

I care about the regular season, and readers know I devoted all the ink here since November to talking about who would win conference championships or league tournaments, because I believe those are significant achievments in of themselves. But if all you care about is who cuts down the nets at the end, the regular season has little to offer you already, so changing the format isn't going to hurt.

I'm intrigued by the 96-team format precisely because it does offer byes to the top eight seeds in each region. This still isn't going to impact who wins the national championship--Villanova in 1985 was the only team to come out of an 8-9 game in the first round and win it all, but it might impact who makes the Sweet 16. It might restrict the ability of mediocre power conference teams to catch lightning in a bottle for one week, win a couple games and then to have to hear the media crowing about how they proved they belong, or some other nonsense. If you take an #11 seed or #12 seed and make them win three games in five days to advance, the accomplishment might mean a little something. The desire of teams to avoid playing on Tuesday night would enhance the end of the regular season.

That's the positives. I count two negatives. The first has been addressed at length in mainstream debate, and that's what would happen to the office pool phenomena. I don't think it would kill the office pool, but it would hurt it. Having just two days to do your picks, and tacking on 30 games to pick isn't going to encourage non-basketball fans to participate. And it'll be a pain for those of us who do follow the sport all year long too. The other negative is the tendency to push any change in format to its logical conclusion. What I mean by that is this--once the tournament expands to playing on Tuesday night, how long will the NCAA let 32 teams--it's best 32--sit idly by while the television cameras are rolling? It would probably take 7-10 years, but it seems to me that once you open up the floodgate by having teams play early in the week, it's only a matter of time before everyone is playing that early. Which means a 128-team field. Which strips away all the advantages of 96.

My conclusion--96 has its upside, but on balance the negatives still outweigh the positives and I am hoping against hope this idea disappears.

The College Basketball Notebook will also disappear for a few months, but the action will going steady in other branches of The Notebook Family. Baseball will be updated at least five times a week from now until the last out of the World Series. And with this being the month of spring practice and the NFL draft, we'll have some brief overviews on both the Pro & College Football Notebook. The first of those will be up later today at each site.

And if you're just a college hoops fan, be sure to bookmark www.thecollegebasketballnotebook.com and come back in November! Congrats to Duke and hope to see you all over in the other parts of the Notebook.

A Championship Conclusion

It was a championship game worthy of the stakes. The defense was tough and physical, and the game was low-scoring without seeming sloppy offensively. As discussed here in yesterday's post, Duke cooled off considerably from behind the arc, and Butler was able to get themselves in position to win. In the end, the biggest difference in a game that came down to a single bucket was that the Blue Devils were able to convert a significantly higher percentage from the floor (44-35). It was due primarily to driving layups and put-backs, the kind of easy baskets that are gold in a game this tight. It was enough to negate narrow Butler edges from the line and on treys.

The combination that brought it home for Duke was a familiar one. Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler did the bulk of the scoring--47 of the team's 61 points, while the big fella, Brian Zoubek
hit the boards hard. He had 10 rebounds, including the one that all but secured the championship, off of Gordon Hayward's miss with 3.6 seconds left. The Notebook has stressed Zoubek's importance so much throughout the season, because the emergence of the Z-Man was the team's X-factor. As good as the Triple S combo is, Duke's had great players like that over the past few years. But they haven't had anyone who could really bang down low and it always caught up to them. Once they found one, they got back on top.

Defensively it was a very good night for Coach K's team, as the shooting percentage disparity indicates. But we do have to note that Butler hurt themselves inside by missing a lot of makeable shots, especially early. Matt Howard and Hayward combined to shoot 5-of-19. The last two shots--the fadeaway with 3.6 seconds left and the desperation toss that almost went in will be most remembered, but the first was very well-defended and the
latter would've been a fluke. If there's anything Butler will regret, it's some of the missed gimmes early in the game.

Overall, a great ending to a great tournament. This arm of the Notebook Family isn't quite done yet. The possible expansion of the NCAA Tournament to 96 teams next year was a hot topic throughout March. I held my tounge, because the Notebook's policy is to avoid commenting on structural changes to a sport while the season is still going on. But tomorrow we'll usher in the offseason with some thoughts on the proposed expansion.

Duke-Butler Preview

There's really no reason not to pick Duke tonight, unless you have a strong gut feeling the other way or just love a good Cinderella story. The home city advantage Butler has is real, but we also saw last year how much good it did Michigan State against North Carolina. What interests me more in sizing up this game is finding a reasonable scenario under which the Bulldogs can pull it out.

From a strategic standpoint, Butler needs to pick their poision, and I'd roll the dice and make Duke beat me from the outside.Now the Blue Devils buried their treys left and right on Saturday and while they almost certainly won't be that hot again tonight, Scheyer, Smith and Singler all have good track records as outside shooters. But Brad Stevens needs to have a certain amount of fatalism when making his strategy. Duke has to play below its profile in at least one
area, in a way that Butler really can't control. The percentages say it's best to take your chances that they'll have an off-night from the outside. If they stay hot, they're going to win regardless of how many strings the Butler coaching staff pulls. The key is finding a way to win if they cool off.

Butler then must rebound the basketball. Remember, rebounding is key to Duke's three-point shooting. The big bangers--Zoubek, the Plumlee brothers, etc, will get an offensive board and kick it right back out for another three. Boxing out is an absolute imperative and beating the Dookies to long rebounds is another. Baylor and West Virginia didn't do either one in the regional final and on Saturday. If Butler does this things, it's no guarantee they'll win--Coach K's team played good defense against WVA and will surely bring their top effort again tonight. But containing the outside shooting of the Devils and preventing second shots will give the
Bulldogs a puncher's chance.

The media would surely love a Butler victory. Over the past few years, they've taken stories like the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry and the Brett Favre retirement sagas and beat them to death beyond all recognition, so we are about due for another good story that we can be completely smothered with and made sick of. The re-enactment of the movie Hoosiers in real life would be a good candidate. But I don't see it happening tonight.

See you tomorrow to rehash the game. Earlier today The Baseball Notebook previewed some of the key series of the early part of Opening Week.

Final Four Saturday Recap

The championship game is set, as Duke & Butler advance. After a tournament in which my picks were mostly horrible, I got off the schneid yesterday hitting both winners, although the size and scope of Duke's win caught me off guard. The Blue Devils played a fantastic all-around basketball game. Forget what Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg said about this being their best game of the tourney. This was their best game of the entire season. Lest any Duke-haters complain of officiating bias, let's note the Dookies attempted only nine free throws. But they hit 52 percent from the floor. They buried 13 treys. And their Triple S package hit on all cylinders, as Singler, Scheyer and Smith combined for 63 of their 78 points.

Butler continued its Cinderella run to a national title in their own hometown with an ugly 52-50 win over Michigan State. This was a game in
which the Spartans held the Bulldogs to 30 percent shooting, while hitting 42% themselves. They won the rebounding battle, albeit not by the big margins they are accustomed too. It was turnovers that did them in, sixteen of them to be precise. Korie Lucious had filled in admirably for Kalin Lucas up to this point, but finally hit his wall, coughing it up five times. Butler follows in MSU's footsteps from last year, as they play a national final in their home city against the best team in the ACC.

Not yet sure who I like in the final game and will be back with that tomorrow. Final MLB previews will be up mid-afternoon over at The Baseball Notebook, in anticipation of Red Sox-Yanks tonight.

Saturday Picks

As far as analysis of the Final Four field, the hay is pretty much in the barn. You can scroll down through the previous tournament posts, as I talked about each team's strengths and weaknesses from at least the Sweet 16 forward. For Duke, Michigan State and West Virginia, their respective issues have been high on the Notebook's agenda all year long. And if I missed anything, each team got one more complete overview this week that you can get to quickly in the Recent Posts colum on the right. All that's left is to take a stand and come out with a pick. I like Duke and Butler to win today.

In the opener, Butler is going to have homecourt and the two best players on the floor in Gordon Heyward and Shelvin Mack. Were it not for the fact Tom Izzo is patrolling the other sideline, I wouldn't have even thought twice about it. Izzo's presence means Michigan State will find a way to bring this one down to the wire, just as their games against Maryland and Tennessee were. But you can only go to the well so many times before the ball bounces the other way, and I see it bouncing Michigan State out and Butler into an improbable appearance on Monday night.

The nightcap shapes up as closely contested, but I don't have much doubt in taking Duke. I respect West Virginia's ability to defend, and their size and wingspans could create problems for the Blue Devils shooters. They also have the ability to rebound from every spot on the floor. These facts alone mean they will be a tough team to beat. But Duke's backcourt combines both explosiveness and efficiency, Kyle Singler can take a game over and Brian Zoubek gives the Devils someone to bang down low. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if WVA wins this one, but I wouldn't predict it either. Duke's too complete. And as much as I respect Bob Huggins, having Coach K pull the strings down the stretch only give Duke an added edge.

The Baseball Notebook completes its divisional previews later this afternoon with the AL West. And we'll see you back here tomorrow to recap today's games.

The Road To Indy: Duke

Duke may be one of the biggest names in the sport with a living legend on the sideline and a #1 seed by their name this year, but they are another team whose resume didn't shout "greatness" as the season progressed. What they did offer was a steady consistency and component parts that could be seen gradually coming together as March approached.

The early non-conference schedule was marked by wins over Arizona State, UConn and St. John that were nice, but no great shake. It seemed more indicative that a loss at Wisconsin was mixed in. The trend continued. Duke blew out Gonzaga, but lost early ACC games at Georgia Tech & N.C. State. They stepped up and won a big game at Clemson in prime-time in front of ESPN's Gameday, then turned around and were buried at Georgetown. They showed their consistency from that point forward, winning eight straight. They showed what seemed to be their limitations when they fell at Maryland and into a tie for the ACC championship.

Coach K took his troops to Greensboro for the ACC Tournament. It looked like three days that had warning signs all over again. They struggled to get past Virginia and 12th-seeded Miami, and even the 65-61 championship win over Georgia Tech didn't look overwhelming. But Maryland, Florida State and Clemson all played themselves out before they could get a crack. It was indeed a foreshadowing of the NCAA Tournament to come.

Duke's played good basketball in this tournament, beating a talented #8 seed in Cal and then taking out Purdue and Baylor to win the regional. And they've watched every other #1 seed fall by the wayside, thus arriving in Indy as the favorite to win it all. As in recent years with the Blue Devils, the strength is the backcourt. This year it rises above simply being a strength and into the realm of excellence. Jon Scheyer was one of the best players in the ACC and can both score and distribute from the point. Nolan Smith can handle the ball and score at the two-guard spot. Go to the frontcourt and Kyle Singler can score in the post and step outside and drain the trey. But doing these things didn't make this club all that different from the Duke teams of 2005-09, which were good teams, but not Final Four material. It was the long-awaited emergence of big Brian Zoubek down low. The seven-footer finally stepped up and became a rebounding force, going for double-digits on the glass night-in and night-out. That was the key development Coach K needed to make his 11th Final Four.

That concludes our run through Saturday's participants. Tomorrow morning I'll make my picks for these games, something you will no doubt await breathlessly (note sarcasm). The Baseball Notebook made its picks on the AL Central earlier today.

The Road To Indy: West Virginia

West Virginia has been highly regarded and a consistent winner all year long, in the mold of their coach, Bob Huggins. But it’s only been in the last several weeks that they’ve taken on the look of the Final Four team the nation now sees.

The Mountaineers rolled through a mostly non-descript December schedule. They began Big East play after Christmas with two narrow wins over Seton Hall and Marquette—nothing to sneeze at, but nothing that shouted “Indianapolis” either. Then they were beaten decisively by Purdue on New Year’s Day. Now this was the Boilermaker team that still had Robbie Hummel, and it was in West Lafayette, but it still fit the “good but not great script.”

That pattern continued through wins over Louisville and Pitt, then a loss on a return trip to Pitt. The season hit its low point with an 11-point loss at UConn. From that point forward, the Mountaineers have not lost since. This included a win at Villanova in the regular season finale, a game that proved to be two ships passing in the night.

New York City provided thrills, as WVA won the conference tournament, getting wins over Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgetown by a combined total of seven points. That led them to a relatively uneventful run through the first three games of the East Regional, followed up by their holding off Kentucky to make it to Indianapolis.

Huggins puts a four-forward attack on the floor, a size-oriented approach that’s rare in an age when most teams are built around the backcourt. They all score and rebound. De’Sean Butler is the leading man, with Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks close behind. Wellington Smith is the fourth wheel. The key to their success, as readers know I’ve been bringing up all year, is the backcourt. Do they get enough efficiency from the point guard to enable a smooth-running offense? When Daryl Bryant went down with a broken foot prior to last week’s regionals, it looked like a fatal blow. But backup Joe Mazzula stepped up and played the game of his life against Kentucky. Just as Butler played the games of his life in the run through New York City. They’ll need them all to do it again on Saturday & Monday to cut down the nets one last time.

Tomorrow our run continues with a look at Duke. And The Baseball Notebook has a preview of the AL East up today.

The Road To Indy: Butler

Butler's been a respectable and competitive midmajor program for over a decade now. Indeed, with the collapse of Indiana, and Purdue being down until just recently, they rose to become to the top team in this basketball-proud state, so it's perhaps appropriate that they get to come home for the Final Four. But in this particular season, absolutely nothing transpired to suggest the March run to glory that we've seen.

The Bulldogs' journey began in Anaheim for a preseason tournament last November and they lost to Minnesota and Clemson. Both were NCAA Tournament clubs, but losing to them on a neutral floor didn't suggest emerging greatness. A loss to Georgetown followed. Before December was out, Butler beat Ohio State and Xavier to give at least a spark to the national consciousness. But they gave it back with a December 22 loss to UAB. That was their last defeat, but the rest of the schedule was a run through the Horizon League and the likes of Cleveland State, UI-Chicago and my old alma mater, UW-Milwaukee. Again, very impressive to run the table, but not something you use a basis for picking a team to reach the Final Four.

Opening weekend of the NCAA was more of the same. Butler beat UTEP, then caught a break when Vanderbilt lost to Murray State. It was last weekend, when they delivered an electrifying performance in suddenly taking out #1-seed Syracuse and #2-seed Kansas State in succession. No breaks in the draw were necessary on regionals weekend, as the Bulldogs became America's latest favorite team.

Butler has a good four-pronged attrack, although Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward stand a notch above. Both are scorers, while Mack also distributes the ball well. The swingman Hayward hits the boards with abandon. And they get able support from Matt Howard and Willie Veasley who are respectable scorers and rebounders both. The bottom line? They match up well with Michigan State and will have a homecourt advantage on Saturday. The ability to surprise people is long past, as the Bulldogs have been installed as a 1.5 point favorite by Las Vegas. As unbelievable as it sounds to say, a national championship is within this program's grasp.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at West Virginia. Over at The Baseball Notebook, a preview of the NL West went up earlier today, completing a three-day run through the National League. AL picks start tomorrow. 

The Road To Indy: Michigan State

Tom Izzo arrives in Indianapolis to celebrate one of his finest coaching jobs and to take aim at winning a second straight NCAA championship. The last time the Spartans were in this city for the Final Four, they were a top-heavy favorite to win it all and cut down the nets with a win over Florida in 2000. This time they come in a little different. They've done with blue smoke and mirrors--good coaching, clutch shooting and the break of a friendly tournament draw to make it here for the sixth time in Izzo's illustrious career.

Michigan State's December gave no indications of impending greatness. They beat Gonzaga, but lost to North Carolina and Texas, both losses that look much worse in the rearview mirror than they did when one first drove by. They also lost to Florida at home, a defeat that is hardly emblemetic of a team about to rise to the top. But when Big Ten play came, they found another gear. It wasn't spectacular, but it was ruthlessly consistent. Playing a first-half conference schedule built on home games and winnable road ones, they rolled out to a 9-0 start and a three-game lead. They still had tough road trips ahead of them, but with this kind of cushion it was all but over. Or so this writer thought.

A trip to Wisconsin brought their first Big Ten loss. That was no shame, but more alarming was the fact Kalin Lucas sprained his ankle. With their star point guard and defending league MVP either on the shelf or playing in recover mode, MSU lost two more, at Illinois and home against Purdue and their lead in the standings was gone in the blink of an eye. A home loss to Ohio State seemed to have ended their title hopes and foreshadowed an early March exit.

The Spartans got some justice with a late-season trip to West Lafayette with their Big Ten hopes in the balance. This was the first game Purdue played without Robbie Hummel, and Lucas was fully integrated back into the MSU lineup. They got a grinding 53-44 win and it set them up to finish in a three-way tie for the conference championship. Nonetheless, after an overtime loss in the tournament to Minnesota, Sparty still had the feel of a team that just didn't quite have it this year.

Nothing that happened in the first round really changed any minds, as State struggled past New Mexico State. Then the first break came on their day off before the second round. Kansas was knocked out one step before they could draw the Maryland-Michigan State winner. Living here in Baltimore, I heard people at the office talking excitedly about the Terps not having to face Kansas. Turned out they didn't get to face Northern Iowa either. Michigan State hit a three-pointer at the buzzer to win 85-83, but Lucas was again lost to injury, this time a calf that knocked him out the rest of the tournament. NIU was a manageable opponent and MSU advanced, but surely #2 seed Ohio State would end their run, right? Wrong. The Buckeyes were knocked out by Tennessee, another opponent that was manageable for a shorthanded team. Michigan State took full advantage of the opportunity and won again.

Now another opportunity presents itself. Instead of Syracuse or Kansas State, they get to play Butler in Saturday's first national sem-final. Izzo will run a three-guard offense with Durrell Summers, Chris Allen and Korie Lucious, the latter playing in Lucas' stead. Summers is the top scorer in the group, although Lucious showed what he could do as the hero of the Maryland game. Michigan State is not a big team, with Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe both being more small forward types. Only Draymond Green, a tough rebounder, is a true inside man and he comes off the bench. They do it with finesse, and they do it with coaching and teamwork. Last year's finalist had a healthy Lucas and a physical center in Goran Suton. This year's edition of MSU doesn't have any of that. But they still have the man on the sideline and they still have fate smiling on them in its choice of opponents and that's a potent combination in March.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at Butler. And The Baseball Notebook continues its preseason picks with the NL Central today.