The College Football Notebook

Bowls Vs. Brackets

The question of whether college football should go to playoff system—and if so to what format—is a subject that gets way too much attention during the course of the season. But it’s become the sport’s equivalent of what health care reform is to a politician—it might not be your prime issue, but if you want to be relevant you better weigh in on the subject. And since this will be the last column before we come back next week with actual games to talk about, I thought it would be an opportune time to lay out my own thoughts on the whole Bowls vs. Brackets saga.

I am generally a traditionalist on most subjects and this one is no exception. For the most part, I like the current structure with its heavy emphasis on regular season success. But at the same time one cannot deny clear flaws in the current system that must be fixed, and one can also not deny the obvious desire in the public at-large to see a few more teams get a shot at the big prize. Therefore, I’m going to lay out two separate proposals. The first one is my ideal system. The second is a compromise format, one that was hammered out last fall with three friends—two of which are strong playoff supporters and another who shares my sympathies with the bowls.

IF I WERE KING

College football was never better than when each conference had a clear tie-in to a major bowl game. When playing in the Big Ten or Pac-10 meant winning the Rose Bowl was a part of your DNA. Or winning the Sugar Bowl if you were in the SEC. Those ties still exist, but they are looser now. More important, it’s no longer the ultimate prize for those leagues. In the old system, those schools could aspire to the national title, but it was going to end in their home bowl regardless. In the new order, playing in the Rose or Sugar is by definition a consolation prize, one step short of the BCS National Championship Game.

The sport still needed a championship event that everyone could circle on their calendar at the start of the season. So why not combine the two? Have all the major bowls be paired up with their tie-ins (The Big 12 to the Fiesta, the ACC to the Orange, in addition to the two games cited above). Play them all on New Year’s Day, restoring January 1 to its status as the great showcase of college football. When it’s over, pick the top two teams and have them play off in a National Championship Game on the off-weekend prior to the Super Bowl. If it was doable, we could even play the national championship game in the same city as the Super Bowl and turn one town into the focal point of the football world for two straight weeks.

This system preserves what I see as the two essential points of any postseason structure—continued emphasis on regular season excellence and conference championships, and the New Year’s Day showcase. It would also heal what I see as the key weaknesses we currently have. The first is that there’s no good way to deal with the midmajor teams. The postseason success of Utah and Boise State in recent years makes it impossible to just dismiss these teams. But at the same time, I can’t go along with just slotting an unbeaten midmajor into a national title game, given how much weaker their conferences are top-to-bottom. But give one of these teams a shot at a major conference champion, let them win, and then I’m all for giving Cinderella its ultimate shot. The second point is related to the first, and it’s that the bowls would give us a clear appreciation for who the best conferences really are, making it easier to evaluate the three or four teams that would have a case to play for all the marbles. Right now we have to decide that at the end of the regular season, based on only a handful of games that are really valid measuring sticks. Just quoting a league’s non-conference record doesn’t tell us much. The games have to feature comparable teams. The bowl matchups come reasonably close to doing that.

THE ECUMENICAL SPIRIT

In the age of Obama, we’re uniters, not dividers, so let’s look at a system that would give pro-playoff people the bracketed system they desire, while preserving my two key essentials of emphasis on conference championships and a New Year’s Day feast.

It would be an eight-team tournament whose quarterfinals would be on January 1. Game times would be (all times EST), 11 AM, 2:30 PM, 6 PM & 9:30 PM. The early game would be scheduled on the East Coast, the latter on the West Coast. Semi-finals can come one week later. The NFL playoffs will be in full gear, but there are free time slots at 1 PM ET on Saturday and prime-time on Sunday. As with my initial proposal, the championship is scheduled the week prior to the Super Bowl.

Automatic bids go to the six BCS conferences, just as they do now (Personally, I don’t see why the Big East has higher standing than the Mountain West, but we’ll leave that for another time). Any midmajor team that is undefeated qualifies automatically. Criteria would be set up for Notre Dame to determine if they qualify. Last year this would have taken care of the two remaining spots in the field, as Utah and Boise State would have been automatics.

But most years there will be at least one, and possibly two at-large spots still open. Here was the sticking point in most negotiations on the topic. I remain unalterably opposed to second-place teams playing for the national title. But what if a team that missed on its league’s automatic bid has a legitimate claim as the best in its own backyard? Ohio State was co-champ of the Big Ten last season. USC was very nearly a co-champ in the Pac-10 and non-qualifier until Oregon State lost its finale. For the superconferences who play a championship game there’s a different dynamic. What about a team that has the best record in its league, but lost its championship game. A prominent example here would be 2005 Virginia Tech, at 10-1, who lost to 7-4 Florida State. Should one loss on a neutral field immediately disqualify them? Particularly when they may still have a better conference record than the league champion, even after such a loss? Or take Texas’ case last year. They lost their Big 12 division title based on a BCS vote to break a three-way tie. The tie had to be broken somehow and the way it was done was fair enough, but not even the most hard-core purist can possibly argue that the ‘Horns lost their conference championship on the field.

So the remaining two spots in an eight-team tourney can be filled out that way—ideally, an undefeated midmajor team. Short of that, co-champs from the Big Ten or Pac-10 or teams with the best league records in the ACC, Big 12 or SEC that happened to lose their conference championship game or lose a divisional tiebreaker.

Either system would represent improvement over the current system. But in the meantime, let’s not overlook all the excitement that does exist under what we have now. For that reason, The College Football Notebook won’t be harping on this all season long. Come Thursday night, it’s time for some football.

Up Next: Week 1 Previews on Wednesday
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BCS Overview & Predictions

Throughout August, the Notebook has taken up each conference for review and made a pick on who’s going to win it. The Recent Posts archive on the righthand side will take to you any of them quickly. This column will be devoted to tying it all together and making final predictions on how the major bowl matchups will shake out and who will ultimately win the national championship. To briefly review each conference, including both the pick for first place and the four at-large selections to BCS bowl games:

Big East: Rutgers gets the edge. They closed last season strong, winning their last six, including the Papajohns.com Bowl over an equally hot N.C. State. The Scarlet Knights return their entire offensive line and are very deep at running back. The defense has nine starters who are upper classmen, and even new quarterback Dominic Natale is a senior. In a balanced league, Greg Schiano has everything he needs to win a championship and it starts on Labor Day against defending titlist Cincinnati.

ACC: The conference that re-defined wild and crazy a year ago is again up for grabs, with no fewer than eight teams having legitimate title aspirations and only Duke being hopeless. I’m calling North Carolina to dethrone Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division and then beat rival N.C. State in the championship game. The Tar Heels have virtually all of their people back on both lines, and all their linebackers. T.J. Yates provides veteran leadership at quarterback and Butch Davis is a proven winner at the college level.

Big Ten: A three-team race, as Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State separate themselves from overrated Penn State and several other mediocrities. It’s Iowa who prevails in the race for first place. The Hawks are going to be very strong defensively, they return junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi and have an experienced offensive line. They need to replace running back Shonn Greene, but that’s something a Kirk Ferentz program is ideally situated to do. Ohio State is good enough to again be chosen for a major bowl game, but inexperience at linebacker is the signature weakness that’s just enough to hold them back.

SEC: Florida is an overwhelming favorite in the nation’s best conference. The entire defense is back, Tebow is back and that adds up to another championship. Ole Miss wins the West, beating out Alabama thanks to Jevan Snead at quarterback representing a significant edge over Greg McElroy. But the Rebels falter to the Gators in the conference title game, and Georgia sneaks past them for at-large selection to the BCS. The Bulldogs are stronger defensively and—just as important—the BCS selectors tend to prefer teams who did *not* lose a December championship game if they can avoid it. That gives the edge to the second-place team from the East over the first-place team from the West in determining who joins Florida on the big stage.

Big 12: It’s another three-team race out of the South. This year it’s Oklahoma State, rather than Texas Tech who joins Texas and Oklahoma in the hunt for conference and national honors. The Longhorns get the nod. OU has only one starter on the offensive line back and that spells the difference. It also knocks them behind Oklahoma State in the race for the at-large bid. The Cowboys' only weakness is that just one starter in the secondary is back, but with three of the first-stringers being seniors, they will have enough experience to get a major bowl invite.

Pac-10: USC may have to replace most of its defense, but there is no one in this league ready to step up and challenge them. Offensively, I expect them to replace Mark Sanchez without missing a beat. Will they have enough defense and mental focus to avoid tripping up in a league game and to beat Ohio State? That’s the only real question. Whether they will again finish in first place is not.

MidMajors: For the fourth straight year, we’ll have a party crasher at the BCS ball. This time around it’s Nevada. Chris Ault has a high-powered offense led by Colin Kaepernick at quarterback and supported by two outstanding running backs in Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. The defense is strong up front and in the secondary. Just as important, the schedule is balanced. The opener at Notre Dame and the finale against Boise State will get the Wolfpack the media attention they need, without being so strong as to be unwinnable.

Other: Notre Dame will improve slightly, but not to BCS level. Navy and Air Force are worthy of respect and a bowl, but are not national contenders.

That leaves us with these ten teams to fill the spots in the four major games (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose), plus the BCS National Championship Game, held in Pasadena on January 7:

Rutgers
North Carolina
Iowa
Ohio State
Florida
Georgia
Texas
Oklahoma State
USC
Nevada

In making my national championship picks, I feel a little like the Frank Sinatra-portrayed character Nathan Detroit in the classic gambling comedy film Guys & Dolls. Sinatra asked for danish at his favorite pastry shop, and was told they only had cheesecake and streusel, due to their popularity. Detroit confides to his henchmen that he wants to be different “Everyone’s on cheesecake and streusel. Make me feel like I’m playing a favorite.” One can only imagine how the mythical Nathan Detroit might react to the national championship landscape this season. Florida and Texas have emerged as the cheesecake and streusel when it comes to picking who will get to Pasadena. Oklahoma and USC are the only other teams remotely mentioned.

I share Detroit’s distaste for riding the favorites, but we also have to deal with reality. The ‘Horns and Gators are decisively the best two teams in the country. College football is a world that favors the traditional powers and surprises are fewer here than any other sport. I’ve already dismissed Oklahoma from the entire BCS party and USC’s defense is just too young. No one else has anywhere close to the raw talent level of Texas & Florida.

Complete selection procedures for slotting everyone else in the four major bowls can be found here. I’ll take them up in more detail as the season goes on. For now, here’s how my projected field would likely match up:

Orange: North Carolina--Ohio State
Fiesta: Oklahoma State--Nevada
Sugar: Georgia--Rutgers
Rose: USC--Iowa

Coming back to the Texas-Florida showdown, I will part company with established wisdom when it comes to who will end up on top of the heap. I think UT has a superior running game and beats Florida head-to-head. The last time a team got this close to a repeat national title was 2005. USC came to Pasadena with a stud quarterback and went home as only second-best. History repeats itself in ’09 as Mack Brown wins his second national championship.

Up Next: Bowls Vs. Brackets on Saturday
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Shaking Down The Thunder

Notre Dame has played in exactly three major bowl games since Lou Holtz left campus following the 1996 season. They have lost all three in decisive fashion. They haven’t won a big bowl since 1993. They are no longer even the premier Catholic football program in the country, that honor having been taken over by Boston College. Therefore, it can be seen as a strange editorial decision by The College Football Notebook to wrap up its conference previews by making Notre Dame the focal point of the final feature, while legitimate national contenders like Florida, Texas and USC share space with their conference brethren.

This approach is reflective of three key facts—first, there’s really no other good way to do it. If this were the late 1980s when Miami, Florida State and Penn State joined the Irish as power independents, they’d all be dealt with in the same section. The Fighting Irish are the last independent that aspires to big-time status. Second, Notre Dame does retain a certain cultural hold on a large segment of college football fans, a reality that’s given them their NBC contract. Third, the Notebook believes in acknowledging its biases. And while I’m not a hard-core Notre Dame fan (Wisconsin is the girl I truly love), I am an Irish Catholic who is on the pro-ND side of the aisle and think college football is more fun when the Irish are in the national mix. So Notre Dame is the lead, in which I will also touch on Army & Navy. And for the sake of keeping the rivalries of Church & State in perfect balance, I’ll give a little extra attention to Boston College & Air Force as well.

Charlie Weis is under the gun this year. He barely survived a 6-6 finish in 2008 that included a humiliating and inexcusable home loss to Syracuse in November. A bowl victory of Hawaii soothed some wounds and at least the Irish no longer have a bowl losing streak hanging over the head (they hadn’t won a bowl of any prestige level since that ’93 Cotton triumph over Texas A&M). But Weis needs a minimum of eight wins for a return to even be on the table for 2010 and you can argue that he needs a BCS bid to be truly secure.

He has the offense to make that happen. Jimmy Clausen is now a junior and in his third year as a starter. He’s the real deal and will have the support to have a big year. The offensive line is experienced and Armando Allen will plenty of room to run. Kyle Rudolph makes for an inviting target at tight end. A little re-tooling is needed at the wideouts, but nothing so serious that Weis can’t make it happen.

The defense is what will determine Notre Dame’s fate. They haven’t been tough against the run, and I don’t see that 2009 will be any different. Only three starters return in the front seven and freshmen will start on the interior. The secondary should be adequate, but after a few years of hearing that Weis had great recruiting classes on the way, the pressure is going to be on young players to deliver.. Notre Dame is going to have to win shootouts if they are to have the kind of year their coach needs.

One such shootout awaits them in the season opener against Nevada. I think they will lose this game (see column below, which projects a Nevada BCS run). The media and the alumni will go into hysterics if the Irish indeed lose at home to the Wolfpack, but it would be far more troubling if they lost at home to Boston College, or even if they lost on the road at Michigan or Pitt. In the end, I think the Irish get to 7-8 wins, which constitutes slight improvement and puts their coach squarely on the bubble.

If nothing else, ND’s status as the top Catholic program in America should return this year. Boston College took a stand for loyalty in firing Jeff Jagodzinski for even looking at other jobs. Stands on principle are admirable and I’m all for them, but we have to be realistic about what they mean in terms of bottom line results. In 2005 the Philadelphia Eagles took a stand against Terrell Owens released him. They collapsed and missed the playoffs. In 2008, the New York Giants took a stand and benched Plaxico Burress. They lost their big-play capability and were ousted in the second round. The ’08 Boston Red Sox took a stand and traded Manny Ramirez. They came up a run short of the World Series. The message is clear: stands on principle are noble precisely because they cost you something, and it will cost BC more than a few wins on the football field this year.

Just outside my hometown north of Baltimore is the Naval Academy. The Midshipmen are a thriving football program these days. Paul Johnson took the wishbone to Georgia Tech, but he was replaced by Ken Numatalolo and the Middies didn’t miss a beat. They went to another bowl game last year before losing to Wake Forest. The top runners are gone this season, but quarterback Ricky Dobbs is still on hand to run the triple option. The defense returns quite a bit and is laden with upperclassmen. If Ohio State isn’t ready for Navy’s visit on September 5 (USC comes to Columbus one week later), the Midshipmen could shock the nation. If nothing else, I expect that season opener, to be closer than the betting markets think it will be. And Navy has a real shot to upset Pitt on the road two weeks later. We can also circle their November 14 trip to South Bend. Regardless of how these showcase games turn out, Navy will end another winning season by beating Army on December 12 in Philadelphia.

Army is on very hard times. They went 3-9 last year and have brought in Rich Ellerson from Cal-Poly to take over as head coach. Ellerson ran the triple option there, and would have pulled off a mammoth road upset of Wisconsin last year had it not been for three missed extra points. But he has no offensive line to speak of and any success at West Point won’t happen this year.

Air Force will joust with Navy for the Commander-in-Chief trophy. The Falcons are coming off an 8-4 season and return sophomore quarterback Tim Jefferson, who was the MWC’s Freshman of the Year. Another team that runs the triple option, Air Force will start five seniors on the offensive front. It will be the trenches on the other side that will hold them back. A strong secondary makes them competitive in the Mountain West, but I expect the Falcons to lose at Navy on October 3 and to come in third or fourth in conference. Another bowl bid will still be there as a consolation prize.

Up Next: Complete BCS Overview & Projections on Wednesday
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Mid-Major Muscle

The mid-majors are on the map in big-time college football these days. Three straight years, one of their number has crashed the BCS party. In two of those years (2006 & 2008) they have come out on top. One of those was Boise State’s win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, a game on anyone’s short list of the best college games this decade. The second was Utah’s shocking win over Alabama last January 2. The Mountain West Conference, home to a trio of powers in Utah, BYU and TCU used its newfound muscle to try and push their way into either an automatic BCS slot or a new national playoff system. They fell short, but between the publicity this endeavor got, and the recent on-field success of the mid-majors, the chances one of them will land another BCS bowl bid have only increased as we enter into 2009.

Who are the likely party crashers? The conferences that fall in the mid-major category are the aforementioned MWC, the Mid-American Conference (MAC), the Western Athletic Conference (WAC, home of Boise State), the Sun Belt and Conference USA. The College Football Notebook will admit to some power conference bias, by acknowledging that I’m not going to cover all these conferences in-depth, but only based on the likelihood of their entering the BCS party. So this overview will only look at teams that either the national media has designated as a contender, or that I myself think has the tools to make a major run.

We’ll open the conversation in the Moutain West, where Utah remains front and center on everyone’s mind. The Utes are going to have a good team, but Kyle Whittingham has enough holes to plug that I really can’t see them pulling off the 11-1 or 12-0 season it will take to scale the heights again. They have a new quarterback in Corbin Louks, and three tough road games. They go to Oregon on September 19, and must visit TCU and BYU within the league. They have enough on hand to win the conference and get its automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl, but that’s about it. As for their rivals, TCU is very inexperienced in both lines and will not survive back-to-back September road games against ACC schools Virginia and Clemson. BYU will put points on the board with Max Hall pulling the trigger, but only one returning offensive lineman is not the sign of a team about to rip off a 12-0 season.

Boise State went 12-0 last year, and ranked high enough to qualify for a BCS game, but were angled out by Utah. The Broncos subsequently lost the Poinsettia Bowl, natural home of the WAC champ, to TCU, and expectations are high for the boys of the blue turf. But a third perfect regular season in four years is not in the cards. They start five sophomores in the front seven and replace all their skill people. Chris Peterson’s offense will still be fun to watch, as last year’s WAC Freshman of the Year, southpaw quarterback Kellen Moore returns, but their BCS hopes could be over before they even start. Boise plays Oregon on September 3, part of a doubleheader package that will open the season on a Thursday night. Another WAC team to watch is Louisiana Tech (please don’t ask me to explain that geography lesson), but they have a road game at Auburn to open the season and another at LSU in November. Also don’t underestimate the danger in their September 12 trip to Navy, a game that could trip them up even if they do upset Auburn the previous week.

East Carolina won Conference USA last year and went to the Liberty Bowl. They started the season strong with upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia before a three-game hiccup took them off the national radar. They’ve got the horses to make a run at the national stage with experience in both trenches and senior Patrick Pinkney back calling the signals. But with road games at West Virginia (September 12) and North Carolina (September 19) this is another Cinderella story that I don’t see making it out of the opening month. Nor is the Pirates’ conference rival Tulsa likely to pull it off, being soft up front and having a road trip to Oklahoma to deal with. But an October game between Tulsa and Boise State could be interesting as college football’s equivalent of the “Bracket Buster” series that’s been put together in college hoops.

In the Sun Belt, Troy has all the talent to dominate most of its competition, and senior quarterback Levi Brown could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate. But the schedule isn’t strong enough for them to do it unless they go 12-0. One loss will knock them out and there is no way they are going to win at Florida on September 12. Similarly, over in the MAC , Central Michigan is interesting, but not tough enough to win at Michigan State.

So is all hope for Cinderalla lost? I’ve knocked down virtually every contender. Except one. Chris Ault’s team in Nevada will be on the NBC radar to open the season on September 5 at Notre Dame. They return the WAC’s Offensive Player of the Year in junior running back Tai Taua and the 2007 rushing champ Luke Lippincott. Talk about depth. They have three-year starter Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. They have an experienced defensive front. There are weaknesses—a freshman starter at right guard and another at safety. But they offer the best balance of talent and marquee games, while keeping the schedule manageable. Look for the Wolfpack to beat Notre Dame to open the year, to beat Boise State to end it and to win everything in between. Nevada will be the fourth different midmajor team in four years to crash the BCS.

Up Next: Notre Dame & The Academies (Thursday)
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Pac-10 Preview

It’s all about USC in the Pac-10, as the nation’s most visible program aims at its eighth straight conference championship. After winning three consecutive Rose Bowls in blowout fashion, they’ve also become bored with beating up on the Big Ten and are hungry to return to the national championship game. Pasadena will host the BCS’ showcase event on January 7, in the game’s first return since the Trojans lost that 41-38 epic to Texas back in 2005.

For USC, it’s always been about focus. Their performance in big games is extraordinary, and their fans constantly point to that as the reason pollsters should ignore all else and vote them into the national championship game. But a season is more than just its biggest moments and true championship teams take preparation seriously each time out. They do not lose to UCLA when a win locks up a championship game berth (2006). They do not lose games at home to Stanford (2007). They do not lose to Oregon State when they’ve had ten days to get ready and the entire nation is viewing the game as an opportunity for you to show your focus (2008). USC has done all these things. Will 2009 be different?

There’s a ton of rebuilding to do on defense. Like virtually the entire unit. It’s easy to say that USC recruits so well that it’s just replacing talent with more talent. And clearly the loss of ten starters isn’t going to turn them into Arizona. But it’s still preferable to have people back rather than rebuild, and a new defense is enough to justify putting you behind the other national elites. They must also replace Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Here, I am more optimistic. Trojan quarterbacks have been mostly products of the system and with an experienced offensive line and the exceptionally talented Joe McKnight in the backfield, the new signal caller will have no problem putting points on the board. If the Trojans have a big year, it will have to be circa ’05, when Matt Leinhart, Reggie Bush & Co., covered for a shaky defense and outgunned Notre Dame, Fresno State and the rest of the schedule until it finally caught up to them against Texas.

Cal, Oregon and UCLA are getting the most attention among the wanna-be challengers. Cal is the one for whom the good press is most justified. Kevin Kiley is back behind center, and Pac-10 rushing champ Jahvid Best will carry the load in the backfield. The defense is strong up front and in the secondary. A revamped offensive line makes it impractical to pick them to break the Trojan lock, but the folks in Berkley should have a nice season ahead.

Oregon capped off a 9-3 year by outgunning Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl, and this program’s consistent success in recent years accounts for their positive media attention. But Mike Belotti has stepped down as head coach, and they are very young on both lines. The Ducks are not a credible challenger in this league and will have to fight just to make a bowl game. In the case of UCLA, I don’t know that they have a perception as a serious threat to the Trojans, but the presence of Rick Neuheisel has certainly raised their profile in Los Angeles. In a town dominated by Pete Carroll, Kobe Bryant, Manny Ramirez, Joe Torre and the Angels, Neuheisel is a potential star. But he needs a football team to make that happen and the ’09 Bruins aren’t it. They start two freshman on the offensive line, a freshman at quarterback and are soft at linebacker. After a 4-8 year last season, just breaking even this year would be a major victory.

While no one is truly a serious challenger to the Trojans, Oregon State and Arizona will join Cal in at least being a threat to spring an upset if USC comes in with its fabled lack of focus. Oregon State won an ugly 3-0 Sun Bowl game over Pitt (and I thought the state championship game my ’87 high school team played was the only contest to end with that score). In spite of that performance, they will score points in 2009, led by senior quarterback Lyle Moevao. They will also give them up, as most of the defense is rebuilt. In the end, they can at least match last year’s 8-4 mark. Meanwhile, Arizona will be the reverse. They can D it up, but will have problems scoring points. And in the end should get to 7-8 wins.

Stanford and Arizona State have decent reputations, as the Sun Devils made a spirited run at a BCS game back in 2007, while the Cardinal pulled the aforementioned upset of USC and have a fiery coach in Jim Harbaugh. ASU should improve on last year’s disappointing 5-7 finish and get back to the bowl party this year. Dennis Erickson breaks in a new senior quarterback, Danny Sullivan, and if he plays like a veteran, his defense can carry him. Stanford is going to struggle. They have little experience across the board and have a freshman QB in Andrew Luck. Their September 12 trip to Wake Forest will be a benchmark for what we can expect.

Washington and Washington State were once good programs. The Huskies won a national championship back in 1991, and won the Rose Bowl in 2000. WSU shared the league crown in 2002 with USC and went to Pasadena. Both are among the worst in the country today, and are going nowhere this season.

USC fans often get upset at the fact that they are penalized heavily in the BCS voting for a single loss, while schools like Florida, Texas and Oklahoma get more leeway. But this brief overview should show why. There’s no team in this league good enough to beat the Trojans if they are even playing at 75 percent capacity. They don’t have a conference championship game to deal with. The major non-league game that’s always on the schedule is Notre Dame, and lately the Irish have been—at best—no different than the midlevel teams in the Pac-10. So it boils down to this—USC must rev it up to win at Ohio State in September and they play to 75-80 percent capacity in their other games. Going undefeated is not an unreasonable expectation if they wish to play for all the marbles on January 7.

Up Next: Mid-Major Muscle on Wednesday
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Big 12 Preview

The Big 12 South was the focal point of the nation a year ago. Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech were all in position, at one point or another, to get into the BCS National Championship Game. The Sooners actually did get there, and quarterbacks Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford and Graham Harrell joined Tim Tebow at the center of the Heisman debate. Harrell is gone, and Tech is expected to fall back to the pack, but the Big 12 South is again getting a lot of attention as the 2009 season starts.

The division is tough, but I think it is also overrated. Oklahoma loses a lot and simply bringing Bradford back isn’t enough to make them a national title contender. The Sooners lose four starters on the offensive line and will start a freshman at center. They should be okay defensively and combined with Bradford, this will make them a good team, capable of reaching a big bowl game. But another run at the big prize is asking too much.

I have no such qualms about Texas, who not only returns McCoy, but gets their O-Line back intact. There’s some replacement work to do on the front seven, but overall I give the ‘Horns an edge on OU in a rivalry that’s one of the fiercest in the country. The big game is October 17, when these two square off in Dallas. Both programs hope it will be one of two trips to Big D, which also hosts the conference championship game in December.

A third wheel will be in the mix in the South, even if Tech is going to decline a bit. Oklahoma State is highly regarded in most preseason polls and that optimism is justified. Senior quarterback Zac Robinson will put himself into the Heisman conversation. Standout receiver Dez Bryant is one of the best in the country. The defense is tough up front and at linebacker and the offense is strong in the trenches. The one weakness Mike Gundy’s team has is in the secondary. In a conference with these kind of quarterbacks (what are the odds we’d have ever said that about the old Big Eight or SWC prior to the merger?), that’s a big enough flaw to keep them out of the championship game. But I do think they find a way to finish ahead of their in-state rivals from Norman.

Texas Tech went through offseason turmoil, as they were faced with the possibility of losing Mike Leach over a contract dispute with the administration. Leach is back and must deal with the reality of having lost most of his lineman on both sides of the ball, along with Harrell, the man I would have voted for in the Heisman race. Baylor and Texas A&M are both teams that went 4-8 last year and show no signs of getting any better this season.

The North Division is the weak sister in this league and none of their teams could finish in the top half of the South. But there will still be interesting football, including a resurgent Nebraska. The Cornhuskers won the Gator Bowl last season and they have a little defensive re-tooling to do, enough so that they are not an elite team. But they are respectable up front and that will make them respectable in the final standings. Nebraska makes a non-conference road trip to Virginia Tech on September 19, an opportunity to dramatically heighten Big 12 prestige as well as their own recovery.

A storied program in Lincoln being on the way back is the best storyline in the North, but they are not yet the best football team. Kansas brings back Todd Reesing behind center and all his weapons are in place, led by receiver Dezmon Briscoe. Reesing will be the fourth Heisman contender out of this quarterback-rich league. The offensive line must be rebuilt and for me, that’s enough of a reason to say they can’t win the league championship. But in this watered-down division, a great quarterback and a veteran defense are enough to get them to Dallas on December 5.

Missouri has won the North two straight years and gotten smoked by Oklahoma for the championship both times. Last year was a disappointment, as the Tigers were supposed to contend for national honors, rather than simply back into a weak division crown (they only went 5-3 in conference play) and then take a 62-21 shellacking from OU. Mizzou went on to need overtime to win its bowl game against Northwestern. With Chase Daniel departed along with the offensive coordinator and most of the defense, there’s some major rebuilding ahead for Gary Pinkel.

Kansas State and Iowa State are the other teams with a feasible hope of stealing first place. Veteran coach Bill Snyder has come out of retirement to prevent K-State from falling into obscurity. Snyder won the Big 12 back in 2003 when he shocked top-ranked OU in the title game and he took the ‘Cats to BCS games twice in his career. With only five defensive starters back, there’s not enough for him to win big, but it’s enough to at least give a vet coach a puncher’s chance to steal a division that’s anyone’s for the taking. Iowa State is weak in the secondary, but will be adequate everywhere else. Again, it doesn’t take much to at least have a chance on this side of the draw, where only Colorado looks truly hopeless.

It all adds up to another top-heavy year in the Big 12, as the action centers around the three big programs in the South. Look for Texas to win the division and administer the obligatory thrashing of Kansas in the championship game. I like Oklahoma State to pick up an at-large bid to the BCS, while OU settles for the Cotton Bowl. Will Texas get over the hump and play for the national championship? That’s something I’ll look at after the conference previews are done and it’s all coalesced into national predictions. But surely, just taking their revenge on Oklahoma will soothe a lot of wounds in Austin.

Up Next: Pac-10 on Friday
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SEC Preview

The SEC carries the reputation as the nation’s premier conference, and with the last three national championships under their belt, who’s to argue? In the BCS era, going back to 1998, the conference has had three different schools win it all (Florida, LSU, Tennessee) and fourth (Auburn) enjoy an unrewarded perfect season. The SEC is not without its blemishes—for all the rhetoric about their dominance of the Big Ten in national championship games, the SEC is actually 3-5 in the two leagues' annual New Year’s rivalry in the Outback & Capital One Bowls since 2005. But as we enter another season, the Southeastern Conference looks like it will again be at the head of the class—dare we say, they might almost be as good as their fans think they are.

Discussion here and throughout the country begins and ends with defending national champion Florida. The Gators not only return Tim Tebow, but the entire defense and most of the offensive line is back in the fold. They have some skill people to replace, most notably Percy Harvin at receiver, but does anyone think Urban Meyer can’t just plug some new pieces into place and keep the machine cranking? Tebow is after a historic second Heisman Trophy and third national title in his career, and everything is in place for him to make that happen.

There’s no serious competition to deny Florida the Eastern Division title, but Georgia has everything needed to make a run at a major bowl game. The Bulldogs were overrated at this time last year, when they were #1 in the country despite a very young offensive line. That line is back with some experience now and senior Joe Cox is stepping in to take the place of the equally overrated Matthew Stafford. The Dawgs are flying a little bit under the radar, and they would be a threat to win this conference’s other division, indeed most other conferences in the country.

Tennessee’s new coach Lane Kiffin, has made a lot of noise in the offseason with his attacks on Urban Meyer and other conference coaches. At least Kiffin has the horses to back up some of his talk. The Vols have four senior starters on the offensive front, an upperclassmen-laden front seven on defense and a senior at quarterback. Tennessee should return to a bowl game this season and is a serious contender to play on January 1.

Rounding out the division, Vanderbilt will be ready to make some noise, with every starter on both lines back and a pretty good secondary. This is another team that will be underrated because of inexperience at quarterback and receiver, but it’s easy to see the Commodores getting to eight wins this season. That’s a job that will be made easier by the hard fall that’s awaiting Steve Spurrier at South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a poor secondary and are inexperienced up front. Kentucky is another team with serious problems on defense.

As we go over to the other side of the conference, Alabama is the media favorite to win this division and set up a rematch in Atlanta with Florida for the championship. But I do not see the Tide as a serious threat to go all the way this year. The defense will again be strong, anchored by Terrence Cody and Brandon Deadrick up front. But there’s some work to do rebuilding the offensive line. The fact Nick Saban is plugging upperclassmen into the starting roles will certainly help, and the Tide are a strong team, but I don’t see them in Florida’s class.

And ‘Bama has a serious threat within its own division coming from Ole Miss. Recall that the Rebs beat Florida in Gainesville last year and ended the campaign by nailing Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Jevan Snead is back behind center and he’s still got Shay Hodge to play catch with and Dexter McCluster to hand the ball too. The defense is strong, particularly in the secondary. Key divisional games against Alabama (October 10) and LSU (November 21) are at home. If this sounds like a trumpet for the Rebels to win their first division title since the SEC expanded in 1992, that’s what it is. It’s hard to picture Ole Miss playing on the first weekend of December, but this is the second year of the Houston Nutt reign here, and we know he was able to get Arkansas to that level.

Speaking of the Hogs, they have enough in the cupboard to make sure this is not just a two-team race for the division. I like sophomore quarterback Ryan Mallet, a transfer who left Michigan after Rich Rodriguez arrived with his spread offense. The defensive line is back intact and the offensive line should be able to clear a path for Michael Smith. I don’t know that I like Bobby Petrino enough, either personally or professionally, to pick him to win big in a genuinely tough conference, but the Hogs will test the top teams and win enough to make a Cotton Bowl bid (the reward that goes to the top West team after the BCS and Capital One Bowls have made their picks) a viable hope.

I hate writing off LSU too quickly. This is a program only two years removed from a national title and they humiliated Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-a-Bowl to end last season. But there is just too much rebuilding on defense to do to envision them getting any higher than a midlevel bowl. Auburn made a foolish decision in getting rid of Tommy Tuberville and I don’t believe Gene Chizik is up to the task of winning in this conference. Mississippi State is another team with an entire defense to rebuild and first-year coach Dan Mullen will have his hands full just trying to win a conference game.

There are four at-large bids to BCS bowl games, after the automatic bids to the six conference champs are awarded. If not for a rule that prohibits a league from getting more than one at-large bid, it would be easy to see the SEC grabbing up two or three of them, as Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss are all at that level. But none are at Florida’s level. While it’s realistic to see the Gators losing a game, it’s unimaginable to think they will be denied another conference championship.

Up Next: Big 12 on Wednesday
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Big Ten Preview

The Big Ten has a three-year old PR problem. The perception is that the conference isn’t capable of competing with the best other leagues have to offer. True, the perception is built exclusively around performances against the SEC champ and USC—hardly a fair cross-section for any one—but no matter. In a world where the media judges conferences by national championships and Big Ten teams by how they do in the Rose Bowl, the venerable league is struggling and until something decisive happens to reverse that, it’s going to hurt Jim Delaney’s conference in BCS voting this year.

Both the problems and possibilities for the Big Ten on the national stage start with Ohio State. For five years running the Buckeyes have either won the league outright or shared first place. And while the defense must replace luminaries like James Laurinatis and Malcolm Jenkins, and the offense has to come up with a new running back in place of Chris Wells, this team is again going to be at least in the top two. Sophomore quarterback Terrell Pryor is potentially sensational and has almost a full year of starting experience under his belt. The offensive lines in Columbus are always strong, and while Wells was explosive, he was also injury-prone. Daniel Herron is going to be a good replacement. The defensive front and secondary will be very tough. The only thing holding them back is a possible dearth at receiver. That won’t prevent them from returning to a major bowl game, but it may keep them out of the Big Ten and national titles that are this program’s ultimate goal. In the short-term, OSU can solve the problems of perception when Southern Cal comes to town on September 13.

Penn State was USC’s whipping boy last year in Pasadena and the Lions are highly regarded in most preseason polls again this year. But I don’t see it happening in Happy Valley. The offensive line and secondary are young, both heavy on new sophomore starters. Daryl Clark’s return at quarterback and Evan Royster coming back as the top runner are creating expectations that the team overall isn’t ready to live up to. This is a middle-of-the-pack team in 2009.

The challenges to Ohio State are going to come out of Iowa City and East Lansing. Michigan State jumped up and won nine games a year ago, earning a Capital One Bowl bid on New Year’s Day as a result. While there’s some re-tooling to do at the skill positions, the offensive line is in reasonably good shape and the defense is going to be tough. Disciplinarian Mark Dantonio runs the show with an iron fist here, and the days of the flaky Spartans who couldn’t be counted on to show up are over. Going with a sophomore quarterback in Kirk Cousins makes them a risky bet to win the conference, but they have a shot at returning to the New Year’s stage and even at sneaking into the BCS as an at-large.

Iowa returned to a January 1 bowl last year, after the first dry spell of Kirk Ferentz’s tenure, and this is another fundamentally-sound coach with all the pieces in place for a title run. The defense returns most of its starters. They do need to replace Shonn Greene in the backfield, but coaching the offensive front is Ferentz’s specialty, and I see no reason to think he won’t have a quality running game. Junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi returns and will have a good supporting cast around him.

It’s typical for four Big Ten teams to earn New Year’s Day/BCS bowl bids. After the league champion, the second-place team usually gets an at-large and then the January 1 Outback and Capital One Bowls are Big Ten vs. SEC. So the race for third and fourth place is always hot. This year, the middle of the pack is being defined by two higher-profile programs that are being closely watched. Michigan caught everyone’s attention last year for all the wrong reasons, as the program collapsed after Lloyd Carr was run out of town and Rich Rodriguez was brought in. The Wolverines couldn’t handle R-Rod’s spread offense. Expectations are low in Ann Arbor, albeit not low enough to handle a repeat of last season’s 3-9 disaster. With a veteran offensive line and armed with the reality that Rodriguez can coach—he did after all, lead West Virginia close to the top—I expect UM to return to a bowl game this year and give them a decent shot at slipping into a January 1 game.

Illinois also has a head coach with some heat on him. Ron Zook was the toast of the town after leading his team to a BCS game in 2007, but the Illini fell to 5-7 last year. The offense won’t be a problem this year, with Juice Williams leading what should be an explosive unit. But this is a very vulnerable defense and Illinois fans should not aspire to much more than just getting back into any kind of bowl game. That won’t get off the heat off Zook though, particularly given his rival upstate is on the move. Northwestern won nine games last year and gave Missouri a spirited run in the Alamo Bowl. This year Pat Fitzgerald has a veteran quarterback, offensive line, secondary and linebacking corps. The Wildcats are very capable of getting into the league’s top four and I expect them to do just that, edging out the more heralded Penn State, Michigan and Illinois triumvirate for a New Year’s date.

It seems strange to have a discussion about January 1 football and not at least be mentioning Wisconsin. But the Badgers are in dangerous times right now, in the fourth year post-Barry Alvarez. They have declined each year under Bret Bielama. While that can be misleading—Bielama took over an experienced team that went 12-1 in 2006 and decline was going to happen whether he, Alvarez or Bill Belichick was calling the shots. But it doesn’t change the fact that 2008 saw UW have high expectations and low results. The heat is on Bielama and beyond the immensely talented John Clay at running back, he’s got little to really compete with. A losing season is very much a possibility here, and this Wisconsin-born writer who still loves the team, would reluctantly predict it.

Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana round out the discussion. All have some individual strengths, enough to envision a winning season, but nothing to think they would climb any higher than fifth or sixth, even if all broke right. Minny has a very talented quarterback in Adam Weber, but a completely revamped offensive line. Purdue’s secondary will be strong, but the front seven is porous. Indiana looks pretty decent, but after only one bowl appearance in fifteen years, is it really strong enough to start a bandwagon? Maybe if they beat Michigan on October 3.

Final prediction? Look for the much-maligned Big Ten to get two BCS bowl bids again, with those going to Ohio State and Iowa, while Michigan State clocks in a close third. And I’ll cut against the grain and take the Hawkeyes to win the conference championship.

Up next: SEC on Saturday
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ACC Preview

For two straight years, ACC football has been marked by a whacky path to the same ending. A lot of balance, but Virginia Tech beating Boston College in the conference championship game at the end of the day. With BC having fired coach Jeff Jagodzinski in anger, after he interviewed for other jobs, that’s likely to end, but the two themes of balance and Virginia Tech will again be at the forefront in 2009.

Balance wasn’t supposed to be the way of the world when this conference split into divisions prior to 2005. Miami and Florida State were going to be the ones that carried the superconference in its new era, and the divisions are even aligned to suit them. The ‘Noles and ‘Canes are in opposite divisions, a concession not made in the SEC or Big 12, which does its splits strictly on geography. The two powers have combined for exactly one title game appearance in eight tries (Florida State in ’05). On the Atlantic Division side, Miami has problems—they are inexperienced in the defensive front seven and breaking in their fourth defensive coordinator in the last four years. How much patience will be given Randy Shannon, now in his third year as head coach? They went 7-5 last year and got a bowl bid, and can do so again this year. But Larry Coker learned that doesn’t cut it in Coral Gables.

And while Miami has enough to be in the division race, three other teams are stronger on this side of the draw alone. Georgia Tech brought in Paul Johnson from Navy and he installed the triple-option wishbone attack. It was enough for a 9-3 season that matched Virginia Tech, only to lose the division on a tiebreaker. The Yellow Jackets were dealt a humiliating 38-3 loss by LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl though, and the defense has to be rebuilt. In a league where you can slip from first to ninth in the blink of an eye, that’s enough to raise doubts about Tech’s bowl prospects this year. Simply returning to the postseason party would have to be considered a success for Johnson in 2009.

Virginia Tech will have to deal with inexperience at the skill positions. But they have overcome a bad offense before, and they are strong on the defensive line and in the secondary. Combined with their famed special teams play, that’s enough to get them into the championship mix again. North Carolina burst onto the scene last year, as Butch Davis’ recruiting bore good fruit. The Tar Heels are going to move the ball and they are going to stop the run. The question will be if they stop the pass, with no senior starters in the secondary. The betting here is that the ‘Heels do so enough to win the division.

Over in the Atlantic Division, it’s a similar four-team race. Florida State is coming off a tumultuous offseason, where the program’s past transgressions may result in Bobby Bowden losing his place in history. It’s hard to sit here from behind a laptop and know how that’s going to effect the 2009 team, so I’ll stick with what I do know—this team will have a very good offense. The entire line is back, and so is senior quarterback Christian Ponder. The defense will be more of a challenge, and getting the front seven into shape will be the biggest on-field factor in determining if the ‘Noles will be in Tampa on December 5.

Dabo Swinney went 4-3 at Clemson after taking over as interim for Tommy Bowden, and has a pretty good team to work with. They’re not overwhelming and because of inexperience at quarterback, they’ll be under the radar, but they have a good offensive line and a good defense. Winning eight games is a very good bet, and give them an outside shot at the division if redshirt frosh Kyle Parker is ready behind center. Wake Forest is the reverse. They’ve got the QB, in senior Riley Skinner, on the short list of conference MVP candidates, but the defense is not overwhelming and that’s what will keep them from scaling the heights again.

N.C. State started slowly last year under Tom O’Brien, but the former BC mentor got his team on track by year’s end. They worked their way back to .500 and got a bowl bid, and this year will be even better. Sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the most underrated players in the entire country and was first-team All-ACC as a freshman. The Wolfpack are experienced in both trenches. The secondary is a problem, but in a league where every contender has its flaws, State has the fewest on their side of the draw. I like O’Brien to win the division.

Four teams have been left out of this discussion and that’s risky in this league, where envisioning three of the four making a championship run isn’t out of the question. But Virginia is going to be a sieve on the defensive front, Boston College is in turmoil with the coaching transition and Maryland has nothing on either line. All three of these teams have enough strengths that a bowl game is a legit hope, even if I wouldn’t predict it. Duke remains the one team that is hopelessly bad, and the defense in Durham will remind the locals all too much of the one that was shredded by Villanova in the Sweet 16 last March.

That leaves me predicting still more new faces in the conference championship game, as I have North Carolina vs. N.C. State. What a showdown. Dean Smith and Norm Sloan. Phil Ford and Sidney Lowe. Michael Jordan and David Thompson. Wait a minute, wrong sport. But still a good game, and I am picking the Tar Heels to capture the title and go to the Orange Bowl.

But before that game comes to pass, this is a conference hungry for national respect. Virginia Tech beating Cincinnati in last year’s Orange Bowl ended a major bowl losing streak that dated back to Florida State’s 1999 national championship season. A nice start, but beating the Bearcats isn’t going to change national perceptions of the ACC, and that means the league will still get short shrift if one of their teams gets into the national title picture in November. The focal point right now is the Virginia Tech-Alabama showdown on the first Saturday of the season, September 5. Parallels to last season are already being drawn, when a hungry ACC team (Clemson) went to the Georgia Dome to face the Tide and got spanked. This game will go a long way to deciding if the ACC gets the national respect it craves.

Up next: Big Ten on Wednesday
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Big East Preview

The Big East may be characterized more by who's leaving than who's winning what during the 2009 season. Two conference coaches are potential candidates for major jobs elsewhere, both of which could be open by year's end. Brian Kelly at Cincinnati is coming off a conference championship and Orange Bowl bid. And a guy with a name like Kelly hailing from the Midwest, think he might not be attractive to Notre Dame if Charlie Weis can't get it done? And at Rutgers, Greg Schiano's star has slipped a bit in the last couple seasons, but he remains a viable replacement candidate for Joe Paterno if two longshots happen--the school goes outside the program for a successor, and Joe Pa actually hangs it up.

That landscape illustrates a basic reality of Big East football--this is a midmajor conference in BCS Conference clothing. There's nothing on the merits that suggest the Big East champ should get an automatic ticket to a major bowl while a team from the Mountain West must run the table (this same problem would likely apply to playoff selection, lest this turn into another Bowls vs. Brackets debate). But that's the system we have and given the clout of Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese, it's not changing anytime soon. So who's coming out of this league in 2009?

West Virginia is the conference's showcase program, but there's been plenty of parity. Four different teams have earned the automatic BCS bid the last five years, and having bashed the league's participation in the party, I should note that they are 3-2 in those games. The Moutaineers will again be in the mix, but again it's going to be a wide-open race around them.

Cincinnati has a lot of rebuilding to do in its attempt to repeat. The Bearcats must replace ten defensive starters. While they still have explosive quarterback Tony Pike calling the shots and he will be supported by a respectable running game, I doubt they'll be able to stop anybody at a rate sufficient to win another championship. If Kelly wins seven games and goes to another bowl in an obvious rebuilding year, that would be a great testimony to the program he's building. West Virginia is the reverse. They look pretty good on the defensive side, but the departure of Pat White is just the most notable piece of an offense that must be completely revamped. If given the choice, I prefer a vet defense to a vet offense, so I like WVA over Cincy if it comes down to Perennial Power vs. Defending Champ, but there are other teams out there that are more complete.

The Dave Wannstedt era at Pitt has not been a huge success to date. Keep in mind that Wanny did not inherit a bare cupboard in the Steel City, taking over for Walt Harris when the Panthers were coming off a Fiesta Bowl season in 2004. But he has beaten West Virginia twice, and he won nine games in '08. Even with star runner LeSean McCoy gone, he's got the tools to do it again this season. His defensive line, keyed by standout end Greg Romeus is the lynchpin of a strong overall unit, and with three starters back on the offensive line he has the foundation of an offense. Not enough of a foundation to get to the top, but enough for another good year. An interesting non-conference test will come September 26 when Pitt goes to N.C. State.

UConn is a program whose star is on the rise, and they're coming off a winning season of their own. Here we have another team that will make some noise, but come up a little short. The Huskies' strengths are their secondary, and the offensive line, led by William Beatty, but they graduated two All-Conference defenders and are breaking in a new quarterback. Zach Frazier transferred in from Notre Dame and the BCS hopes in Storrs will rest heavily on him.

Both Pitt & UConn have to be aiming for at least the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day. The Jacksonville-based game is tacitly committed to the Big East runner-up. By 'tacitly' I mean, that they can also choose amongst Notre Dame and the fourth option out of the Big 12 as an opponent for the ACC runner-up. There are limits on how frequently the Gator can choose out of the Big 12, and since they picked Nebraska last year, that option is off the table in 2009. That means the Big East is also in a race with Notre Dame for a high-profile spot on January 1. Pitt & UConn each play the Irish head-to-head.

In 2006, Rutgers was the Cinderella story everyone loved. The Scarlet Knights pushed into November unbeaten. But they faded and a loss at home to Cincinnati foretold that it would be Kelly, rather than Schiano who got his team to the BCS first. Rutgers has remained competitive though, and is coming off a year that saw them close with a rush. After a 1-5 start ushered in an expensive new stadium, Schiano's team won their last six, and then beat surging N.C. State in the Papajohns.com Bowl. They're back and loaded for bear this season. All five offensive linemen are back. The defense is stocked with upperclassmen in starting roles. They have a new quarterback in Dominic Natale, but he is a senior. And with his top four backs returning behind him, Natale has enough weapons to make sure his fellow paisan, Schiano, finally breaks through in 2009.

Rounding out the league, South Florida won a bowl game last season and has gunslinger Matt Grothe back at center. With little else to work with, the Bulls should conjure up memories of Dan Marino's Dolphins in the late 1980s--a lot of flash, not many wins. And games against Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern, ones that won't count towards bowl eligibility will hinder their efforts to reach the postseason. Louisville has fallen hard since winning the Orange Bowl following the '06 season and seeing Bobby Petrino leave for the NFL. Neither Petrino nor the 'Ville has done much since. And Syracuse got its place in the national spotlight for its upset win at Notre Dame last November, but they got the attention because they were horrible prior to that. They look a little better this year, but there's still a long way to go.

There you have it. I am picking Rutgers to win the '09 Big East title, with Pitt & UConn close behind and Cincy and West Virginia also going to bowls. Circle Labor Day on your calendar. Rutgers hosts Cincinnati in the first big conference test any of the contenders face.

Up next: ACC Preview on Tuesday
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