The College Football Notebook

Oklahoma State Spits The Bit

Some games teach you lessons about what does or doesn’t win football games. Oklahoma State taught us this one yesterday—when you are inept at every single phase of the game, you are unlikely to score more points than your opposition. With a likely Fiesta Bowl bid on the line, the Cowboys spit the bit against Oklahoma and lost 27-0. I’d go into reams of analysis, but it all boils down to what opened this article. OSU was awful in all phases, and it’s hard not to assume that it’s just a case of a young team feeling the pressure while the blueblood program seized the moment to show it still had a little bit of mojo left.

Oklahoma’s win surely had people dancing in Idaho, as Boise State now stands as the favorite to secure the final at-large bid to the BCS (assuming the first three go to Alabama/Florida loser, Penn State/Iowa, & TCU). The only roadblock left would be whether the Sugar Bowl, who has the final pick, would be so skittish about a second midmajor team crashing the party that they instead opted for Virginia Tech or Miami out of the ACC. Both teams finished 9-3, capping off their seasons with wins over Virginia & South Florida respectively. If the SEC representative in the Sugar Bowl is Florida, the chances of Boise being screwed do increase. Because if it were Alabama, the Sugar wouldn’t rematch them with Va Tech. And with the Gators, the possibility of a rivalry game with the Hurricanes exists. I lean for Boise State to get the bid, as the BCS surely doesn’t want to spend another summer in Congress explaining why its favored conference teams can lose three games and get the nod, while a midmajor program that’s gone undefeated three times in four years and pulled one of the sport’s most memorable upsets can’t get an invite.

Elsewhere on the bowl scene, LSU needed overtime to survive Arkansas 33-30 in the Bayou. This game was the scene of a terrible judgment call. That being by your friendly neighborhood blogger. I wasn’t feeling all that great last night, and after the Tigers took a 17-3 lead, I just went to bed early figuring they had it under control. Should’ve toughed it out. The game probably seals LSU in the Capital One Bowl on January 1 against the loser of the Penn State/Iowa BCS sweepstakes.

The SEC West picture in general was rattled yesterday. Ole Miss reverted to underachieving form and lost to Mississippi State, with Jevan Snead throwing three interceptions. The Cotton Bowl has to make a tough call between the Rebels, Auburn and Arkansas to face what will probably be Oklahoma State out of the Big 12. Ole Miss could’ve made the pick easy with a win. Now it’s anybody’s guess.

Over in the SEC East, I had originally pegged the Tennessee-Kentucky game as a battle for the January 1 Outback Bowl. This was another overtime thriller, where Tennessee won behind a big night from Montario Hardesty. But my assumptions figured Georgia would lose to Georgia Tech. And that missed the mark, as the Bulldogs won it 30-24, salvaging something from a disappointing season, making them 7-5 and an attractive pick for the Tampa-based bowl game. As for Georgia Tech, they joined Clemson in suffering losses to SEC teams in preparation for their championship showdown next week. The Tigers were beaten badly in the fourth quarter in a 34-17 loss to South Carolina. It’s easy to say that Tech & Clemson had nothing to play for, and for the winner that’s true. But these losses, mean that that the loser of next week’s title tilt will almost surely fall behind North Carolina, Virginia Tech & Miami in the pecking order. It’s a long drop from the Orange to the Music City, and that’s what now at stake next week. In the meantime, congrats to the Gamecocks. They opened the season by pounding N.C. State and closed it by pounding Clemson. That they couldn’t do anything in between is a statement of pride for the SEC.

In the fight to become bowl-eligible, UConn got it done against Syracuse 56-31. On the same weekend their basketball team lost badly to Duke, the Huskie football program took out its revenge on former Blue Devil guard and current Orange quarterback Greg Paulus, and scored almost as many points as the hoops team did (68-59 in the Preseason NIT final). The Duke football team missed its chance to go bowling. Riley Skinner and Thaddeus Lewis hooked up in a classic duel, but Wake Forest fired a few more bullets and won 45-34. And in another shootout, Kansas’ season of discontent ended with a last-play loss to Missouri, 41-39, that ensures the Jayhawks have no bowl ahead of them.

We’ll wrap it up here with Charlie Weis’ probable swan song in Palo Alto. Toby Gerhart ran wild, for 205 yards, as the Cardinal scored a come-from-behind 45-38 win. But again, we sing the praises of Jimmy Clausen who single-handedly put his team in position to win. He won’t get Heisman consideration because his team struggled. But I’ve never understood the logic of holding a player’s weak supporting cast against him. If anything, is that not a further testament to his ability, that he can carry a team to a certain point singlehandedly.

Texas & Alabama Survive

Texas and Alabama got both major scares over the last two days and gave rise to hopes in Fort Worth, where TCU stands poised to take a spot in the national championship game should any cracks appear in the wall of the UT/Bama/Florida trio. But when the dust settled, both had survived and the championship picture remained unchanged.

Alabama’s survival was the nobler of the two. Facing archrival Auburn on the road, this year’s installment of the Iron Bowl was a classic football game. It realistically cost Mark Ingram the Heisman Trophy, as the Auburn defense shut him down and held the Tide to 73 yards rushing. But give all credit to the Crimson Tide defense and to quarterback Greg McElroy. The former gave up a couple big plays, but there was never a sense that Auburn really had a cohesive offensive attack going that could sustain a drive. McElroy wasn’t great, but he was efficient. He didn’t make mistakes, something that contrasted him with counterpart Chris Todd, who threw one crucial interception and should’ve had a couple more. And McElroy repeatedly hooked up with Julius Jones on some clutch third-down plays that kept the winning drive alive in the 26-21 triumph. CBS analyst Steve Beurlein kept saying that Jones needed to make more plays down the field, not just the simple 7-10 yard patterns he was running. Beurlein’s point was a good one—it’s tough to drive the length of the field in bits and pieces at a time. But ‘Bama made it work and Jones caught no fewer than four clutch balls, all short, but all timely on the drive that gave Nick Saban a second straight 12-0 season.

The Texas defense must have been bloated from the turkey on Thursday night, because I have never seen them play as poorly as they did in this game. To be fair, they were on a short week, they were the traveling team and they were facing an archrival in a jacked-up stadium. And Texas A&M, for all its flaws on defense, can move the football. Both teams did with ridiculous ease. Containment of quarterbacks in the pocket was terrible, as Colt McCoy was made to look like Jamelle Holieway sprinting up and down the field for a stunning 175 rushing yards. Tackling in general looked like a flag football game. It ended 49-39, with Texas surviving the scare.

It goes without saying that Texas can’t play like this and expect to beat Nebraska next week, much less Florida or Alabama. But we should also say that the rarity of defensive play like this from Mack Brown’s team, combined with all the variables mentioned above, lead me to believe that it was an aberration which they survived. And I suspect McCoy may have locked up the Heisman Trophy with his performance, barring something heroic from Tebow next week against Alabama. I’ve made it clear that I find either of these two quarterbacks winning the award to be based solely on hype, not performance. But if it comes to McCoy or Tebow, I would have to choose the Texas quarterback.

Cincinnati and Boise State kept alive their own perfect seasons, but continued to showcase their own serious defensive flaws in the process. The Bearcats beat Illinois 49-36, a game not as close as the score makes it sound, but one in which shaky Illini quarterback Juice Williams was both mistake-free and explosive, something Big Ten fans can tell you is a combination he rarely puts together. Tony Pike had more than enough answers, throwing for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns for Cincy. This remains an extraordinary year for Brian Kelly’s program, but if we are talking about putting them in a class with the Big Three, the defensive meltdowns can’t be ignored. Fresno State, UConn, West Virginia and now Illinois have moved the ball with ease on this team. That’s a clear pattern and none of those teams are going to be mistaken for the Saints or Patriots anytime soon. Pitt is up next. The Panthers lost to West Virginia last night on a last-second field goal, but they have the weapons to challenge the Bearcats in what should be a great game for the Big East’s BCS berth.

The same goes for Boise State. Last night, they beat Nevada 44-33. It was another WAC title and an amazing third 12-0 season in four years. But the Bronco defense was not up to snuff, against an offense that Notre Dame shut out back in September (and Nevada was experienced at all the key places, lest you think the September zero be attributed to inexperience). There’s not much of an argument for placing the Broncos in the national title game, and the main argument for putting them in a major bowl would be this—if they are frozen out, they go to the Humanitarian Bowl, where the opponent would be akin to Bowling Green. Conversely, if the Big Ten (Penn State or Iowa) is frozen out, they go Capital One and play someone like LSU. I’d like to at least see how Boise matches up with the better teams and shipping them off to the bowl equivalent of Siberia isn’t going to do it.

Thanksgiving Weekend Previews

We’ve got three days of college football ahead. Here’s some brief comments about the major games of the weekend…

Thursday
Texas-Texas A&M (8,ESPN)

Remember all the talk during the World Series about Yankee starting pitchers going on short rest? The Longhorns and Aggies both played Saturday and are unlikely to be too sympathetic to the plight of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettite. As far as analyzing the game, I’m not going to pretend I think the Aggies have a chance. Their only hope is for a big game from their talented quarterback, Jerrod Johnson. But Texas’ defense is extraordinarily good, and Johnson can’t beat them by himself. Furthermore, Colt McCoy is playing his best football of the season.

But how’s this for a storyline—Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman was run out of his job as head coach of the Packers after new GM Ted Thompson came to town. Thompson’s worst nightmare for Thanksgiving is that his Packers are upset in Detroit to start the day, Sherman’s Aggies pull off an upset at night and then Brett Favre and the Vikings beat up the Bears on Sunday to continue their Super Bowl push. But for this prime-time game, Ted can probably just relax and enjoy some post-turkey cheesecake.

Friday
Auburn-Alabama (2:30,CBS)
Nebraska-Colorado (3:30, ABC)
Pitt-West Virginia (7,ESPN2)
Nevada-Boise State (10, ESPN2)

I see a couple upsets here, but not in the juicy spots everyone’s looking for. Nebraska is on the road in Boulder. They clinched the Big 12 North last week and have the conference title game with Texas next week. What are the odds they’re really ready to go against the Buffs? And for all of Colorado’s problems, they’ve sprung some surprises, including against Kansas & Texas A&M. Nebraska’s not so good that they can play subpar and win here on the road. I like Colorado to get some turnovers and win this one 24-17. And Pitt is another team in a tough schedule spot. Cincinnati is ahead of them, and regardless of what happens tonight, the Panthers will be playing for a BCS slot in that game. West Virginia has homefield and hasn’t forgotten that the Panthers have beaten them two straight times, including a devastating 2007 loss here in Morgantown that knocked WVA out of the national championship game. They get their revenge on Black Friday.

Alabama-Auburn features the two best running backs in the SEC, in Mark Ingram and Ben Tate. You know the stakes for Alabama. But this is a big game for Auburn too, and not just because it’s always a big one for these two schools against each other. An Auburn win can get them a New Year’s Day bid in the Cotton Bowl. I look for them to play well and stay in the game, but I think ‘Bama’s too well-coached to lose this one.

At the start of the season, the Boise-Nevada game was one I had circled (a sure sign that I am desperately in need of a life). I thought the Wolfpack would be undefeated and that Boise would have no more than one loss. Nevada hasn’t met those expectations, but they are unbeaten in WAC play. This game is winner-take-all for a conference title. Consider the stakes for the Broncos. If they win this game and get some realistic breaks (either on the field or from BCS bowl selectors), they could be bound for the Fiesta or Sugar Bowls. Lose this game and they get the spot reserved for WAC runner-ups…the New Mexico Bowl, against the fourth of fifth place team from the Mountain West, possibly Air Force. How’s that for a game with consequence?

Another game to keep one eye on is Illinois-Cincinnati. The Bearcats have come off two grinding wins in their league, against UConn and West Virginia and have Pitt ahead next week. The Illini could catch them napping. I don’t know that Illinois is well-coached enough to win this on the road,

Saturday
Florida-Florida State (3:30,CBS)
Clemson-South Carolina (Noon,ESPN)
Georgia-Georgia Tech
LSU-Arkansas (7,ESPN)
Tennessee-Kentucky
BYU-Utah
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State
Stanford-Notre Dame (8,ABC)

From the standpoint of conference strength, the three SEC-ACC showdowns that head this list will be good test points. Although at this point, it appears to be an issue of academic, rather than practical interest, as I can’t imagine what effect it will have on anyone’s bowl or national title positioning.

There’s no shortage of practical effect on the three games involving four bowl-bound SEC East teams. The Tennessee-Kentucky game is likely winner-take-all for a January 1 Outback Bowl spot. Unless, of course, Georgia can upset Georgia Tech and make their own case for that spot. South Carolina is also looking to move up the bowl ladder and win a rivalry game with Clemson.

Oklahoma State’s visit to Oklahoma will be watched with great interest in Boise, presuming Boise State wins on Friday. A BCS bowl game likely comes down to the Cowboys & Broncos, with Okie State holding the inside track. Should Boise be frozen out, they get the loser of BYU-Utah. Finally, Stanford can make a case for the Pac-10’s Holiday Bowl bid (the top non-BCS prize) by beating Notre Dame. And if the Irish collapse to 6-6, will they even accept a bowl bid? Better ND teams than this one have turned down invites.

Have a happy Thanksgiving! We’ll see you again on Saturday morning to sort out the results of the weekend’s first two days.

Bowl Projections

The days of packed college football Saturdays are over, but the smattering of games left are of major consequence for how the bowl matchups will play out. Coming up tomorrow, we’ll look at all the key games from Thursday to Sunday, but today let’s set the table with some projections for the major bowls and the top second-tier games. In previous posts, I’ve discussed the rules of selection for BCS games. I don’t want to rehash them all today, but if you’re not familiar, you can find them by clicking here.

BCS National Championship: Texas vs. Florida
The matchup I had at the start of the year (admittedly not the boldest pick on the planet) and they’re both still standing. No reason to change course now.

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Georgia Tech
Clemson’s coming on and may upset the Yellow Jackets next week for the ACC title and automatic spot in this game. And rumor has it that the Big Ten is leaning heavily on the BCS to take Iowa rather than Penn State, due to the Hawkeyes’ head-to-head win. But however you slice it, this game will be the ACC Champ vs. Big Ten #2.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. TCU
This game has the key decision to make about Boise State. Their relationship with the Big 12 points to taking the Cowboys, so long as they beat Oklahoma in Norman on Saturday.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
The loser of the SEC championship game is almost certainly going to be chosen by the Sugar. And the Big East champ has an automatic bid and nowhere else to go. Pitt could still win the league. The Sugar would surely love for either Oklahoma State or TCU, two schools that are close, with passionate fan bases, to fall into their lap. But for the second straight year, they get the discouraged SEC runner-up against an unbeaten team looking to make a name for themselves.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
I like the Ducks to beat Oregon State next Thursday. This would shape up as a great game, one in which an enormous amount of pressure would be on Ohio State to end their big-game losing streak.

That’s the major bowl lineup. If I had my own way, I’d like to see the Fiesta try and stage an “Undercard National Championship”, with Cincinnati and TCU. That also gives the Sugar Bowl a good traveling team in Oklahoma State. And there’s no question that Iowa deserves the Big Ten nod over Penn State. But until the major bowls get a centrally organized selection committee, similar to the NCAA Tournament, each game’s individual interest will trump the overall good of the game.

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Capital One Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU (Big Ten vs. SEC)
The Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss last week opened up the race for this bid in the SEC, but if they beat Arkansas on Saturday, Les Miles’ team should hold on for their part in the annual Big Ten-SEC runner-up grudge match.

Outback Bowl: Northwestern-Tennessee (Big Ten vs. SEC East)
This has the Wildcats leapfrogging Wisconsin, who will likely finish 9-3, presuming a win over Hawaii next week. And normally the good-traveling Badger fans give their program every edge in bowl selection. But it’s a different phenomena this year. Wisconsin’s been to Florida every year since 2002 and the fans are a little tired of the same trip. Furthermore, the road trip to Hawaii (coming more or less in conjunction with the basketball program being out there for the Maui Classic), means a lot of fans spent vacation money that way. All of which points to the excitement of the fresh face in Tampa. On the SEC side, Tennessee needs to beat Kentucky this weekend to secure the bid for themselves.

Cotton Bowl: Nebraska-Ole Miss (Big 12 vs. SEC West)
Ole Miss’ win over LSU put them back in the running for a return trip to Dallas. Auburn controls their destiny for this trip if they can upset Alabama.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Miami-Auburn (ACC vs. SEC)
It’s either Miami or Virginia Tech for the Big East spot. This game is in Atlanta, and Hokie fans already traveled there for the Alabama game back in September. This is also an attractive TV matchup in the New Year’s Eve night time slot.

Gator Bowl: Virginia Tech-Pitt (ACC vs. Big East)
Good New Year’s Day game between old foes from the Big East. The Gator Bowl is also licking its chops at the possibility of Pitt upsetting Cincy for the Big East title, then seeing the Bearcats frozen out of the BCS and falling into this game.

Holiday: Stanford-Missouri (Pac-10 vs. Big 12)
Interesting decision for this bowl to make. They get the first Pac-10 pick on the board and could go a number of ways. But I think if Stanford takes care of Notre Dame on Saturday night, their big wins over Oregon and USC get them the edge. Missouri needs to beat Kansas and get to 8-4 to earn their trip to San Diego.

The thing that jumps out at me in looking at the undercard is the complete and utter collapse of Oklahoma. If the Sooners don’t beat Oklahoma State, they fall to 6-6. They would be bowl eligible, but NCAA rules prohibit 6-6 teams from being chosen ahead of anyone else in a conference’s chain of command (whereas a 7-5 team can vault an 8-4 team). An OU win could move them up as high as the Cotton and certainly into the Holiday. A loss, and who knows how irrelevant they will become? And there also needs to be provision for a midmajor team to jump into this tier of games, just as there is for the major bowl spots. If Boise State doesn't make the BCS, they fall to the Poinsettia Bowl, where they get the loser of BYU-Utah. Even if they are going to get screwed by the BCS, why can't we get them in the Capital One for a January 1 showcase? Or even the Holiday in place of the fourth choice from the Big 12?

See you tomorrow. Game previews for the weekend will post right away in the morning, so make the Notebook one of your online stops before the holiday festivities begin.

Ready For Kentucky & Northwestern?

It's New Year's Day and you're rousting yourself from bed after the party the night before, slugging down some aspirin to kill the hangover and turning on the TV to start a day of football. And your first game is...Kentucky & Northwestern? Well, it's not a guarantee, but big wins by both schools made it a real possibility that they'll meet at 11 AM ET on January 1 in the Outback Bowl.

Kentucky rallied from deficits of 20-6 & 27-13 on the road in Georgia to pull out a 34-27 win. The Wildcats took care of the ball and let the hosts beat themselves. This hugely disappointing year for the Bulldogs took another setback thanks to four turnovers. The Bulldogs fell to 6-5 and still have Georgia Tech ahead next week. Kentucky moved to 7-4. Tennessee & South Carolina are also at 6-5. The Outback Bowl will have to take one of these four teams. Why not the 'Cats? UK will play Tennessee next in a game that could settle this bid head-to-head. Tennessee beat up on Vanderbilt 31-16 thanks to a huge day from running back Montario Hardesty, who racked up 171 yards on the ground. 

The SEC East likely pairs up with the fourth place team from the Big Ten. Wisconsin has had the inside track on this bid for a few weeks now, but Northwestern upset the Badgers 33-31 in Evanston. It's now anybody's guess what the Outback will do. Both teams are 5-3 in conference play, while the Wildcats have the head-to-head win. Neither team played much of anyone in non-conference, but Northwestern's nothingness is a little worse than Wisconsin's nothingness--the Badgers survived Fresno State, while NU couldn't beat Syracuse. Wisconsin is a half-game ahead overall (8-3 to 8-4) with a road trip to Hawaii in two weeks. It might come down to that. Or the Outback could fear Wisconsin fans won't travel to Florida for a sixth straight year and opt for a new team. However the bowl politics shake out, it shouldn't take away from what was one of the best games of the day. Scott Tolzien and Mike Kafka, the best two quarterbacks in the league (sorry Ohio State fans) kept firing away and played great games. Finally a fumble recovery by Northwestern at midfield sealed it.

Either team making it to Tampa on January 1 hinges on the Big Ten getting an at-large BCS bowl invitiation and moving all teams one rung up the bowl ladder. Penn State & Iowa made sure that the at-large is very likely. Penn State blew out Michigan State, an outcome that surprised me. MSU did nothing offensively, while Daryl Clark played one of the best games of his two-year tenure as a starter, going 19/27 for 310 yards. Evan Royster went over the 100-yard mark and made his own case in what should be an interesting race between him and Wisconsin's John Clay for league MVP. Iowa won a defensive struggle with Minnesota 12-0, holding Adam Weber to 14-for-40 passing. Both Iowa and Penn State are 10-2. It's almost assured the BCS will choose one of them, and now it's just a question of which. PSU is the politically easier choice--Eastern TV markets, big fan base, you never know when it's Joe Pa's last game. Iowa's got only the big fan base. They also have a head-to-head win over the Nittany Lions, plus a non-conference win over Arizona, far more impressive than anything Penn State did outside the league. Choosing Iowa would be the right thing, as opposed to the politically convenient thing. But the bowls' track record makes it a 100 percent likelihood that convenience will triumph.

And Ohio State wrapped up the outright league championship with another win over Michigan. I watched this game and it was one of the dullest OSU-Michigan games I've ever seen, livened up only by Tate Forcier's tossing the ball into coverage, as he threw for four interceptions. So much for the spread offense being the wave of the future in the Big Ten.

Murky Waters In The SEC & Big 12

The SEC bowl picture, especially in the West, seemed so clear-cut. The Florida/Alabama loser would go to the Sugar, LSU would go Cap One and Auburn would go Cotton. After Ole Miss first rallied, then hung on to beat LSU 25-23 on Saturday, that's no longer so clear-cut. Who really stands out for the honor of the Capital One Bowl, the conference's top non-BCS prize? LSU could still get it, but Ole Miss now has a case. And regardless, what SEC West team does the Cotton Bowl take. Here too, the Rebels have a very good case to go ahead of Auburn, even though that doubtless worries organizers in Dallas, who had Ole Miss last year.

And with LSU now sitting on three losses, that's opened the door for Arkansas, who is at 7-4 after beating Mississippi State 42-21 behind five touchdowns and over 300 yards passing from Ryan Mallett. Arkansas plays LSU this Saturday and a Hog victory could certainly put then in line for Dallas, and perhaps even New Year's in Orlando. And another big game by Mallett could get him this site's vote for SEC MVP. He makes a few too many mistakes to be Heisman material, but like Jimmy Clausen, he is virtually the sole reason his team is at where it's at. Mark Ingram or Tim Tebow will win the award, but Mallett is easily more deserving than Tebow. We'll wait until next Saturday to make a verdict on him vs. Ingram.

The Cotton Bowl also surely had its eye on Oklahoma to be its Big 12 team. But the Sooners lost again, in stunning blowout fashion to Texas Tech 41-13. At 6-5, the Sooners are sliding down the ladder and Oklahoma State may be sliding into the BCS, after surviving Colorado on Thursday night. Missouri beat Iowa State behind a big game from Blaine Gabbert and could get the nod for the Big 12's best second-tier bowl, or it could be Nebraska, presuming a loss in the conference championship game. We know it won't be Texas A&M, but we still salute Aggie coach Mike Sherman for returning this program to bowl eligiblity after a 38-3 thrashing of Baylor.

Clinchings & Controversies

The ACC & Big 12 settled their championship game matchups on Saturday. Out east, Clemson beat Virginia 34-21. I was surprised this one was as tough as it was for the Tigers, as the Cavs hung with them for the first half before falling. C.J. Spiller was quiet with only 58 yards, so this should end the ill-advised Heisman talk circulating around him. Kyle Parker, the more valuable component of the offense, was an efficient 19/26 for 234 yards and no mistakes. The Tigers held a 2-0 turnover edge to help make the difference.

As predicted here, Clemson could've backed in to the berth in Tampa had they been so inclined. Boston College and North Carolina staged an absolutely atrocious football game up in Chestnut Hill, combining for eight interceptions and ten turnovers. But BC, needing to win to keep any faint hopes of catching Clemson alive, was the more
atrocious of the two. They accounted for six of the turnovers, fell behind 21-0 and lost without putting up a real struggle. UNC is the team no one in the ACC would want to play if the season started over today, but if they are going to do any damage in their bowl matchup, Tyler Yates simply cannot be throwing it up for grabs like this.

Elsewhere in the ACC, Virginia Tech and Miami had big margins of victory, as they angle with each other for positioning in the bowl hiearchy. But Miami's 34-16 win over Duke was deceptive. The Blue Devils were right in this game for three quarters. It was a show of QB-WR combos, as Thaddeus Lewis and Donovan Varner hooked up for the Dookies, while Jacory Harris and Leonard Hankerson did the same for the 'Canes. Duke led 16-13, before three Miami TDs in the fourth quarter averted an embarrassing homefield upset. There was nothing deceptive about Virginia Tech's 38-10 lambasting of N.C. State. The Hokies dominated
the ground game on both sides of the ball.

In the Big 12, it was Texas and Nebraska securing places at the Palace in Dallas on December 5. The Longhorns clinching was anticlimatic by this point and they routed Kansas 51-20. The Jayhawks are struggling on the field and the allegations of verbal abuse against head coach Mark Mangino are causing considerable problems off of it. If the allegations are true, I have little sympathy with the Jayhawk coach, who is said to have belittled players coming from the ghetto and mocked another as being a poor friend to someone who'd recently died. I'm usually on the coach's side in these controversies, and my favorite all-time person in sports is Bob Knight, who's on my screen saver at work, so I'm not exactly sympathetic to players who cry about stuff like this. But if Mangino did say these things, he's well beyond the line. I want to withhold judgement, but Kirk Herbstreit noted on Gameday, that it's
interesting none of Mangino's former players have come to his defense, at least not yet.

On the field, Nebraska beat Kansas State 17-3, in a fairly non-descript game at Lincoln. K-State matched up with the home favorites, but penalties and a 2-1 turnover margin was the difference. There's nothing to suggest the Cornhuskers can stay in a game with Texas, but winning the North is still a badly needed step forward for Bo Pellini's program.

Complications Made Simple

The Pac-10 race was complicated on Saturday morning and stood to get worse if Arizona was able to get a home win over Oregon last night. But in a thrilling double-OT finish, the Ducks won 44-41. Jeremiah Masoli and Nic Foles were both outstanding at quarterback, but Masoli got more help on the ground. Arizona's Nic Grigsby, identified on ESPN's Gameday as critical to the outcome, did nothing in the running game, while LaMichael James again went over 100 yards for Oregon. The Pac-10 now boils down to Thursday night, December 3 on ESPN. Oregon has already secured a share of the conference championship, but Oregon State can tie them and win the Rose Bowl bid if they win the big nationally televised rivalry game in ten days.

Oregon State kept themselves in it with an easy win over Washington State, 45-10. The win itself wasn't noteworthy, but a big game from Jacquizz Rodgers was. After a couple ho-hum performances, the talented running back used a game against the league's doormat to unleash for 165 yards. He now has a chance to solidfy his claim for Pac-10 MVP and put his team in Pasadena. One year ago, Oregon State was on the brink of going to the Rose Bowl when they lost badly on the road to Oregon. Now they've got them in Corvallis for the biggest game in school history.

Another step to simplifying the championship race was that Cal took out Stanford 34-28. This was a case of both running games putting on a show. If I'd said this at the start of the season, we'd have assumed it was Jahvid Best and Toby Gerhart. We would have only been half-right. Gerhart was in the house, going for 136 yards, but Shane Vereen continued to be the man for the Golden Bears, putting up triple-digit rush yards himself. After a disappointing midseason, highlighted by horrible losses to USC & Oregon, Cal is closing strong and at 8-3 is in position for a nice bowl bid. Stanford is still having a great year as well, at 7-4, with reeling Notre Dame coming to Palo Alto next week.

Notre Dame was the other place where complications were made simple. I'd have raised my voice in defense of Charlie Weis if he'd have finished 8-4, but after yesterday's 2-OT loss to UConn, that won't happen and he is history. But my own personal Heisman ballot was drastically simplified. I'm voting for Jimmy Clausen. He was exquisite again yesterday, throwing for 329 yards, no mistakes and constantly hooking up with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. No, his team hasn't had a big year. But without him, they'd be in Division III.

Check back in later this afternoon and we'll have some more previews. The Pac-10 got simple, but some races for New Year's Day bowl spots got complicated elsewhere and we'll celebrate some teams that wrapped up divisions.

If I Had A Dime In Vegas...

If I were in the betting capital of the world, and had the means and the legal standing to place a bet, here's a few that jump out at me on Saturday's card. All numbers are drawn from scoresandodds.com.

*UConn (+6) over Notre Dame: Lean to the Huskies as an outright winner, but regardless, Notre Dame generally plays close games and it comes down to a field goal other way. Not a huge play, but decent one.

*Wyoming (+31) over TCU: The Cowboys hung around with Texas on their homefield and catch TCU on a post-Utah letdown.

*North Carolina (+145) over Boston College: Note that the number here is the moneyline, not the pointspread. Carolina's a 3.5 point dog, but I'm confident enough in them winning outright to junk the
points and bet the straight-up win getting odds.

*LSU (+4.5) over Ole Miss: It's in Oxford, but have you seen anything in the Rebels that would make you spot more than a field goal to a team they'd lose to on a neutral site?

*Michigan State (+3) over Penn State: Similar to UConn/Notre Dame, this is more a lean than a real strong play. But I like the Spartans and if I had cash, I'd put a small amount down on them.

*Michigan State/Penn State (Over 47.5) : This one I believe in stronger. These teams are going to put points on the board.

*Oklahoma/Texas Tech (Over 53): Landry Jones is coming around and Texas Tech can score with anyone.

The Big Ten & The BCS

If it’s the Saturday before Thanksgiving, that can only mean two things. It’s time to go over to my in-laws and spend the morning making homemade Polish sausage, a great ethnic tradition and fabulous sausage for the next year to boot. And it means its Big Ten Rivalry Day, a tradition that lasts one more year before Jim Delaney’s league caves to modernity and pushes the season back to the holiday weekend.

There’s not a lot of hype surrounding this weekend’s games in the Big Ten, after Ohio State locked up the Rose Bowl bid. But there are four games that remain very consequential. Ohio State has not yet secured an outright league championship and Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin can still get a piece of the hardware. This is a big deal to Midwesterners, as I can tell you from personal experience. And it matters in the scope of history. Few people cared last year when the Buckeyes tied Penn State for the championship, even as PSU went to Pasadena. But when Ohio State won last Saturday, the news reports led with headlines to the effect of “Ohio State clinches fifth straight Big Ten championship.” That streak was kept alive by two co-championships in years where they didn’t get the league’s automatic BCS spot. Right now this race probably matters more to the three trailing teams than Ohio State, but it is significant nonetheless.

Can Michigan beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor? A lot of things make me want to say yes. The Wolverines can score points, they are playing at home, they are playing to be bowl-eligible and perhaps playing to save their coach’s job. Ohio State has every reason to be flat, at least as flat as these teams can be when they are playing each other. For all of these reasons, I think UM will make a game of it. But I don’t trust teams that fail to play defense. Ohio State does, and that can carry them through flat stretches. Michigan doesn’t, and I see Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron being able to run and Terrelle Pryor making just enough plays to DeVier Posey for the Buckeyes to survive an early rush from emotion-charged Michigan and then pull away late.

Iowa hosts Minnesota in another rivalry game. Flatness may be an issue here as well, and one wonders if James Vandeberg can play well two weeks in a row. But Iowa is at home, and they are vastly better coached. If Minnesota still had Glen Mason at helm, I’d expect him to bring in a prepared Gopher team that would control the ground and pull the upset in a ripe spot. This Minny team won’t do it and the Hawks will be another team pulling away late.

Both of these games are at noon EST. In the 3:30 window, you have Wisconsin-Northwestern and Michigan State-Penn State. This is a tough opponent for the Badgers to have to take out and NU’s Pat Fitzgerald is having his name floated as a dark horse for the Notre Dame job. Wisconsin’s offense is ahead of their defense and that is dangerous when you’re in spots for a road upset. The 7-4 Wildcats spring a surprise in this game, call it 31-21.

If there’s a game that will affect the fates of more teams than Penn State-Michigan State, I’d like to know which one it is. The race for the four at-large bids to the BCS was given some clarity when USC lost to Stanford. It would seem to me you can pencil in the Florida-Alabama loser, TCU & Boise State for three of the bids. It would further seem that you can say Penn State controls its own destiny for the fourth slot if they win this game and get to 10-2. But if they lose, they open up hope for whole host of teams. Iowa & Wisconsin could leapfrog them as the Big Ten’s top candidate. Virginia Tech & Miami would be three-loss teams that played good non-conference opponents. The runner-up in the Pac-10 mix might be 9-3. What about Pitt at 10-2, presuming they beat West Virginia and lose to Cincinnati? All of these teams have a case to make for the final bid and it would be the Sugar Bowl, with the final pick in the BCS draft selection, that would be judge and jury.

Perhaps the team with the best case to move ahead of Penn State isn’t any of the above though—it might just be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have just two losses. Both are respectable, to Houston & Texas. If they win out, that would presume collecting the scalp of Oklahoma in Norman. Finally, Stillwater’s not far from New Orleans and a lot of fans would surely travel. Oklahoma State will be the Thursday night feature, hosting Colorado. That game won’t be a problem for them, and come Saturday they should have a watchful eye on the doings in East Lansing. Because the pick here is that Michigan State upsets the Nittany Lions in the range of 33-24, and gives hope to all of the above teams, especially Okie State.

There are other big games in the Big 12 on Saturday. Kansas goes to Texas. This will be a difficult stretch for the Longhorns—to complete their perfect regular season, they need to win this one and then come right back on Thanksgiving Night against Texas A&M. Two games in six days is a tough row to hoe. A&M has the same problem and there’s no way the Longhorns would look past their archrival and last step in the process. But they might be caught looking ahead here and it will be interesting to see if Todd Reesing can put some points on the board and make this one a game. And there’s a big showdown in the Big 12 North, as Kansas State visits Nebraska. The winner will lock up this division title and the right to play Texas come December 5. Right now, Nebraska is 4-2 in league play, while K-State is 4-3. Everyone else has at least four losses. A Husker win clinches first place outright. A Wildcat assures a tie and winning the tiebreaker. So a chaotic year in this division comes to a head in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers should win it easily. If they blow it, Bo Pellini can join the list of coaches on the hot seat.

The SEC doesn’t have a lot of action this week, with Alabama and Florida playing non-conference cupcakes before their rivalry games next week (Auburn & Florida State). LSU-Ole Miss will be a key game in positioning for bowl games, and if I thought Ole Miss had any sort of chance, I’d have given this game more hype. But Jevan Snead has been a huge disappointment and I liked the way the Tigers played at Alabama enough to believe they’ll get it done in Oxford. In the world of the midmajors, TCU goes to Wyoming, while Boise plays Friday night at Utah State. Finally, UConn visits Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish try desperately to not only get Charlie Weis another year, but to avoid falling further down the bowl ladder.