The Pro Football Notebook

MNF Preview: Minnesota-Green Bay

The Minnesota-Green Bay rivalry is at its lowest ebb in a while. It hit a high point when Brett Favre switched over to the Vikings for 2009-10 and during Favre’s time in Green Bay, the Vikings were the most consistent nemesis. As the two NFC North foes get set for Monday Night this looks like a game only a bettor could love, as one evaluates whether Green Bay can cover a number of (-14) tonight in Lambeau Field.

Green Bay’s having problems in pass protection, and only the combination of Mike McCarthy’s creative play design and Aaron Rodgers’ incomparable ability to rapidly pick out the open man is able to keep the passing game going. The problem the Vikes face is that if you don’t actually sack Rodgers, he hits his man, and the Packers pile up huge numbers. Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen is having a great bounceback year and he needs to be in Rodgers’ face all night long.

The other Packer weakness is in the secondary, as a combination of Nick Collins’ injury and Clay Matthews disappointing sack production have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pile up the yardage. In this case the Vikes are less suited to capitalize on the weakness, since I wouldn’t be too confident of Christian Ponder’s ability to play well in front of the hostile road crowd on prime-time.

Minnesota is an improving team. Green Bay is a team with some cracks in the armor. But a Monday Night in Lambeau isn’t the night those will show up in the W-L column. I look for Ponder to make some mistakes, Rodgers not to make any and the Pack to churn their way to 9-0, likely covering the spread.

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NFL Draft Wrap

Our spring session here at The Pro Football Notebook comes to an end with some random thoughts on the NFL draft…

*I liked Dallas’ move to get Dez Bryant. I think his “character issues” are overrated—let’s be honest, signing with an agent isn’t akin to drug use or assault, and even if they weren’t, Ben Roethlisberger has shown that such issues aren’t a hindrance to NFL success. Dallas got a nice linebacker in Sean Lee, a player with Bobby Carpenter-like talent. Not spectacular, but steady.

*Minnesota got themselves a very good deal with Toby Gerhart in the second round. The Stanford running back is big, physical and tough, meaning there’s no rest for defenses when Adrian Peterson needs a rest. It also fills an immediate need, replacing Chester Taylor who left for Chicago.

*Green Bay got one of the top picks of the entire first round when they drafted Iowa offensive tackle Bryan Bugala. He had been speculated to go in the top 10, but began falling. Funny, but isn’t the same thing that happened to Aaron Rodgers?

*Detroit was another winner when they got Ndamakong Suh at the second overall pick. The Nebraska defensive tackle should have gone first. The Rams passed on the chance and will instead become the latest team to throw $50 million down the drain on a rookie quarterback dumped into a hornet’s nest with no supporting cast.

*Tampa Bay got the second-best player in the draft, another defensive tackle from the Big 12 in Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy. He’s one of two DTs the Bucs added, and they also picked a nice big-play threat in Illinois wide receiver Aurelious Benn.

*The first offensive lineman to be taken was Oklahoma’s Trent Williams, going to Washington. But others feel that crossstate rival Russell Okung from Oklahoma State was the real top OT. He went to Seattle as the heir apparent to Walter Jones. A lot of good line talent coming out of the Big 12, suggesting that the league might be more than just spread offenses burning out the scoreboard lights.

*New England had a thing for Florida players, using three of their 11 picks on Gators. I especially liked the choice of linebacker Brandon Spikes in Round 2.

*Buffalo got positive reviews for its pick of C.J. Spiller in the first round and rightly so. But keep an eye on seventh-round pick Levi Brown. The versatile quarterback from Troy could be a real sleeper. Elsewhere in the AFC East, Miami’s first-round pick of Penn State defensive tackle Jared Odrick was first-rate.

*Cleveland handled themselves well under the leadership of Mike Holmgren. They addressed the secondary first and still got quality talent at the skill positions. Montario Hardesty, a running back out of Tennessee, plus Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, could easily be the best at their positions in this draft.

*Across the state of Ohio, Cincinnati went to both ends of the character spectrum. They took a flyer on talented but troubled Carlos Dunlap, a good pass-rushing linebacker from Florida. And then they took steady but unspectacular Jordan Shipley, McCoy’s prime target at Texas. And kudos also go to Baltimore, who got two quality defensive lineman in Sergio Kindle on the outside, plus Terrence Cody inside.

*No one can say Jacksonville’s not serious about its defensive line. After signing Aaron Kampman in the offseason, the Jags then spent their first four picks on the D-Line. AFC South rival Tennessee upgraded the outside, getting USC receiver Damian Williams and Florida State defensive back Myron Rolle.

*San Diego filled its need for a feature back that can stand up to daily pounding by taking Ryan Mathews from Fresno State. No surprise here—I couldn’t fathom they would go into the season with Darren Sproles at the number one guy.

*There’s nothing I can add to the Tim Tebow conversation you haven’t read a thousand times already. (Personally, I thought the first round was a big reach). Keep an eye on wide receiver Eric Decker out of Minnesota. He was good for 9-10 catches a game until a broken foot ended his season.

That’s a wrap on the NFL draft and also on our spring walk-through. The action on the Notebook Family will be in baseball for the next three months. At the start of August, football previews will begin.

Spring Overview: AFC West

The biggest news--though perhaps the least surprising--in the AFC West was that San Diego cut ties with LaDanian Tomlinson. L.T. was in decline and his production won't be missed anymore, although it is a valid question to wonder if Darren Sproles is physically big enough to handle the role of being a prime back. And to wonder whether the front office acted wisely in letting Michael Turner go to Atlanta two years ago. Shawn Merriman's status is also uncertain, creating a cloud around the franchise that looked on its way to a Super Bowl last year.

Denver continued to clear out either problem children, or players who coach Josh McDaniel can't get along with, depending on your interpretation of things in Mile High. The Broncos followed up last season's trading of Jay Cutler, by dealing receiver Brandon Marshall to Miami. Another franchise with Bill Belichick disciples installed is Kansas City, as GM Scott Pioli shows his committment to creating the New England of the Midwest. He's now got Charlie Weis in as offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel running the defense. In the lineup, the Chiefs added running back Thomas Jones to share carries with Jamaal Charles. There's not a lot of waves in Oakland, which is unusual, but given the state of the team any thing that hints of status quo can't be seen as a positive.

That's a wrap on the division overviews. Just a little something to get your sea legs if you're primary focus is baseball or the NBA & NHL playoffs right now. The draft starts tonight. Be back Wednesday with some thoughts on that.

Spring Overview: AFC South

It was a pretty quiet division in the offseason all things considered. Those things to consider being that Indianapolis is coming off a big disappointment in the Super Bowl and has a closing window of opportunity while Peyton Manning stays in his prime. The Colts re-signed Gary Brackett and let veteran kicker Matt Stover go. Although the defense may get a big boost if playmaking safety Bob Sanders returns healthy. Tennessee and Houston aren't far from being really good themselves, although all the Titans did was re-up LenDale White, the backup to NFL rushing leader Chris Johnson. Houston retained its top linebacker and defensive captain DeMeco Ryan with a big six-year deal and added offensive lineman Wade Smith. Of course just because these teams were relatively quiet isn't a bad sign. It's just modestly surprising in light of how close they all are to reaching different levels of excellence.

It was Jacksonville who made the biggest splash in the offseason, adding passrusher Aaron Kampman, who was left out in the cold after a change in defensive structure in Green Bay, but is one of the best sack artists in the league when playing in a 4-3 scheme. The Jaguars also picked special teams stud Kassim Osgood as they enter a must-win year for head coach Jack Del Rio.

Spring Overview: AFC North

The AFC North already had one of the hottest emerging rivalries in the game last year with Pittsburgh and Baltimore finding their animosity heightened by a conference championship showdown. Then Cincinnati jumped into the picture and stole the division title, promising even more intensity to a division that offers a lot of potential for bad blood in all matchups.

Remember that moment in the 2008 Super Bowl when Ben Roethlisberger found Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone for a victory that gave Pittsburgh it's sixth Super Bowl title? Must seem like ages ago for both players. Big Ben was cleared of sexual assault charges, but as of this writing he may not escape discipline from his team and the league. Holmes was traded to the Jets and then suspended in a 24-hour timespan. How the might have fallen. On the field, the Steelers brought Antwaan
Randle-El back into the fold to be a supporting receiver and return kicks, a role he's much better suited for than the primary one he tried to fill in Washington.

Baltimore slipped from 11-5 in '08 to nine wins last year, but in many ways they impressed me more in 2009. A lot of close games went against them. Furthermore, the 2008 run was one of those "out-of-nowhere" years that happen every year now in the NFL. They are just as often followed by a quick return to obscurity. The fact the Ravens kept it going and made it back to the postseason suggest an organization on sound and consistent footing. They acquired Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals to be a target for Joe Flacco and juice up the passing game.

Cincinnati is the defending champ, but the way they played down the stretch and in a playoff loss to the Jets make it hard to accord them any spring status ahead of their two main rivals. They kept the two free agent lineman they needed
to, in defensive end Frostee Rucker and guard Bobbie Williams. Cleveland has been active at the quarterback position. They cut Derek Anderson, traded for Seneca Wallace and are now talking about trading up in the draft to get Sam Bradford. Which is a lot of attention to give one position when the team is porous across the board

Spring Overview: AFC East

The AFC East seems to be on a mission to import the problem children at wide receiver. The Jets just acquired Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP now in off-the-field trouble. And Miami traded for Brandon Marshall, who didn't play well with others in Denver. Those are just interesting soap opera plots in a division that's shaping up to be very competitive in 2010. New England is still the ruling power until proven otherwise, but they were very vulnerable down the stretch last year. Bill Belichick has responded by taking on increased responsiblity. The change at least disproves the notion that Belichick has lost the hungerm, with his three Super Bowl rings and undefeated regular season already part of his legacy. But even the best coaches can get it in spots where they bite off more they can chew, and this may be it for Belichick. The Patriots also
franchised defensive tackle Vince Wolfork, a move he was not happy with. How will that affect his attitude for the coming year.

The Jets may argue that New England is no longer the ruling power. They may have won the division, but New York won two playoff games to zero for the boys from Foxboro. They're now hoping they can get more big plays out of the offense by pairing Holmes with Braylon Edwards in the all-head case tandem. They added a more stable personality in LaDanian Tomlinson, who's no doubt anxious to show his old employers in San Diego they made a mistake in letting him go.

Miami cut ties with some veterans with noteworthy names--Chad Pennington, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are no longer in South Florida. And they just dealt Ted Ginn to San Francisco. Buffalo's been pretty quiet so far, although that could change--Marshawn Lynch has trade rumors surrounding him. I don't see a lot of reason for excitement in the Bills.
Supposedly they had the opportunity to hire Marty Schottenheimer, but instead opted for Chan Gailey. Big mistake, meaning this franchise will remain faceless and dull for the foreseeable future. Perhaps until the seemingly inevitable move to Toronto takes place.

Spring Overview: NFC West

Kurt Warner has left Arizona and that potentially opens this division up after the Cardinals have won it two straight years. Although I think it deserves to be noted that Arizona was probably a better overall football team last year than in their miracle Super Bowl run of 2008 when they were mediocre most of the year and then caught lightning in a bottle in a upset-ridden playoff ride. Nonetheless, they were still a team built primarily around their quarterback and he must be replaced. That fact alone makes this an intriguing race. The Cardinals re-signed key free agents Steve Breaston (WR) and Joey Porter (LB), although the latter has had serious problems off the field during the offseason.

It's also intriguing because apparently mediocrity loves company. Seattle has fallen on hard times after having been the class of the division for a few years, including their own Super Bowl year of 2005. The Seahawks went out and lured Pete Carroll away from USC. Carroll abandoned ship just when the NCAA posse was coming to town, and that's reason enough to root against him. His spotty record in his previous NFL tenures with the Patriots and Jets give reason enough to be skeptical of his ability to work a magic turnaround that goes anything beyond the .500 level.

The eyes of the NFL are on St. Louis right now, as they get set to have the first pick in the draft. The Rams released Marc Bulger, giving rise to the speculation that they will pass on the elite defensive lineman available and opt for a quarterback, either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen. Personally, I believe that would be a mistake. And San Francisco disappointed me last year. I was on the bandwagon of people who thought they would be a surprise playoff team, but they never quite got it going. The 49ers signed David Carr on the free agent market, making an interesting camp battle between him and Alex Smith, two former #1 draft picks. Their own inability to get their careers going on bad teams are something St. Louis should consider carefully before making the same mistake in a couple weeks.

On Wednesday we'll look shift over to the AFC and start with the East.

Spring Overview: NFC South

New Orleans got the NFC South out of obscurity. Not since 2002, when this division came into being with the current alignment and Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, had the South risen again. The Saints have been pretty quiet in the offseason, so far only signing Alex Brown at defensive end and opting againt retaining safety Darren Sharper, a move I think is risky in the short-term.

Atlanta is the likeliest team to challenge the Saints, and made the eminently logical move of working on the secondary. The re-signed corner Brian Williams and went out added Dunta Robinson, signing the former Houston defensive back to a six-year deal. If Atlanta is improved in the defensive backfield, while New Orleans is weaker, that's a big deal in a division where teams play in domes or warm-weather climates and throwing the ball is easy.

It was a season of change in Carolina, as is to be expected when your season completely collapses. What's not to expected is that the Panthers became the rare team who really did fire the players rather than the coach. They let Jake Delhomme go, and allowed Chicago to sign Julius Peppers in free agency. But head coach John Fox is back. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay made no serious effort to get better via free agency. Let's see what happens in the draft.

Spring Overview: NFC North

Nothing could match the interest level the NFC North generated last offseason, when Brett Favre un-retired for the second time and signed with Minnesota. Favre's status for this season is still undecided, although it's been mercifully free of the soap opera drama that's accompanied his decision every year going all the way back to 2003. But the North has still had a lot of interesting action and it starts in Chicago.

After three straight years out of the playoffs and a very disappointing year in 2009, I was surprised to see Lovie Smith back in the Windy City. The Bears went out and inked Julius Peppers to a big-money free agent deal, a sure sign that another bad year won't be acceptable. Chicago then went out and raided Minnesota, getting running back Chester Taylor, a backup to Adrian Peterson who showed he's more than capable of starting. I also find the signing of backup San Diego tight end Brandon Manumaleuna to be of interest. He didn't get a chance to play behind Antonio Gates, but don't forget that when Michael Turner stepped out of the shadow of LaDanian Tomlinson and got a chance to start in Atlanta, he made the most of it. I suspect San Diego wishes they had him back now, and with Gates' health no longer reliable, I wonder if the same will be the case with Manumaleuna. We'll see if he can produce in Chicago.

Green Bay has also been active, although it's more been in the area of retention. The Packers re-signed defensive lineman Ryan Pickett, and also kept offensive lineman Steve Tauscher and Chad Clifton. But the most notable decision was who they let go. Aaron Kampman was a star not too long ago, but never did acclimate himself to playing in the 3-4 defense that Dom Capers installed last year, and he went to Jacksonville. Really not a bad deal for Green Bay--they're done with a player who didn't fit their scheme anymore, and he's out of the NFC entirely so he can't torment them.

Minnesota's been pretty quiet, as befits a team that has all the pieces in place and is just waiting on Favre. Detroit added some defensive backs and also got WR Nate Burleson away from Seattle. In the name game, they re-signed a guard named Manny Ramirez, ensuring the Lions will at least have someone capable of hitting 35 home runs and picking up 100 ribbies.

Our spring overviews continue again Wednesday with the NFC South.