The Sports Notebook

Can A 9-7 Team Make The AFC Playoffs?

This was the pertinent question last Thursday when Philadelphia played Seattle with both teams at 4-7 and continuing the run of prime-time clunkers, it again is the relevant issue tonight when San Diego faces Jacksonville on Monday Night Football. While the Jaguars are already long gone, at 3-8 and having fired coach Jack Del Rio, the Chargers are at 4-7 and hoping against hope for a miracle run that will prevent their own coach, Norv Turner, from suffering a similar fate. But is it already too late? Let’s look at the AFC playoff picture and see if a 9-7 team making it in is feasible.

You can write off the top wild-card spot, as Pittsburgh & Baltimore are already at 9-3 (if it ends in a tie the Ravens take the AFC North based on a head-to-head sweep) and neither team is going to lose all four remaining games. For the second and last berth the contenders are at 7-5. Here’s the rundown…

*NY Jets: They have a home game against offensively challenged Kansas City next week which is quite winnable. A Week 17 game in Miami is suddenly looking awfully tough. Therefore the key would lie in the two middle games, at Philadelphia and a game with the Giants in their shared home at the Meadowlands. The Jets at least have a shot at taking three out of four and getting to 10 wins. And from the San Diego perspective, even if New York makes it to 9, the Jets won a head-to-head game earlier this year.

*Cincinnati: If the Bengals can lick their wounds from yesterday’s shellacking by Pittsburgh and get back on their feet, they can win a tough home game next week with Houston and another in Week 16 Arizona. A road game in St. Louis is a gimme, and it’s possible that for their final home game with Baltimore the Ravens may be in a position to rest starters. Cincy’s chances of winning three games in this stretch look good.

*Tennessee: Next week’s at home with New Orleans and the finale is in Houston. Between those two are road date in Indianapolis and a home game against Jacksonville, both games Tennessee should win. Again, a good shot at 10-6.

*Denver/Oakland: It’s unlikely both of these teams make it to 10-6 and if only one does, then obviously they would win the AFC West and not be a part of this discussion. The Raiders are the ones with the best chance to falter, going to Green Bay next week, and having a home game with Detroit. And from the perspective of San Diego it’s preferable the Raiders stumble, because the Bolts go to Oakland for the season finale.

The bottom line? If San Diego wins out, they likely finish second in the AFC West, but just as likely find that it’s not good enough. Between the Jets, Bengals and Titans it seems likely that at least one would get to ten wins (and other than the Jets, we’re giving San Diego the benefit of the doubt on tiebreakers). The real question we should be asking is if a 10-6 team would be left on the sidelines come January 8 when the postseason begins. That’s bad news for San Diego, bad news for Norv and general manager A.J. Smith, who may follow him to the unemployment line and bad news for ESPN. Because there’s no reason to watch this game tonight and I think I’ll watch the Bruins-Penguins on the hockey package followed by Rizzoli & Isles on TNT. Nothing like an evening with Boston’s finest.

The NHL's Packed Pacific Division

The NHL’s Pacific Division is packed tight with four of the five teams within two points of first place, but none really part of the Western Conference’s upper crust, as the highest team is tied for fourth in the conference overall and the lowest in a four-way tie for seventh. With the Pacific looking like the NHL’s version of Big East football it at least promises an interesting race through the winter months, so let’s take a snapshot look at the four contenders…

Dallas (31 points): The Stars are in the lead, but they really have no discernible strengths. None of their team stats really stand out, whether it be general offense and defense, power play work or 5-on-5 play. Nor is there any individual who makes you go “Wow”. They need production out of the center position, be it through goals or assists and the goaltending is subpar. It all boils down to the fact that the city has to be glad the Mavericks are coming back on Christmas Day.

Los Angeles (30 points): LA plays great defense and goalie Jonathan Quick is the kind that you could ride in the playoffs. But the “ride the hot goalie” only works if you get at least minimal competence and offense in front of him. The Kings 5-on-5 play is mediocre and their offense terrible. The one positive is that they are well-balanced offensively and they get their goals and assists across the spectrum, from center to the wings, but balance in mediocrity is something that can be done without.

San Jose (29 points): Last year’s runner-up in the Western Conference is the best bet to get on a good run. Center Joe Thornton, one of the league’s best players, is off to a slow start and the team’s penalty kill is absolutely awful. Otherwise, a broader view look at the Sharks shows a team that’s in the upper part of the league both offensively and defensively. Their power play is excellent, as is 5-on-5 play. They’re getting offensive help from Joe Pavelski and Patrick Marleau. As Thornton gets into gear San Jose should move into first place, but they need improved goaltending from Antti Niem if a real run at the Finals is in the cards.

Phoenix (29 points): The Coyotes are a mostly decent team, but their own power play is 29^th in the NHL. They get some good work on the wings from Radim Vrbata and Ray Whitney, but there’s no solid center to run everything through and Mike Smith’s goaltending isn’t bad, but nor is it outstanding. The Coyotes should stay in the playoff chase all year, but it’s tough to see them rising above the bubble from 7^th to 10^th place in the conference (the top 8 make the postseason cut) that they’re in right now.

Key games coming up within the division are Dallas-San Jose late on Thursday night (10:30 PM ET) and Dallas-Los Angeles (10:30 PM ET). You have to be in the local areas or subscribe to the hockey package to see those games, but Phoenix’s visit to Chicago on Monday night will be nationally televised (8 PM ET, Versus) as a fallback option if the San Diego-Jacksonville MNF clunker in the NFL doesn’t float your boat.

Kentucky Supplants UNC As Team To Beat

The first really big college basketball game of this season took place this afternoon and it was worth the hype. #1 Kentucky hung on to a 73-72 win over North Carolina on a last-second blocked shot by Anthony Davis. The narrow loss in Rupp Arena is certainly no shame for Carolina, but there’s also no doubt that the consensus preseason top-ranked team has come back to the pack, while the new #1 from Lexington is another fast-developing team of freshman put out by John Calipari.

Prior to the Kentucky loss, UNC had lost by ten to UNLV and narrowly survived Wisconsin on their home floor earlier this week. Keep in mind this is the same Wisconsin team that lost today at Marquette. In spite of having a talented and good-sized frontcourt, with John Henson, Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes, Carolina was beaten on the glass by both UNLV and Kentucky, with Barnes being the primary culprit. He’s scoring, but he’s got to get more than a couple rebounds a game if his team is to be great.

Kentucky had already beaten Kansas and blown out rebuilding St. John’s coming into today. Returning players Terrence Jones at forward and Doron Lamb at guard are the leaders, but Calipari has quickly integrated rebounder Michael Kidd-Gilchrist into the lineup along with guard Marquis Teague. Every Kentucky starter is scoring in double digits and with the preponderance of underclassmen it’s only reasonable to think this team is just going to get better.

Beyond the ‘Cats and Carolina, here’s a brief look at four other key contenders from the current Top 10. Excluded are Wisconsin, Duke and Florida who all lost this week and UConn, who fell to Central Florida over Thanksgiving weekend…

*Ohio State: No one won more decisively than the Buckeyes, who handed Duke an 85-63 loss in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge on Tuesday. Jared Sullinger, the All-American power forward had 19 points and 10 rebounds, with solid frontcourt support from sophomore DeShaun Thomas. Sophomore guard Aaron Craft has ably stepped into a role that requires him to score more, and off-guard William Buford is shooting the ball well. When they’re on all cylinders, Ohio State is as good as anyone, and they’ll get another chance to prove it next Saturday at Kansas.

*Syracuse: The Orange beat Florida last night and are getting good backcourt play from Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine, along with sophomore Dion Walters. That’s the key for this team because forward Kris Joseph will keep them competitive on the glass.

*Louisville: Rick Pitino’s team joined Syracuse in winning a Big East-SEC Challenge game last night, knocking off Vanderbilt. Swingman Kyle Kuric and point guard Peyton Siva are each playing well, but they has been the work of freshman Chase Behanan, who’s hitting the glass and grabbed 10 rebounds in Friday’s overtime win.

*I like Baylor a lot, although they haven’t played anyone yet, and the best they’ll see in non-conference play are games against current Top 25 teams in West Virginia and Mississippi State. The Bears are a big lineup, with four starters going 6’7” or bigger and all of them go the glass. The cautionary note is that when teams like this don’t get good playmaking, they grind to a halt. An example would be North Carolina early last year and all through 2010, as they played NIT-caliber basketball. Then Kendall Marshall took over and suddenly the Heels were one of the nation’s best. The same can happen for Baylor this year if Pierre Jackson runs the show effectively.

The college football regular season is literally in its closing hours as this post goes online and basketball will start to take center stage. The teams above head up the early contenders.

NFL Sunday TV Previews

We’re into the December stretch drive in the NFL and here’s a look at how the TV slate for Week 13 shakes out on Sunday..

EARLY

Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (1 PM ET, CBS)
The Bengals are one game back of the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North and one game ahead of the Jets and Broncos for the last playoff spot, so this game decides what Cincinnati is playing for the rest of the way. Pittsburgh is one of four teams tied atop the entire AFC at 8-3 (along with Baltimore, New England and Houston), but they looked awful offensively on Sunday night in Kansas City. You still have to lean Pittsburgh’s way here. It’s a lot to ask of rookie Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton to come in here and win and even though I expect the Bengal defense to take away the running game and make this a good one, the Steelers and Big Ben make enough plays to scrape out a win.

Denver-Minnesota (1 PM ET, Fox)
It’s a sign of how much Tebow-Mania, pro and con, is sweeping the NFL that Fox would choose to show this game, rather than Atlanta-Houston, to most of the country. Denver’s formula has been simple—run the ball, play tough defense and let Tebow pull it out at the end with his first few good plays of the entire game. One thing that has to be said for the quarterback though, is that he doesn’t turn the ball over and as long as being on the road in the Metrodome doesn’t bother him, that will be enough here. Denver can’t pull away from the Vikings, but the running game and defense can deliver another win here.

Atlanta-Houston: The Texans have to try and survive the rest of the way with makeshift work at quarterback, from third-stringer T.J. Yates to newly signed Kellen Clemens. With the return of Andre Johnson at wideout this should have been when they made their move and this would have been a great game. The Falcons are nicked up themselves, with Michael Turner and Julio Jones listed as questionable, but questionable in the NFL usually means you play, and it won’t take many points to beat the Texans this week.  

Oakland-Miami: The Dolphins have found their rhythm and are looking like a playoff team, even if the 3-8 record says they took too long to get started. Oakland is playing well and has good offensive balance. A good game comes down to the end, but Miami with homefield advantage and a long prep week after Thanksgiving, pulls it out. A Raider loss coupled with a Bronco win turns the AFC West into a dead heat.

NY Jets-Washington: The Redskin offense has come to life, with 47 points the last two weeks. It’s less about Rex Grossman replacing John Beck and more about Santana Moss and Fred Davis being back in the lineup. a

Carolina-Tampa Bay: The Panthers are right behind the Dolphins in the area of quality 3-8 teams. The Buccaneers are 4-7 and playing worse than that. Cam Newton continues Carolina’s growth with a road win in the NFC South.


Indianapolis-New England: Seriously?

Kansas City-Chicago: I like this one as an upset spot. The Kansas City defense stepped it up with a great game against Pittsburgh on Sunday night and now facing a Cutler-less Bears offense that doesn’t have great options at receiver to begin with, I look for KC to stack the box, stop Forte on the ground and make this another ugly low-scoring game like Sunday night. Tyler Palko improved from his first to second start, and even modest improvement here steals the road upset for the Chiefs.

Tennessee-Buffalo: Chris Johnson got back into the flow running the ball against Tampa Bay with 190 yards and even though the Bills came up with a credible loss against the Jets, the home team is still looking too dysfunctional right now and the Titans win a close one to keep the heat on Houston in the AFC South.

LATE

Green Bay-NY Giants (4:15 PM ET, Fox)
The folks in Green Bay see this as the last real hurdle to going 16-0, with the remaining tough games (Oakland, Chicago, Detroit) all being at home. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman are on hand for this one and the big thing the Giants have going for them is to create a lot of problems with their defensive front four against a mediocre Packer offensive line. Detroit had that same advantage on Thanksgiving and they did slow Aaron Rodgers’ offense to a manageable pace. The problem is that the Green Bay defense seems to be rounding into championship form themselves and Eli Manning can’t make mistakes, lest ballhawking corners Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson turn those mistakes into points. Without a steady running game and good pass protection, Green Bay isn’t a sure thing, but they just have so many playmakers in the passing game and on defense that I can’t go against them anymore.

Baltimore-Cleveland: Baltimore has the much better team and a long week to get ready after Thanksgiving, but they also have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. Cleveland gave Cincinnati a spirited run last week and will do the same here. Baltimore wins, but it’s closer than the 6.5 pointspread.

Dallas-Arizona:  The Cowboys are on a roll and even allowing for their tendency to slip up at unexpected times, it would take a lot of Tony Romo mistakes to turn this one into a game. Beanie Wells can cause problems for the ‘Boys on the ground, but there’s not enough airpower in Arizona.

St. Louis-San Francisco: The 49ers are rested, on a 10-day week, hungry after a loss to Baltimore , at home and facing a bad team. Enough said.

SUNDAY NITE

Detroit-New Orleans (8:20 ET, NBC)
If the Lions are going to win this game Matthew Stafford will have to play his best game of the year. The only way to beat New Orleans at home is if Drew Brees tosses a couple up for grabs and he’s not going to do that unless you can force him into a scoring race and take away the running game with Mark Ingram. Detroit’s chances of doing the latter have decreased severely with the suspension of Ndamakong Suh in the middle, and that also eliminates any pressure up the gut. It’s more likely that it’s Stafford whose forced into miscues and even if Brees doesn’t repeat his Monday Night dominance, it’s more than enough to keep the Saints atop the NFC South.

Championship Weekend Previews

It’s Championship Weekend in college football with six conference championship games scheduled over Friday night and Saturday, and the Big 12 having a de facto title game in their regular season finale. Here’s the Notebook outlook on each game…

FRIDAY

MAC: Ohio-Northern Illinois (7 PM ET, ESPN2, Ford Field in Detroit)
Tonight offers a chance to watch NIU’s all-everything quarterback Chandler Harnish. Skilled both running and throwing the ball, Harnish was the MAC’s Offensive Player of the Year and no one else was even close. Ohio has a good quarterback of their own in Tyler Tettleton. While he’s not as versatile with his feet, the Bobcats do have a better conventional running game with Donte Harden in the backfield. The coaching matchup is intriguing. Ohio’s Frank Solich has rebuilt this program since being dismissed by Nebraska, but he’s yet to win the conference championship. NIU’s Dave Doeren is on the other side of the spectrum, and up-and-coming former Wisconsin assistant looking to make a quick splash. Northern Illinois did not play in two home games to close the season, though they escaped both times, but I look for Harnish to put on a show in Ford Field tonight and give the Huskies the championship.

Pac-12: UCLA-Oregon (8 PM ET, Fox)
The Pac-12 awards homefield advantage for its championship game, so even the remotest chance UCLA might have had of upsetting the Ducks is out the window. The pointspread on this game is up at 32 and I can see Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and that fast-paced Chip Kelly offense to cover it by halftime. The Bruins are only in this game at 6-6, because USC (10-2) is on probation and no one else was left in the South Division. For UCLA, it’s Rose Bowl or no bowl as far as their postseason hopes, but with coach Rick Neuheisel out the door, I look for the Bruins to have a hard time keeping their focus when things go against them, which they will, early and often.

SATURDAY

Conference USA: Southern Miss-Houston (Noon ET, ABC)
Another homefield advantage championship game, this one will be in Houston and is a good example of why more conferences should look at moving their games off of neutral sites. You give a reward for the best league record and you protect your top teams as they play for BCS position. Principle and pragmatism work as one. Houston is looking to lock up a major bowl bid with a win here and on a neutral field it would be tough. Southern Miss hasn’t played well down the stretch, losing to UAB, but quarterback Austin Dantin is underrated and this is a program with steady track record of success. But I doubted Case Keenum, Patrick Edwards and Houston a week ago against Tulsa and after a 48-16 win I won’t make the same mistake here. The Cougar defense showed their stuff last Friday and they’ll play well again here, securing a title.

SEC: LSU-Georgia (4 PM ET, CBS, Georgia Dome in Atlanta)
We’re being assured that even though LSU has all but clinched its berth in the BCS National Championship Game, they’ll still be going all-out. We’re being assured that even if Georgia wins it makes perfect sense to have two teams that couldn’t win the SEC play for the national title over the Bulldogs. If the assurances on the former are right, we won’t need to worry about the latter. The Bulldogs can keep this game close with Aaron Murray at quarterback and if Isaiah Crowell’s persistent ankle problems are okay. But LSU is too good defensively and their ability to create points on D and special teams will give this game a “closer than the score made it sound” kind of feel. Let’s call it 27-10 for the Tigers.

Big 12: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State (8 PM ET, ABC)
If Oklahoma State can’t get a big win over the Sooners this year, they need to give up the fight. They’ve got homefield advantage and injuries over the course of the season have limited Oklahoma’s explosive capacities offensively, namely the loss of running back Dominique Whaley and receiver Ryan Broyles. If the Cowboys tandem of Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon gets rolling, OU can’t keep up. And I expect Weeden to answer the bell, make his Heisman case and make a strong appeal for voters to spare us an SEC rematch and give Okie State a shot at the national title.

ACC: Virginia Tech-Clemson (8 PM ET, ESPN, BankofAmerica Stadium in Charlotte)
Virginia Tech lost this matchup at home in a decisive 23-3 fashion back in October. But the Hokies are coming on strong, with sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas clicking. Thomas has thrown 23 TD passes against only two interceptions down the stretch and running back David Wilson is one of the best in the country. Clemson has all the weapons to move the ball against that stout Tech defense, but the Tigers have looked dysfunctional of late. Tajh Boyd played himself out of both Heisman and ACC Player of the Year discussion and Andre Ellington hasn’t been a factor running the ball. I think this game will be good, because I can’t look past that October result too much, but there are also seems little doubt that the Hokies aren’t just the hotter team right now, they have really come together and are capable of playing like this on a sustained basis. Frank Beamer wins his third straight ACC title.

Wisconsin-Michigan State (8 PM ET, Fox, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis)
The rematch of an extraordinary October game in East Lansing where Michigan State won on a last-play Hail Mary pass. Both offenses can move the ball. Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins will throw the ball well in the climate-controlled environment. Wisconsin’s running game is better, with hard-charging Heisman hopeful Montee Ball, but the Spartans are much better on special teams. They blocked a punt for a touchdown in the October win and Wisconsin has had coverage issues all year long. I won’t make a pick in this game because I’m a Wisconsin fan, but I’ll offer this sobering thought—the Badgers haven’t won a close game all year. Now if you can win ten blowouts that says something good about your team, but with the issues they have on special teams I’m hard-pressed to say that 0-2 in close ones is bad luck.

The final BCS Standings and the bowl matchups will then be announced on Sunday.

Can A 9-7 Team Make The NFC Playoffs?

The only way tonight’s NFL matchup between Philadelphia-Seattle (8:15 ET, NFL) is remotely interesting is if there’s some way for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs out of the NFC. Both the Seahawks and Eagles are already at 4-7. Since the issue of a 9-7 entrant affects not only these two teams, but fellow 4-7 squads in Washington and Tampa, the Notebook takes a brief look at the leaders in the NFC playoff race to see who might fade…

Atlanta (7-4): The Falcons are playing well right now and it’s not realistic to think they’ll fold up now. A potentially tough road game at Houston on Sunday turned easy as the Texans are down their #3 quarter. Atlanta has home games with Jacksonville and Tampa. For the sake of the discussion, let’s assume they’ll grab one wild-card berth (and perhaps catch New Orleans for the NFC South).

Chicago (7-4): With Jay Cutler out for the season the road suddenly got interesting. Caleb Hanie was out of his element in Oakland, throwing three interceptions and now the Bears get a Chiefs defense that’s playing well and nearly upset Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Bears also have to go to Denver and Green Bay and even a Week 17 date in Minnesota has spoiler game written all over it. The Bears are in trouble. Is it wrong to hope they call up Brett Favre and set him up for Christmas night in Lambeau? Yes, I thought it was.

Detroit (7-4): The two-game suspension of Ndamakong Suh for his dirty play in Thanksgiving Day’s game against Green Bay was justified and delivers a big blow to the Lions, who rely on their defensive front. They still have Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch on the edges, but gut pressure won’t be coming these next two games. One of them is Sunday night in New Orleans. Detroit also visits Oakland. In the season finale they go to Green Bay, who may play everybody if they have a chance at 16-0. The Lions are in trouble.  

NY Giants (6-5): Any team that’s 6-5 at this point can certainly settle for 9-7 and this whole discussion actually might be more relevant to the Giants than the two teams playing tonight. New York’s coming off three straight losses, their defense looked terrible in New Orleans on Monday and now they have Aaron Rodgers and the Packers coming to town. New York still has two games with Dallas and they still go to play the Jets. The two games with the Cowboys mean that if the Giants surge they’ll likely win the NFC East and get out of this whole discussion.

What it all adds up to is that it looks like a 9-7 team can make it to the #6 seed in the NFC. Of course even when you settle that, there are still tiebreakers (Atlanta and Chicago both beat Philadelphia). And there’s that other factor which asks how a team that’s taken 11 weeks to win four times is suddenly about to win five times in five weeks. Which brings us back to tonight’s matchup.

Vince Young is expected to start again tonight for Philadelphia, but he is missing receiver Jeremy Maclin. Seattle will be missing its top threat in Sidney Rice, who’s been sidelined for the year with a concussion. The Seahawks have shown some signs of life, but lost a home game on Sunday to the Redskins. Philadelphia’s defense looked terrible in the loss to New England, but tonight Trent Cole and Jason Babin should be able to generate enough pressure, force Tavaris Jackson to throw three interceptions and enable the Birds to win an ugly game that in no way is worth turning off college football to watch.

Big East Football's Wild Finish

It wouldn’t be Big East football if it wasn’t wild and woolly down to the end. The conference gets the ESPN spotlight this evening when West Virginia goes to South Florida (8 PM ET) and has two more nationally televised games on Saturday with Syracuse-Pitt (Noon, ESPN) and UConn-Cincinnati (Noon, ESPN2). Three teams have shots at the conference’s automatic BCS berth (likely in the Orange against the Virginia Tech-Clemson winner), yet none control their own destiny. Every team is still bowl eligible and seven of the eight could make it.

Let’s start with tonight’s game and the championship picture. Louisville (5-2, 7-5 overall) is one of two teams that have completed its season (4-3, 8-4 Rutgers being the other). The Cardinals hold a ½ game lead on West Virginia (4-2, 8-3) and Cincinnati (4-2, 8-3). If this race ends in a three-way tie than West Virginia will win, based on higher BCS ranking. So even if they win tonight, the Mountaineers still need to root for a Cincinnati win on Saturday. By the end of tonight, the Bearcats will either be out or will control their destiny—they win a two-way tie with Louisville based on a head-to-head win. Louisville is guaranteed to still have a rooting interest in Saturday. As long as Cincinnati loses, the ‘Ville wins either a tiebreaker with West Virginia, or would obviously claim the crown outright if both teams lose. Got all that?

The three contenders, along with Rutgers are already locked up for bowl eligibility. The remaining four are all 5-6 and face win-and-you’re-in spots. South Florida’s back is to the wall tonight. UConn faces the same situation on Saturday. Syracuse-Pitt is a head-to-head battle for a bowl spot. The Big East has six bowl tie-ins, including the BCS, but keep in mind that Notre Dame is included in their pecking order and at 8-4 the Irish are in good shape to get the Champs Sports Bowl nod, the first non-BCS game. So depending whether extra bids open up at the bottom of other leagues, the Big East may have seven eligible teams fighting for five available slots.

That’s the landscape, now let’s get to the matchups…

West Virginia-South Florida: I expected more from WVA last week in their narrow escape over Pitt 21-20. The defense did come up big at the end with three sacks on the last Panther drive, but given how poor Pitt’s pass protection is, I would not expect that to repeat itself. Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith is the best skill position player in this conference, both throwing and running the ball and I expect him to find a way to pull it out against a Bulls team that’s been up and down all year. But this one will be a nail-biter and a good way to get the final weekend of the regular season kicked off tonight.

Syracuse-Pitt: The Panthers have played their best football in the second half of the season, even given the pass protection issues noted and the October loss of running back Ray Graham for the season. Head coach Todd Graham deserves a lot of credit for getting this team to improve in its first year. Syracuse lost badly at home last week to a Cincinnati team playing without starting quarterback Zach Collaros. So who am I taking? It was going to be Pitt, but then I remembered a key life lesson I learned in eight years spent in the Steel City—Pitt football always rips your heart out. Somehow, ‘Cuse QB Ryan Nassib will have his best game of the year (realistic), Pitt counterpart Tino Sunseri will be under pressure all day long and make mistakes (realistic) and the Panthers find a way to kick a bowl bid away.

UConn-Cincinnati: As mentioned, the Bearcat stepped up big with Collaros out and kept their title hopes alive. UConn came through and derailed Rutgers’ title hopes last week though and I’m looking for the Huskies to do the same here. They’ve won three of their last five, all in conference play, and can control tempo with 1,000 yard back Lyle McCombs running the ball. Call a road upset for UConn.

My scenario sends Louisville on the Orange Bowl. A 7-5 BCS participant, along with the realignment issues damaging the league will hopefully be the final death knell for this league’s preferential treatment in major bowl selection.

UNLV Leads Way In Weak Mountain West Hoops

UNLV captured the attention of the nation when they upset top-ranked North Carolina and it’s quite likely that was no fluke. The Rebels look to be the class of the Mountain West and a team that can be in the national discussion all year, the way BYU and San Diego State were a year ago when both got high NCAA Tournament seeds and then won two games on the floor in March. Rebel forward Chase Stanback is the leader of the team, as was the case against North Carolina when he scored 28 points. An experienced backcourt is headed up by Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall. The key issues are consistent frontcourt play, a problem they share with most teams in college basketball and the need to replace Tre’Von Willis at guard. Solving those problems makes Vegas a national contender. If they don’t solve them they’re still a solid team and the favorite in this conference.

BYU has gone independent and San Diego State loses its top four starters from last year’s team, so while the Aztecs have made a nice early splash in beating Arizona and USC, losing only to potential Big 12 powerhouse Baylor, it’s tough to consider Steve Fischer’s team a viable championship contender. The honor of challenging UNLV likely falls to New Mexico, where Steve Alford tries to bring the Lobos back from a tough year in 2011. While he loses his top player in guard Dairese Gary, New Mexico still has 6’9” forward Drew Gordon, a potent scorer and rebounder and a solid backcourt in Philip McDonald and Kendall Williams. Beyond that, there is little else in the MWC, as this rundown demonstrates…

*Colorado State could make a run at the NIT with its guard tandem of Wes Eikmeier and Dorian Green, but there’s not enough help up front and no reason to think the incoming talent base will be anything special in Fort Collins.

*Wyoming’s best players were lost to transfer, leaving guard Francisco Cruz a lonely Cowboy in Laramie.

*Boise State has 11 new players to break in as they start play in the Mountain West. No word on whether one of them is a kicker on the side.

*Air Force lost its senior leadership and production from last year and the Falcons weren’t that good to begin with.

*TCU has a top assist man in point guard Hank Thorns, but what’s a ball distributor without scorers to get the rock too? The Horned Frogs need a lot of help and have little in the way of solutions.

The bottom line? The Mountain West not only has a troubled future in the era of realignments, but it’s present beyond UNLV and maybe New Mexico looks none too spiffy either.  

Atlantic 10 Basketball Makes November Noise

The Atlantic 10 falls somewhere between the mid-majors and the power conferences in college basketball. The league consistently gets multiple NCAA bids, so it’s at the very least on a par with the Pac-12, but there’s also no doubt it’s not seen as even a mid-level power conference, along the lines of the SEC. Whether the league can change that perception for the better this year is anyone’s guess, but they’re off to a good start. Xavier beat highly regarded Vanderbilt on the road. Dayton, a team without big expectations, beat Minnesota and Wake Forest, comparable opponents in their own conferences. And Rick Majerus’ St. Louis Billikens have topped them all, winning the 76 Classic in Anaheim over Thanksgiving weekend. St. Louis beat Boston College, Villanova and Oklahoma in succession, and also has a non-conference win over Washington. There are four separate BCS conferences Majerus’ team knocked off and it signals the potential for a good year in the A-10.

St. Louis is off to the hot start, but they will need some consistent frontcourt help to go along with guards Kyle Cassidy and Mike McCall. Xavier, the perennial power of this league has no such concerns. With seven-footer Kenny Frease manning the middle and still not at the ceiling of his potential in his senior year, the Musketeers have the chance to be a great team, as Frease combines with A-10 Player of the Year Tu Holloway in the backcourt. Off-guard Mark Lyons can take some of the pressure off Holloway and with Xavier it’s not about whether they are the favorite in the Atlantic 10, it’s about whether they can make a major splash on a national level. If the incoming freshman can provide a little depth, they have a chance.

Temple is off to a slow start, with a loss at Bowling Green going along with a more respectable defeat at Purdue, but the Owls should bounce back thanks to excellent perimeter depth. Juan Fernandez is a quality shooter, and he’s joined by Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt. The key to Temple’s success will be the play of 6’11” senior Michael Eric in the post. He has to assert himself on a nightly basis for the Owls to rise above the NCAA bubble.

The Notebook would regard Xavier as a clear favorite, Temple as an NCAA team and St. Louis has to be given some respect after what they’ve done on the floor. Duquesne has a chance for a run at March Madness. I thought the Dukes would be better last year, and they need help up front, but they have quality sophomore guards back in T.J. McConnell and Mike Talley to go with a good swingman in B.J. Monteiro. A date with intra-city rival Pitt on Wednesday promises an interesting test. Beyond this though, there is some serious rebuilding to do. Consider the following…

*Richmond, a part of the league’s upper-crust and regular NCAA participant, loses outstanding players in guard Kevin Anderson and forward Justin Harper, not to mention the supporting cast.

*UMass loses leading scorer Anthony Gurley and with head coach Derek Kellogg feeling some heat to do more than go .500, it could be a long season in Amherst.

*Charlotte has a top forward in Chris Braswell, but almost nothing else and second-year coach Alan Major is beginning the rebuilding process after a horrible year in 2011.

*LaSalle lost its best player, center Aaric Murray when  he transferred to West Virginia.

*Fordham has another one of the league’s better forwards in Chris Gaston, but he’s going to get lonely there in the Bronx trying to carry the Rams by himself.

*Dayton’s been a good, albeit frustrating team for their fans as they tease in November and December and then fade in league play. New coach Archie Miller has to rebuild the team around forward Chris Johnson, a good scorer and rebounder.

*George Washington has the same combo of a new head coach—Mike Lonergan in this case—and one good building block. Here it’s Tony Taylor, one of the A-10’s best point guards after Holloway.

*Rhode Island lost everyone from last year and now they’re losing games left and right, already off to a 1-5 start.

Is anyone else left? St. Bonaventure and St. Joe’s have hope for good seasons. The Bonnies have 6’9” post man Andrew Nicholson, one of the best players in the league and he’s got help up front with Da’Quan Cook, and swingman Michael Davenport. They could be a real darkhorse, and I’d be higher on them, but an early loss to Cleveland State makes me worry that perhaps this program hasn’t reached the maturity level to win consistently. St. Joe’s has run with the big boys in the past (recall in 2004 they were the #1 seed in the East and reached a regional final) and has gone through a rough patch of late. Phil Martinelli rebuilt with underclassmen last year, finished the season on an up note and I would expect them to fight their way back to NIT level this season.

As for the NCAA Tournament, it looks like a Xavier-Temple-St. Louis league, but the positive is that trio could make a national splash.

Oklahoma State Deserves A Chance

The race for the BCS National Championship Game on January 9 in New Orleans looks all but settled. Alabama appears locked into the #2 spot at worst, and LSU’s hold on #1 is so strong that BCS experts it’s virtually impossible to imagine them slipping below #2 even if they lose the SEC Championship Game. The Notebook protests both situations.

I’m a believer that a team must win its conference title to compete for the national championship and I think the logic behind it speaks for itself. I have no problem with a two-loss Georgia team playing for #1 and if it were up to me, Georgia-LSU on Saturday would be winner-take-all for a spot in the title game.

But on the flip side, why should LSU have to risk its position on Saturday night while Nick Saban and Alabama can sit comfortably at home and just start preparing for the rematch with the Tigers? Here, it’s not even about my ideological rejection of teams that don’t win their leagues. I simply don’t see why Alabama is just automatically presumed to be the undisputed second-best team in the country. They lost at home while not scoring a touchdown in the process. Their best non-conference win at Penn State was decisive, 27-11, but they handle the Nittany Lions nearly as well as Wisconsin did on Saturday in a 45-7 blasting. If you want to argue that Alabama, thanks to their stout defense is the #2 team in the country, I can certainly see the argument. But to argue that this status is so far beyond a reasonable doubt that no other team should be given a crack at LSU is something not rooted in reality. And for that reason, Oklahoma State should get first dibs on the second spot in New Orleans.

I find it astonishing that media focus on Oklahoma State’s one loss has only been on the fact that it came as a 28-point favorite over Iowa State. There’s no reference made to the fact the Cowboys had to play that game the very day they heard about the tragic plane crash that took the life of the women’s basketball coach and their assistants. The team spent most of the day grieving and it remains a mystery to me as to why the powers-that-be didn’t postpone the game. It was scheduled on a Friday night on ESPN and the decent thing to do would be at least push it back a day, perhaps even to Sunday. They didn’t, Okie State looked lethargic and lost in overtime. They deserved first dibs on a second chance and the ensuing run of upsets opened the door. If it were up to me, Oklahoma State’s game against Oklahoma would be to punch the Cowboys’ ticket to New Orleans, with Virginia Tech next in line, at least among BCS conferences. I’m also sympathetic to the notion of giving unbeaten Houston a crack at LSU, but that’s so far beyond the scope of reality that I’ll leave it for another day.

That’s where the Notebook stands. In the real world, this is how I’d project the BCS games shaking out…

BCS National Championship: LSU-Alabama
Fiesta: Oklahoma State-Houston
Sugar : Stanford-Michigan
Rose: Wisconsin-Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech-West Virginia